{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,21]],"date-time":"2026-09-21T13:02:33Z","timestamp":1789995753552,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":44,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,29]],"date-time":"2026-06-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1782691200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,29]],"date-time":"2026-06-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1782691200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004334","name":"Merck","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004334","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PharmacoEconomics Open"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9]]},"DOI":"10.1007\/s41669-026-00665-8","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,29]],"date-time":"2026-06-29T13:43:36Z","timestamp":1782740616000},"page":"887-896","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Estimating the Long-Term Clinical and Economic Impact of Universal Varicella Vaccination in Portugal Using a Dynamic Transmission Model"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"10","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0393-0767","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Colleen","family":"Burgess","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7915-8553","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Stephanie A.","family":"Kujawski","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0008-0400-8305","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Miguel","family":"Amorim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1770-2995","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"John C.","family":"Lang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"665_CR1","unstructured":"European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Varicella (chickenpox). https:\/\/www.ecdc.europa.eu\/en\/varicella-chickenpox. Accessed 2 Aug."},{"key":"665_CR2","unstructured":"US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. About shingles (herpes zoster). https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/shingles\/about\/index.html. Accessed 2 Aug."},{"key":"665_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"466","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-015-1753-y","volume":"15","author":"H Bricout","year":"2015","unstructured":"Bricout H, Haugh M, Olatunde O, Prieto RG. Herpes zoster-associated mortality in Europe: a systematic review. BMC Public Health. 2015;15:466.","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"issue":"8","key":"665_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"856","DOI":"10.1542\/hpeds.2020-004275","volume":"11","author":"J Fontoura-Matias","year":"2021","unstructured":"Fontoura-Matias J, Moreira RS, Reis-Melo A, Freitas A, Azevedo I. Varicella admissions in children and adolescents in Portugal: 2000\u20132015. Hosp Pediatr. 2021;11(8):856\u201364.","journal-title":"Hosp Pediatr"},{"issue":"5","key":"665_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"531","DOI":"10.20344\/amp.312","volume":"26","author":"M Mesquita","year":"2013","unstructured":"Mesquita M, Froes F. Hospital admissions for herpes zoster in Portugal between 2000 and 2010. Acta Med Port. 2013;26(5):531\u20136.","journal-title":"Acta Med Port"},{"issue":"10","key":"665_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1772","DOI":"10.1080\/03007995.2022.2091334","volume":"38","author":"M Pawaskar","year":"2022","unstructured":"Pawaskar M, Siddiqui MK, Takyar J, Sharma A, Fergie J. Relative efficacy of varicella vaccines: network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. Curr Med Res Opin. 2022;38(10):1772\u201382.","journal-title":"Curr Med Res Opin"},{"issue":"6","key":"665_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1182","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2022.12.011","volume":"41","author":"F Rodrigues","year":"2023","unstructured":"Rodrigues F, Marlow R, Gouveia C, et al. Prospective study of loss of health-related quality adjusted life years in children and their families due to uncomplicated and hospitalised varicella. Vaccine. 2023;41(6):1182\u20139.","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"issue":"1","key":"665_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"353","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-017-2445-2","volume":"17","author":"M Riera-Montes","year":"2017","unstructured":"Riera-Montes M, Bollaerts K, Heininger U, et al. Estimation of the burden of varicella in Europe before the introduction of universal childhood immunization. BMC Infect Dis. 2017;17(1):353.","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis"},{"issue":"1","key":"665_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2312","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-021-12343-x","volume":"21","author":"M Pawaskar","year":"2021","unstructured":"Pawaskar M, Meroc E, Samant S, et al. Economic burden of varicella in Europe in the absence of universal varicella vaccination. BMC Public Health. 2021;21(1):2312.","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"issue":"1","key":"665_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"143","DOI":"10.1007\/s40121-022-00717-6","volume":"12","author":"M Corcuera-Munguia","year":"2023","unstructured":"Corcuera-Munguia M, Gil-Prieto R, Garcia-Carretero R, Gil-de-Miguel A. Hospitalization burden related to Herpes Zoster infection in Spain (2016\u20132019). Infect Dis Ther. 2023;12(1):143\u201356.","journal-title":"Infect Dis Ther"},{"issue":"3","key":"665_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1542\/peds.2015-3741","volume":"137","author":"M Marin","year":"2016","unstructured":"Marin M, Marti M, Kambhampati A, Jeram SM, Seward JF. Global varicella vaccine effectiveness: a meta-analysis. Pediatrics. 2016;137(3):e20153741.","journal-title":"Pediatrics"},{"issue":"3","key":"665_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"645","DOI":"10.1080\/21645515.2018.1546525","volume":"15","author":"FH Varela","year":"2019","unstructured":"Varela FH, Pinto LA, Scotta MC. Global impact of varicella vaccination programs. Hum Vaccines Immunother. 2019;15(3):645\u201357.","journal-title":"Hum Vaccines Immunother"},{"key":"665_CR13","unstructured":"European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Vaccine scheduler. https:\/\/vaccine-schedule.ecdc.europa.eu\/. Accessed 4 Apr."},{"issue":"19-20","key":"665_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2500","DOI":"10.1016\/S0264-410X(02)00180-9","volume":"20","author":"M Brisson","year":"2002","unstructured":"Brisson M, Gay NJ, Edmunds WJ, Andrews NJ. Exposure to varicella boosts immunity to herpes-zoster: implications for mass vaccination against chickenpox. Vaccine. 2002;20(19\u201320):2500\u20137.","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"issue":"1","key":"665_CR15","first-page":"9","volume":"58","author":"RE Hope-Simpson","year":"1965","unstructured":"Hope-Simpson RE. The nature of Herpes Zoster: a long-term study and a new hypothesis. Proc R Soc Med. 1965;58(1):9\u201320.","journal-title":"Proc R Soc Med"},{"issue":"8","key":"665_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"833","DOI":"10.1080\/14760584.2017.1343669","volume":"16","author":"P Wutzler","year":"2017","unstructured":"Wutzler P, Bonanni P, Burgess M, Gershon A, Safadi MA, Casabona G. Varicella vaccination\u2014the global experience. Expert Rev Vaccines. 2017;16(8):833\u201343.","journal-title":"Expert Rev Vaccines"},{"key":"665_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.l6987","volume":"368","author":"H Forbes","year":"2020","unstructured":"Forbes H, Douglas I, Finn A, et al. Risk of herpes zoster after exposure to varicella to explore the exogenous boosting hypothesis: self controlled case series study using UK electronic healthcare data. BMJ. 2020;368:l6987.","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"issue":"8","key":"665_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"793","DOI":"10.1080\/14760584.2019.1646129","volume":"18","author":"R Harpaz","year":"2019","unstructured":"Harpaz R. Do varicella vaccination programs change the epidemiology of herpes zoster? A comprehensive review, with focus on the United States. Expert Rev Vaccines. 2019;18(8):793\u2013811.","journal-title":"Expert Rev Vaccines"},{"issue":"Suppl 4","key":"665_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S470","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jiac255","volume":"226","author":"J Leung","year":"2022","unstructured":"Leung J, Dooling K, Marin M, Anderson TC, Harpaz R. The impact of universal varicella vaccination on Herpes Zoster incidence in the United States: comparison of birth cohorts preceding and following varicella vaccination program launch. J Infect Dis. 2022;226(Suppl 4):S470\u20137.","journal-title":"J Infect Dis"},{"issue":"4","key":"665_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pgph.0001743","volume":"3","author":"C Burgess","year":"2023","unstructured":"Burgess C, Samant S, leFevre T, Schade Larsen C, Pawaskar M. Universal varicella vaccination in Denmark: modeling public health impact, age-shift, and cost-effectiveness. PLOS Glob Public Health. 2023;3(4):e0001743.","journal-title":"PLOS Glob Public Health"},{"key":"665_CR21","unstructured":"Instituto Nacional de Estat\u00edstica. Estat\u00edsticas Demogr\u00e1ficas - 2021. https:\/\/www.ine.pt\/xportal\/xmain?xpid=INE&xpgid=ine_publicacoes&PUBLICACOESpub_boui=13932532&PUBLICACOESmodo=2. Accessed 26 July."},{"key":"665_CR22","unstructured":"Freitas MG, Paix\u00e3o MT. Avalia\u00e7\u00e3o do Programa Nacional de Vacina\u00e7\u00e3o: 2\u00ba Inqu\u00e9rito Serol\u00f3gico Nacional Portugal Continental 2001-2002. Available at: https:\/\/www.dgs.pt\/upload\/membro.id\/ficheiros\/i009552.pdf. Accessed 27 June."},{"key":"665_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"463","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-13-463","volume":"13","author":"N Morant-Talamante","year":"2013","unstructured":"Morant-Talamante N, Diez-Domingo J, Martinez-Ubeda S, Puig-Barbera J, Aleman-Sanchez S, Perez-Breva L. Herpes zoster surveillance using electronic databases in the Valencian Community (Spain). BMC Infect Dis. 2013;13:463.","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis"},{"key":"665_CR24","unstructured":"Dire\u00e7\u00e3o-Geral da Sa\u00fade. Relat\u00f3rio S\u00edntese Anual da Vacina\u00e7\u00e3o. https:\/\/www.dgs.pt\/paginas-de-sistema\/saude-de-a-a-z\/programa-nacional-de-vacinacao\/relatorios-e-publicacoes.aspx. Accessed 6 Feb."},{"issue":"29","key":"665_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3954","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2022.05.003","volume":"40","author":"M Pillsbury","year":"2022","unstructured":"Pillsbury M, Carias C, Samant S, Greenberg D, Pawaskar M. Comparison of performance of varicella vaccines via infectious disease modeling. Vaccine. 2022;40(29):3954\u201362.","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"issue":"10","key":"665_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"862","DOI":"10.1136\/adc.88.10.862","volume":"88","author":"M Brisson","year":"2003","unstructured":"Brisson M, Edmunds W. Varicella vaccination in England and Wales: cost-utility analysis. Arch Dis Child. 2003;88(10):862\u20139.","journal-title":"Arch Dis Child"},{"issue":"49","key":"665_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"8326","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2007.09.066","volume":"25","author":"JM Pellissier","year":"2007","unstructured":"Pellissier JM, Brisson M, Levin MJ. Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness in the United States of a vaccine to prevent herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia in older adults. Vaccine. 2007;25(49):8326\u201337.","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"issue":"6","key":"665_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"356","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jpain.2005.01.359","volume":"6","author":"G Oster","year":"2005","unstructured":"Oster G, Harding G, Dukes E, Edelsberg J, Cleary PD. Pain, medication use, and health-related quality of life in older persons with postherpetic neuralgia: results from a population-based survey. J Pain. 2005;6(6):356\u201363.","journal-title":"J Pain"},{"key":"665_CR29","unstructured":"Instituto Nacional de Estat\u00edstica. Labour market. https:\/\/www.ine.pt\/xportal\/xmain?xpgid=ine_tema&xpid=INE&tema_cod=1114."},{"key":"665_CR30","unstructured":"Perelman J, Soares M, Mateus C, et al. Methodological guidelines for economic evaluation studies: INFARMED\u2014National Authority of Medicines and Health Products, I.P., Lisbon. 2019."},{"issue":"1","key":"665_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1003968","volume":"11","author":"I Andrianakis","year":"2015","unstructured":"Andrianakis I, Vernon IR, McCreesh N, et al. Bayesian history matching of complex infectious disease models using emulation: a tutorial and a case study on HIV in Uganda. PLoS Comput Biol. 2015;11(1):e1003968.","journal-title":"PLoS Comput Biol"},{"issue":"1","key":"665_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-020-05632-0","volume":"21","author":"P Cody","year":"2021","unstructured":"Cody P, Tobe K, Abe M, Elbasha EH. Public health impact and cost effectiveness of routine and catch-up vaccination of girls and women with a nine-valent HPV vaccine in Japan: a model-based study. BMC Infect Dis. 2021;21(1):11.","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis"},{"key":"665_CR33","unstructured":"The World Bank. Portugal. https:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/country\/portugal. Accessed 16 Apr."},{"issue":"11","key":"665_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e3617","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/ciaa1708","volume":"73","author":"EIH Akpo","year":"2021","unstructured":"Akpo EIH, Cristeau O, Hunjan M, Casabona G. Epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of varicella vaccination strategies in the United Kingdom. Clin Infect Dis. 2021;73(11):e3617\u201326.","journal-title":"Clin Infect Dis"},{"key":"665_CR35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"273","DOI":"10.2147\/CEOR.S229685","volume":"12","author":"C Azzari","year":"2020","unstructured":"Azzari C, Baldo V, Giuffrida S, et al. The cost-effectiveness of universal varicella vaccination in Italy: a model-based assessment of vaccination strategies. Clinicoecon Outcomes Res. 2020;12:273\u201383.","journal-title":"Clinicoecon Outcomes Res"},{"issue":"6","key":"665_CR36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e217","DOI":"10.1097\/INF.0000000000003136","volume":"40","author":"U Heininger","year":"2021","unstructured":"Heininger U, Pillsbury M, Samant S, et al. Health impact and cost-effectiveness assessment for the introduction of universal varicella vaccination in Switzerland. Pediatr Infect Dis J. 2021;40(6):e217\u201321.","journal-title":"Pediatr Infect Dis J"},{"issue":"47\u201348","key":"665_CR37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"6980","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2006.04.051","volume":"24","author":"X Lenne","year":"2006","unstructured":"Lenne X, Diez Domingo J, Gil A, Ridao M, Lluch JA, Dervaux B. Economic evaluation of varicella vaccination in Spain: results from a dynamic model. Vaccine. 2006;24(47\u201348):6980\u20139.","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"issue":"Suppl 4","key":"665_CR38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S407","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jiac242","volume":"226","author":"M Marin","year":"2022","unstructured":"Marin M, Lopez AS, Melgar M, Dooling K, Curns AT, Leung J. Decline in severe varicella disease during the United States varicella vaccination program: hospitalizations and deaths, 1990\u20132019. J Infect Dis. 2022;226(Suppl 4):S407\u201315.","journal-title":"J Infect Dis"},{"issue":"7","key":"665_CR39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0254080","volume":"16","author":"M Pawaskar","year":"2021","unstructured":"Pawaskar M, Burgess C, Pillsbury M, Wisloff T, Flem E. Clinical and economic impact of universal varicella vaccination in Norway: a modeling study. PLoS ONE. 2021;16(7):e0254080.","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"key":"665_CR40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/vaccines10091416","author":"O Sharomi","year":"2022","unstructured":"Sharomi O, Xausa I, Nachbar R, et al. Modeling the impact of exogenous boosting and universal varicella vaccination on the clinical and economic burden of varicella and herpes zoster in a dynamic population for England and Wales. Vaccines. 2022. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/vaccines10091416.","journal-title":"Vaccines"},{"key":"665_CR41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"533","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-015-1861-8","volume":"15","author":"O Damm","year":"2015","unstructured":"Damm O, Ultsch B, Horn J, Mikolajczyk RT, Greiner W, Wichmann O. Systematic review of models assessing the economic value of routine varicella and herpes zoster vaccination in high-income countries. BMC Public Health. 2015;15:533.","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"issue":"8","key":"665_CR42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0220921","volume":"14","author":"LJ Wolfson","year":"2019","unstructured":"Wolfson LJ, Daniels VJ, Pillsbury M, et al. Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal varicella vaccination in Turkey using a dynamic transmission model. PLoS ONE. 2019;14(8):e0220921.","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"issue":"3","key":"665_CR43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0282327","volume":"18","author":"R Anderson","year":"2023","unstructured":"Anderson R, Kim S, Roberts N, Petrou S. Systematic review of economic evaluations of varicella vaccination programmes. PLoS ONE. 2023;18(3):e0282327.","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"key":"665_CR44","unstructured":"Eurostat. Population structure indicators at national level. https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/eurostat\/databrowser\/view\/DEMO_PJANIND__custom_6853095\/default\/table?lang=en. Accessed 7 Aug."}],"container-title":["PharmacoEconomics - Open"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s41669-026-00665-8.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s41669-026-00665-8","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s41669-026-00665-8.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,21]],"date-time":"2026-09-21T12:11:38Z","timestamp":1789992698000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s41669-026-00665-8"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,29]]},"references-count":44,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9]]}},"alternative-id":["665"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s41669-026-00665-8","relation":{},"ISSN":["2509-4262","2509-4254"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2509-4262","type":"print"},{"value":"2509-4254","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,29]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2 September 2025","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"1 June 2026","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"29 June 2026","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"This work was supported by Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC, a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","label":"Funding","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"JCL is an employee of Merck Canada Inc., a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA. CB is a contractor with Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC, a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA, and was compensated for her work. MA is an employee of MSD (Portugal) Lda., a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA. SAK is an employee of Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC, a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA. JCL, MA, and SAK may hold stock and\/or stock options in Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","label":"Conflict of Interest","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"The data underlying this article are available in the article and in its online resources.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","label":"Availability of Data and materials","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":4,"name":"Ethics","label":"Ethics Approval","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":5,"name":"Ethics","label":"Consent to Participate","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":6,"name":"Ethics","label":"Consent to Publish","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"Conceptualization: SAK, MA, and JCL. Methodology: CB, SAK, and JCL. Data curation\/software\/formal analysis\/visualization: CB and JCL. Validation: CB, SAK, MA, and JCL. Investigation: CB, SAK, and JCL. Writing\u00a0\u2013 original draft: CB and SAK. Writing\u00a0\u2013 review and editing: CB, SAK, MA, and JCL.","order":7,"name":"Ethics","label":"Author Contributions","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"The Mathematica model is not publicly shared. Additional details necessary to reproduce the analyses are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.","order":8,"name":"Ethics","label":"Code Availability","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}}]}}