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There are no grant numbers to declare. Novartis also provided support in the form of salaries for Elisabetta Aloisi, Martina Fiocchi and Daniela Ritrovato. The specific roles of these authors are articulated in the \u2018author contributions\u2019 section. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Novartis SpA also provided the open access fee.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Funding"}},{"value":"Paolo Angelo Cortesi has received a research grant from Baxalta, now part of Shire, and speaking honoraria from Pfizer and Roche. Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani has received grants and personal fees from Bayer AG, Boehringer Ingelheim, Pfizer and Daiichi-Sankyo. Carla Fornari and Ippazio Cosimo Antonazzo have no conflicts of interest to disclose. Paolo Gisondi has served as a speaker for Abbvie, Almirall, Eli Lilly, Novartis, Jannsen, Pfizer, UCB, Sanofi and Pierre Fabre. Fiorenzo Iannone received speaker\u2019s fees and consultation grants from AbbVie, Actelion, BMS, Biogen, Lilly, MSD, Pfizer, Roche, Sanofi and UCB outside the submitted work. Elisabetta Aloisi, Martina Fiocchi and Daniela Ritrovato are employees of Novartis Pharma SpA Italy. This does not alter our adherence to Journal policies on sharing data and materials. The marketed product secukinumab is associated with this research.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Conflict of interest"}},{"value":"Ethical approval is not required for simulation-based studies in the present study\u2019s jurisdiction.","order":4,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethics approval"}},{"value":"Not relevant to this study.","order":5,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Consent to participate"}},{"value":"Not relevant to this study.","order":6,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Consent for publication"}},{"value":"The budget impact model structure and the data sources analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request. All data used to construct the model from both primary and secondary sources has also been presented within this manuscript.","order":7,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Availability of data and material"}},{"value":"The budget impact model structure is available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.","order":8,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Code availability"}},{"value":"All authors contributed to conception and planning of the study. PAC and CF performed the analysis, which was reviewed by all the other authors. The first draft of the manuscript was written by PAC and CF and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final version of the manuscript.","order":9,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Author contributions"}}]}}