{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,23]],"date-time":"2026-03-23T10:52:01Z","timestamp":1774263121814,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":59,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,1]],"date-time":"2024-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1704067200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,3]],"date-time":"2024-01-03T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1704240000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":2,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003549","name":"Hungarian Scientific Research Fund","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["RRF 2.3.1 21 2022 00008"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["RRF 2.3.1 21 2022 00008"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003549","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003549","name":"Hungarian Scientific Research Fund","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NKFI K138079"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NKFI K138079"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003549","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003549","name":"Hungarian Scientific Research Fund","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["RRF 2.3.1 21 2022 00008"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["RRF 2.3.1 21 2022 00008"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003549","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100009232","name":"University of Debrecen","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100009232","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Earth Syst Environ"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Several studies investigated the occurrence of fires in Africa with numerical modeling or applied statistics; however, only a few studies focused on the influence of El Ni\u00f1o on the fire risk using a coupled model. The study aimed to assess the influence of El Ni\u00f1o on wildfire dynamics in Africa using the SPEEDY-HYCOM model. El Ni\u00f1o events in the Eastern Tropical Pacific were classified via sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly based on a predefined climatology between 1961 and 2020 for the entire time series of SST, obtaining linear anomalies. The time series of the SST anomalies was created for the region between 5\u00b0 N and 5\u00b0 S and 110\u00b0 W and 170\u00b0 W. The events were defined in three consecutive 3-month periods as weak, moderate, and strong El Ni\u00f1o conditions. The Meteorological Fire Danger Index (MFDI) was applied to detect fire hazards. The MFDI simulated by the SPEEDY-HYCOM model for three El Ni\u00f1o categories across different lagged months revealed relevant distinctions among the categories. In the case of \u2018Weak\u2019, the maximum variability of fire risk observed at time lags (0, -3, -6, and -9\u00a0months) was primarily in Congo, Gabon, and Madagascar. The \u2018Moderate\u2019 pattern had similar characteristics to \u2018Weak\u2019 except for the lag-6\u00a0months and its occurrence in the equatorial zone of Africa. \u2018Strong\u2019 showed a remarkable impact in East Africa, resulting in high fire risk, regardless of time lags. Precipitation and evaporation simulations (SPEEDY-HYCOM) indicated that El Ni\u00f1o categories in Africa need particular attention in the central, southern, and southeastern regions emphasizing the significance of lag-0 and lag-6 (evaporation) as well as lag-0, lag-6, and lag-9 (precipitation). The SPEEDY-HYCOM coupled model in conjunction with the MFDI was efficient in assessing climate variabilities in Africa during El Ni\u00f1o events. This model allows the analysis and prediction of wildfire risks based on El Ni\u00f1o events, providing crucial information for wildfire management and prevention. Its simulations uncover significant variations in risks among different El Ni\u00f1o categories and lagged months, contributing to the understanding and mitigation of this environmental challenge.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s41748-023-00363-z","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,3]],"date-time":"2024-01-03T11:02:13Z","timestamp":1704279733000},"page":"45-61","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":13,"title":["Impact of the El Ni\u00f1o on Fire Dynamics on the African Continent"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"8","author":[{"given":"Jos\u00e9 Francisco","family":"de Oliveira-J\u00fanior","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"David","family":"Mendes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2670-7384","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Szilard","family":"Szabo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Sudhir Kumar","family":"Singh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Punyawi","family":"Jamjareegulgarn","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Kelvy Rosalvo Alencar","family":"Cardoso","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Laszlo","family":"Bertalan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Marcos Vinicius","family":"da Silva","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Alexandre Mani\u00e7oba","family":"da Rosa Ferraz Jardim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Jhon Lennon Bezerra","family":"da Silva","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Gustavo Bastos","family":"Lyra","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Marcel Carvalho","family":"Abreu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Washington Luiz F\u00e9lix Correia","family":"Filho","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Amaury","family":"de Sousa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Dimas","family":"de Barros Santiago","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Iwldson Guilherme","family":"da Silva Santos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Vafaeva Khristina","family":"Maksudovna","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,3]]},"reference":[{"key":"363_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.8274","author":"MC Abreu","year":"2023","unstructured":"Abreu MC, Souza Fraga M, Lyra GB, Oliveira J\u00fanior JF, Jes\u00fas Villar-Hern\u00e1ndez B, Souza A, Zeri M (2023) Long-term trend analysis in annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall in East Northeast of Brazil and the influence of modes of climate variability. Int J Climatol. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/joc.8274","journal-title":"Int J Climatol"},{"key":"363_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/25148486221120546","author":"G Adamson","year":"2022","unstructured":"Adamson G (2022) El Ni\u00f1o without \u2018El Ni\u00f1o\u2019? Path dependency and the definition problem in El Ni\u00f1o southern oscillation research. Environ Plan E Nat Space. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/25148486221120546","journal-title":"Environ Plan E Nat Space"},{"key":"363_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"791","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate2313","volume":"4","author":"N Andela","year":"2014","unstructured":"Andela N, van der Werf GR (2014) Recent trends in African fires driven by cropland expansion and El Ni\u00f1o to La Ni\u00f1a transition. Nat Clim Change 4:791\u2013795. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/nclimate2313","journal-title":"Nat Clim Change"},{"key":"363_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1007\/s40515-023-00317-y","volume":"10","author":"A Ansari","year":"2023","unstructured":"Ansari A, Rao KS, Jain AK (2023a) Application of MICROZONATION TOWARDS SYSTEM-WIDE SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF RAILWAY NEtwork. Transp Infrast Geotech 10:1\u201324. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s40515-023-00317-y","journal-title":"Transp Infrast Geotech"},{"key":"363_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tust.2023.105118","volume":"137","author":"A Ansari","year":"2023","unstructured":"Ansari A, Rao KS, Jain AK (2023b) Seismic response and fragility evaluation of circular tunnels in the Himalayan region: Implications for post-seismic performance of transportation infrastructure projects in Jammu and Kashmir. Tunnel. Undergr Sp Technol 137:1\u201313. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.tust.2023.105118","journal-title":"Undergr Sp Technol"},{"key":"363_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"613","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2486.2008.01754.x","volume":"15","author":"S Archibald","year":"2009","unstructured":"Archibald S, Roy DP, Van Wilgen BW, Scholes RJ (2009) What limits fire? An examination of drivers of burnt area in Southern Africa. Glob Change Biol 15:613\u2013630. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/j.1365-2486.2008.01754.x","journal-title":"Glob Change Biol"},{"key":"363_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"794","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1466-8238.2010.00568.x","volume":"19","author":"S Archibald","year":"2010","unstructured":"Archibald S, Nickless A, Govender N, Scholes RJ, Lehsten V (2010) Climate and the inter-annual variability of fire in southern Africa: a meta-analysis using long-term field data and satellite-derived burnt area data. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 19:794\u2013809. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/j.1466-8238.2010.00568.x","journal-title":"Glob Ecol Biogeogr"},{"issue":"3","key":"363_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"847","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1118648109","volume":"109","author":"S Archibald","year":"2011","unstructured":"Archibald S, Staver CA, Levin SA (2011) Evolution of human-driven fire regimes in Africa. PNAS 109(3):847\u2013852. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.1118648109","journal-title":"PNAS"},{"key":"363_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"728","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2018.02.196","volume":"630","author":"A Ayanlade","year":"2018","unstructured":"Ayanlade A, Radeny M, Morton JF, Muchaba T (2018) Rainfall variability and drought characteristics in two agro-climatic zones: an assessment of climate change challenges in Africa. Sci Total Environ 630:728\u2013737. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2018.02.196","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ"},{"key":"363_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1038\/sdata.2018.214","volume":"5","author":"HE Beck","year":"2018","unstructured":"Beck HE, Zimmermann NE, McVicar TR, Vergopolan N, Berg A, Wood EF (2018) Present and future K\u00f6ppen-Geiger climate classification maps at 1-km resolution. Sci Data 5:1\u201312. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/sdata.2018.214","journal-title":"Sci Data"},{"key":"363_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"423","DOI":"10.1590\/S0100-204X2005000500001","volume":"40","author":"MA Berlato","year":"2005","unstructured":"Berlato MA, Farenzena H, Fontana DC (2005) Associa\u00e7\u00e3o entre El Ni\u00f1o Oscila\u00e7\u00e3o Sul e a produtividade do milho no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Pesqui Agropecu Bras 40:423\u2013432. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1590\/S0100-204X2005000500001","journal-title":"Pesqui Agropecu Bras"},{"key":"363_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"55","DOI":"10.1016\/S1463-5003(01)00012-9","volume":"4","author":"R Bleck","year":"2002","unstructured":"Bleck R (2002) An oceanic general circulation model framed in hybrid isopycnic - Cartesian coordinates. Ocean Model 4:55\u201388. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/S1463-5003(01)00012-9","journal-title":"Ocean Model"},{"key":"363_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"481","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1163886","volume":"324","author":"DM Bowman","year":"2009","unstructured":"Bowman DM, Balch JK, Artaxo P, Bond WJ, Carlson JM, Cochrane MA, Pyne SJ (2009) Fire in the earth system. Science 324:481\u2013484. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/science.1163886","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"363_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"199","DOI":"10.3389\/feart.2020.00199","volume":"8","author":"C Burton","year":"2020","unstructured":"Burton C, Betts RA, Jones CD, Feldpausch TR, Cardoso M, Anderson LO (2020) El Ni\u00f1o driven changes in global fire 2015\/16. Front Earth Sci 8:199. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/feart.2020.00199","journal-title":"Front Earth Sci"},{"key":"363_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Camia A, Bovio G, Aguado I, Stach N (1999) Meteorological fire danger indices and remote sensing. In: Remote Sensing of Large Wildfires: in the European Mediterranean Basin, 39\u201359. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/978-3-642-60164-4_4","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-642-60164-4_4"},{"key":"363_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Cao X, Meng Y, Chen J (2015) Mapping grassland wildfire risk of the world. World atlas of natural disaster risk, 277\u2013283. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/978-3-662-45430-5_15","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-662-45430-5_15"},{"key":"363_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2021JD034984","volume":"126","author":"TS Carter","year":"2021","unstructured":"Carter TS, Heald CL, Cappa CD, Kroll JH, Campos TL, Coe H, Wu H (2021) Investigating carbonaceous aerosol and its absorption properties from fires in the Western United States (WE-CAN) and Southern Africa (ORACLES and CLARIFY). J Geophys Res Atmos 126:e2021JD034984. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2021JD034984","journal-title":"J Geophys Res Atmos"},{"key":"363_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"906","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-017-0014-8","volume":"7","author":"Y Chen","year":"2017","unstructured":"Chen Y, Morton DC, Andela N, Van Der Werf GR, Giglio L, Randerson JT (2017) A pan-tropical cascade of fire driven by El Ni\u00f1o\/Southern Oscillation. Nat Clim Change 7:906\u2013911. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41558-017-0014-8","journal-title":"Nat Clim Change"},{"key":"363_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"951","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-018-4174-7","volume":"52","author":"F De Sales","year":"2019","unstructured":"De Sales F, Okin GS, Xue Y, Dintwe K (2019) On the effects of wildfires on precipitation in Southern Africa. Clim Dyn 52:951\u2013967. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00382-018-4174-7","journal-title":"Clim Dyn"},{"key":"363_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"6636","DOI":"10.1080\/01431161.2013.804224","volume":"34","author":"K Dong-Yun","year":"2013","unstructured":"Dong-Yun K, Valerie T, Jenny O, Matthew W, Nicolle C (2013) Statistical trend and change-point analysis of land-cover-change patterns in East Africa. Int J Remote Sens 34:6636\u20136650. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/01431161.2013.804224","journal-title":"Int J Remote Sens"},{"key":"363_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"317","DOI":"10.1002\/jgrg.20042","volume":"118","author":"L Giglio","year":"2013","unstructured":"Giglio L, Van der Randerson JT, Werf GR (2013) Analysis of daily, monthly, and annual burned area using the fourth-generation global fire emissions database (GFED4). J Geophys Res 118:317\u2013328. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/jgrg.20042","journal-title":"J Geophys Res"},{"key":"363_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scs.2021.103611","volume":"78","author":"JPA Gobo","year":"2022","unstructured":"Gobo JPA, Wollmann CA, Celuppi MC, Galvani E, Faria MR, Mendes D, Oliveira-J\u00fanior JF, Gon\u00e7alves FLT (2022) The bioclimate present and future in the state Of S\u00e3o Paulo\/Brazil: space-time analysis of human thermal comfort. Sustain Cities Soc 78:103611. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.scs.2021.103611","journal-title":"Sustain Cities Soc"},{"key":"363_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4324\/9780203713785","volume-title":"The atlas of African affairs","author":"IL Griffiths","year":"2013","unstructured":"Griffiths IL (2013) The atlas of African affairs. Routledge"},{"key":"363_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"206","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0469(1978)035<0206:ATLPEA>2.0.CO;2","volume":"35","author":"I Held","year":"1978","unstructured":"Held I, Suarez M (1978) A two-level primitive equation atmosphere model designed for climate sensitivity experiments. J Atmos Sci 35:206\u2013229. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/1520-0469(1978)035%3c0206:ATLPEA%3e2.0.CO;2","journal-title":"J Atmos Sci"},{"key":"363_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1351","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-19-0395.1","volume":"33","author":"B Huang","year":"2020","unstructured":"Huang B, Menne MJ, Boyer T, Freeman E, Gleason BE, Lawrimore JH, Liu C, Rennie JJ, Schreck C, Sun F, Vose R, Williams CN, Yin X, Zhang H-M (2020) Uncertainty estimates for sea surface temperature and land surface air temperature in NOAA Global Temp version 5. J Clim 33:1351\u20131379. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/JCLI-D-19-0395.1","journal-title":"J Clim"},{"key":"363_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"0940b8","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/ab9db2","volume":"15","author":"Y Jiang","year":"2020","unstructured":"Jiang Y, Zhou L, Raghavendra A (2020) Observed changes in fire patterns and possible drivers over Central Africa. Environ Res Lett 15:0940b8. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ab9db2","journal-title":"Environ Res Lett"},{"key":"363_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"227","DOI":"10.3389\/feart.2018.00227","volume":"6","author":"JC Jimenez","year":"2018","unstructured":"Jimenez JC, Libonati R, Peres LF (2018) Droughts over Amazonia in 2005, 2010, and 2015: a cloud cover perspective. Front Earth Sci 6:227. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/feart.2018.00227","journal-title":"Front Earth Sci"},{"key":"363_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3295","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-021-81233-4","volume":"11","author":"J Joshi","year":"2021","unstructured":"Joshi J, Sukumar R (2021) Improving prediction and assessment of global fires using multilayer neural networks. Sci Rep 11:3295. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41598-021-81233-4","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"363_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"437","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2","volume":"77","author":"E Kalnay","year":"1996","unstructured":"Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP\/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437\u2013472. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/1520-0477(1996)077%3c0437:TNYRP%3e2.0.CO;2","journal-title":"Bull Am Meteorol Soc"},{"key":"363_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3044","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-020-16757-w","volume":"11","author":"G Konapala","year":"2020","unstructured":"Konapala G, Mishra AK, Wada Y, Mann ME (2020) Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation. Nat Commun 11:3044. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41467-020-16757-w","journal-title":"Nat Commun"},{"key":"363_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"8325","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-15-8325-2022","volume":"15","author":"S Kotsuki","year":"2022","unstructured":"Kotsuki S, Miyoshi T, Kondo K, Potthast R (2022) A local particle filter and its Gaussian mixture extension implemented with minor modifications to the LETKF. Geosci Model Dev 15:8325\u20138348. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/gmd-15-8325-2022","journal-title":"Geosci Model Dev"},{"key":"363_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"79","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-005-0085-5","volume":"26","author":"F Kucharski","year":"2005","unstructured":"Kucharski F, Molteni F, Bracco A (2005) Decadal interactions between the western tropical Pacific and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Clim Dyn 26:79\u201391. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00382-005-0085-5","journal-title":"Clim Dyn"},{"key":"363_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"187","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0442(2002)015<0187:RVIWAD>2.0.CO;2","volume":"15","author":"L Le Barb\u00e9","year":"2002","unstructured":"Le Barb\u00e9 L, Lebel T, Tapsoba D (2002) Rainfall variability in West Africa during the Years 1950\u201390. J Clim 15:187\u2013202. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/1520-0442(2002)015%3c0187:RVIWAD%3e2.0.CO;2","journal-title":"J Clim"},{"key":"363_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"8630","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-13-00714.1","volume":"27","author":"B Liebmann","year":"2014","unstructured":"Liebmann B, Hoerling MP, Funk C, Blad\u00e9 I, Dole RM, Allured D, Quan X, Pegion P, Eischeid JK (2014) Understanding recent eastern horn of Africa rainfall variability and change. J Clim 27:8630\u20138645. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/JCLI-D-13-00714.1","journal-title":"J Clim"},{"key":"363_CR35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"9","DOI":"10.1186\/s42408-022-00132-9","volume":"18","author":"EL Loudermilk","year":"2022","unstructured":"Loudermilk EL, O\u2019Brien JJ, Goodrick SL, Linn RR, Skowronski NS, Hiers JK (2022) Vegetation\u2019s influence on fire behavior goes beyond just being fuel. Fire Ecol 18:9. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/s42408-022-00132-9","journal-title":"Fire Ecol"},{"key":"363_CR36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"175","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-002-0268-2","volume":"20","author":"F Molteni","year":"2003","unstructured":"Molteni F (2003) Atmospheric simulations using a GCM with simplified physical parametrizations. I: model climatology and variability in multi-decadal experiments. Clim Dyn 20:175\u2013191. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00382-002-0268-2","journal-title":"Clim Dyn"},{"key":"363_CR37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jsames.2021.103623","volume":"112","author":"JF Oliveira-J\u00fanior","year":"2021","unstructured":"Oliveira-J\u00fanior JF, Mendes D, Correia Filho WLF, Silva Junior CA, Gois G, Jardim AMRF, Silva MV, Lyra GB, Teodoro PE, Pimentel LCG, Lima M, Santiago DB, Rog\u00e9rio JP, Marinho AAR (2021) Fire foci in South America: impact and causes, fire hazard and future scenarios. J South Am Earth Sci 112:103623. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jsames.2021.103623","journal-title":"J South Am Earth Sci"},{"key":"363_CR38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1633","DOI":"10.5194\/hess-11-1633-2007","volume":"11","author":"MC Peel","year":"2007","unstructured":"Peel MC, Finlayson BL, McMahon TA (2007) Updated world map of the K\u00f6ppen-Geiger climate classification. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 11:1633\u20131644. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/hess-11-1633-2007","journal-title":"Hydrol Earth Syst Sci"},{"key":"363_CR39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"170","DOI":"10.1029\/98EO00125","volume":"79","author":"SG Philander","year":"1998","unstructured":"Philander SG (1998) Who is El Ni\u00f1o? Eos Trans Am Geophys Union 79:170\u2013170","journal-title":"Eos Trans Am Geophys Union"},{"key":"363_CR40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"23","DOI":"10.1038\/s41612-022-00248-4","volume":"5","author":"D Richardson","year":"2022","unstructured":"Richardson D, Black AS, Irving D, Matear RJ, Monselesan DP, Risbey JS, Tozer CR (2022) Global increase in wildfire potential from compound fire weather and drought. Npj Clim Atmos Sci 5:23. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41612-022-00248-4","journal-title":"Npj Clim Atmos Sci"},{"key":"363_CR41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"528","DOI":"10.1029\/2018EF001020","volume":"7","author":"G Rohat","year":"2019","unstructured":"Rohat G, Flacke J, Dosio A, Dao H, van Maarseveen M (2019) Projections of human exposure to dangerous heat in African cities under multiple socioeconomic and climate scenarios. Earth\u2019s Future 7:528\u2013546. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2018EF001020","journal-title":"Earth's Future"},{"key":"363_CR42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3249","DOI":"10.1080\/01431161003698260","volume":"32","author":"O Rojas","year":"2011","unstructured":"Rojas O, Rembold F, Delinc\u00e9 J, L\u00e9o O (2011) Using the NDVI as auxiliary data for rapid quality assessment of rainfall estimates in Africa. Int J Remote Sens 32:3249\u20133265. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/01431161003698260","journal-title":"Int J Remote Sens"},{"key":"363_CR43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"112414","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jenvman.2021.112414","volume":"288","author":"J Russell-Smith","year":"2021","unstructured":"Russell-Smith J, Yates C, Vernooij R, Eames T, van der Werf G, Ribeiro N, Johnston S (2021) Opportunities and challenges for savanna burning emissions abatement in southern Africa. J Environ Manage 288:112414. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jenvman.2021.112414","journal-title":"J Environ Manage"},{"key":"363_CR44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1090","DOI":"10.3390\/rs11091090","volume":"11","author":"MV Saha","year":"2019","unstructured":"Saha MV, D\u2019Odorico P, Scanlon TM (2019) Kalahari wildfires drive continental post-fire brightening in sub-Saharan Africa. Remote Sens 11:1090. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/rs11091090","journal-title":"Remote Sens"},{"key":"363_CR45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jag.2020.102184","volume":"92","author":"F Sedano","year":"2020","unstructured":"Sedano F, Lisboa S, Duncanson L, Ribeiro N, Sitoe A, Sahajpal R, Tucker C (2020) Monitoring intra and inter annual dynamics of forest degradation from charcoal production in Southern Africa with Sentinel\u20132 imagery. Int J Appl Earth Obs Geoinf 92:102184. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jag.2020.102184","journal-title":"Int J Appl Earth Obs Geoinf"},{"key":"363_CR46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1208","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-022-28835-2","volume":"13","author":"M Senande-Rivera","year":"2022","unstructured":"Senande-Rivera M, Insua-Costa D, Miguez-Macho G (2022) Spatial and temporal expansion of global wildland fire activity in response to climate change. Nat Commun 13:1208. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41467-022-28835-2","journal-title":"Nat Commun"},{"key":"363_CR47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloplacha.2021.103597","volume":"205","author":"J Spinoni","year":"2021","unstructured":"Spinoni J, Barbosa P, Cherlet M, Forzieri G, McCormick N, Naumann G, Dosio A (2021) How will the progressive global increase of arid areas affect population and land-use in the 21st century? Glob Planet Change 205:103597. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.gloplacha.2021.103597","journal-title":"Glob Planet Change"},{"key":"363_CR48","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.17159\/sajs.2016\/20150489","volume":"112","author":"S Strydom","year":"2016","unstructured":"Strydom S, Savage MJ (2016) A spatio-temporal analysis of fires in South Africa. S Afr J Sci 112:1\u20138. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.17159\/sajs.2016\/20150489","journal-title":"S Afr J Sci"},{"key":"363_CR49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4324\/9781003031840","volume-title":"An introduction to African politics","author":"A Thomson","year":"2022","unstructured":"Thomson A (2022) An introduction to African politics. Taylor & Francis"},{"key":"363_CR50","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2771","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0477(1997)078<2771:TDOENO>2.0.CO;2","volume":"78","author":"KE Trenberth","year":"1997","unstructured":"Trenberth KE (1997) The definition of El Nino. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:2771\u20132778. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/1520-0477(1997)078%3c2771:TDOENO%3e2.0.CO;2","journal-title":"Bull Am Meteorol Soc"},{"key":"363_CR51","volume-title":"Fire effects and management in African grasslands and savannas. Range and Animal Science and Resource Management (Vol II)","author":"WSW Trollope","year":"1997","unstructured":"Trollope WSW, Trollope LA (1997) Fire effects and management in African grasslands and savannas. Range and Animal Science and Resource Management (Vol II). Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems, Nelspruit"},{"key":"363_CR52","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"473","DOI":"10.1590\/0102-77863230013","volume":"32","author":"DI Uele","year":"2017","unstructured":"Uele DI, Lyra GB, Oliveira J\u00fanior JF (2017) Variabilidade Espacial e Intranual das Chuvas na Regi\u00e3o Sul de Mo\u00e7ambique, \u00c1frica Austral. Rev Bras Meteorol 32:473\u2013484. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1590\/0102-77863230013","journal-title":"Rev Bras Meteorol"},{"key":"363_CR53","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2007","DOI":"10.5194\/acp-16-2007-2016","volume":"16","author":"CA Varotsos","year":"2016","unstructured":"Varotsos CA, Tzanis CG, Sarlis NV (2016) On the progress of the 2015\u20132016 El Ni\u00f1o event. Atmos Chem Phys 16:2007\u20132011. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/acp-16-2007-2016","journal-title":"Atmos Chem Phys"},{"key":"363_CR54","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"216","DOI":"10.1038\/s41597-020-0554-z","volume":"7","author":"C Vitolo","year":"2020","unstructured":"Vitolo C, Di Giuseppe F, Barnard C, Coughlan R, San-Miguel-Ayanz J, Libert\u00e1 G, Krzeminski B (2020) ERA5-based global meteorological wildfire danger maps. Sci Data 7:216. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41597-020-0554-z","journal-title":"Sci Data"},{"key":"363_CR55","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1007\/s11676-022-01487-0","volume":"1","author":"C Wan","year":"2022","unstructured":"Wan C, Roy SS (2022) Geospatial characteristics of fire occurrences in southern hemispheric Africa and Madagascar during 2001\u20132020. J for Res 1:1\u201311. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s11676-022-01487-0","journal-title":"J for Res"},{"key":"363_CR56","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"4495","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.15190","volume":"26","author":"F Wei","year":"2020","unstructured":"Wei F, Wang S, Fu B, Brandt M, Pan N, Wang C, Fensholt R (2020) Nonlinear dynamics of fires in Africa over recent decades controlled by precipitation. Glob Change Biol 26:4495\u20134505. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/gcb.15190","journal-title":"Glob Change Biol"},{"key":"363_CR57","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"29","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cosust.2020.09.004","volume":"48","author":"F Wei","year":"2021","unstructured":"Wei F, Wang S, Brandt M, Fu B, Meadows ME, Wang L, Fensholt R (2021) Responses and feedbacks of African dryland ecosystems to environmental changes. Curr Opin Environ Sust 48:29\u201335. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.cosust.2020.09.004","journal-title":"Curr Opin Environ Sust"},{"key":"363_CR58","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agrformet.2021.108704","volume":"312","author":"X Xie","year":"2022","unstructured":"Xie X, He B, Guo L, Huang L, Hao X, Zhang Y, Wang S (2022) Revisiting dry season vegetation dynamics in the Amazon rainforest using different satellite vegetation datasets. Agric for Meteorol 312:108704. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.agrformet.2021.108704","journal-title":"Agric for Meteorol"},{"key":"363_CR59","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/1755-1315\/34\/1\/012041","volume":"34","author":"H Xu","year":"2016","unstructured":"Xu H, Abdul-Kadar F, Gao P (2016) An information model for managing multi-dimensional gridded data in a GIS. IOP Conf Ser Earth Environ Sci 34:012041. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1088\/1755-1315\/34\/1\/012041","journal-title":"IOP Conf Ser Earth Environ Sci"}],"container-title":["Earth Systems and Environment"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s41748-023-00363-z.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s41748-023-00363-z\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s41748-023-00363-z.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,3]],"date-time":"2024-02-03T16:19:24Z","timestamp":1706977164000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s41748-023-00363-z"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,1]]},"references-count":59,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,1]]}},"alternative-id":["363"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s41748-023-00363-z","relation":{},"ISSN":["2509-9426","2509-9434"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2509-9426","type":"print"},{"value":"2509-9434","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,1]]},"assertion":[{"value":"13 August 2023","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"12 November 2023","order":2,"name":"revised","label":"Revised","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"24 November 2023","order":3,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"3 January 2024","order":4,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"The authors declare no competing interests.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Conflict of interest"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethics approval and consent to participate"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":4,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Consent for publication"}}]}}