{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,11]],"date-time":"2026-06-11T10:59:47Z","timestamp":1781175587560,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":30,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,11]],"date-time":"2026-05-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1778457600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,11]],"date-time":"2026-05-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1778457600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000272","name":"National Institute for Health and Care Research","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NIHR300590"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NIHR300590"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000272","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004312","name":"Eli Lilly and Company","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004312","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Appl Health Econ Health Policy"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,7]]},"DOI":"10.1007\/s40258-026-01046-2","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,11]],"date-time":"2026-05-11T13:04:42Z","timestamp":1778504682000},"page":"763-776","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Structured Expert Elicitation of Long-Term Survival in Non-small Cell Lung Cancer: A Case Study Applying Guidance from NICE Technical Support Document 26"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"24","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5839-9160","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jessica E.","family":"Forsyth","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Monika","family":"Achra","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7065-8498","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Javier Baena","family":"Espinar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8673-2450","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Maximilian","family":"Hochmair","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Astra M.","family":"Liepa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alan","family":"Lenox-Smith","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2399-4362","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tarun","family":"Puri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rahul","family":"Rajesh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael D.","family":"Sonksen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yvonne","family":"Summers","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7175-0026","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Anthonie J.","family":"van der Wekken","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4916-0107","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Min-Hua","family":"Jen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3568-7124","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Shijie","family":"Ren","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,11]]},"reference":[{"key":"1046_CR1","unstructured":"National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. NICE Health Technology evaluations: the manual, ed, 2022."},{"issue":"9","key":"1046_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1129","DOI":"10.1007\/s40273-019-00806-4","volume":"37","author":"MJ Ouwens","year":"2019","unstructured":"Ouwens MJ, Mukhopadhyay P, Zhang Y, Huang M, Latimer N, Briggs A. Estimating lifetime benefits associated with immuno-oncology therapies: challenges and approaches for overall survival extrapolations. Pharmacoeconomics. 2019;37(9):1129\u201338.","journal-title":"Pharmacoeconomics"},{"key":"1046_CR3","unstructured":"Latimer N. NICE DSU technical support document 14: survival analysis for economic evaluations alongside clinical trials-extrapolation with patient-level data. Report by the Decision Support Unit, 2011."},{"key":"1046_CR4","first-page":"1","volume-title":"NICE DSU technical support document 21: flexible methods for survival analysis","author":"M Rutherford","year":"2020","unstructured":"Rutherford M, Lambert P, Sweeting M, Pennington R, Crowther MJ, Abrams KR. NICE DSU technical support document 21: flexible methods for survival analysis. Leicester: Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester; 2020. p. 1\u201397."},{"issue":"6","key":"1046_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"737","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X231184247","volume":"43","author":"MJ Sweeting","year":"2023","unstructured":"Sweeting MJ, et al. Survival extrapolation incorporating general population mortality using excess hazard and cure models: a tutorial. Med Decis Mak. 2023;43(6):737\u201348.","journal-title":"Med Decis Mak"},{"issue":"2","key":"1046_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"193","DOI":"10.1007\/s40273-019-00853-x","volume":"38","author":"B Kearns","year":"2020","unstructured":"Kearns B, Stevens J, Ren S, Brennan A. How uncertain is the survival extrapolation? A study of the impact of different parametric survival models on extrapolated uncertainty about hazard functions, lifetime mean survival and cost effectiveness. Pharmacoeconomics. 2020;38(2):193\u2013204.","journal-title":"Pharmacoeconomics"},{"issue":"6","key":"1046_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"743","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X12472398","volume":"33","author":"NR Latimer","year":"2013","unstructured":"Latimer NR. Survival analysis for economic evaluations alongside clinical trials\u2014extrapolation with patient-level data: inconsistencies, limitations, and a practical guide. Med Decis Mak. 2013;33(6):743\u201354.","journal-title":"Med Decis Mak"},{"issue":"11","key":"1046_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1469","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jval.2024.07.027","volume":"27","author":"MO Soares","year":"2024","unstructured":"Soares MO, et al. Recommendations on the use of structured expert elicitation protocols for healthcare decision making: an ISPOR Emerging Good Practices Task Force report. Value Health. 2024;27(11):1469\u201378.","journal-title":"Value Health"},{"key":"1046_CR9","unstructured":"Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health (CADTH). Guidelines for the economic evaluation of health technologies: Canada, 4th edn. 2017. [Online]. Available: https:\/\/www.cda-amc.ca\/guidelines-economic-evaluation-health-technologies-canada-4th-edition."},{"key":"1046_CR10","unstructured":"Nederland Z. Richtlijn voor het uitvoeren van economische evaluaties in de gezondheidszorg (versie 2024), 2024. [Online]. Available: https:\/\/www.zorginstituutnederland.nl\/documenten\/2024\/01\/16\/richtlijn-voor-het-uitvoeren-van-economische-evaluaties-in-de-gezondheidszorg."},{"issue":"1","key":"1046_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12911-025-03221-2","volume":"25","author":"JE Forsyth","year":"2025","unstructured":"Forsyth JE, Uttley L, Wong R, Ren S. Structured expert elicitation for long-term survival outcomes in health technology assessment: a systematic review. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak. 2025;25(1):387. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/s12911-025-03221-2.","journal-title":"BMC Med Inform Decis Mak"},{"key":"1046_CR12","unstructured":"Oakley JE, et al. NICE DSU Technical Support Document 26: expert elicitation for long-term survival outcomes, 2025. [Online]. Available: http:\/\/www.nicedsu.org.uk."},{"issue":"37","key":"1046_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.3310\/hta25370","volume":"25","author":"L Bojke","year":"2021","unstructured":"Bojke L, et al. Developing a reference protocol for structured expert elicitation in health-care decision-making: a mixed-methods study. Health Technol Assess. 2021;25(37):1.","journal-title":"Health Technol Assess"},{"key":"1046_CR14","unstructured":"Oakley JE, O'Hagan A. SHELF: the Sheffield Elicitation Framework (version 4). https:\/\/shelf.sites.sheffield.ac.uk\/. Accessed."},{"issue":"6","key":"1046_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0198468","volume":"13","author":"V Hemming","year":"2018","unstructured":"Hemming V, Walshe TV, Hanea AM, Fidler F, Burgman MA. Eliciting improved quantitative judgements using the IDEA protocol: a case study in natural resource management. PLoS ONE. 2018;13(6):e0198468. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0198468.","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"key":"1046_CR16","unstructured":"STEER Online Resources. 2025. https:\/\/www.york.ac.uk\/che\/economic-evaluation\/steer\/. Accessed 10\/01\/25."},{"key":"1046_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s40258-025-01000-8","author":"D Lee","year":"2025","unstructured":"Lee D, Ahmad Z, Larkin JM, Bahl A, Melendez-Torres G. Structured expert elicitation to inform long-term survival extrapolations in advanced renal cell carcinoma. Appl Health Econ Health Policy. 2025. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s40258-025-01000-8.","journal-title":"Appl Health Econ Health Policy"},{"issue":"1","key":"1046_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12874-022-01745-z","volume":"22","author":"D Ayers","year":"2022","unstructured":"Ayers D, Cope S, Towle K, Mojebi A, Marshall T, Dhanda D. Structured expert elicitation to inform long-term survival extrapolations using alternative parametric distributions: a case study of CAR T therapy for relapsed\/refractory multiple myeloma (in English). BMC Med Res Methodol. 2022;22(1):272. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/s12874-022-01745-z.","journal-title":"BMC Med Res Methodol"},{"issue":"1","key":"1046_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12874-019-0823-8","volume":"19","author":"S Cope","year":"2019","unstructured":"Cope S, Ayers D, Zhang J, Batt K, Jansen JP. Integrating expert opinion with clinical trial data to extrapolate long-term survival: a case study of CAR-T therapy for children and young adults with relapsed or refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia (in English). BMC Med Res Methodol. 2019;19(1):182. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/s12874-019-0823-8.","journal-title":"BMC Med Res Methodol"},{"key":"1046_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1201\/9781003282525","volume-title":"Modelling survival data in medical research","author":"D Collett","year":"2023","unstructured":"Collett D. Modelling survival data in medical research. Chapman and Hall\/CRC; 2023."},{"issue":"11","key":"1046_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"991","DOI":"10.1007\/s40273-013-0092-z","volume":"31","author":"B Grigore","year":"2013","unstructured":"Grigore B, Peters J, Hyde C, Stein K. Methods to elicit probability distributions from experts: a systematic review of reported practice in health technology assessment. Pharmacoeconomics. 2013;31(11):991\u20131003.","journal-title":"Pharmacoeconomics"},{"issue":"6","key":"1046_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"715","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jval.2018.01.019","volume":"21","author":"MO Soares","year":"2018","unstructured":"Soares MO, Sharples L, Morton A, Claxton K, Bojke L. Experiences of structured elicitation for model-based cost-effectiveness analyses. Value Health. 2018;21(6):715\u201323.","journal-title":"Value Health"},{"issue":"9944","key":"1046_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"665","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(14)60845-X","volume":"384","author":"EB Garon","year":"2014","unstructured":"Garon EB, et al. Ramucirumab plus docetaxel versus placebo plus docetaxel for second-line treatment of stage IV non-small-cell lung cancer after disease progression on platinum-based therapy (REVEL): a multicentre, double-blind, randomised phase 3 trial. Lancet. 2014;384(9944):665\u201373.","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"1046_CR24","unstructured":"National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Ramucirumab for previously treated locally advanced or metastatic non-smallcell lung cancer [ID838]. 2016. [Online]. Available: https:\/\/www.nice.org.uk\/guidance\/ta403\/history."},{"issue":"1","key":"1046_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2288-12-9","volume":"12","author":"P Guyot","year":"2012","unstructured":"Guyot P, Ades A, Ouwens MJ, Welton NJ. Enhanced secondary analysis of survival data: reconstructing the data from published Kaplan\u2013Meier survival curves. BMC Med Res Methodol. 2012;12(1):9.","journal-title":"BMC Med Res Methodol"},{"key":"1046_CR26","unstructured":"WebPlotDigitizer. [Online]. Available: https:\/\/automeris.io."},{"key":"1046_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v070.i08","volume":"70","author":"C Jackson","year":"2016","unstructured":"Jackson C. flexsurv: a platform for parametric survival modeling in R. J Stat Softw. 2016;70:1\u201333.","journal-title":"J Stat Softw"},{"key":"1046_CR28","unstructured":"Oakley JE. SHELF: tools to support the Sheffield elicitation framework. R package version 1.12.0. https:\/\/github.com\/OakleyJ\/SHELF. Accessed."},{"issue":"8","key":"1046_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1224","DOI":"10.1038\/bjc.2017.179","volume":"117","author":"C Koshiaris","year":"2017","unstructured":"Koshiaris C, et al. Smoking cessation and survival in lung, upper aero-digestive tract and bladder cancer: cohort study. Br J Cancer. 2017;117(8):1224\u201332.","journal-title":"Br J Cancer"},{"issue":"6","key":"1046_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2741","DOI":"10.1007\/s12325-023-02503-3","volume":"40","author":"BJA Willigers","year":"2023","unstructured":"Willigers BJA, et al. The role of expert opinion in projecting long-term survival outcomes beyond the horizon of a clinical trial. Adv Ther. 2023;40(6):2741\u201351. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s12325-023-02503-3.","journal-title":"Adv Ther"}],"container-title":["Applied Health Economics and Health Policy"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s40258-026-01046-2.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s40258-026-01046-2","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s40258-026-01046-2.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,11]],"date-time":"2026-06-11T10:28:24Z","timestamp":1781173704000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s40258-026-01046-2"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,11]]},"references-count":30,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,7]]}},"alternative-id":["1046"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s40258-026-01046-2","relation":{},"ISSN":["1175-5652","1179-1896"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1175-5652","type":"print"},{"value":"1179-1896","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,11]]},"assertion":[{"value":"8 December 2025","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"20 April 2026","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"11 May 2026","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"Javier Baena Espinar, Maximilian Hochmair, Yvonne Summers, and Anthonie J. van der Wekken were funded for their time participating in the case study via a NIHR Advanced Fellowship (grant no. NIHR300590). Anthonie J. van der Wekken reports grants from AstraZeneca, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Pfizer, Roche, and Takeda; advisory boards and consultancy for AstraZeneca, Bayer, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Janssen, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, Roche, and Takeda; all outside this paper and payments to UMCG. Maximilian Hochmair reports receiving personal fees and nonfinancial support from AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Takeda, Lilly and Roche; and personal fees from Merck Sharp & Dohme, Lilly, AstraZeneca, Takeda, and MERCK. Yvonne Summers reports participating in paid advisory work and educational meetings with Eli Lilly. Monika Achra, Astra M. Liepa, Alan Lenox-Smith, Tarun Puri, Rahul Rajesh, Michael D. Sonksen, and Min-Hua Jen are all employees of Eli Lilly and Company. Jessica E. Forsyth and Shijie Ren have no competing interests to declare.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Conflict of interest"}},{"value":"Ethical approval for this study was obtained from the University of Sheffield, School of Medicine and Population Health Ethics Committee (reference: 064353). All participants provided informed consent before taking part.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethics approval"}},{"value":"All data supporting the findings of this study are available within the paper and its Supplementary Information","order":4,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Data availability statement"}},{"value":"The code used for this elicitation exercise is provided via the SHELF website:\n                      \n                      .","order":5,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Code availability"}},{"value":"Conceptualisation: Jessica E. Forsyth, Min-Hua Jen, Astra M Liepa, Tarun Puri, Shijie Ren, Michael D. Sonksen; preparation of workshop materials: Monika Achra, Jessica E. Forsyth , Rahul Rajesh, Shijie Ren; review of workshop materials: Javier Baena Espinar, Maximillian Hochmair, Min-Hua Jen, Alan Lenox-Smith, Tarun Puri, Yvonne Summers, Anthonie J. van der Wekken; facilitation team members: Jessica E. Forsyth, Shijie Ren; participation in the workshops: Javier Baena Espinar, Maximilian Hochmair, Alan Lenox-Smith, Yvonne Summers, Anthonie J. van der Wekken; writing\u2014original draft preparation: Jessica E. Forsyth, Shijie Ren; writing\u2014review and editing: all authors.","order":6,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Author contributions"}}]}}