{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,27]],"date-time":"2026-01-27T14:32:56Z","timestamp":1769524376436,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":77,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[1994,1,1]],"date-time":"1994-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":757382400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/tdm\/userlicense\/1.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Decision Support Systems"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[1994,1]]},"DOI":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2003,6,30]],"date-time":"2003-06-30T12:15:45Z","timestamp":1056975345000},"page":"1-24","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":131,"title":["Assessing the quality of expert judgment"],"prefix":"10.1016","volume":"11","author":[{"given":"Fergus","family":"Bolger","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"George","family":"Wright","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"78","reference":[{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"67","DOI":"10.3758\/BF03197494","article-title":"Some Psycholinguistic Aspects of Person Perception","volume":"2","author":"Anderson","year":"1974","journal-title":"Memory and Cognition"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB2_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4","DOI":"10.1037\/h0037314","article-title":"Cue Utilization and Expert Judgments: A Comparison of Independent Auditors With Other Judges","volume":"59","author":"Ashton","year":"1974","journal-title":"Journal of Applied Psychology"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB2_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"437","DOI":"10.1037\/h0037314","article-title":"Cue Utilization and Expert Judgments: A Comparison of Independent Auditors With Other Judges","volume":"59","author":"Ashton","year":"1974","journal-title":"Journal of Applied Psychology"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB3","first-page":"151","article-title":"Calling the Shots in R and D","author":"Balthasar","year":"1978","journal-title":"Harvard Business Review"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB4_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2","DOI":"10.2307\/2490781","article-title":"Expert Judgment in the Audit Team: A Source Reliability Approach","volume":"21","author":"Bamber","year":"1983","journal-title":"Journal of Accounting Research"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB4_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"396","DOI":"10.2307\/2490781","article-title":"Expert Judgment in the Audit Team: A Source Reliability Approach","volume":"21","author":"Bamber","year":"1983","journal-title":"Journal of Accounting Research"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB5","first-page":"671","article-title":"Some Problems in the Sociology Of The Professions","volume":"92","author":"Barber","year":"1963","journal-title":"Daedalus"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB6","first-page":"244","article-title":"A Comparison of the Accuracy of Corporate and Security Analysts' Forecasts of Earnings","volume":"51","author":"Basi","year":"1976","journal-title":"The Accounting Review"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB7","series-title":"Judgmental Forecasting","article-title":"Assessing Human Judgment: Has It Been Done, Can It Be Done, Should It Be Done?","author":"Beach","year":"1987"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB8","series-title":"Research and Development in Expert Systems VI","article-title":"Lust for Life: Developing Expert Systems for Life Assurance Underwriting","author":"Bolger","year":"1989"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB9","series-title":"Aspects of a Theory of Syntax","author":"Chomsky","year":"1965"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"278","DOI":"10.1037\/0021-9010.68.2.278","article-title":"Effects of Expertise and Experience on Risk Judgments","volume":"68","author":"Christensen-Szalanski","year":"1983","journal-title":"Journal of Applied Psychology"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB11","series-title":"Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences","author":"Cohen","year":"1977"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"223","DOI":"10.1002\/bdm.3960010403","article-title":"An Availability Bias in Professional Judgment","volume":"1","author":"Dube-Rioux","year":"1988","journal-title":"Journal of Behavioral Decision Making"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"269","DOI":"10.1037\/h0026309","article-title":"Intuitive Inference About Normally Distributed Populations","volume":"78","author":"DuCharme","year":"1968","journal-title":"Journal of Experimental Psychology"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"380","DOI":"10.1037\/h0053870","article-title":"The Theory of Decision Making","volume":"51","author":"Edwards","year":"1954","journal-title":"Psychological Bulletin"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB15","series-title":"Cognitive Processes in Choice and Decision Behaviour","first-page":"1","article-title":"Learning From Experience and Suboptimal Rules in Decision Making","author":"Einhorn","year":"1980"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"562","DOI":"10.1037\/h0037164","article-title":"Expert Judgment: Some Necessary Conditions and an Example","volume":"59","author":"Einhorn","year":"1974","journal-title":"Journal of Applied Psychology"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB17","series-title":"The Sociology of the Professions","author":"Elliot","year":"1972"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB18","series-title":"Expert Systems in the Microelectronic Age","article-title":"Themes and Case Studies in Knowledge Engineering","author":"Feigenbaum","year":"1989"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"330","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-1523.4.2.330","article-title":"Fault Trees: Sensitivity of Estimated Failure Probabilities to Problem Representation","volume":"4","author":"Fischhoff","year":"1978","journal-title":"Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"263","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(84)90024-2","article-title":"Reducing the Influence of Irrelevant Information on Experienced Decision Makers","volume":"33","author":"Gaeth","year":"1984","journal-title":"Organizational Behaviour and Human Performance"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB21","first-page":"902","article-title":"Encroachment, Charlatanism and the Emerging Professions: Psychology, Sociology and Medicine","volume":"25","author":"Goode","year":"1960","journal-title":"American Sociological Review"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"94","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0285(84)90005-7","article-title":"Conceptual Competence and Children's Counting","volume":"16","author":"Greeno","year":"1984","journal-title":"Cognitive Psychology"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB23","series-title":"Expert Judgment and Expert Systems","article-title":"Towards a Unified Approach to the Study of Expert Judgment","author":"Hammond","year":"1987"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB24","first-page":"335","article-title":"Drawing the Line on Expert Opinions","volume":"8","author":"Hoenig","year":"1985","journal-title":"Journal of Products Liability"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"227","DOI":"10.2307\/2344550","article-title":"Reliability of Subjective Evaluations in a High Incentive Situation","volume":"137","author":"Hoerl","year":"1974","journal-title":"Journal of the Royal statistical Society"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB26","first-page":"424","article-title":"An Interesting Seed Corn Experiment","volume":"17","author":"Hughes","year":"1917","journal-title":"Iowa Agriculturalist"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB27","first-page":"82","article-title":"Non-Computer Forecasts to Use Right Now","volume":"68","author":"Jenks","year":"1983","journal-title":"Business Marketing"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB28","series-title":"Professions and Power","author":"Johnson","year":"1972"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB29_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1093\/jmp\/8.1.77","article-title":"What Kind of Expert Should a System Be?","volume":"8","author":"Johnson","year":"1983","journal-title":"Journal of Medical Philosophy"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB29_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"77","DOI":"10.1093\/jmp\/8.1.77","article-title":"What Kind of Expert Should a System Be?","volume":"8","author":"Johnson","year":"1983","journal-title":"Journal of Medical Philosophy"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB30","series-title":"Thinking: Readings in Cognitive Science","article-title":"A Theoretical Analysis of Insight Into a Reasoning Task","author":"Johnson-Laird","year":"1977"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB31","first-page":"95","article-title":"You Can Bank on Uncertainty","author":"Kabus","year":"1976","journal-title":"Harvard Business Review"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB32","series-title":"Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases","year":"1982"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"98","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(87)90047-1","article-title":"Facing Uncertainty in the Game of Bridge: A Calibration Study","volume":"39","author":"Keren","year":"1987","journal-title":"Organizational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2244","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1983)111<2244:UOAAPT>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Use of an Analogue Procedure to Formulate Objective Probabilistic Temperature Forecasts in the Netherlands","volume":"111","author":"Kruizinga","year":"1983","journal-title":"Monthly Weather Review"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB35","first-page":"19","article-title":"Traffic usage Forecasting: Is it an Art or a Science?","author":"Lawson","year":"1983","journal-title":"Telephony"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB36","series-title":"Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases","article-title":"Calibration of Subjective Probabilities: The State of the Art to 1980","author":"Lichtenstein","year":"1982"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"15","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2044-8317.1986.tb00842.x","article-title":"Credible Conceptions and Implausible Probabilities","volume":"39","author":"MacDonald","year":"1986","journal-title":"British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB38","series-title":"paper presented at SPUDM-1","article-title":"More About Linda, or Conjunctions in Context","author":"MacDonald","year":"1987"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"366","DOI":"10.1097\/00005650-198404000-00008","article-title":"Judged Frequency of Complications After Invasive Diagnostic Procedures: Systematic Biases of a Physician Population","volume":"22","author":"Manu","year":"1984","journal-title":"Medical Care"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB40","series-title":"Behavioral Decision Making","article-title":"A Comparative Evaluation of Objective and Subjective Weather Forecasts in the United States","author":"Murphy","year":"1985"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"305","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(86)90003-8","article-title":"Experts, Amateurs and Refrigerators: Comparing Expert and Amateur Negotiators in a Novel Task","volume":"38","author":"Neale","year":"1986","journal-title":"Organisational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB42","series-title":"Human Problem Solving","author":"Newell","year":"1972"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"84","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(87)90046-X","article-title":"Experts, Amateurs and Real-Estate: An Anchoring and Adjust Perspective in Property Pricing Decisions","volume":"39","author":"Northcraft","year":"1987","journal-title":"Organisational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1037\/h0093849","article-title":"The Relationship of Clinical Experience and Training Methods to Several Criteria of Clinical Prediction","volume":"76","author":"Oskamp","year":"1962","journal-title":"Psychological Monographs"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"383","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.92.2.382","article-title":"Contingent decision behaviour","volume":"92","author":"Payne","year":"1982","journal-title":"Psychological Bulletin"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB46","series-title":"Judgmental Forecasting","article-title":"On the Adequacy of Judgment Forecasts","author":"Phillips","year":"1987"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"346","DOI":"10.1037\/h0023653","article-title":"Conservatism in a Simple Probability Influence Task","volume":"72","author":"Phillips","year":"1966","journal-title":"Journal of Experimental Psychology"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB48","series-title":"Decision Making and Change in Cognitive Affairs","article-title":"Decision Making and Cognition","author":"Pitz","year":"1977"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ps.35.020184.001035","article-title":"Judgment and Decision Making: Theory and Applications","volume":"35","author":"Pitz","year":"1984","journal-title":"Annual Review of Psychology"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB50","article-title":"Applied Statistical Decision Theory, Boston, Mass","author":"Raiffa","year":"1961","journal-title":"Harvard Business School Division of Research"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB51","series-title":"Expert Judgment and Expert Systems","first-page":"289","article-title":"Psychological Characteristics of Expert Decision Makers","author":"Shanteau","year":"1987"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"22","DOI":"10.1109\/THFE.1966.231980","article-title":"Value as a Determiner of Subjective Probability","volume":"HFE-7","author":"Slovic","year":"1966","journal-title":"IEEE Transactions on Human Factors in Electronics"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB53","series-title":"Human Performance and Productivity Vol. 12, Information Processing and Decision Making","article-title":"Towards Understanding and Improving Decisions","author":"Slovic","year":"1982"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB54_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2","DOI":"10.2307\/1421531","article-title":"Decision Making with Risk and Uncertainty: The Case of Horse Racing","volume":"91","author":"Snyder","year":"1978","journal-title":"American Journal of Psychology"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB54_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"201","DOI":"10.2307\/1421531","article-title":"Decision Making with Risk and Uncertainty: The Case of Horse Racing","volume":"91","author":"Snyder","year":"1978","journal-title":"American Journal of Psychology"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB55","first-page":"39","article-title":"Probing the Past for the Future","volume":"130","author":"Soergel","year":"1983","journal-title":"Sales and Marketing Management"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"381","DOI":"10.1016\/0160-2527(83)90025-0","article-title":"Predicting Dangerousness Among the Mentally Ill: Art, Magic and Science","volume":"6","author":"Steadman","year":"1983","journal-title":"International Journal of Law and Psychiatry"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB57_1","first-page":"3","article-title":"Reliability and Accuracy in the Inspection of Hard Red Winter Wheat","volume":"7","author":"Trumbo","year":"1962","journal-title":"Cereal Science Today"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB57_2","first-page":"62","article-title":"Reliability and Accuracy in the Inspection of Hard Red Winter Wheat","volume":"7","author":"Trumbo","year":"1962","journal-title":"Ceral Science Today"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB58","first-page":"1124","volume":"185","author":"Tversky","year":"1974","journal-title":"Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases Science"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB59","series-title":"Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research","author":"Von Winterfeldt","year":"1986"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB60","series-title":"Intelligent Decision Support in Process Environments","article-title":"Does the Expert Know? The Reliability of Predictions and Confidence Ratings of Experts","author":"Wagenaar","year":"1986"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB61","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"300","DOI":"10.2134\/agronj1923.00021962001500070006x","article-title":"What is in the Corn Judge's Mind?","volume":"15","author":"Wallace","year":"1923","journal-title":"Journal of the American Society of Agronomy"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB62","series-title":"Decision Synthesis","author":"Watson","year":"1987"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB63","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"252","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(73)90017-2","article-title":"Experiments in the Laboratory and the Real-World","volume":"10","author":"Winkler","year":"1973","journal-title":"Organizational Behaviour and Human Performance"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB64","series-title":"Behavioral Decision Theory","author":"Wright","year":"1984"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB65","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13","DOI":"10.1016\/0167-9236(87)90032-7","article-title":"Eliciting and modelling expert knowledge","volume":"3","author":"Wright","year":"1987","journal-title":"Decision Support Systems"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB66_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/0191-8869(88)90036-0","article-title":"Judgmental Forecasting: Personologism, Situationism or Interactionism?","volume":"9","author":"Wright","year":"1988","journal-title":"Personality and Individual Differences"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB66_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"109","DOI":"10.1016\/0191-8869(88)90036-0","article-title":"Judgmental Forecasting: Personologism, Situationism or Interactionism?","volume":"9","author":"Wright","year":"1988","journal-title":"Personality and Individual Differences"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB67","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"117","DOI":"10.1016\/0169-2070(89)90069-1","article-title":"Judgmental Probability Forecasts for Personal and Impersonal Events","volume":"5","author":"Wright","year":"1989","journal-title":"International Journal of Forecasting"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB68","series-title":"Expertise and Decision Support","year":"1992"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB69","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"132","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(82)90237-9","article-title":"External Correspondence: Decompositions of the Mean Probability Score","volume":"30","author":"Yates","year":"1982","journal-title":"Organizational Behaviour and Human Performance"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB70","series-title":"Judgment and Decision Making","author":"Yates","year":"1990"},{"key":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2_BIB71","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"349","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(73)90022-6","article-title":"Intuitive Cascaded Inferences","volume":"10","author":"Yousef","year":"1973","journal-title":"Organizational Behaviour and Human Performance"}],"container-title":["Decision Support Systems"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:0167923694900612?httpAccept=text\/xml","content-type":"text\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:0167923694900612?httpAccept=text\/plain","content-type":"text\/plain","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2019,3,18]],"date-time":"2019-03-18T11:56:13Z","timestamp":1552910173000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/linkinghub.elsevier.com\/retrieve\/pii\/0167923694900612"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[1994,1]]},"references-count":77,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[1994,1]]}},"alternative-id":["0167923694900612"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2","relation":{},"ISSN":["0167-9236"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0167-9236","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[1994,1]]}}}