{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,19]],"date-time":"2026-03-19T03:10:14Z","timestamp":1773889814958,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,3]],"date-time":"2022-09-03T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1662163200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,3]],"date-time":"2022-09-03T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1662163200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Empir Econ"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>This paper analyses the factors that affect the duration of economic downturns using data for growth (acceleration) cycles for 13 industrialised countries over the period 1950\u20132018. Our findings show that downturn periods die of old age. We also find that when trading partners are in a downturn, the duration of a country\u2019s downturn is likely to be shorter, a likely outcome of common stabilisation mechanisms or terms of trade changes. Additionally, more open economies are found to experience shorter downturn periods and European Union countries show a higher level of synchronisation than the others. Lastly, trade linkages are found to intensify acceleration cycle synchronisation.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s00181-022-02299-1","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,3]],"date-time":"2022-09-03T04:02:45Z","timestamp":1662177765000},"page":"1667-1698","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["The duration of acceleration cycle downturns: duration dependence, international dynamics and synchronisation"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"64","author":[{"given":"George","family":"Koutsoumanis","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6426-6663","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"V\u00edtor","family":"Castro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,3]]},"reference":[{"issue":"3","key":"2299_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"343","DOI":"10.1016\/S1059-0560(99)80036-7","volume":"7","author":"A Abderrezak","year":"1998","unstructured":"Abderrezak A (1998) On the duration of growth cycles: an international study. Int Rev Econ Financ 7(3):343\u2013355","journal-title":"Int Rev Econ Financ"},{"key":"2299_CR2","volume-title":"Quantitative applications in the social sciences: event history and survival analysis","author":"P Allison","year":"2014","unstructured":"Allison P (2014) Quantitative applications in the social sciences: event history and survival analysis. SAGE Publications, Thousand Oaks, CA"},{"issue":"1","key":"2299_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"113","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2004.08.002","volume":"52","author":"M Baxter","year":"2005","unstructured":"Baxter M, Kouparitsas MA (2005) Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis. J Monet Econ 52(1):113\u2013157","journal-title":"J Monet Econ"},{"key":"2299_CR4","unstructured":"Berge TJ (2012) Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?. Econ Rev, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 97(Q III)"},{"key":"2299_CR5","unstructured":"Burns AF, Mitchell WC (1946) Measuring business cycles. NBER Studies on Business Cycles, No. 2. National Bureau of Economic Research, New York."},{"key":"2299_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"98","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jdeveco.2014.03.001","volume":"109","author":"C Calder\u00f3n","year":"2014","unstructured":"Calder\u00f3n C, Fuentes J (2014) Have business cycles changed over the last two decades? An empirical investigation. J Dev Econ 109:98\u2013123","journal-title":"J Dev Econ"},{"issue":"1","key":"2299_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"347","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmacro.2009.06.006","volume":"32","author":"V Castro","year":"2010","unstructured":"Castro V (2010) The duration of economic expansions and recessions: more than duration dependence. J Macroecon 32(1):347\u2013365","journal-title":"J Macroecon"},{"issue":"2","key":"2299_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"511","DOI":"10.1007\/s00181-011-0544-2","volume":"44","author":"V Castro","year":"2013","unstructured":"Castro V (2013) The duration of business cycle expansions and contractions: are there change-points in duration dependence? Empir Econ 44(2):511\u2013544","journal-title":"Empir Econ"},{"issue":"1","key":"2299_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"178","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jinteco.2011.11.008","volume":"87","author":"S Claessens","year":"2012","unstructured":"Claessens S, Kose AM, Terrones ME (2012) How do business and financial cycles interact? J Int Econ 87(1):178\u2013190","journal-title":"J Int Econ"},{"key":"2299_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"de Bondt G, Vermeulen P (2018) Business cycle duration dependence and foreign recessions. Working paper series 2205. European Central Bank.","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.3289562"},{"issue":"3","key":"2299_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"290","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-8454.2005.00266.x","volume":"44","author":"N Di Venuto","year":"2005","unstructured":"Di Venuto N, Layton A (2005) Do the phases of the business cycle die of old age? Aust Econ Pap 44(3):290\u2013305","journal-title":"Aust Econ Pap"},{"issue":"3","key":"2299_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"596","DOI":"10.1086\/261696","volume":"98","author":"FX Diebold","year":"1990","unstructured":"Diebold FX, Rudebusch GD (1990) A nonparametric investigation of duration dependence in the american business cycle. J Polit Econ 98(3):596\u2013616","journal-title":"J Polit Econ"},{"key":"2299_CR12","unstructured":"Diebold, F. X., Rudebusch, G. D. and Sichel, D. E. (1990) \u2018International evidence on business cycle duration dependence\u2019, Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Discussion (31)."},{"key":"2299_CR13","first-page":"255","volume-title":"Business cycles","author":"FX Diebold","year":"1993","unstructured":"Diebold FX, Rudebusch G, Sichel D (1993) Further evidence on business-cycle duration dependence. In: Stock JH, Watson MW (eds) Business cycles. University of Chicago Press, Indicators and Forecasting, pp 255\u2013284"},{"issue":"3","key":"2299_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"279","DOI":"10.1080\/07350015.1994.10524543","volume":"12","author":"JM Durland","year":"1994","unstructured":"Durland JM, McCurdy TH (1994) Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov Model of U.S. GNP growth. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 12(3):279\u2013288","journal-title":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics"},{"issue":"449","key":"2299_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1009","DOI":"10.1111\/1468-0297.00327","volume":"108","author":"JA Frankel","year":"1998","unstructured":"Frankel JA, Rose AK (1998) The endogeneity of the optimum currency area criteria author. Econ J 108(449):1009\u20131025","journal-title":"Econ J"},{"issue":"3","key":"2299_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"515","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/81.3.515","volume":"81","author":"PM Grambsch","year":"1994","unstructured":"Grambsch PM, Therneau TM (1994) Proportional hazards tests and diagnostics based on weighted residuals. Biometrika 81(3):515\u2013526","journal-title":"Biometrika"},{"key":"2299_CR17","unstructured":"Harding D (2004), Non-parametric turning point detection, dating rules and the construction of the euro-zone chronology. In Mazzi G.L. et Savio G. (eds.), Monographs of official statistics: statistical methods and business cycle analysis of the Euro-zone, Eurostat, p. 122\u2013146."},{"issue":"1","key":"2299_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"86","DOI":"10.1016\/j.japwor.2005.05.004","volume":"19","author":"H Iiboshi","year":"2007","unstructured":"Iiboshi H (2007) Duration dependence of the business cycle in Japan: a Bayesian analysis of extended Markov switching model. Jpn World Econ 19(1):86\u2013111","journal-title":"Jpn World Econ"},{"issue":"2","key":"2299_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"188","DOI":"10.1162\/003465398557447","volume":"80","author":"C-J Kim","year":"1998","unstructured":"Kim C-J, Nelson CR (1998) Business cycle turning points, a new coincident index, and tests of duration dependence based on a dynamic factor model with regime switching. Rev Econ Stat 80(2):188\u2013201","journal-title":"Rev Econ Stat"},{"issue":"2","key":"2299_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"389","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jpolmod.2014.01.006","volume":"36","author":"I Konstantakopoulou","year":"2014","unstructured":"Konstantakopoulou I, Tsionas E (2014) Half a century of empirical evidence of business cycles in OECD countries. J Policy Model 36(2):389\u2013409","journal-title":"J Policy Model"},{"issue":"1","key":"2299_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"175","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1468-2354.2004.00121.x","volume":"45","author":"P Lam","year":"2004","unstructured":"Lam P (2004) A Markov-switching model of GNP growth with duration dependence. Int Econ Rev 45(1):175\u2013204","journal-title":"Int Econ Rev"},{"issue":"4","key":"2299_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"939","DOI":"10.2307\/1914140","volume":"47","author":"T Lancaster","year":"1979","unstructured":"Lancaster T (1979) Econometric methods for the duration of unemployment. Econometrica 47(4):939\u2013956","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"issue":"4","key":"2299_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"855","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmacro.2006.02.003","volume":"29","author":"AP Layton","year":"2007","unstructured":"Layton AP, Smith DR (2007) Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators. J Macroecon 29(4):855\u2013875","journal-title":"J Macroecon"},{"issue":"3","key":"2299_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"365","DOI":"10.3917\/redp.223.0365","volume":"122","author":"R Majetti","year":"2012","unstructured":"Majetti R (2012) Caract\u00e9risation et datation des cycles \u00e9conomiques: le cas fran\u00e7ais. Revue D\u2019\u00e9conomie Politique 122(3):365","journal-title":"Revue D\u2019\u00e9conomie Politique"},{"key":"2299_CR25","unstructured":"Mintz, I. (1969) Dating postwar business cycles: methods and their application to Western Germany (1950\u201367). NBER Occasional Paper, n\u00b0 107. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research."},{"issue":"5","key":"2299_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"419","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconbus.2010.05.004","volume":"62","author":"T Papageorgiou","year":"2010","unstructured":"Papageorgiou T, Michaelides PG, Milios JG (2010) Business cycles synchronisation and clustering in Europe (1960\u20132009). J Econ Bus 62(5):419\u2013470","journal-title":"J Econ Bus"},{"issue":"2","key":"2299_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"254","DOI":"10.2307\/2109515","volume":"73","author":"ED Sichel","year":"1991","unstructured":"Sichel ED (1991) Business cycle duration dependence: a parametric approach. Rev Econ Stat 73(2):254\u2013260","journal-title":"Rev Econ Stat"},{"issue":"1","key":"2299_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"179","DOI":"10.1016\/S1514-0326(14)60008-8","volume":"17","author":"BKO Ta\u015f","year":"2014","unstructured":"Ta\u015f BKO, Cunedio\u01e7lu HE (2014) How can recessions be brought to an end? Effects of macroeconomic policy actions on durations of recessions. J Appl Econ 17(1):179\u2013198","journal-title":"J Appl Econ"},{"issue":"5","key":"2299_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"557","DOI":"10.2298\/PAN1505557Y","volume":"62","author":"N Yildirim","year":"2015","unstructured":"Yildirim N (2015) A survival analysis of the contraction phases of business cycles in industrial countries. Panoeconomicus 62(5):557\u2013579","journal-title":"Panoeconomicus"},{"issue":"2","key":"2299_CR31","first-page":"20","volume":"34","author":"A Zellner","year":"1990","unstructured":"Zellner A (1990) Some properties of the durations of economic expansions and contractions. Am Econ 34(2):20\u201327","journal-title":"Am Econ"},{"issue":"4","key":"2299_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"564","DOI":"10.1198\/073500103288619241","volume":"21","author":"TW Zuehlke","year":"2003","unstructured":"Zuehlke TW (2003) Business cycle duration dependence reconsidered. J Bus Econ Stat 21(4):564\u2013569","journal-title":"J Bus Econ Stat"}],"container-title":["Empirical Economics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s00181-022-02299-1.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s00181-022-02299-1\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s00181-022-02299-1.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,10,3]],"date-time":"2024-10-03T04:59:52Z","timestamp":1727931592000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s00181-022-02299-1"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,3]]},"references-count":32,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,4]]}},"alternative-id":["2299"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00181-022-02299-1","relation":{},"ISSN":["0377-7332","1435-8921"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0377-7332","type":"print"},{"value":"1435-8921","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,3]]},"assertion":[{"value":"28 July 2021","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"17 August 2022","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"3 September 2022","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Conflict of interest"}}]}}