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Regression models of annual primary and annual\u00a0hospital care\u00a0costs\u00a0(2020 UK\u00a3) associated with individual characteristics and experiences of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, coronary revascularization, incident diabetes mellitus and cancer, and vascular and nonvascular death are reported.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>For both people without and with previous cardiovascular disease (CVD), primary care costs were modelled using one-part generalised linear models (GLMs) with identity link and Poisson distribution, and hospital costs with two-part models (part 1: logistic regression models the\u00a0probability of incurring costs; part 2: GLM with identity link and Poisson distribution models the\u00a0costs conditional on incurring any). In people without previous CVD, mean annual primary and hospital care costs were \u00a3360 and \u00a3514, respectively. The excess primary care costs were \u00a3190 and \u00a3360 following MI and stroke, respectively, whereas excess hospital costs decreased from \u00a34340 and \u00a35590, respectively, in the year of these events, to \u00a3190 and \u00a3410 two years later. People with previous CVD had more than twice higher annual costs, and incurred higher excess costs for cardiovascular events. Other characteristics associated with higher costs included older age, female sex, south Asian ethnicity, higher socioeconomic deprivation, smoking, lower level of physical activities, unhealthy body mass index, and comorbidities.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>These individual-level healthcare cost prediction models could inform assessments of the value of health technologies and policies to reduce cardiovascular and other disease risks and healthcare costs. An accompanying Excel calculator is available to facilitate the use of the models.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1007\/s40273-022-01219-6","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,24]],"date-time":"2023-02-24T10:02:42Z","timestamp":1677232962000},"page":"547-559","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":22,"title":["Prediction Models for Individual-Level Healthcare Costs Associated with Cardiovascular Events in the UK"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"41","author":[{"given":"Junwen","family":"Zhou","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Runguo","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Claire","family":"Williams","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jonathan","family":"Emberson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Christina","family":"Reith","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anthony","family":"Keech","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"John","family":"Robson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kenneth","family":"Wilkinson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jane","family":"Armitage","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alastair","family":"Gray","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"John","family":"Simes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Colin","family":"Baigent","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0951-1304","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Borislava","family":"Mihaylova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,23]]},"reference":[{"issue":"25","key":"1219_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2982","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jacc.2020.11.010","volume":"76","author":"GA Roth","year":"2020","unstructured":"Roth GA, Mensah GA, Johnson CO, et al. 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Further support from the British Heart Foundation, the UK Medical Research Council and National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Australia is acknowledged. The study was designed and analysed independently of all funders\u00a0and the\u00a0views expressed are those of the authors\u00a0and not necessarily those of the NIHR, the Department of Health and Social Care or any other funder.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Funding"}},{"value":"Data may be obtained from a third party and are not publicly available. The datasets used in the current study are available from UK Biobank (). Researchers can apply to use the UK Biobank resource.","order":4,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Data availability statement"}}]}}