{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,11]],"date-time":"2025-09-11T21:40:28Z","timestamp":1757626828010,"version":"3.44.0"},"reference-count":6,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,31]],"date-time":"2025-08-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1756598400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,31]],"date-time":"2025-08-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1756598400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Aging Clin Exp Res"],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n          <jats:p>The COVID-19 pandemic devastated nursing homes, highlighting the urgent need for effective outbreak control measures. This study analyzed twice-weekly PCR surveillance data from 134 Veteran Affairs Community Living Centers (December 2021-June 2022) to identify early predictors of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks. Among 16,353 residents (mean age 74, 96% male, 68% white), we identified 1,868 infections and evaluated neighborhood ward-level case counts and their association with subsequent infections over two-week periods. Epidemic unit-days with no initial cases had an 87.49% likelihood of remaining case-free, while those with \u2265\u20094 initial cases demonstrated a 38.5% probability of developing\u2009\u2265\u20094 additional cases. These findings indicate that early case clusters strongly predict larger outbreaks, underscoring the importance of rapid detection and intervention. Study limitations include demographic homogeneity and reliance on frequent PCR testing, potentially limiting generalizability. This research provides a valuable framework for refining outbreak definitions and improving infection control strategies for respiratory virus outbreaks in nursing homes.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s40520-025-03155-9","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,31]],"date-time":"2025-08-31T08:10:00Z","timestamp":1756627800000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Analyzing SARS-CoV-2 case numbers and clustering to predict a nursing home outbreak"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"37","author":[{"given":"Yasin","family":"Abul","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Kevin","family":"McConeghy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Frank","family":"DeVone","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Christopher","family":"Halladay","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Stefan","family":"Gravenstein","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"James","family":"Rudolph","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,31]]},"reference":[{"key":"3155_CR1","unstructured":"Centers for Medicare&Medicaid Services (2024) COVID-19 Nursing Home Data. Available at: https:\/\/data.cms.gov\/covid-19\/covid-19-nursing-home-data. Accessed Jul 1"},{"issue":"13","key":"3155_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"377","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm6913e1","volume":"69","author":"A Kimball","year":"2020","unstructured":"Kimball A, Hatfield KM, Arons M et al (2020) Asymptomatic and presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections in residents of a Long-Term care skilled nursing Facility - King county, washington, March 2020. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 69(13):377\u2013381","journal-title":"MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep"},{"issue":"1","key":"3155_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e2035057","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2020.35057","volume":"4","author":"MA Johansson","year":"2021","unstructured":"Johansson MA, Quandelacy TM, Kada S et al (2021) SARS-CoV-2 transmission from people without COVID-19 symptoms. JAMA Netw Open 4(1):e2035057. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2020.35057","journal-title":"JAMA Netw Open"},{"issue":"1","key":"3155_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1084","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-023-16009-8","volume":"23","author":"S Tang","year":"2023","unstructured":"Tang S, Wang X, Tang B et al (2023) Threshold conditions for curbing COVID-19 with a dynamic zero-case policy derived from 101 outbreaks in China. BMC Public Health 23(1):1084. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/s12889-023-16009-8","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"issue":"9","key":"3155_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"577","DOI":"10.7326\/M20-0504","volume":"5","author":"SA Lauer","year":"2020","unstructured":"Lauer SA, Grantz KH, Bi Q et al (2020) The incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from publicly reported confirmed cases: Estimation and application. Ann Intern Med 2020 May 5(9):577\u2013582. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.7326\/M20-0504","journal-title":"Ann Intern Med 2020 May"},{"key":"3155_CR6","unstructured":"CDC National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases Division of Viral Diseases Preparing for COVID-19 in nursing homes. Series: Coronavirus Disease 2019,May 19, 2020, URL:https:\/\/stacks.cdc.gov\/view\/cdc\/88410"}],"container-title":["Aging Clinical and Experimental Research"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s40520-025-03155-9.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s40520-025-03155-9\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s40520-025-03155-9.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,9]],"date-time":"2025-09-09T23:27:17Z","timestamp":1757460437000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s40520-025-03155-9"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,31]]},"references-count":6,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,12]]}},"alternative-id":["3155"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s40520-025-03155-9","relation":{},"ISSN":["1720-8319"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"1720-8319"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,31]]},"assertion":[{"value":"27 March 2025","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"21 July 2025","order":2,"name":"revised","label":"Revised","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"31 July 2025","order":3,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"31 August 2025","order":4,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"YA receives or has received grant funding from Abt-CDC, GSK, Sanofi, Moderna. SG has received investigator-initiated grant funding and consulting fees from Sanofi, Genentech, Pfizer, GlaxoSmithKline, Icosavax, Janssen and Seqirus; collaborative grant funding from Moderna; and honoraria and consulting fees from Novavax and Moderna. KWM has received investigator-initiated support from Sanofi, Seqirus, Pfizer, GlaxoSmithKline and Genentech. JR is funded by the VA Health Services Research and Development Center of Innovation in Long-Term Services and Supports (CIN 13-419; C19-20-213). FD and CH have no conflict of interests to report.The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the Department of Veterans Affairs or the United States government. This work was submitted to be published as an abstract to ID Week 2024.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}},{"value":"This work was supported by the Providence VA Medical Center, Center for Long-Term Services and Supports.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Disclosures"}},{"value":"This work was submitted to be published as an abstract to IDWeek.","order":4,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Disclosures"}}],"article-number":"265"}}