{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,8]],"date-time":"2026-01-08T09:26:01Z","timestamp":1767864361891,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":35,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,5]],"date-time":"2021-06-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1622851200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,5]],"date-time":"2021-06-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1622851200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"name":"Spanish Ministry of Education","award":["grant number ECO2010-20829"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["grant number ECO2010-20829"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["J Popul Econ"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>We document and analyse the wage gap between vocational and general secondary education in Portugal between 1994 and 2013. As Portuguese workers have been educated in different school systems, we have to distinguish between birth cohorts. Analysing the wage gaps within cohorts, we find no support for either the human capital prediction of crossing wage profiles or the hypothesis that general graduates increasingly outperform vocational graduates in late career. We discover that the lifecycle wage profiles have shifted over time. We link the pattern of shifting cohort profiles to changes in the school system and in the structure of labour demand. We conclude that assessing the relative value of vocational education requires assessing how the vocational curriculum responds to changes in economic structure and technology. We show that the decline in assortative matching between workers and firms has benefited vocationally educated workers.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s00148-021-00846-1","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,5]],"date-time":"2021-06-05T21:02:26Z","timestamp":1622926946000},"page":"643-675","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Fluctuations in the wage gap between vocational and general secondary education: lessons from Portugal"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"35","author":[{"given":"Joop","family":"Hartog","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Pedro","family":"Raposo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Hugo","family":"Reis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,5]]},"reference":[{"issue":"2","key":"846_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"251","DOI":"10.1111\/1468-0262.00020","volume":"67","author":"JM Abowd","year":"1999","unstructured":"Abowd J M, Kramarz F, Margolis D N (1999) High wage workers and high wage firms. Econometrica 67(2):251\u2013333","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"key":"846_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Acemoglu D, Angrist J (2001) How large are human-capital externalities? Evidence from compulsory-schooling laws. In: NBER macroeconomics annual 2000, vol 15. National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, pp 9\u201374","DOI":"10.1086\/654403"},{"issue":"453","key":"846_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"F112","DOI":"10.1111\/1468-0297.00405","volume":"109","author":"D Acemoglu","year":"1999","unstructured":"Acemoglu D, Pischke J (1999) Beyond Becker: training in imperfect labour markets. Econ J 109(453):F112\u2013F142","journal-title":"Econ J"},{"issue":"4","key":"846_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"979","DOI":"10.2307\/2937954","volume":"106","author":"J Angrist","year":"1991","unstructured":"Angrist J, Krueger A B (1991) Does compulsory school attendance affect schooling and earnings? Q J Econ 106(4):979\u20131014","journal-title":"Q J Econ"},{"key":"846_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Becker G (1994) Human capital\u2014a theoretical and empirical analysis, with special reference to education. The University Chicago Press","DOI":"10.7208\/chicago\/9780226041223.001.0001"},{"issue":"31","key":"846_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"379","DOI":"10.1111\/1468-0327.00065","volume":"15","author":"GP Bover","year":"2000","unstructured":"Bover G P, Portugal P (2000) Iberian labour markets: why Portugal and Spain are OECD outliers. Econ Policy 15(31):379\u2013428","journal-title":"Econ Policy"},{"key":"846_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"315","DOI":"10.1007\/s13209-017-0163-z","volume":"8","author":"G Brunello","year":"2017","unstructured":"Brunello G, Rocco L (2017a) The effects of vocational education on adult skills, employment and wages: what can we learn from PIAAC? SERIEs 8:315\u2013343","journal-title":"SERIEs"},{"issue":"1","key":"846_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"106","DOI":"10.1086\/690234","volume":"11","author":"G Brunello","year":"2017","unstructured":"Brunello G, Rocco L (2017b) The labor market effects of academic and vocational education over the life cycle: evidence based on a British cohort. J Hum Capital 11(1):106\u2013166","journal-title":"J Hum Capital"},{"key":"846_CR9","unstructured":"Campos M M, Pereira M C (2009) Wages and incentives in the Portuguese public sector. Banco de Portugal Economic Bulletin, pp 57\u201377"},{"issue":"4","key":"846_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"875","DOI":"10.1086\/491608","volume":"23","author":"AR Cardoso","year":"2005","unstructured":"Cardoso A R, Portugal P (2005) Contractual wages and the wage cushion under different bargaining settings. J Labor Econ 23(4):875\u2013902","journal-title":"J Labor Econ"},{"key":"846_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Cardoso AR, Guimaraes P, Portugal P, Reis H (2018) The returns to schooling unveiled. IZA Discussion Paper 11419, IZA","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.3153383"},{"key":"846_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Carneiro P, Dearden L, Vignoles A (2010) The economics of vocational education and training. In: Peterson P, Baker E, McGaw B (eds) International encyclopedia of education, vol 8. Elsevier, Oxford, pp 255\u2013261","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-0-08-044894-7.01737-1"},{"key":"846_CR13","unstructured":"Dai L, Martins P (2020) Does vocational education pay off in China? Instrumental-variable quantile-regression evidence. GLO Discussion Paper series 495, Global Labor Organization"},{"key":"846_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"F95","DOI":"10.1111\/ecoj.12322","volume":"127","author":"T Dohmen","year":"2017","unstructured":"Dohmen T, Falk A, Golsteyn B, Huffman D, Sunde U (2017) Risk attitudes across the life course. Econ J 127:F95\u2013F116","journal-title":"Econ J"},{"key":"846_CR15","unstructured":"Duarte A (2014) Unifica\u00e7\u00e3o e diversifica\u00e7\u00e3o das vias de ensino. In: de Lurdes Rodrigues M (ed) 40 Anos de Pol\u00edticas de Educa\u00e7\u00e3o em Portugal\u2014Volume 1\u2014A Constru\u00e7\u00e3o do Sistema Democr\u00e1tico de Ensino, ALMEDINA"},{"issue":"2","key":"846_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"314","DOI":"10.1177\/0019793914564963","volume":"68","author":"W Eichhorst","year":"2015","unstructured":"Eichhorst W, Rodriiguez-Planas N, Schmidl R, Zimmermann K (2015) A road map to vocational education and training in industrialized countries. Ind Labor Relat Rev 68(2):314\u2013337","journal-title":"Ind Labor Relat Rev"},{"issue":"4","key":"846_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"733","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9442.2008.00559.x","volume":"110","author":"J Fersterer","year":"2008","unstructured":"Fersterer J, Pischke J, Winter-Ebmer R (2008) Returns to apprenticeship training in Austria: evidence from failed firms. Scand J Econ 110 (4):733\u2013753","journal-title":"Scand J Econ"},{"key":"846_CR18","unstructured":"Fouarge D, Smits W, de Vries J, de Vries R (2017) Ongelijkheid en veranderingen in de beroepenstructuur. In: Chkalova K, van Genabeek J, Sanders J, Smits W (eds) Dynamiek op de Nederlandse arbeidsmarkt\u2014Focus op ongelijkheid. Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek\/TNO, pp 46\u201367"},{"issue":"1","key":"846_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"509","DOI":"10.1086\/683668","volume":"34","author":"J Gelbach","year":"2016","unstructured":"Gelbach J (2016) When do covariates matter? And which ones, and how much? J Labor Econ 34(1):509\u2013543","journal-title":"J Labor Econ"},{"issue":"2","key":"846_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"167","DOI":"10.1086\/691798","volume":"11","author":"BHH Golsteyn","year":"2017","unstructured":"Golsteyn B H H, Stenberg A (2017) Earnings over the life course: general versus vocational education. J Hum Capital 11(2):167\u2013212","journal-title":"J Hum Capital"},{"key":"846_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"103","DOI":"10.1016\/j.euroecorev.2014.10.006","volume":"73","author":"EA Hanushek","year":"2015","unstructured":"Hanushek E A, Schwerdt G, Wiederhold S, Woessmann L (2015) Returns to skills around the world: evidence from PIAAC. Eur Econ Rev 73:103\u2013130","journal-title":"Eur Econ Rev"},{"issue":"1","key":"846_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"49","DOI":"10.3368\/jhr.52.1.0415-7074R","volume":"52","author":"EA Hanushek","year":"2017","unstructured":"Hanushek E A, Schwerdt G, Woessmann L, Zhang L (2017) General education, vocational education, and labor-market outcomes over the lifecycle. J Hum Resour 52(1):49\u201387","journal-title":"J Hum Resour"},{"issue":"2","key":"846_CR23","first-page":"2","volume":"48","author":"J Hartog","year":"2017","unstructured":"Hartog J, Raposo P (2017) Are starting wages reduced by an insurance premium for preventing wage decline? testing the prediction of Harris and Holmstrom (1982). Labour Econ 48(2):2\u20132","journal-title":"Labour Econ"},{"key":"846_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hartog J, Raposo P, Reis H (2021) Fluctuations in the wage gap between vocational and general secondary education: lessons from Portugal. GLO Discussion Paper series 769, Global Labor Organization","DOI":"10.1007\/s00148-021-00846-1"},{"issue":"1","key":"846_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1006\/reec.1999.0225","volume":"54","author":"JJ Heckman","year":"2000","unstructured":"Heckman J J (2000) Policies to foster human capital. Res Econ 54(1):3\u201356","journal-title":"Res Econ"},{"key":"846_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1515\/9780691188652","volume-title":"What\u2019s the good of education? The economics of education in the UK","author":"S Machin","year":"2005","unstructured":"Machin S, Vignoles A (2005) What\u2019s the good of education? The economics of education in the UK. Princeton University Press, Princeton and Oxford"},{"issue":"1","key":"846_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"43","DOI":"10.1162\/rest.2009.11339","volume":"92","author":"O Malamud","year":"2010","unstructured":"Malamud O, Pop-Eleches C (2010) General education versus vocational education: evidence from an economy in transition. Rev Econ Stat 92 (1):43\u201360","journal-title":"Rev Econ Stat"},{"issue":"2","key":"846_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"251","DOI":"10.2307\/2109863","volume":"77","author":"JWR Murnane","year":"1995","unstructured":"Murnane J W R, Levy F (1995) The growing importance of cognitive skills in wage determination. Rev Econ Stat 77(2):251\u2013266","journal-title":"Rev Econ Stat"},{"key":"846_CR29","unstructured":"Oliveira S (2015) Returns to vocational education in Portugal. Policy Paper 3, Institute of Public Policy Thomas Jefferson\u2014Correia da Serra"},{"issue":"1","key":"846_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"152","DOI":"10.1257\/000282806776157641","volume":"96","author":"P Oreopoulos","year":"2006","unstructured":"Oreopoulos P (2006) Estimating average and local average treatment effects of education when compulsory schooling laws really matter. Am Econ Rev 96(1):152\u2013175","journal-title":"Am Econ Rev"},{"key":"846_CR31","unstructured":"Pereira P, Martins P (2001) Portugal. In: Harmon C, Walker I, Westergaard N (eds) Education and earnings in Europe\u2014a cross country analysis of returns to education. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, pp 213\u2013233"},{"issue":"5","key":"846_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"988","DOI":"10.1162\/JEEA.2006.4.5.988","volume":"4","author":"P Portugal","year":"2006","unstructured":"Portugal P, Cardoso A R (2006) Disentangling the minimum wage puzzle: an analysis of worker accessions and separations. J Eur Econ Assoc 4 (5):988\u20131013","journal-title":"J Eur Econ Assoc"},{"issue":"8","key":"846_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1364","DOI":"10.1108\/IJM-11-2017-0314","volume":"40","author":"H Torun","year":"2019","unstructured":"Torun H, Tumen S (2019) Do vocational high school graduates have better employment outcomes than general high school graduates? Int J Manpower 40(8):1364\u20131388","journal-title":"Int J Manpower"},{"key":"846_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"199","DOI":"10.1007\/s10797-008-9064-1","volume":"1","author":"L Woessmann","year":"2008","unstructured":"Woessmann L (2008) Efficiency and equity in European education and training policies. Int Tax Public Finance 1:199\u2013230","journal-title":"Int Tax Public Finance"},{"issue":"1\u20132","key":"846_CR35","first-page":"1","volume":"9","author":"K Zimmermann","year":"2013","unstructured":"Zimmermann K, Biavaschi C, Eichhorst W, Giulietti C, Kendzia M J, Muravyev A, Pieters J, Rodriguez-Planas N, Schmidl R (2013) Youth unemployment and vocational training. Found Trends(R) Microecon 9 (1\u20132):1\u2013157","journal-title":"Found Trends(R) Microecon"}],"container-title":["Journal of Population Economics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s00148-021-00846-1.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s00148-021-00846-1\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s00148-021-00846-1.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,14]],"date-time":"2022-01-14T09:08:57Z","timestamp":1642151337000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s00148-021-00846-1"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,5]]},"references-count":35,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,4]]}},"alternative-id":["846"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00148-021-00846-1","relation":{},"ISSN":["0933-1433","1432-1475"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0933-1433","type":"print"},{"value":"1432-1475","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,5]]},"assertion":[{"value":"4 March 2020","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"23 March 2021","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"5 June 2021","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"<!--Emphasis Type='Bold' removed-->Conflict of interest"}}]}}