{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,6]],"date-time":"2026-10-06T17:51:25Z","timestamp":1791309085235,"version":"4.3.1"},"reference-count":24,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,6]],"date-time":"2026-10-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1791244800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.springernature.com\/gp\/researchers\/text-and-data-mining"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,6]],"date-time":"2026-10-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1791244800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.springernature.com\/gp\/researchers\/text-and-data-mining"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Sports Med"],"DOI":"10.1007\/s40279-026-02545-x","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,6]],"date-time":"2026-10-06T17:03:13Z","timestamp":1791306193000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Breaking Barriers: What is the Probability of Achieving Mile World Records in the Near Future?"],"prefix":"10.1007","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0009-6344-3726","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alejandro","family":"Alda-Blanco","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2082-1709","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Andrew M.","family":"Jones","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6327-6958","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Fernando","family":"Gonz\u00e1lez-Moh\u00edno","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"2545_CR1","first-page":"168","volume-title":"The four-minute mile historical and cultural interpretations of a sporting barrier","author":"J Bale","year":"2007","unstructured":"Bale J, Howe D. The four-minute mile historical and cultural interpretations of a sporting barrier. 1st ed. London: Routledge; 2007. p. 168.","edition":"1"},{"issue":"6","key":"2545_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1335","DOI":"10.1152\/japplphysiol.00074.2025","volume":"138","author":"RJ Osborne","year":"2025","unstructured":"Osborne RJ, Kirby BS, Black MI, Vanhatalo A, Jones AM. Seven (.65) seconds away: the possibility and physiology of a women\u2019s sub-4 min mile. J Appl Physiol (1985). 2025;138(6):1335\u201340. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1152\/japplphysiol.00074.2025.","journal-title":"J Appl Physiol (1985)"},{"issue":"3","key":"2545_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"329","DOI":"10.1080\/00140136508930810","volume":"8","author":"H Monod","year":"1965","unstructured":"Monod H, Scherrer J. The work capacity of a synergic muscular group. Ergonomics. 1965;8(3):329\u201338. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/00140136508930810.","journal-title":"Ergonomics"},{"issue":"1","key":"2545_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1080\/17461391.2016.1249524","volume":"18","author":"M Burnley","year":"2018","unstructured":"Burnley M, Jones AM. Power-duration relationship: physiology, fatigue, and the limits of human performance. Eur J Sport Sci. 2018;18(1):1\u201312. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/17461391.2016.1249524.","journal-title":"Eur J Sport Sci"},{"issue":"S1","key":"2545_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"65","DOI":"10.1007\/s40279-017-0688-0","volume":"47","author":"AM Jones","year":"2017","unstructured":"Jones AM, Vanhatalo A. The \u2018critical power\u2019 concept: applications to sports performance with a focus on intermittent high-intensity exercise. Sports Med. 2017;47(S1):65\u201378. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s40279-017-0688-0.","journal-title":"Sports Med"},{"issue":"11","key":"2545_CR6","first-page":"1283","volume":"24","author":"DG Jenkins","year":"1992","unstructured":"Jenkins DG, Quigley BM. Endurance training enhances critical power. Med Sci Sports Exerc. 1992;24(11):1283\u20139.","journal-title":"Med Sci Sports Exerc"},{"issue":"2","key":"2545_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"275","DOI":"10.1249\/00005768-199302000-00019","volume":"25","author":"DG Jenkins","year":"1993","unstructured":"Jenkins DG, Quigley BM. The influence of high-intensity exercise training on the Wlim-Tlim relationship. Med Sci Sports Exerc. 1993;25(2):275\u201382.","journal-title":"Med Sci Sports Exerc"},{"issue":"23","key":"2545_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2661","DOI":"10.1080\/02640414.2023.2183103","volume":"40","author":"V Rodrigo-Carranza","year":"2022","unstructured":"Rodrigo-Carranza V, Gonz\u00e1lez-Moh\u00edno F, Santos-Concejero J, Gonz\u00e1lez-Rav\u00e9 JM. Impact of advanced footwear technology on elite men\u2019s in the evolution of road race performance. J Sports Sci. 2022;40(23):2661\u20138. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/02640414.2023.2183103.","journal-title":"J Sports Sci"},{"issue":"1","key":"2545_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s40798-024-00683-y","volume":"10","author":"S Willwacher","year":"2024","unstructured":"Willwacher S, Mai P, Helwig J, Hipper M, Utku B, Robbin J. Does advanced footwear technology improve track and road racing performance? An explorative analysis based on the 100 best yearly performances in the world between 2010 and 2022. Sports Med Open. 2024;10(1):14. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/s40798-024-00683-y.","journal-title":"Sports Med Open"},{"issue":"6","key":"2545_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1690","DOI":"10.1152\/japplphysiol.00610.2024","volume":"137","author":"BJ Needles","year":"2024","unstructured":"Needles BJ, Grabowski AM. Does running speed affect the performance improvements experienced by elite distance runners wearing advanced footwear technology spikes? J Appl Physiol (1985). 2024;137(6):1690\u20138. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1152\/japplphysiol.00610.2024.","journal-title":"J Appl Physiol (1985)"},{"issue":"1","key":"2545_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"9","DOI":"10.1080\/19424280.2022.2164624","volume":"15","author":"V Rodrigo-Carranza","year":"2023","unstructured":"Rodrigo-Carranza V, Gonz\u00e1lez-Moh\u00edno F, Casado A, Santos-Concejero J, Gal\u00e1n-Rioja M\u00c1, Gonz\u00e1lez-Rav\u00e9 JM. Impact of advanced footwear technology on critical speed and performance in elite runners. Footwear Sci. 2023;15(1):9\u201315. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/19424280.2022.2164624.","journal-title":"Footwear Sci"},{"issue":"5","key":"2545_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"689","DOI":"10.1123\/ijspp.2024-0377","volume":"20","author":"V Rodrigo-Carranza","year":"2025","unstructured":"Rodrigo-Carranza V, Mu\u00f1oz de la Cruz V, Hoogkamer W. Influence of advanced-footwear-technology spikes on middle- and long-distance running performance measures in trained runners. Int J Sports Physiol Perform. 2025;20(5):689\u201399. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1123\/ijspp.2024-0377.","journal-title":"Int J Sports Physiol Perform"},{"key":"2545_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jbiomech.2021.110457","volume":"122","author":"L Schickhofer","year":"2021","unstructured":"Schickhofer L, Hanson H. Aerodynamic effects and performance improvements of running in drafting formations. J Biomech. 2021;122:110457. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jbiomech.2021.110457.","journal-title":"J Biomech"},{"issue":"11","key":"2545_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2180","DOI":"10.1080\/14763141.2021.2006295","volume":"23","author":"F Beaumont","year":"2024","unstructured":"Beaumont F, Legrand F, Bogard F, Murer S, Vernede V, Polidori G. Aerodynamic interaction between in-line runners: new insights on the drafting strategy in running. Sports Biomech. 2024;23(11):2180\u201395. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/14763141.2021.2006295.","journal-title":"Sports Biomech"},{"key":"2545_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1123\/ijspp.2025-0409","author":"P Comino","year":"2026","unstructured":"Comino P, Walt M, Casado A. The impact of wavelight technology on performance and pacing and tactical behavior in 1500-m diamond league races. Int J Sports Physiol Perform. 2026. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1123\/ijspp.2025-0409.","journal-title":"Int J Sports Physiol Perform"},{"issue":"3","key":"2545_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1378","DOI":"10.3390\/app16031378","volume":"16","author":"F Gonz\u00e1lez-Moh\u00edno","year":"2026","unstructured":"Gonz\u00e1lez-Moh\u00edno F, Rodr\u00edguez-Barbero S, G\u00f3mez M, Salinero JJ. Pacing profiles and performance in 800\u00a0m meeting races during a new technological era: influence of wavelight technology. Appl Sci. 2026;16(3):1378.","journal-title":"Appl Sci"},{"key":"2545_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/sports12120329","author":"A Alda-Blanco","year":"2024","unstructured":"Alda-Blanco A, Rodr\u00edguez-Barbero S, Rodrigo-Carranza V, Valero F, Chico P, Gonz\u00e1lez-Moh\u00edno F. Influence of running surface using advanced footwear technology spikes on middle- and long-distance running performance measures. Sports (Basel). 2024. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/sports12120329.","journal-title":"Sports (Basel)"},{"issue":"3","key":"2545_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"766","DOI":"10.1152\/japplphysiol.00086.2022","volume":"133","author":"ES Da Silva","year":"2022","unstructured":"Da Silva ES, Kram R, Hoogkamer W. The metabolic cost of emulated aerodynamic drag forces in marathon running. J Appl Physiol. 2022;133(3):766\u201376. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1152\/japplphysiol.00086.2022.","journal-title":"J Appl Physiol"},{"issue":"1","key":"2545_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"260","DOI":"10.1152\/japplphysiol.00456.2025","volume":"139","author":"ES Da Silva","year":"2025","unstructured":"Da Silva ES, Hoogkamer W, Kipp S, Kram R. How much energy does overcoming air resistance cost at 4-min-mile pace? J Appl Physiol. 2025;139(1):260\u20131. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1152\/japplphysiol.00456.2025.","journal-title":"J Appl Physiol"},{"issue":"9","key":"2545_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1143","DOI":"10.1123\/ijspp.2016-0341","volume":"12","author":"J Watkins","year":"2017","unstructured":"Watkins J, Platt S, Andersson E, McGawley K. Pacing strategies and metabolic responses during 4-minute running time trials. Int J Sports Physiol Perform. 2017;12(9):1143\u201350. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1123\/ijspp.2016-0341.","journal-title":"Int J Sports Physiol Perform"},{"issue":"7","key":"2545_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1377","DOI":"10.1249\/MSS.0b013e3182860325","volume":"45","author":"W Chidnok","year":"2013","unstructured":"Chidnok W, Dimenna FJ, Bailey SJ, Wilkerson DP, Vanhatalo A, Jones AM. Effects of pacing strategy on work done above critical power during high-intensity exercise. Med Sci Sports Exerc. 2013;45(7):1377\u201385. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1249\/MSS.0b013e3182860325.","journal-title":"Med Sci Sports Exerc"},{"issue":"5","key":"2545_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"879","DOI":"10.1249\/mss.0000000000000843","volume":"48","author":"NE Brick","year":"2016","unstructured":"Brick NE, Campbell MJ, Metcalfe RS, Mair JL, Macintyre TE. Altering pace control and pace regulation: attentional focus effects during running. Med Sci Sports Exerc. 2016;48(5):879\u201386. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1249\/mss.0000000000000843.","journal-title":"Med Sci Sports Exerc"},{"issue":"12","key":"2545_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2637","DOI":"10.1249\/mss.0000000000002412","volume":"52","author":"B Smyth","year":"2020","unstructured":"Smyth B, Muniz-Pumares D. Calculation of critical speed from raw training data in recreational marathon runners. Med Sci Sports Exerc. 2020;52(12):2637\u201345. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1249\/mss.0000000000002412.","journal-title":"Med Sci Sports Exerc"},{"key":"2545_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"100975","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jshs.2024.100975","volume":"14","author":"M Bertschy","year":"2025","unstructured":"Bertschy M, Rodrigo-Carranza V, Wilkie EWC, Healey LA, Noble J, Albert WJ, et al. Self-perceived middle-distance race pace is faster in advanced footwear technology spikes. J Sport Health Sci. 2025;14:100975. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jshs.2024.100975.","journal-title":"J Sport Health Sci"}],"container-title":["Sports Medicine"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s40279-026-02545-x.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s40279-026-02545-x","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s40279-026-02545-x.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,6]],"date-time":"2026-10-06T17:03:14Z","timestamp":1791306194000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s40279-026-02545-x"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,6]]},"references-count":24,"alternative-id":["2545"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s40279-026-02545-x","relation":{},"ISSN":["0112-1642","1179-2035"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0112-1642","type":"print"},{"value":"1179-2035","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,6]]},"assertion":[{"value":"11 September 2026","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"6 October 2026","order":2,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. Professor Andrew M. Jones is an Editorial Board member of\n                      Sports Medicine\n                      . Professor Andrew M. Jones was not involved in the selection of peer reviewers for the manuscript nor any of the subsequent editorial decisions.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","label":"Conflict of Interest","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"Institutional review board approval for this study was waived concerning informed consent because these data are in the public domain.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","label":"Ethics Approval","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","label":"Consent to Participate","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"Not applicable. This article does not contain any individual person\u2019s data, images, or other information requiring consent for publication.","order":4,"name":"Ethics","label":"Consent for Publication","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"Custom code for data processing and analysis was developed using MATLAB (version R2025a; The MathWorks, Inc., Natick, Massachusetts, USA). The code used in this study has been uploaded as supplementary material accompanying this article.","order":5,"name":"Ethics","label":"Code Availability","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by AA-B and FG-M. The first draft of the manuscript was written by AA-B, AMJ, and FG-M; all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.","order":6,"name":"Ethics","label":"Authors Contributions","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}}]}}