{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,1]],"date-time":"2026-05-01T05:22:31Z","timestamp":1777612951605,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":55,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2017,5,9]],"date-time":"2017-05-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1494288000000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/www.springer.com\/tdm"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Water Resour Manage"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017,9]]},"DOI":"10.1007\/s11269-017-1672-z","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,5,8]],"date-time":"2017-05-08T19:43:35Z","timestamp":1494272615000},"page":"3355-3370","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":57,"title":["Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Reservoir Management: Uncertainty and Adaptation for a Mountain Catchment in Northeast Portugal"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"31","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1841-209X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Claudia","family":"Carvalho-Santos","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Ant\u00f3nio T.","family":"Monteiro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Jo\u00e3o C.","family":"Azevedo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Jo\u00e3o Pradinho","family":"Honrado","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Jo\u00e3o Pedro","family":"Nunes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,5,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"1672_CR1","unstructured":"Agroconsultores-COBA (1991) Carta de Solos da Regi\u00e3o de Tr\u00e1s-os-Montes e Alto Douro (1:100 000). (Soil map from the region Tr\u00e1s-os-Montes e Alto Douro), Universidade de Tr\u00e1s-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Bragan\u00e7a [in Portuguese]"},{"key":"1672_CR2","unstructured":"APA (2012) Refor\u00e7o de Abastecimento de \u00c1gua a Bragan\u00e7a (water supply strengthening plan for Bragan\u00e7a). APA - Agencia Portuguesa do Ambiente (Portuguese Environmental Agency)"},{"key":"1672_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"73","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1752-1688.1998.tb05961.x","volume":"34","author":"JG Arnold","year":"1998","unstructured":"Arnold JG, Srinivasan R, Muttiah RS, Williams JR (1998) Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment part I: model development. J Am Water Resour Assoc 34:73\u201389","journal-title":"J Am Water Resour Assoc"},{"key":"1672_CR4","first-page":"65","volume":"2","author":"V \u00c1lvarez","year":"2011","unstructured":"\u00c1lvarez V, Taboada JJ, Lorenzo MN (2011) Cambio clim\u00e1tico en Galicia en el siglo XXI: Tendencias y variabilidad en temperaturas y precipitaciones (Climate Change in Galicia by the XXI century: tendencies and variability in temperatures and precipitation). Revista Avances en Ciencias de la Terra (ACT) 2:65\u201385","journal-title":"Revista Avances en Ciencias de la Terra (ACT)"},{"key":"1672_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"246","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2013.04.025","volume":"458-460","author":"RF Bangash","year":"2013","unstructured":"Bangash RF, Passuello A, Sanchez-Canales M et al (2013) Ecosystem services in Mediterranean river basin: climate change impact on water provisioning and erosion control. Sci Total Environ 458-460:246\u2013255","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ"},{"key":"1672_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"720","DOI":"10.1002\/hyp.10621","volume":"30","author":"C Carvalho-Santos","year":"2016","unstructured":"Carvalho-Santos C, Nunes JP, Monteiro AT et al (2016) Assessing the effects of land cover and future climate conditions on the provision of hydrological services in a medium-sized watershed of Portugal. Hydrol Process 30:720\u2013738","journal-title":"Hydrol Process"},{"key":"1672_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"119","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-642-01577-9_15","volume-title":"Natural heritage from east to west","author":"J Castro","year":"2010","unstructured":"Castro J, de Figueiredo T, Fonseca F et al (2010) Montesinho Natural Park: general description and natural values. In: Evelpidou N, de Figueiredo T, Mauro F, Tecim V (eds) Natural heritage from east to west. Springer - Verlag, Heidelberg, pp 119\u2013132"},{"key":"1672_CR8","first-page":"1","volume-title":"Climate change in Portugal scenarios, impacts and adaptation measures\u2014SIAM project","author":"LV Cunha","year":"2002","unstructured":"Cunha LV, Oliveira R, Nunes V (2002) WaterResources. In: Santos FD, Forbes K, Moita R (eds) Climate change in Portugal scenarios, impacts and adaptation measures\u2014SIAM project. Gradiva Publishers, Lisbon, pp 1\u201338"},{"key":"1672_CR9","unstructured":"Cunha LV, Oliveira RP, Nascimento J, Ribeiro L (2005) Impacts of climate change on water resources: a case-study for Portugal. The Fourth Inter-Celtic Colloquim on Hydrology and Management of Water Resources - International Association of Hydrological Sciences, July 11\u201314, Guimar\u00e3es, Portugal"},{"key":"1672_CR10","unstructured":"ECAD (2015) European climate assessment & dataset. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). Available online at \nhttp:\/\/eca.knmi.nl\n\n\/. Accessed Jan 2015"},{"key":"1672_CR11","unstructured":"EEA (2003) Water exploitation index. European Environment Agency"},{"key":"1672_CR12","volume-title":"Balancing water for humans and nature","author":"M Falkenmark","year":"2004","unstructured":"Falkenmark M, Rockstrom J (2004) Balancing water for humans and nature. Earthscan, London"},{"key":"1672_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"41","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloplacha.2013.11.002","volume":"112","author":"S Feng","year":"2014","unstructured":"Feng S, Hu Q, Huang W et al (2014) Projected climate regime shift under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario CMIP5 simulations. Glob Planet Chang 112:41\u201352","journal-title":"Glob Planet Chang"},{"key":"1672_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"257","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2013.11.044","volume":"509","author":"L Galv\u00e1n","year":"2014","unstructured":"Galv\u00e1n L, Ol\u00edas M, Izquierdo T, Cer\u00f3n JC (2014) Rainfall estimation in SWAT: an alternative method to simulate orographic precipitation. J Hydrol 509:257\u2013265","journal-title":"J Hydrol"},{"key":"1672_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1211","DOI":"10.13031\/2013.23637","volume":"50","author":"PW Gassman","year":"2007","unstructured":"Gassman PW, Reyes MR, Green CH, Arnold JG (2007) The soil and water assessment tool: historical development, applications, and future research directions. Trans ASABE 50:1211\u20131250","journal-title":"Trans ASABE"},{"key":"1672_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"90","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloplacha.2007.09.005","volume":"63","author":"F Giorgi","year":"2008","unstructured":"Giorgi F, Lionello P (2008) Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region. Glob Planet Chang 63:90\u2013104","journal-title":"Glob Planet Chang"},{"key":"1672_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hurkmans R, Terink W, Uijlenhoet R et al (2010) Changes in streamflow dynamics in the rhine basin under three high-resolution regional climate scenarios. J Climate 23:679\u2013699","DOI":"10.1175\/2009JCLI3066.1"},{"key":"1672_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"432","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1475-4762.2012.01114.x","volume":"44","author":"SJ Hughes","year":"2012","unstructured":"Hughes SJ, Cabecinha E, Andrade dos Santos JC et al (2012) A predictive modelling tool for assessing climate, land use and hydrological change on reservoir physicochemical and biological properties. Area 44:432\u2013442","journal-title":"Area"},{"key":"1672_CR19","unstructured":"INE (2016) Instituto Nacional de Estat\u00edstica (Portuguese National Statistics). Retrieved from: \nwww.ine.pt\n\n. Accessed Dec 2016"},{"key":"1672_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"744","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsci.2011.02.007","volume":"14","author":"A Iglesias","year":"2011","unstructured":"Iglesias A, Garrote L, Diz A et al (2011) Re-thinking water policy priorities in the Mediterranean region in view of climate change. Environ Sci Pol 14:744\u2013757","journal-title":"Environ Sci Pol"},{"key":"1672_CR21","unstructured":"IGN, Instituto Geogr\u00e1fico Nacional de Espa\u00f1a (Spanish Geographic Institute) (2006) Retrieved from: \nwww.ign.es\n\n. Accessed Jan 2015"},{"key":"1672_CR22","unstructured":"IGP (2007) Carta de Ocupa\u00e7\u00e3o e Uso do Solo 1990 e 2007 (Land Cover and Use map 1990 and 2007). IGP - Instituto Geogr\u00e1fico Portugu\u00eas (Portuguese Geographical Institute). Accessed Jan 2015. [in Portuguese]"},{"key":"1672_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"61","DOI":"10.5194\/dwes-6-61-2013","volume":"6","author":"R Jacinto","year":"2013","unstructured":"Jacinto R, Cruz MJ, Santos FD (2013) Development of water use scenarios as a tool for adaptation to climate change. Drink Water Eng Sci 6:61\u201368","journal-title":"Drink Water Eng Sci"},{"key":"1672_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"563","DOI":"10.1007\/s10113-013-0499-2","volume":"14","author":"D Jacob","year":"2013","unstructured":"Jacob D, Petersen J, Eggert B et al (2013) EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Reg Environ Chang 14:563\u2013578","journal-title":"Reg Environ Chang"},{"key":"1672_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kundzewicz ZW, Mata LJ, Arnell NW et al (2008) The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management. Hydrol Sci J 53:3\u201310","DOI":"10.1623\/hysj.53.1.3"},{"key":"1672_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lenderink G, Buishand A, van Deursen W (2007) Estimates of future discharges of the river rhine using two scenario methodologies: direct versus delta approach. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 11:1143\u20131159","DOI":"10.5194\/hess-11-1145-2007"},{"key":"1672_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1117","DOI":"10.1007\/s11269-014-0864-z","volume":"29","author":"L Liuzzo","year":"2014","unstructured":"Liuzzo L, Noto LV, Arnone E et al (2014) Modifications in water resources availability under climate changes: a case study in a Sicilian Basin. Water Resour Manag 29:1117\u20131135","journal-title":"Water Resour Manag"},{"key":"1672_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"117","DOI":"10.3354\/cr01177","volume":"58","author":"J Lorenzo-Lacruz","year":"2013","unstructured":"Lorenzo-Lacruz J, Vicente-Serrano SM, Gonz\u00e1lez-Hidalgo JC et al (2013) Hydrological drought response to meteorological drought in the Iberian Peninsula. Clim Res 58:117\u2013131","journal-title":"Clim Res"},{"key":"1672_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1222","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2013.09.031","volume":"493","author":"JI L\u00f3pez-Moreno","year":"2014","unstructured":"L\u00f3pez-Moreno JI, Zabalza J, Vicente-Serrano SM et al (2014) Impact of climate and land use change on water availability and reservoir management: scenarios in the upper Arag\u00f3n River, Spanish Pyrenees. Sci Total Environ 493:1222\u20131231","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ"},{"key":"1672_CR30","unstructured":"Lucas MJ (2011) Recenseamento Agr\u00edcola 2009 - Pr\u00e1ticas agr\u00edcolas (Agricultural Inventory 2009 - Management in Agriculture. INE - Instituto Nacional de Estatistica (Statistical National Institute)"},{"key":"1672_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Martin-Carrasco F, Garrote L (2007) Drought-induced water scarcity in water resources systems. In: Vasiliev OF, van Gelder PHAJM, Plate EJ, Bolgov MV (eds) Extreme hydrological events: new concepts for security. NATO Science Series, pp 301\u2013311","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4020-5741-0_20"},{"key":"1672_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"213","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-011-0156-z","volume":"109","author":"M Meinshausen","year":"2011","unstructured":"Meinshausen M, Smith SJ, Calvin K et al (2011) The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Clim Chang 109:213\u2013241","journal-title":"Clim Chang"},{"key":"1672_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1028","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2015.04.066","volume":"543","author":"S Mereu","year":"2016","unstructured":"Mereu S, Su\u0161nik J, Trabucco A et al (2016) Operational resilience of reservoirs to climate change, agricultural demand, and tourism: a case study from Sardinia. Sci Total Environ 543:1028\u20131038","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ"},{"key":"1672_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2156","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.1837","volume":"29","author":"S Mesquita","year":"2009","unstructured":"Mesquita S, Sousa AJ (2009) Bioclimatic mapping using geostatistical approaches: application to mainland Portugal. Int J Climatol 29:2156\u20132170","journal-title":"Int J Climatol"},{"key":"1672_CR35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"549","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1466-822X.2005.00190.x","volume":"14","author":"MJ Metzger","year":"2005","unstructured":"Metzger MJ, Bunce RGH, Jongman RHG et al (2005) A climatic stratification of the environment of Europe. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 14:549\u2013563","journal-title":"Glob Ecol Biogeogr"},{"key":"1672_CR36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"354","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2013.11.053","volume":"509","author":"E Molina-Navarro","year":"2014","unstructured":"Molina-Navarro E, Trolle D, Mart\u00ednez-P\u00e9rez S et al (2014) Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios. J Hydrol 509:354\u2013366","journal-title":"J Hydrol"},{"key":"1672_CR37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"885","DOI":"10.13031\/2013.23153","volume":"50","author":"DN Moriasi","year":"2007","unstructured":"Moriasi DN, Arnold JG, Van Liew MW et al (2007) Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Trans ASABE 50:885\u2013900","journal-title":"Trans ASABE"},{"key":"1672_CR38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2377","DOI":"10.1007\/s11269-015-0947-5","volume":"29","author":"S Mourato","year":"2015","unstructured":"Mourato S, Moreira M, Corte-Real J (2015) Water resources impact assessment under climate change scenarios in Mediterranean watersheds. Water Resour Manag 29:2377\u20132391","journal-title":"Water Resour Manag"},{"key":"1672_CR39","unstructured":"NCDC (2015) National climatic data center. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. U. S. Department of Commerce. Available online at \nhttp:\/\/www.ncdc.noaa.gov\/\n\n. Accessed Jan 2015"},{"key":"1672_CR40","volume-title":"Soil & water assessment tool. Theoretical Documentation. Version 2009","author":"SL Neitsch","year":"2011","unstructured":"Neitsch SL, Arnold JG, Kiriny JR, Williams JR (2011) Soil & water assessment tool. Theoretical Documentation. Version 2009. Texas A&M University System, College Station"},{"key":"1672_CR41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"8793","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-14-00265.1","volume":"27","author":"PJ Northrop","year":"2014","unstructured":"Northrop PJ, Chandler RE (2014) Quantifying sources of uncertainty in projections of future climate. J Clim 27:8793\u20138808","journal-title":"J Clim"},{"key":"1672_CR42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3115","DOI":"10.1002\/hyp.6897","volume":"22","author":"JP Nunes","year":"2008","unstructured":"Nunes JP, Seixas J, Pacheco NR (2008) Vulnerability of water resources, vegetation productivity and soil erosion to climate change in Mediterranean watersheds. Hydrol Process 22:3115\u20133134","journal-title":"Hydrol Process"},{"key":"1672_CR43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"189","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2014.02.010","volume":"479-480","author":"P Panagos","year":"2014","unstructured":"Panagos P, Meusburger K, Ballabio C et al (2014) Soil erodibility in Europe: a high-resolution dataset based on LUCAS. Sci Total Environ 479-480:189\u2013200","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ"},{"issue":"4","key":"1672_CR44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"981","DOI":"10.1007\/s11269-011-9842-x","volume":"26","author":"G Rossi","year":"2012","unstructured":"Rossi G, Caporali E, Garrote L (2012) Definition of risk indicators for reservoirs management optimization. Water Resour Manag 26(4):981\u2013996","journal-title":"Water Resour Manag"},{"issue":"4","key":"1672_CR45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"265","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)0733-9437(2000)126:4(265)","volume":"126","author":"Z Samani","year":"2000","unstructured":"Samani Z (2000) Estimating solar radiation and evapotranspiration using minimum climatological data (Hargreaves-Samani equation). J Irrig Drain Eng 126(4):265\u2013277","journal-title":"J Irrig Drain Eng"},{"key":"1672_CR46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"477","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2014.12.090","volume":"511","author":"RMB Santos","year":"2015","unstructured":"Santos RMB, Sanches Fernandes LF, Varandas SGP et al (2015) Impacts of climate change and land-use scenarios on Margaritifera margaritifera, an environmental indicator and endangered species. Sci Total Environ 511:477\u2013488","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ"},{"key":"1672_CR47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1623\/hysj.53.1.11","volume":"53","author":"Y Shen","year":"2010","unstructured":"Shen Y, Oki T, Utsumi N et al (2010) Projection of future world water resources under SRES scenarios: water withdrawal. Hydrol Sci J 53:11\u201333","journal-title":"Hydrol Sci J"},{"key":"1672_CR48","unstructured":"SNIRH (2015) Sistema Nacional de Informa\u00e7\u00e3o de Recursos H\u00eddricos (National Hydrological Resources Information System). Portuguese Water Institute (INAG), Lisboa. Retrieved from: snirh.pt. Accessed Jan 2015. [in Portuguese]"},{"key":"1672_CR49","unstructured":"SRTM (2007) Digital elevation database 90m, v4-1, CGIARCSI \u2013 consortium for spatial information available online at \nhttp:\/\/www.cgiar-csi.org\/data\/srtm-90m-digital-elevation-database-v4-1\n\n. Accessed Jan 2015"},{"key":"1672_CR50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"77","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-011-0151-4","volume":"109","author":"AM Thomson","year":"2011","unstructured":"Thomson AM, Calvin KV, Smith SJ et al (2011) RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100. Clim Chang 109:77\u201394","journal-title":"Clim Chang"},{"key":"1672_CR51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"543","DOI":"10.1007\/s40710-015-0079-1","volume":"2","author":"G Tsakiris","year":"2015","unstructured":"Tsakiris G (2015) The status of the European waters in 2015: a review. Environ Process 2:543\u2013557","journal-title":"Environ Process"},{"key":"1672_CR52","unstructured":"USDA (1986) Urban hydrology for small watersheds. Natural Resources Conservation Service, Conservation Engineering Division, United States Department of Agriculture. Technical release 55"},{"key":"1672_CR53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-011-0148-z","volume":"109","author":"DP Vuuren","year":"2011","unstructured":"Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M et al (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Chang 109:5\u201331","journal-title":"Clim Chang"},{"key":"1672_CR54","unstructured":"Winchell M, Srinivasan R, Di Luzio M, Arnold JG (2010) ArcSWAT Interface for SWAT2009"},{"key":"1672_CR55","unstructured":"WRDC (2015) World radiation data center. Available online at \nhttp:\/\/wrdc-mgo.nrel.gov\n\n\/. Accessed Jan 2015"}],"container-title":["Water Resources Management"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s11269-017-1672-z\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s11269-017-1672-z.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s11269-017-1672-z.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2017,7,27]],"date-time":"2017-07-27T07:06:28Z","timestamp":1501139188000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s11269-017-1672-z"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2017,5,9]]},"references-count":55,"journal-issue":{"issue":"11","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017,9]]}},"alternative-id":["1672"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s11269-017-1672-z","relation":{},"ISSN":["0920-4741","1573-1650"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0920-4741","type":"print"},{"value":"1573-1650","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2017,5,9]]}}}