{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,29]],"date-time":"2026-09-29T11:01:14Z","timestamp":1790679674317,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":41,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,14]],"date-time":"2026-07-14T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1783987200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,14]],"date-time":"2026-07-14T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1783987200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Pain Ther"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,10]]},"DOI":"10.1007\/s40122-026-00859-2","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,14]],"date-time":"2026-07-14T16:32:12Z","timestamp":1784046732000},"page":"1377-1400","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Driving Mechanisms and Future Trends of Migraine and Tension-Type Headache Burden in G20 Countries: A Comparative Analysis Utilizing Decomposition Analysis and Explainable Machine Learning"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"15","author":[{"given":"Zhuochen","family":"Chen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Guifen","family":"Fan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kai","family":"Dai","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xueting","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xu","family":"Cheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jianhong","family":"Ye","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jun","family":"Peng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,14]]},"reference":[{"key":"859_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Headache Classification Committee of the International Headache Society (IHS). The International Classification of Headache Disorders, 3rd edition. Cephalalgia 2018;38(1):1\u2013211.","DOI":"10.1177\/0333102417738202"},{"key":"859_CR2","unstructured":"Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990\u20132021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024;403(10440):2133\u20132161."},{"issue":"1","key":"859_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"137","DOI":"10.1186\/s10194-020-01208-0","volume":"21","author":"TJ Steiner","year":"2020","unstructured":"Steiner TJ, Stovner LJ, Jensen R, Uluduz D, Katsarava Z. Migraine remains second among the world\u2019s causes of disability, and first among young women: findings from GBD2019. J Headache Pain. 2020;21(1):137.","journal-title":"J Headache Pain"},{"issue":"10283","key":"859_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1485","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)32160-7","volume":"397","author":"M Ashina","year":"2021","unstructured":"Ashina M, Katsarava Z, Do TP, Buse DC, Pozo-Rosich P, \u00d6zge A, et\u00a0al. Migraine: epidemiology and systems of care. Lancet. 2021;397(10283):1485\u201395.","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"1","key":"859_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"49","DOI":"10.1186\/s10194-025-01990-9","volume":"26","author":"Y Zhao","year":"2025","unstructured":"Zhao Y, Yi Y, Zhou H, Pang Q, Wang J. The burden of migraine and tension-type headache in Asia from 1990 to 2021. J Headache Pain. 2025;26(1):49.","journal-title":"J Headache Pain"},{"issue":"1","key":"859_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"104","DOI":"10.1186\/s10194-025-02048-6","volume":"26","author":"YX Wang","year":"2025","unstructured":"Wang YX, Lu GS, Zhao JJ, Dai W, Zheng N, Yao GE, et\u00a0al. The burden of migraine and predictions in the Asia-Pacific region, 1990\u20132021: a comparative analysis of China, South Korea, Japan, and Australia. J Headache Pain. 2025;26(1):104.","journal-title":"J Headache Pain"},{"issue":"18","key":"859_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1874","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2021.1640","volume":"325","author":"MS Robbins","year":"2021","unstructured":"Robbins MS. Diagnosis and management of headache: a review. JAMA. 2021;325(18):1874\u201385.","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"issue":"6566","key":"859_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"379","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abm8724","volume":"374","author":"P Krishtel","year":"2021","unstructured":"Krishtel P, Hassan F. Share vaccine know-how. Science. 2021;374(6566):379.","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"12","key":"859_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/brb3.71071","volume":"15","author":"R Yang","year":"2025","unstructured":"Yang R, Chen W, Sun M, Feng H, Chen B, Luo X, et\u00a0al. Migraine disease burden and trends (1990\u20132021): a multidimensional comparative analysis of china and other G20 countries. Brain Behav. 2025;15(12):e71071.","journal-title":"Brain Behav"},{"issue":"3","key":"859_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e159","DOI":"10.1016\/S2468-2667(19)30019-2","volume":"4","author":"AY Chang","year":"2019","unstructured":"Chang AY, Skirbekk VF, Tyrovolas S, Kassebaum NJ, Dieleman JL. Measuring population ageing: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet Public Health. 2019;4(3):e159\u201367.","journal-title":"Lancet Public Health"},{"key":"859_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"04093","DOI":"10.7189\/jogh.12.04093","volume":"12","author":"JY Xi","year":"2022","unstructured":"Xi JY, Lin X, Hao YT. Measurement and projection of the burden of disease attributable to population aging in 188 countries, 1990\u20132050: a population-based study. J Glob Health. 2022;12:04093.","journal-title":"J Glob Health"},{"issue":"1","key":"859_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"110","DOI":"10.1186\/s10194-023-01648-4","volume":"24","author":"R Ge","year":"2023","unstructured":"Ge R, Chang J, Cao Y. Headache disorders and relevant sex and socioeconomic patterns in adolescents and young adults across 204 countries and territories: an updated global analysis. J Headache Pain. 2023;24(1):110.","journal-title":"J Headache Pain"},{"issue":"1","key":"859_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"56","DOI":"10.1038\/s42256-019-0138-9","volume":"2","author":"SM Lundberg","year":"2020","unstructured":"Lundberg SM, Erion G, Chen H, DeGrave A, Prutkin JM, Nair B, et\u00a0al. From local explanations to global understanding with explainable AI for trees. Nat Mach Intell. 2020;2(1):56\u201367.","journal-title":"Nat Mach Intell"},{"key":"859_CR14","unstructured":"Burden of 375 diseases and injuries, risk-attributable burden of 88 risk factors, and healthy life expectancy in 204 countries and territories, including 660 subnational locations, 1990\u20132023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023. Lancet 2025;406(10513):1873\u20131922."},{"key":"859_CR15","unstructured":"Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) protocol. https:\/\/www.healthdata.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2024-06\/GBD%20Protocol%20060424.pdf"},{"key":"859_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1556981","volume":"13","author":"J Wang","year":"2025","unstructured":"Wang J, Guan X, Tao N. GBD: incidence rates and prevalence of anxiety disorders, depression and schizophrenia in countries with different SDI levels, 1990-2021. Front Public Health. 2025;13:1556981.","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"key":"859_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/nu16183217","author":"D Liang","year":"2024","unstructured":"Liang D, Wang L, Liu S, Li S, Zhou X, Xiao Y, et\u00a0al. Global incidence of diarrheal diseases-an update using an interpretable predictive model based on XGBoost and SHAP: a systematic analysis. Nutrients. 2024. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/nu16183217.","journal-title":"Nutrients"},{"issue":"1","key":"859_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"297","DOI":"10.1007\/s40122-024-00690-7","volume":"14","author":"L Dong","year":"2025","unstructured":"Dong L, Dong W, Jin Y, Jiang Y, Li Z, Yu D. The global burden of migraine: a 30-year trend review and future projections by age, sex, country, and region. Pain Ther. 2025;14(1):297\u2013315.","journal-title":"Pain Ther"},{"issue":"11","key":"859_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1196","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(18)30386-3","volume":"6","author":"ME Kruk","year":"2018","unstructured":"Kruk ME, Gage AD, Arsenault C, Jordan K, Leslie HH, Roder-DeWan S, et\u00a0al. High-quality health systems in the Sustainable Development Goals era: time for a revolution. Lancet Glob Health. 2018;6(11):e1196\u2013252.","journal-title":"Lancet Glob Health"},{"key":"859_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fneur.2025.1575705","volume":"16","author":"Y Rui","year":"2025","unstructured":"Rui Y, Wu B, Li Q, Zhang K. Global trends and regional disparities in the burden of headache disorders, 1990-2021: a comprehensive analysis of the global burden of disease study. Front Neurol. 2025;16:1575705.","journal-title":"Front Neurol"},{"issue":"3","key":"859_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.advnut.2025.100384","volume":"16","author":"D Liang","year":"2025","unstructured":"Liang D, Wang L, Zhong P, Lin J, Chen L, Chen Q, et\u00a0al. Perspective: global burden of iodine deficiency: insights and projections to 2050 using XGBoost and SHAP. Adv Nutr. 2025;16(3):100384.","journal-title":"Adv Nutr"},{"issue":"6","key":"859_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"843","DOI":"10.1097\/EDE.0000000000001534","volume":"33","author":"G Choi","year":"2022","unstructured":"Choi G, Buckley JP, Kuiper JR, Keil AP. Log-transformation of independent variables: must we? Epidemiology. 2022;33(6):843\u201353.","journal-title":"Epidemiology"},{"issue":"3","key":"859_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"586","DOI":"10.1212\/CON.0000000000000983","volume":"27","author":"A Recober","year":"2021","unstructured":"Recober A. Pathophysiology of migraine. Continuum. 2021;27(3):586\u201396.","journal-title":"Continuum"},{"issue":"1","key":"859_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s10194-023-01614-0","volume":"24","author":"D Onan","year":"2023","unstructured":"Onan D, Younis S, Wellsgatnik WD, Farham F, Andru\u0161kevi\u010dius S, Abashidze A, et\u00a0al. Debate: differences and similarities between tension-type headache and migraine. J Headache Pain. 2023;24(1):92.","journal-title":"J Headache Pain"},{"issue":"1","key":"859_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-024-53816-4","volume":"14","author":"G Yontar","year":"2024","unstructured":"Yontar G, Ozgan E. Early maladaptive schemas in female patients with migraine and tension-type headache. Sci Rep. 2024;14(1):3550.","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"859_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"122","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejpn.2023.01.002","volume":"42","author":"F Ursitti","year":"2023","unstructured":"Ursitti F, Valeriani M. Migraine in childhood: gender differences. Eur J Paediatr Neurol. 2023;42:122\u20135.","journal-title":"Eur J Paediatr Neurol"},{"key":"859_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"309","DOI":"10.1016\/bs.irn.2022.07.003","volume":"164","author":"ER Lebedeva","year":"2022","unstructured":"Lebedeva ER. Sex and age differences in migraine treatment and management strategies. Int Rev Neurobiol. 2022;164:309\u201347.","journal-title":"Int Rev Neurobiol"},{"issue":"10","key":"859_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.xcrm.2025.102348","volume":"6","author":"T Wijeratne","year":"2025","unstructured":"Wijeratne T, Oh J, Kim S, Yim Y, Kim MS, Shin JI, et\u00a0al. Global, regional, and national burden of headache disorders, 1990\u20132021, with forecasts to 2050: a Global Burden of Disease study 2021. Cell Rep Med. 2025;6(10):102348.","journal-title":"Cell Rep Med"},{"key":"859_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1539344","DOI":"10.3389\/fpain.2025.1539344","volume":"6","author":"R Xu","year":"2025","unstructured":"Xu R, Zhang R, Dong L, Xu X, Fan X, Zhou J. An analysis of the burden of migraine and tension-type headache across the global, China, the United States, India and Japan. Front Pain Res (Lausanne). 2025;6:1539344.","journal-title":"Front Pain Res (Lausanne)"},{"issue":"2","key":"859_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0338930","volume":"21","author":"Y Huang","year":"2026","unstructured":"Huang Y, Liu D, Zhang H, Xu X, Yuan S, Cui S, et\u00a0al. Trends and age-period-cohort analysis of migraine incidence in China from 1990 to 2021. PLoS ONE. 2026;21(2):e0338930.","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"key":"859_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1592224","DOI":"10.3389\/fneur.2025.1592224","volume":"16","author":"B Peng","year":"2025","unstructured":"Peng B, Tu Y, Hu S, Xie G. Trends and comparative analysis of the burden of migraine in China and globally from 1990 to 2021: an analysis based on the 2021 global burden of disease study. Front Neurol. 2025;16:1592224.","journal-title":"Front Neurol"},{"issue":"1","key":"859_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s10194-021-01264-0","volume":"22","author":"SF Kothari","year":"2021","unstructured":"Kothari SF, Jensen RH, Steiner TJ. The relationship between headache-attributed disability and lost productivity: 1. A review of the literature. J Headache Pain. 2021;22(1):73.","journal-title":"J Headache Pain"},{"issue":"14","key":"859_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1551","DOI":"10.1177\/0333102420944842","volume":"40","author":"AH Seddik","year":"2020","unstructured":"Seddik AH, Branner JC, Ostwald DA, Schramm SH, Bierbaum M, Katsarava Z. The socioeconomic burden of migraine: an evaluation of productivity losses due to migraine headaches based on a population study in Germany. Cephalalgia. 2020;40(14):1551\u201360.","journal-title":"Cephalalgia"},{"issue":"2","key":"859_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"182","DOI":"10.1055\/s-0038-1646946","volume":"38","author":"D Saylor","year":"2018","unstructured":"Saylor D, Steiner TJ. The global burden of headache. Semin Neurol. 2018;38(2):182\u201390.","journal-title":"Semin Neurol"},{"issue":"9","key":"859_CR35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e875","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(17)30263-2","volume":"5","author":"K Stenberg","year":"2017","unstructured":"Stenberg K, Hanssen O, Edejer TT, Bertram M, Brindley C, Meshreky A, et\u00a0al. Financing transformative health systems towards achievement of the health Sustainable Development Goals: a model for projected resource needs in 67 low-income and middle-income countries. Lancet Glob Health. 2017;5(9):e875\u201387.","journal-title":"Lancet Glob Health"},{"issue":"1","key":"859_CR36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"24","DOI":"10.4103\/WHO-SEAJPH.WHO-SEAJPH_26_24","volume":"13","author":"C Varghese","year":"2024","unstructured":"Varghese C, Nongkynrih B, Kumar S, Krakauer EL, Paleri A, Viswanathan V, et\u00a0al. \u201cOpenWHO\u201d SEARO NCD PEN-HEARTS courses: training 10000 health care providers in 100 countries in 100 days. WHO South East Asia J Public Health. 2024;13(1):24\u20138.","journal-title":"WHO South East Asia J Public Health"},{"key":"859_CR37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/healthcare13020164","author":"P Barbanti","year":"2025","unstructured":"Barbanti P, Nappi RE. Framing and management of migraines in women: an expert opinion on challenges, current approaches, and future multidisciplinary perspectives. Healthcare (Basel). 2025. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/healthcare13020164.","journal-title":"Healthcare (Basel)"},{"issue":"2","key":"859_CR38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/03331024251320608","volume":"45","author":"S Sacco","year":"2025","unstructured":"Sacco S, Ashina M, Diener HC, Haghdoost F, Lee MJ, Monteith TS, et\u00a0al. Setting higher standards for migraine prevention: a position statement of the International Headache Society. Cephalalgia. 2025;45(2):03331024251320608.","journal-title":"Cephalalgia"},{"issue":"4","key":"859_CR39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1279","DOI":"10.1007\/s40122-025-00761-3","volume":"14","author":"L Pellesi","year":"2025","unstructured":"Pellesi L, Yangjeh A, Hajjaj I, Lababidi M, Sarwar F, Wang W, et\u00a0al. Neurotransmitter imbalance in tension-type headache: a systematic review of mechanisms and therapeutic targets. Pain Ther. 2025;14(4):1279\u201391.","journal-title":"Pain Ther"},{"key":"859_CR40","unstructured":"Global, regional, and national burden of headache disorders, 1990\u20132023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023. Lancet Neurol 2025;24(12):1005\u20131015."},{"issue":"1","key":"859_CR41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s10194-025-02192-z","volume":"26","author":"AK Hus\u00f8y","year":"2025","unstructured":"Hus\u00f8y AK, Steiner TJ. GBD 2023: over twice the health loss from headache disorders among females compared with males, and one fifth of the loss is attributable to medication overuse. J Headache Pain. 2025;26(1):227.","journal-title":"J Headache Pain"}],"container-title":["Pain and Therapy"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s40122-026-00859-2.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s40122-026-00859-2","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s40122-026-00859-2.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,29]],"date-time":"2026-09-29T10:29:35Z","timestamp":1790677775000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s40122-026-00859-2"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,14]]},"references-count":41,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,10]]}},"alternative-id":["859"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s40122-026-00859-2","relation":{},"ISSN":["2193-8237","2193-651X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2193-8237","type":"print"},{"value":"2193-651X","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,14]]},"assertion":[{"value":"7 March 2026","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"10 June 2026","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"14 July 2026","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"Zhuochen Chen, Guifen Fan, Kai Dai, Xueting Liu, Xu Cheng, Jianhong Ye, Jun Peng have nothing to disclose.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","label":"Conflict of Interest","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"This study used publicly available data from the GBD 2023 study provided by the IHME. All data were de-identified and aggregated; therefore, ethical approval and informed consent were not required. The GBD database is publicly accessible through the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx) query tool (\n                      \n                      ). Our analysis is governed by the GBD 2023 Publication Policy and Collaborative Agreement [\n                      \n                      ].","order":2,"name":"Ethics","label":"Ethical Approval","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}}]}}