{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,17]],"date-time":"2026-07-17T23:04:33Z","timestamp":1784329473118,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":63,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,24]],"date-time":"2026-05-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1779580800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,24]],"date-time":"2026-05-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1779580800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008349","name":"Boehringer Ingelheim","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008349","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PharmacoEconomics Open"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,7]]},"DOI":"10.1007\/s41669-026-00661-y","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,24]],"date-time":"2026-05-24T11:58:33Z","timestamp":1779623913000},"page":"647-659","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Validation of the Obesity Lifecycle Model Built to Assess the Cost Effectiveness of Novel Therapies in the Management of Obesity"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"10","author":[{"given":"Ben","family":"Modley","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5783-2914","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ahmed","family":"Seddik","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marc","family":"Evans","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stephanie","family":"Stephens","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chloe","family":"Salter","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marilena","family":"Appierto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"661_CR1","unstructured":"World Health Organization. Obesity and overweight 2024 [Date accessed: 12 February 2025]. Available from: https:\/\/www.who.int\/news-room\/fact-sheets\/detail\/obesity-and-overweight."},{"issue":"Suppl 1","key":"661_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1111\/dom.14290","volume":"23","author":"S Sarma","year":"2021","unstructured":"Sarma S, Sockalingam S, Dash S. Obesity as a multisystem disease: trends in obesity rates and obesity-related complications. Diabetes Obes Metab. 2021;23(Suppl 1):3\u201316.","journal-title":"Diabetes Obes Metab"},{"key":"661_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"34","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pcad.2024.01.003","volume":"82","author":"PL Alebna","year":"2024","unstructured":"Alebna PL, Mehta A, Yehya A, daSilva-deAbreu A, Lavie CJ, Carbone S. Update on obesity, the obesity paradox, and obesity management in heart failure. Prog Cardiovasc Dis. 2024;82:34\u201342.","journal-title":"Prog Cardiovasc Dis"},{"issue":"10","key":"661_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjgh-2021-006351","volume":"6","author":"A Okunogbe","year":"2021","unstructured":"Okunogbe A, Nugent R, Spencer G, Ralston J, Wilding J. Economic impacts of overweight and obesity: current and future estimates for eight countries. BMJ Glob Health. 2021;6(10):e006351.","journal-title":"BMJ Glob Health"},{"issue":"10","key":"661_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2016-014632","volume":"7","author":"A Goettler","year":"2017","unstructured":"Goettler A, Grosse A, Sonntag D. Productivity loss due to overweight and obesity: a systematic review of indirect costs. BMJ Open. 2017;7(10):e014632.","journal-title":"BMJ Open"},{"key":"661_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2021.722927","volume":"9","author":"HC Turner","year":"2021","unstructured":"Turner HC, Archer RA, Downey LE, Isaranuwatchai W, Chalkidou K, Jit M, et al. An introduction to the main types of economic evaluations used for informing priority setting and resource allocation in healthcare: key features, uses, and limitations. Front Public Health. 2021;9:722927.","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"issue":"5","key":"661_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"733","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X12454579","volume":"32","author":"DM Eddy","year":"2012","unstructured":"Eddy DM, Hollingworth W, Caro JJ, Tsevat J, McDonald KM, Wong JB. Model transparency and validation: a report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-7. Med Decis Mak. 2012;32(5):733\u201343.","journal-title":"Med Decis Mak"},{"issue":"5","key":"661_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"529","DOI":"10.1080\/14737167.2018.1501680","volume":"18","author":"B Schwander","year":"2018","unstructured":"Schwander B, Nuijten M, Hiligsmann M, Evers SMAA. Event simulation and external validation applied in published health economic models for obesity: a systematic review. Expert Rev Pharmacoecon Outcomes Res. 2018;18(5):529\u201341.","journal-title":"Expert Rev Pharmacoecon Outcomes Res"},{"issue":"10","key":"661_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1123","DOI":"10.1007\/s40273-020-00941-3","volume":"38","author":"S Lopes","year":"2020","unstructured":"Lopes S, Johansen P, Lamotte M, McEwan P, Olivieri AV, Foos V. External validation of the core obesity model to assess the cost-effectiveness of weight management interventions. Pharmacoeconomics. 2020;38(10):1123\u201333.","journal-title":"Pharmacoeconomics"},{"key":"661_CR10","unstructured":"Foos V, McEwan P, Vodyanov A, Modely B, Flavin J. Microsimulation in obesity: a feasibility study 2023 [Date accessed: 04 March 2025]. Available from: https:\/\/www.ispor.org\/docs\/default-source\/euro2023\/231031ispor-2023biobesitymodelv1-5132602-pdf.pdf?sfvrsn=7b145997_0."},{"key":"661_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"17","DOI":"10.1063\/1.3295638","volume":"1204","author":"RL Harrison","year":"2010","unstructured":"Harrison RL. Introduction to Monte Carlo simulation. AIP Conf Proc. 2010;1204:17\u201321.","journal-title":"AIP Conf Proc"},{"key":"661_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.j5019","volume":"359","author":"J Hippisley-Cox","year":"2017","unstructured":"Hippisley-Cox J, Coupland C. Development and validation of QDiabetes-2018 risk prediction algorithm to estimate future risk of type 2 diabetes: cohort study. BMJ. 2017;359:j5019.","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"issue":"2 Pt 1","key":"661_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"272","DOI":"10.1016\/S0002-8703(00)90236-9","volume":"139","author":"RB D'Agostino","year":"2000","unstructured":"D\u2019Agostino RB, Russell MW, Huse DM, Ellison RC, Silbershatz H, Wilson PW, et al. Primary and subsequent coronary risk appraisal: new results from the Framingham study. Am Heart J. 2000;139(2 Pt 1):272\u201381.","journal-title":"Am Heart J"},{"key":"661_CR14","unstructured":"Framingham Heart Study. Recurrent coronary heart disease 2025 [Date accessed: 29 November 2025]. Available from: https:\/\/www.framinghamheartstudy.org\/fhs-risk-functions\/recurrent-coronary-heart-disease\/."},{"issue":"6","key":"661_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"743","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCULATIONAHA.107.699579","volume":"117","author":"RB D\u2019Agostino","year":"2008","unstructured":"D\u2019Agostino RB, Vasan RS, Pencina MJ, Wolf PA, Cobain M, Massaro JM, et al. General cardiovascular risk profile for use in primary care. Circulation. 2008;117(6):743\u201353.","journal-title":"Circulation"},{"issue":"3","key":"661_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"312","DOI":"10.1161\/01.STR.22.3.312","volume":"22","author":"PA Wolf","year":"1991","unstructured":"Wolf PA, D\u2019Agostino RB, Belanger AJ, Kannel WB. Probability of stroke: a risk profile from the Framingham study. Stroke. 1991;22(3):312\u20138.","journal-title":"Stroke"},{"issue":"9","key":"661_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1925","DOI":"10.1007\/s00125-013-2940-y","volume":"56","author":"AJ Hayes","year":"2013","unstructured":"Hayes AJ, Leal J, Gray AM, Holman RR, Clarke PM. UKPDS outcomes model 2: a new version of a model to simulate lifetime health outcomes of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus using data from the 30 year United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes study: UKPDS 82. Diabetologia. 2013;56(9):1925\u201333.","journal-title":"Diabetologia"},{"issue":"1","key":"661_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"74","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCULATIONAHA.121.053766","volume":"144","author":"AJ Nelson","year":"2021","unstructured":"Nelson AJ, Pagidipati NJ, Aroda VR, Cavender MA, Green JB, Lopes RD, et al. Incorporating SGLT2i and GLP-1RA for cardiovascular and kidney disease risk reduction: call for action to the Cardiology Community. Circulation. 2021;144(1):74\u201384.","journal-title":"Circulation"},{"issue":"9489","key":"661_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"895","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(05)67185-1","volume":"366","author":"B Dahl\u00f6f","year":"2005","unstructured":"Dahl\u00f6f B, Sever P, Poulter NR, Wedel H, Beevers DG, Caulfield M, et al. Prevention of cardiovascular events with an antihypertensive regimen of amlodipine adding perindopril as required versus atenolol adding bendroflumethiazide as required, in the Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-Blood Pressure Lowering Arm (ASCOT-BPLA): a multicentre randomised controlled trial. Lancet. 2005;366(9489):895\u2013906.","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"22","key":"661_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2103","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1511939","volume":"373","author":"JT Wright Jr","year":"2017","unstructured":"SPRINT Research Group, Wright JT Jr, Williamson J, Whelton PK, Snyder JK, Sink KM, et al. A randomized trial of intensive versus standard blood-pressure control. N Engl J Med. 2017;373(22):2103\u201316.","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"issue":"14","key":"661_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1279","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1200303","volume":"368","author":"R Estruch","year":"2018","unstructured":"Estruch R, Ros E, Salas-Salvad\u00f3 J, Covas MI, Corella D, Ar\u00f3s F, et al. Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease with a Mediterranean diet. N Engl J Med. 2018;368(14):1279\u201390.","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"issue":"8","key":"661_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"488","DOI":"10.7326\/0003-4819-152-8-201004200-00005","volume":"152","author":"RJ Glynn","year":"2010","unstructured":"Glynn RJ, Koenig W, Nordestgaard BG, Shepherd J, Ridker PM. Rosuvastatin for primary prevention in older individuals with high C-reactive protein and low LDL levels: exploratory analysis of a randomized trial. Ann Intern Med. 2010;152(8):488.","journal-title":"Ann Intern Med"},{"issue":"11","key":"661_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1659","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amjcard.2007.09.072","volume":"100","author":"PM Ridker","year":"2007","unstructured":"Ridker PM, Fonseca F, Genest J, Gotto AM, Kastelein JJ, Khurmi NS, et al. Baseline characteristics of participants in the JUPITER trial, a randomized placebo-controlled primary prevention trial of statin therapy among individuals with low low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and elevated high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. Am J Cardiol. 2007;100(11):1659\u201364.","journal-title":"Am J Cardiol"},{"issue":"21","key":"661_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2032","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1600177","volume":"374","author":"S Yusuf","year":"2016","unstructured":"Yusuf S, Lonn E, Pais P, Bosch J, L\u00f3pez-Jaramillo P, Zhu J, et al. Blood-pressure and cholesterol lowering in persons without cardiovascular disease. N Engl J Med. 2016;374(21):2032\u201343.","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"issue":"1","key":"661_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1812792","volume":"380","author":"DL Bhatt","year":"2019","unstructured":"Bhatt DL, Steg P, Miller M, Brinton EA, Jacobson TA, Ketchum SB, et al. Cardiovascular risk reduction with Icosapent Ethyl for hypertriglyceridemia. N Engl J Med. 2019;380(1):11\u201322.","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"issue":"4","key":"661_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"755","DOI":"10.1177\/1741826711409327","volume":"19","author":"SS Anand","year":"2012","unstructured":"Anand SS, Dagenais G, Mohan V, Diaz R, Probstfield J, Freeman R, et al. Glucose levels are associated with cardiovascular disease and death in an international cohort of normal glycaemic and dysglycaemic men and women: the EpiDREAM cohort study. Eur J Prev Cardiol. 2012;19(4):755\u201364.","journal-title":"Eur J Prev Cardiol"},{"issue":"22","key":"661_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2557","DOI":"10.1001\/archinte.162.22.2557","volume":"162","author":"T Kurth","year":"2002","unstructured":"Kurth T, Gaziano J, Berger K, Kase CS, Rexrode KM, Cook NR, et al. Body mass index and the risk of stroke in men. Arch Intern Med. 2002;162(22):2557\u201362.","journal-title":"Arch Intern Med"},{"issue":"8","key":"661_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1498","DOI":"10.1161\/01.ATV.0000134293.31512.be","volume":"24","author":"G Engstr\u00f6m","year":"2004","unstructured":"Engstr\u00f6m G, Hedblad B, Stavenow L, Jonsson S, Lind P, Janzon L, et al. Incidence of obesity-associated cardiovascular disease is related to inflammation-sensitive plasma proteins: a population-based cohort study. Arterioscler Thromb Vasc Biol. 2004;24(8):1498\u2013502.","journal-title":"Arterioscler Thromb Vasc Biol"},{"issue":"1","key":"661_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"15","DOI":"10.1001\/jamainternmed.2013.10522","volume":"174","author":"M Thomsen","year":"2014","unstructured":"Thomsen M, Nordestgaard B. Myocardial infarction and ischemic heart disease in overweight and obesity with and without metabolic syndrome. JAMA Intern Med. 2014;174(1):15\u201322.","journal-title":"JAMA Intern Med"},{"issue":"1","key":"661_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"173","DOI":"10.1186\/s12933-021-01360-0","volume":"20","author":"A Ceriello","year":"2021","unstructured":"Ceriello A, Lucisano G, Prattichizzo F, Eliasson B, Franz\u00e9n S, Svensson AM, et al. Variability in body weight and the risk of cardiovascular complications in type 2 diabetes: results from the Swedish National Diabetes Register. Cardiovasc Diabetol. 2021;20(1):173.","journal-title":"Cardiovasc Diabetol"},{"issue":"6","key":"661_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2015-007599","volume":"5","author":"A Rawshani","year":"2015","unstructured":"Rawshani A, Svensson A, Rosengren A, Zethelius B, Eliasson B, Gudbj\u00f6rnsdottir S. Impact of ethnicity on progress of glycaemic control in 131,935 newly diagnosed patients with type 2 diabetes: a nationwide observational study from the Swedish National Diabetes Register. BMJ Open. 2015;5(6):e007599.","journal-title":"BMJ Open"},{"issue":"15","key":"661_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1577","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa0806470","volume":"359","author":"RR Holman","year":"2008","unstructured":"Holman RR, Paul S, Bethel MA, Matthews DR, Neil HA. 10-year follow-up of intensive glucose control in type 2 diabetes. N Engl J Med. 2008;359(15):1577\u201389.","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"key":"661_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2375","DOI":"10.2147\/DMSO.S260990","volume":"13","author":"CL Chen","year":"2020","unstructured":"Chen CL, Liu L, Huang JY, Yu YL, Lo K, Huang YQ, et al. Systolic blood pressure, cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality in normoglycemia, prediabetes, and diabetes. Diabetes Metab Syndr Obes. 2020;13:2375\u201388.","journal-title":"Diabetes Metab Syndr Obes"},{"issue":"2","key":"661_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"145","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1212914","volume":"369","author":"RR Wing","year":"2013","unstructured":"Look AHEAD Research Group, Wing RR, Bolin P, Brancati FL, Bray GA, Clark JM, et al. Cardiovascular effects of intensive lifestyle intervention in type 2 diabetes. N Engl J Med. 2013;369(2):145\u201354.","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"issue":"9435","key":"661_CR35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"685","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(04)16895-5","volume":"364","author":"HM Colhoun","year":"2004","unstructured":"Colhoun HM, Betteridge D, Durrington PN, Hitman GA, Neil HA, Livingstone SJ, et al. Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease with atorvastatin in type 2 diabetes in the Collaborative Atorvastatin Diabetes Study (CARDS): multicentre randomised placebo-controlled trial. Lancet. 2004;364(9435):685\u201396.","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"7","key":"661_CR36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1478","DOI":"10.2337\/dc05-2415","volume":"29","author":"RH Knopp","year":"2006","unstructured":"Knopp RH, d\u2019Emden M, Smilde JG, Pocock SJ. Efficacy and safety of Atorvastatin in the prevention of cardiovascular end points in subjects with type 2 diabetes: the Atorvastatin study for prevention of coronary heart disease endpoints in non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (ASPEN). Diabetes Care. 2006;29(7):1478\u201385.","journal-title":"Diabetes Care"},{"issue":"7","key":"661_CR37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCEP.118.006273","volume":"11","author":"S Khurshid","year":"2018","unstructured":"Khurshid S, Choi S, Weng LC, Wang EY, Trinquart L, Benjamin EJ, et al. Frequency of cardiac rhythm abnormalities in a half million adults. Circ Arrhythm Electrophysiol. 2018;11(7):e006273.","journal-title":"Circ Arrhythm Electrophysiol"},{"issue":"9131","key":"661_CR38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"837","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(98)07019-6","volume":"352","author":"UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Group","year":"1998","unstructured":"UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Group. Intensive blood-glucose control with sulphonylureas or insulin compared with conventional treatment and risk of complications in patients with type 2 diabetes (UKPDS 33). Lancet. 1998;352(9131):837\u201353.","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"1","key":"661_CR39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"47","DOI":"10.1016\/S0168-8227(96)01329-0","volume":"34","author":"A Sasaki","year":"1996","unstructured":"Sasaki A, Uehara M, Horiuchi N, Hasegawa K, Shimizu T. A 15 year follow-up study of patients with non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) in Osaka, Japan long-term prognosis and causes of death. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 1996;34(1):47\u201355.","journal-title":"Diabetes Res Clin Pract"},{"issue":"10193","key":"661_CR40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"121","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(19)31149-3","volume":"394","author":"HC Gerstein","year":"2019","unstructured":"Gerstein HC, Colhoun H, Dagenais GR, Diaz R, Lakshmanan M, Pais P, et al. Dulaglutide and cardiovascular outcomes in type 2 diabetes (REWIND): a double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial. Lancet. 2019;394(10193):121\u201330.","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"15","key":"661_CR41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1425","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa2004967","volume":"383","author":"CP Cannon","year":"2020","unstructured":"Cannon CP, Pratley R, Dagogo-Jack S, Mancuso J, Huyck S, Masiukiewicz U, et al. Cardiovascular outcomes with Ertugliflozin in type 2 diabetes. N Engl J Med. 2020;383(15):1425\u201335.","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"issue":"12","key":"661_CR42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1155","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2019.13772","volume":"322","author":"J Rosenstock","year":"2019","unstructured":"Rosenstock J, Kahn S, Johansen OE, Zinman B, Espeland MA, Woerle HJ, et al. Effect of Linagliptin vs Glimepiride on major adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes: the CAROLINA randomized clinical trial. JAMA. 2019;322(12):1155\u201366.","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"issue":"4","key":"661_CR43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"347","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1812389","volume":"380","author":"SD Wiviott","year":"2019","unstructured":"Wiviott SD, Raz I, Bonaca MP, Mosenzon O, Kato ET, Cahn A, et al. Dapagliflozin and cardiovascular outcomes in type 2 diabetes. N Engl J Med. 2019;380(4):347\u201357.","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"issue":"5","key":"661_CR44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1102","DOI":"10.1111\/dom.13217","volume":"20","author":"I Raz","year":"2018","unstructured":"Raz I, Mosenzon O, Bonaca MP, Cahn A, Kato ET, Silverman MG, et al. DECLARE-TIMI 58: participants\u2019 baseline characteristics. Diabetes Obes Metab. 2018;20(5):1102\u201310.","journal-title":"Diabetes Obes Metab"},{"issue":"18","key":"661_CR45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1343","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM200105033441801","volume":"344","author":"J Tuomilehto","year":"2001","unstructured":"Tuomilehto J, Lindstr\u00f6m J, Eriksson JG, Valle TT, H\u00e4m\u00e4l\u00e4inen H, Ilanne-Parikka P, et al. Prevention of type 2 diabetes mellitus by changes in lifestyle among subjects with impaired glucose tolerance. N Engl J Med. 2001;344(18):1343\u201350.","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"key":"661_CR46","unstructured":"Office for National Statistics. National life tables - life expectancy in the UK: 2020 to 2022 2024 [Date accessed: 19 March 2025]. Available from: https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/peoplepopulationandcommunity\/birthsdeathsandmarriages\/lifeexpectancies\/bulletins\/nationallifetablesunitedkingdom\/2020to2022."},{"issue":"10","key":"661_CR47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1747","DOI":"10.1007\/s00125-004-1527-z","volume":"47","author":"P Clarke","year":"2004","unstructured":"Clarke P, Gray A, Briggs A, et al. A model to estimate the lifetime health outcomes of patients with type 2 diabetes: the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model (UKPDS no. 68). Diabetologia. 2004;47(10):1747\u201359.","journal-title":"Diabetologia"},{"issue":"9","key":"661_CR48","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1527","DOI":"10.2337\/dc16-0227","volume":"39","author":"KM Pantalone","year":"2016","unstructured":"Pantalone KM, Wells BJ, Chagin KM, Ejzykowicz F, Yu C, Milinovich A, et al. Intensification of diabetes therapy and time until A1C goal attainment among patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes who fail metformin monotherapy within a Large Integrated Health System. Diabetes Care. 2016;39(9):1527\u201334.","journal-title":"Diabetes Care"},{"key":"661_CR49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/2042018819844694","volume":"10","author":"S Khunti","year":"2019","unstructured":"Khunti S, Khunti K, Seidu S. Therapeutic inertia in type 2 diabetes: prevalence, causes, consequences and methods to overcome inertia. Ther Adv Endocrinol Metab. 2019;10:2042018819844694.","journal-title":"Ther Adv Endocrinol Metab"},{"issue":"5","key":"661_CR50","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2896","DOI":"10.1111\/dom.16288","volume":"27","author":"A Bhattacharjee","year":"2025","unstructured":"Bhattacharjee A, Ali MR, Kloecker D, Ling S, Balasubramanian GV, Gillies C, et al. Five-year trajectories of HbA1c by age, sex, ethnicity and deprivation in adults with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes: observational study in England. Diabetes Obes Metab. 2025;27(5):2896\u2013900.","journal-title":"Diabetes Obes Metab"},{"issue":"3","key":"661_CR51","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"375","DOI":"10.1007\/s40273-016-0471-3","volume":"35","author":"M Willis","year":"2017","unstructured":"Willis M, Johansen P, Nilsson A, Asseburg C. Validation of the economic and health outcomes model of type 2 diabetes mellitus (ECHO-T2DM). Pharmacoeconomics. 2017;35(3):375\u201396.","journal-title":"Pharmacoeconomics"},{"key":"661_CR52","unstructured":"National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Semaglutide for managing overweight and obesity [ID3850]. Committee Papers. 2022."},{"issue":"7","key":"661_CR53","first-page":"740","volume":"28","author":"N Kim","year":"2022","unstructured":"Kim N, Wang J, Burudpakdee C, Song Y, Ramasamy A, Xie Y, et al. Cost-effectiveness analysis of semaglutide 2.4 mg for the treatment of adult patients with overweight and obesity in the United States. J Manag Care Spec Pharm. 2022;28(7):740\u201352.","journal-title":"J Manag Care Spec Pharm"},{"key":"661_CR54","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.j2099","volume":"357","author":"J Hippisley-Cox","year":"2017","unstructured":"Hippisley-Cox J, Coupland C, Brindle P. Development and validation of QRISK3 risk prediction algorithms to estimate future risk of cardiovascular disease: prospective cohort study. BMJ. 2017;357:j2099.","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"issue":"10","key":"661_CR55","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1293","DOI":"10.1007\/s11136-009-9541-8","volume":"18","author":"F S\u00f8ltoft","year":"2009","unstructured":"S\u00f8ltoft F, Hammer M, Kragh N. The association of body mass index and health-related quality of life in the general population: data from the 2003 Health Survey of England. Qual Life Res. 2009;18(10):1293\u20139.","journal-title":"Qual Life Res"},{"issue":"6","key":"661_CR56","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"657","DOI":"10.1586\/14737167.4.6.657","volume":"4","author":"S Dixon","year":"2004","unstructured":"Dixon S, Currie CJ, McEwan P. Utility values for obesity and preliminary analysis of the Health Outcomes Data Repository. Expert Rev Pharmacoecon Outcomes Res. 2004;4(6):657\u201365.","journal-title":"Expert Rev Pharmacoecon Outcomes Res"},{"issue":"10481","key":"661_CR57","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"813","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(25)00355-1","volume":"405","author":"M Ng","year":"2025","unstructured":"Ng M, Gakidou E, Lo J, Abate YH, Abbafati C, Abbas N, et al. Global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity, 1990\u20132021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet. 2025;405(10481):813\u201338.","journal-title":"The Lancet"},{"key":"661_CR58","unstructured":"National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Methods for the development of NICE public health guidance (third edition) 2012 [Date accessed: 25 April 2025]. Available from: https:\/\/www.nice.org.uk\/process\/pmg4\/chapter\/incorporating-health-economics."},{"issue":"2","key":"661_CR59","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"219","DOI":"10.1007\/s40273-025-01555-3","volume":"44","author":"CG Fawsitt","year":"2025","unstructured":"Fawsitt CG, Thom H, Aceituno D, Jarde A, Larsen S, L\u00fcbker C, et al. External validation of the MicroSimulation Core Obesity Model (MS-COM) to predict cardiovascular outcomes, mortality and type 2 diabetes mellitus incidence and assess cost effectiveness. Pharmacoeconomics. 2025;44(2):219\u201331.","journal-title":"Pharmacoeconomics"},{"issue":"5","key":"661_CR60","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2807","DOI":"10.1002\/ehf2.14390","volume":"10","author":"AP Ofstad","year":"2023","unstructured":"Ofstad AP, Brunborg C, Johansen OE, M\u00f8rkedal B, Fagerland MW, Laugsand LE, et al. Development of a tool to predict the risk of incident heart failure in a general population: the HUNT for HF risk score. ESC Heart Fail. 2023;10(5):2807\u201315.","journal-title":"ESC Heart Fail."},{"issue":"7","key":"661_CR61","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jval.2016.09.147","volume":"19","author":"V Foos","year":"2016","unstructured":"Foos V, McEwan P, Lamotte M. Implications of introducing patient heterogeneity in cost effectiveness modeling. Value Health. 2016;19(7):A371.","journal-title":"Value Health"},{"issue":"25","key":"661_CR62","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2439","DOI":"10.1093\/eurheartj\/ehab309","volume":"42","author":"SCORE2 Working Group","year":"2021","unstructured":"SCORE2 Working Group. SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe. Eur Heart J. 2021;42(25):2439\u201354.","journal-title":"Eur Heart J"},{"key":"661_CR63","unstructured":"American Heart Association. Predicting Risk of cardiovascular disease EVENTs (American Heart Association PREVENT\u2122) 2025 [Date accessed: 28 November 2025]. Available from: https:\/\/professional.heart.org\/en\/guidelines-and-statements\/about-prevent-calculator."}],"container-title":["PharmacoEconomics - Open"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s41669-026-00661-y.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s41669-026-00661-y","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s41669-026-00661-y.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,17]],"date-time":"2026-07-17T23:02:04Z","timestamp":1784329324000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s41669-026-00661-y"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,24]]},"references-count":63,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,7]]}},"alternative-id":["661"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s41669-026-00661-y","relation":{},"ISSN":["2509-4262","2509-4254"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2509-4262","type":"print"},{"value":"2509-4254","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,24]]},"assertion":[{"value":"26 September 2025","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"10 May 2026","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"24 May 2026","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"AS is an employee of Boehringer Ingelheim. BM has received consulting honoraria in relation to the conceptualisation and design of the model and the conduct of this study. \u00a0SS, CS and MA are employees of Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd, who received funding from Boehringer Ingelheim in relation to the conduct of this study. ME has received honoraria grants from Novo Nordisk, Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly and Daiichi Sankyo.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","label":"Conflict of interest","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"Data supporting the findings of this study are available within the paper and its supplementary materials.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","label":"Data availability statement","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","label":"Ethical approval","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"A simplified version of the model was provided to the manuscript reviewers during the peer review process; however, the model and any associated code are proprietary and will not be available in the public domain.","order":4,"name":"Ethics","label":"Code availability","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":5,"name":"Ethics","label":"Consent to participate","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":6,"name":"Ethics","label":"Consent for publication","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"AS and BM conceptualised and designed the study. All authors contributed to data analysis, interpretation of the results and preparation and review of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final version of the manuscript for publication.","order":7,"name":"Ethics","label":"Author contributions","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}}]}}