{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,16]],"date-time":"2023-11-16T21:21:05Z","timestamp":1700169665196},"reference-count":149,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[1998,3,1]],"date-time":"1998-03-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":888710400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/tdm\/userlicense\/1.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["European Journal of Operational Research"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[1998,3]]},"DOI":"10.1016\/s0377-2217(97)00234-8","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2002,7,25]],"date-time":"2002-07-25T17:48:22Z","timestamp":1027619302000},"page":"267-276","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":16,"title":["Shifting the balance of health care into the 21st century"],"prefix":"10.1016","volume":"105","author":[{"given":"Geoff","family":"Royston","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]}],"member":"78","reference":[{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1282","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.309.6964.1282","article-title":"The greying of Europe","volume":"309","author":"Dall","year":"1994","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB2","volume":"vol. 1","author":"Parliamentary Office for Science and Technology","year":"1995","journal-title":"Factors affecting pressure on healthcare resources in house of commons health committee report on priority setting in the NHS"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB3","article-title":"The future of medicine","volume":"19","author":"Morrison","year":"1994","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB4","first-page":"273","article-title":"Advances in medical technology over the next 20 years","volume":"10","author":"Spiby","year":"1988","journal-title":"Community Medicine"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB5","series-title":"Health for all targets: The health policy for Europe, Copenhagen","year":"1993"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB6","series-title":"The Health of the Nation: A Strategy for Health in England","year":"1992"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"208","DOI":"10.2307\/3350138","article-title":"Compression of morbidity: Near or far?","volume":"67","author":"Fries","year":"1989","journal-title":"Millbank Quarterly"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB8","first-page":"26","article-title":"The expectation of life without disability in England and Wales","volume":"66","author":"Bebbington","year":"1991","journal-title":"Population Trends"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S253","DOI":"10.1093\/geronj\/47.5.S253","article-title":"Estimating the prevalence of long-term disability for an aging society","volume":"47","author":"Kunkel","year":"1992","journal-title":"Journal of Gerontology"},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"253","DOI":"10.2307\/3350259","article-title":"The illusion of failure: trends in the self-reported health of the US elderly","volume":"73","author":"Waidmann","year":"1995","journal-title":"The Milbank Quarterly"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB11","series-title":"Caring for People: Community Care in the Next Decade and Beyond","year":"1989"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"482","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.302.6775.482","article-title":"Stick testing","volume":"302","author":"Marks","year":"1991","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"308","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(94)91158-4","article-title":"Minimal access surgery: Harnessing the revolution","volume":"343","author":"Lawrence","year":"1994","journal-title":"The Lancet"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB14","series-title":"Working for Patients","year":"1989"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB15","series-title":"Chief medical officer's expert advisory group on cancers: A policy framework for commissioning cancer services","year":"1995"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB16","series-title":"Blurring the boundaries \u2014 the future of hospital and primary care","author":"Warner","year":"1993"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB17","series-title":"The Hospital of Tomorrow","author":"Jolly","year":"1992"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB18","series-title":"From Centre of Excellence to Community Support","author":"Vetter","year":"1995"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.2307\/3350311","article-title":"The citadel cannot hold: Technologies go outside the hospital, patients and doctors too","volume":"73","author":"Stoeckle","year":"1995","journal-title":"The Milbank Quarterly"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB20","series-title":"Acute Futures","author":"Harrison","year":"1996"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB21","series-title":"Patients' Charter","author":"Department of Health","year":"1992"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1109","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.305.6862.1109","article-title":"Asking patients about their treatment","volume":"305","author":"Sensky","year":"1992","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1140","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.309.6962.1140","article-title":"The profession of medicine","volume":"309","author":"Calman","year":"1994","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1144","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.309.6962.1144","article-title":"Patient Care and the General Practitioner","volume":"309","author":"Joint working party of the Welsh Council of the Royal College of General Practitioners and the Welsh general medical services committee","year":"1994","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"113","DOI":"10.1136\/jech.49.2.113","article-title":"Public health medicine and primary health care: Convergent, divergent or parallel paths","volume":"49","author":"Bhopal","year":"1995","journal-title":"Journal of Epidemology and Community Health"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"303","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.311.7000.303","article-title":"Has nursing lost its way?","volume":"311","author":"Short","year":"1995","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"309","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.311.7000.309","article-title":"With nurse practitioners, who needs house officers?","volume":"311","author":"Dowling","year":"1995","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1187","DOI":"10.1016\/0277-9536(86)90338-2","article-title":"New clinical roles for pharmacists: A study of role expansion","volume":"23","author":"Adamcik","year":"1986","journal-title":"Social Science and Medicine"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB29","series-title":"Tomorrow's Doctors: Recommendations on Undergraduate Education","author":"General Medical Council","year":"1993"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB30","series-title":"Nuffield Provincial Hospitals Trust","article-title":"Effectiveness and Efficiency: Random Reflections on Health Services","author":"Cochrane","year":"1972"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"407","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(95)92781-6","article-title":"Inpatient General Medicine is Evidence Based","volume":"346","author":"Ellis","year":"1995","journal-title":"The Lancet"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB32","series-title":"The Genetics of Common Diseases","year":"1995"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"45","DOI":"10.1136\/qshc.4.1.45","article-title":"Implementing findings of medical research: The Cochrane collaboration on effective professional practice","volume":"4","author":"Freemantle","year":"1995","journal-title":"Quality in Health Care"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"55","DOI":"10.1136\/qshc.4.1.55","article-title":"Developing and implementing clinical practice guidelines","volume":"4","author":"Grimshaw","year":"1995","journal-title":"Quality in Health Care"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"52","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM199501053320110","article-title":"The next transformation in the delivery of health care","volume":"332","author":"Kassirer","year":"1995","journal-title":"The New England Journal of Medicine"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1371","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.312.7043.1371a","article-title":"From black bag to black box: Will computers improve the NHS?","volume":"312","author":"Donaldson","year":"1996","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"225","DOI":"10.1136\/jech.49.3.225-a","article-title":"Getting research into practice","volume":"49","author":"Roland","year":"1995","journal-title":"Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB38","series-title":"Methods to promote the implementation of research findings in the NHS","year":"1995"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"435","DOI":"10.1136\/jech.48.5.435","article-title":"Evaluation of medical audit","volume":"48","author":"Robinson","year":"1994","journal-title":"Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1317","DOI":"10.1016\/0140-6736(93)92244-N","article-title":"Effect of clinical guidelines on medical practice: A systematic review of rigorous evaluations","volume":"342","author":"Grimshaw","year":"1993","journal-title":"The Lancet"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB41","series-title":"Economic analysis alongside control trials","author":"Drummond","year":"1994"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB42","series-title":"Local Voices: The Views of Local People in Purchasing for Health","author":"NHS Management Executive","year":"1992"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"680","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.304.6828.680","article-title":"Public opinion and purchasing","volume":"304","author":"Richardson","year":"1992","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.302.6767.1","article-title":"On the Oregon trail: Rationing health care","volume":"302","author":"Klein","year":"1991","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1457","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.304.6840.1457","article-title":"Warning signals from oregon","volume":"304","author":"Klein","year":"1992","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB46","article-title":"The new eugenics? Employers and genetic screening in the risk society","author":"Wyld","year":"1992","journal-title":"Futures Research Quarterly"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB47","article-title":"Survey on Biotechnology and Genetics","year":"1995","journal-title":"The Economist"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB48","first-page":"19","article-title":"Insufficient to simply be efficient","author":"Zimmern","year":"1995","journal-title":"Health Service Journal"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB49","series-title":"Biomedical Ethics","author":"Mappers","year":"1991"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB50","series-title":"Rational Analysis for a Problematic World: Problem Structuring Methods for Complexity","year":"1989"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB51","series-title":"Creative Thinking in the Decision and Management Sciences","author":"Evans","year":"1991"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"220","DOI":"10.1016\/0377-2217(92)90019-6","article-title":"Hexagons for systems thinking","volume":"59","author":"Hodgson","year":"1992","journal-title":"European Journal of Operational Research"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB53","series-title":"The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organisation","author":"Senge","year":"1992"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB54","series-title":"Modelling as Learning (special issue)","volume":"59","year":"1992"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB55","series-title":"Proceedings of the Fifth International Conference on System Science in Health Care","first-page":"1140","article-title":"A systematic framework with illustrative UK examples for applied health OR\/MS","author":"Royston","year":"1992"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"424","DOI":"10.1016\/S1070-3241(16)30025-6","article-title":"Framework for the continual improvement of health care","volume":"19","author":"Batalden","year":"1993","journal-title":"Journal on Quality Improvement"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB57","series-title":"Policy Analysis for the Real World","author":"Hogwood","year":"1984"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB58","series-title":"Decision Sciences: An Integrative Perspective","author":"Kleindorfer","year":"1993"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB59","series-title":"Metasystems Methodology","author":"Hall","year":"1989"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB60","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"797","DOI":"10.1057\/jors.1995.113","article-title":"The use of operational research tools: Survey of operational research practitioners in the UK","volume":"46","author":"Jeffrey","year":"1985","journal-title":"Journal of Operational Research Society"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB61","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1041","DOI":"10.1057\/jors.1995.148","article-title":"Strategic level of MS\/OR tool usage in the UK: An empirical survey","volume":"46","author":"Clark","year":"1995","journal-title":"Journal of Operational Research Society"},{"issue":"9\/10","key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB62","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1059","DOI":"10.1016\/0016-3287(95)00069-0","article-title":"Some practical hints for newcomers to health futures","volume":"27","author":"Nicholson","year":"1995","journal-title":"Futures"},{"issue":"8","key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB63","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"656","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.273.8.656","article-title":"Estimating health expenditure growth under managed competition: Science, simulations and scenarios","volume":"273","author":"Miller","year":"1995","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB64","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"269","DOI":"10.1016\/0168-8510(92)90159-9","article-title":"Forecasting the impact of demographic change: The case of the British national health service","volume":"20","author":"Gray","year":"1992","journal-title":"Health Policy"},{"issue":"No. 31","key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB65","article-title":"The impact of behavioural and biomedical advance on health trends over the next 25 years","author":"Hall","year":"1994","journal-title":"OHE Briefing, Office of Health Economics"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB66","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"253","DOI":"10.1016\/S0033-3506(05)80418-4","article-title":"Keeping strategic thinking in strategic planning: Macro-environmental analysis in a state department of public health","author":"Ginter","year":"1992","journal-title":"Public Health"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB67","article-title":"Health Futures in support of health for all","author":"Taket","year":"1993"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB68","first-page":"18","article-title":"Tomorrow's world","author":"Hadridge","year":"1995","journal-title":"Health Service Journal"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB69","article-title":"Future patterns: An approach to policy and strategy development in the new NHS","author":"Office of Public Management\/NHS Executive Northern and Yorkshire Region","year":"1995","journal-title":"Office of Public Management"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB70","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"22","DOI":"10.1016\/0024-6301(95)00024-D","article-title":"Future health scenarios \u2014 strategic issues for the British health service","volume":"28","author":"Longley","year":"1995","journal-title":"Long Range Planning"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB71","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1137","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.309.6962.1137","article-title":"Scenario analysis of the future of medicines","volume":"309","author":"Leufkens","year":"1994","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB72","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"73","DOI":"10.1002\/hpm.4740030203","article-title":"Scenarios for health planning and management: The dutch experience","volume":"3","author":"Schreuder","year":"1988","journal-title":"International Journal of Health Planning and Management"},{"issue":"No. 1","key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB74","article-title":"Health futures for the 20th century in health futures","author":"Bezold","year":"1991","journal-title":"Newsletter of the International Health Futures Network"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB75","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2","DOI":"10.1016\/S8755-7223(86)80082-5","article-title":"Nursing in the 21st century","author":"Bezold","year":"1986","journal-title":"Journal of Professional Nursing"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB76","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"227","DOI":"10.1017\/S0266462300006450","article-title":"Innovation and diffusion of health related technologies: A conceptual framework","volume":"5","author":"Battista","year":"1989","journal-title":"International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB77","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"197","DOI":"10.1016\/0040-1625(87)90011-4","article-title":"A diffusion model with application to evolving medical technologies","volume":"31","author":"Homer","year":"1987","journal-title":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB78","series-title":"Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on System Science in Health Care","first-page":"351","article-title":"Diffusion of medical innovations: Microcomputer dynamic model","author":"Chrzanowski","year":"1988"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB79","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"439","DOI":"10.1016\/0167-6296(92)90015-S","article-title":"Technological diffusion in primary health care","volume":"11","author":"Klausen","year":"1992","journal-title":"Journal of Health Economics"},{"issue":"2,3","key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB80","article-title":"Modelling Complex Systems I and II","volume":"30","year":"1987","journal-title":"European Journal of Operational Research"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB81","series-title":"Complexity","author":"Waldrop","year":"1992"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB82","series-title":"Out of Control","author":"Kelly","year":"1994"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB83","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"87","DOI":"10.1016\/0040-1625(93)90008-U","article-title":"A stochastic cellular automata model of innovation diffusion","volume":"44","author":"Bhargava","year":"1993","journal-title":"Technological Forecasting and Social change"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB84","series-title":"Models of Non-communicable Diseases","year":"1992"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB85","first-page":"1","article-title":"The health benefits of prevention: A simulation approach","volume":"12","author":"Gunning-Schepers","year":"1989","journal-title":"Health Policy"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB86","series-title":"Proceedings of the Fifth International Conference on System Science in Health Care","article-title":"Multi-disease model of public health","author":"Barendregt","year":"1992"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB87","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"129","DOI":"10.1016\/0038-0121(92)90019-2","article-title":"Strategic decision support in preventative health care","volume":"26","author":"Heidenberger","year":"1992","journal-title":"Socio-Economic Planning Sciences"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB88","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"277","DOI":"10.1016\/0168-8510(92)90160-D","article-title":"Setting priorities in prevention","volume":"20","author":"Schaapveld","year":"1992","journal-title":"Health Policy"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB89","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"151","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.81.11.1456","article-title":"National health objectives for the year 2000: The demographic impact of health promotion and disease prevention","volume":"81","author":"Stoto","year":"1991","journal-title":"American Journal of Public Health"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB90","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"315","DOI":"10.1093\/imammb\/12.3-4.315","article-title":"Pathways of coronary care - A computer simulation model of the potential for health gain","volume":"12","author":"Bensley","year":"1995","journal-title":"Journal of Mathematics Applied in Medicine and Biology"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB91","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"719","DOI":"10.1017\/S0266462300002403","article-title":"A model for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of cholesterol-lowering treatment","volume":"8","author":"Glick","year":"1992","journal-title":"International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB92","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"694","DOI":"10.1017\/S0266462300002385","article-title":"Cost-effectiveness of the screening and treatment of diabetic retinopahy","volume":"8","author":"Fendrick","year":"1992","journal-title":"International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB93","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"171","DOI":"10.1016\/0168-8510(94)90038-8","article-title":"The resource implications and service outcomes of genetic services in the context of DNA technology","volume":"26","author":"Beech","year":"1994","journal-title":"Health Policy"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB94","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"351","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.311.7001.351","article-title":"Using decision analysis to compare policies for antenatal screening for Down's syndrome","volume":"311","author":"Fletcher","year":"1995","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB95","series-title":"OR work in HIV\/AIDS","year":"1994"},{"issue":"3","key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB96","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"149","DOI":"10.1016\/0038-0121(92)90007-R","article-title":"Forecasting the extent of the HIV\/AIDS epidemic","volume":"26","author":"Harris","year":"1992","journal-title":"Socio-Economic Planning Sciences"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB97","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"273","DOI":"10.1057\/jors.1990.49","article-title":"Modelling the epidemiological consequences of HIV infection and AIDS: A contribution from operational research","volume":"41","author":"Roberts","year":"1990","journal-title":"Journal of Operational Research Society"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB98","first-page":"30","article-title":"Emerging viruses","author":"Guenno","year":"1995","journal-title":"Scientific American"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB99","series-title":"Health care needs assessment","author":"Beech","year":"1994"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB100","article-title":"Implementing community care","author":"Department of Health","year":"1993","journal-title":"Population needs assessment, Good Practice Guidance"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB101","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1071","DOI":"10.1057\/jors.1995.152","article-title":"Community health services in Rochdale family health services authority","volume":"46","author":"Rivett","year":"1995","journal-title":"Journal of Operational Research Society"},{"issue":"3","key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB102","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"229","DOI":"10.1016\/0168-8510(94)90053-1","article-title":"Dependency and the structure of care \u2014 some results from simulation of an area-based system of care","volume":"29","author":"Lagergren","year":"1994","journal-title":"Health Policy"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB103","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"262","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.bmb.a071213","article-title":"Balance of care: Some mathematical models of the national health service","volume":"30","author":"McDonald","year":"1974","journal-title":"British Medical Bulletin"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB104","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"481","DOI":"10.1016\/0305-0483(81)90004-9","article-title":"Joint strategic planning between health and local authorities","author":"Klemperer","year":"1981","journal-title":"Omega"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB105","series-title":"Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on System Science in Health Care","first-page":"363","article-title":"A microcomputer system for planning the Balance of Care for Elderly people","author":"Forte","year":"1988"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB106","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"221","DOI":"10.1055\/s-0038-1634832","article-title":"Balancing acute and long term care: the mathematics of throughput in departments of geriatric medicine","volume":"30","author":"Harrison","year":"1991","journal-title":"Meth. Inform. Med."},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB107","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"297","DOI":"10.2307\/146205","article-title":"Do community based long term care services reduce nursing home use: A transition probability analysis","volume":"28","author":"Greene","year":"1992","journal-title":"Journal of Human Resources"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB108","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"925","DOI":"10.1057\/jors.1993.160","article-title":"A case study in community care using systems thinking","volume":"44","author":"Wolstenholme","year":"1993","journal-title":"Journal of Operational Research Society"},{"issue":"3","key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB109","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"169","DOI":"10.1016\/0038-0121(92)90008-S","article-title":"Modelling the use of health services by populations of small areas to inform the allocation of central resources to larger regions","volume":"26","author":"Royston","year":"1992","journal-title":"Socio-Economic Planning Sciences"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB110","series-title":"Models of Non-communicable Diseases","article-title":"Resource allocation models and health service systems: An exploration","author":"Taket","year":"1992"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB111","series-title":"Nurse Manpower Planning: Approaches and Techniques","article-title":"Operational Research Services","author":"Department of Health and Social Security","year":"1983"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB112","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"125","DOI":"10.1016\/0038-0121(95)00004-6","article-title":"The SHARP way to plan health care services: a description of the system and some illustrative applications in nursing human resource planning","volume":"29","author":"Denton","year":"1995","journal-title":"Socio-Economic Planning Sciences"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB113","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"982","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.303.6808.982","article-title":"Changing patterns of work","volume":"303","author":"Doyle","year":"1991","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB114","first-page":"514","article-title":"Contracts at Numberside","author":"Reed","year":"1990","journal-title":"The Health Service Journal"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB115","article-title":"Regional health authority\/office of public management","author":"Thames","year":"1991","journal-title":"Care Kaleidoscope: Futures for Community Care"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB116","series-title":"Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on System Science in Health Care","first-page":"364","article-title":"Training administrative decision making in hospital: a management game","author":"Grutz","year":"1988"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB117","first-page":"400","article-title":"Decision logic in medical practice","volume":"26","author":"Lilford","year":"1992","journal-title":"J.R. Coll Physicians Lond"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB118","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"833","DOI":"10.1057\/jors.1991.164","article-title":"Hospital waiting list management models","volume":"42","author":"Worthington","year":"1991","journal-title":"Journal of Operational Research Society"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB119","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"705","DOI":"10.1057\/jors.1985.128","article-title":"Investigating outpatient departments: Implementable policies and qualitative approaches","volume":"36","author":"O'Keefe","year":"1985","journal-title":"Journal of Operational Research Society"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB120","series-title":"Queue action: a guide to tackling waiting times in outpatient departments","author":"NHS Management Executive","year":"1992"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB121","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6","DOI":"10.1108\/09526869310025626","article-title":"Quality management and operational research initiatives in a health service context","volume":"6","author":"Moores","year":"1993","journal-title":"International Journal of Health care Quality Assurance"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB122","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"430","DOI":"10.1136\/jcp.47.5.430","article-title":"Cytological screening and management of abnormalities in prevention of cervical cancer: An overview with stochastic modelling","volume":"47","author":"Sherlaw-Johnson","year":"1994","journal-title":"Journal of Clinical Pathology"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB123","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"143","DOI":"10.1136\/jech.40.2.143","article-title":"An evaluation of screening policies for cervical cancer in England and Wales using a computer simulation model","volume":"40","author":"Parkin","year":"1986","journal-title":"Journal of Epidemology and Community Health"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB124","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"529","DOI":"10.1057\/jors.1989.90","article-title":"Modelling the implications for hospital services of cervical cytology screening: A case history","volume":"40","author":"Boyd","year":"1989","journal-title":"Journal of Operational Research Society"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB125","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"916","DOI":"10.1057\/jors.1994.143","article-title":"Towards an operational model for prevention and treatment of asthma attacks","volume":"45","author":"Shahani","year":"1994","journal-title":"Journal of Operational Research Society"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB126","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"605","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.305.6854.605","article-title":"Simulation model for planning renal services in a district health authority","volume":"305","author":"Bolger","year":"1992","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB127","series-title":"Assessing the options in the cancer key area: Cervical screening","author":"NHS Executive","year":"1995"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB128","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1421","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.4780121508","article-title":"The value of randomisation and control in clinical trials","volume":"12","author":"Urbach","year":"1993","journal-title":"Statistics in Medicine"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB129","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6","DOI":"10.1136\/jech.48.1.6","article-title":"The best and the enemy of the good: randomised control trials, uncertainty and the role of patient choice in medical decision making","volume":"48","author":"McPherson","year":"1994","journal-title":"Journal of Epidemology and Community Health"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB130","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1407","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.312.7043.1407","article-title":"What value do computers provide to NHS hospitals?","volume":"312","author":"Lock","year":"1996","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB131","series-title":"Proceedings of the Fifth International Conference on System Science in Health Care","article-title":"The use of modelling and simulation as tools for the economic evaluation of information technologies in health care","author":"van der Loo","year":"1992"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB132","series-title":"Proceedings of the Fifth International Conference on System Science in Health Care","first-page":"1193","article-title":"Why isn't IT working? Studies of the development of computerised information systems for health services","author":"Taket","year":"1992"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB133","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"205","DOI":"10.1057\/ejis.1991.35","article-title":"A review of information system evaluation: content, context and process","volume":"1","author":"Symons","year":"1991","journal-title":"European Journal of Information Systems"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB134","series-title":"Proceedings of the First European Conference on IT Investment Evaluation, Henley on Thames September 1994","year":"1994"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB135","series-title":"PROBE guidance for NHS managers, HISS Central Team","year":"1996"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB136","first-page":"425","article-title":"Potential savings from using information technology applications in health care in the United States","volume":"12","author":"Neumann","year":"1996","journal-title":"International Journal of Technology Assessment"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB137","first-page":"5","article-title":"The research-practice gap and the role of decison analysis in closing it","volume":"4","author":"Dowie","year":"1996","journal-title":"Health Care Analysis"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB138","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1099","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.304.6834.1099","article-title":"Decision analysis in medicine","volume":"304","author":"Thornton","year":"1992","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB139","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"250","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM198701293160505","article-title":"Decision analysis","volume":"316","author":"Pauker","year":"1987","journal-title":"N. Eng. J. Med."},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB140","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"97","DOI":"10.1287\/opre.28.1.97","article-title":"An annotated bibliography of decision analytic applications to health care","volume":"28","author":"Krischer","year":"1980","journal-title":"Operations Research"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB141","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"21","DOI":"10.1016\/0167-6296(91)90015-F","article-title":"QALYs and the equity-efficiency trade off","volume":"10","author":"Wagstaff","year":"1991","journal-title":"Journal of Health Economics"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB142","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1331","DOI":"10.1016\/0277-9536(89)90352-3","article-title":"Choosing who shall not be treated in the NHS","volume":"28","author":"Charny","year":"1989","journal-title":"Soc. Sci. Med."},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB143","series-title":"Proceedings of Annual Meeting of EURO Operational Research Applied to Health Services Working Group","article-title":"Priority setting in healthcare: techniques and pitfalls","author":"Mullen","year":"1995"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB144","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"435","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.307.6901.435","article-title":"Priority setting in the NHS: Reports from six districts","volume":"307","author":"Ham","year":"1993","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB145","first-page":"451","article-title":"Ethical priority settting in the NHS: Avoiding \u2018playing with numbers\u2019","volume":"1","author":"Hudson","year":"1995","journal-title":"British Journal of Health Care Management"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB146","unstructured":"A. Hare (Personal communication)."},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB147","series-title":"Patients","author":"Luck","year":"1971"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB148","series-title":"Operational Research Applied to the Health Services","year":"1981"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB149","series-title":"OR in Health (special issue)","first-page":"127","volume":"29","year":"1987"},{"key":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(97)00234-8_BIB150","article-title":"Applications of Operations Research in Health Care Delivery","volume":"vol. 6","author":"Pierskalla","year":"1994"}],"container-title":["European Journal of Operational Research"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S0377221797002348?httpAccept=text\/xml","content-type":"text\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S0377221797002348?httpAccept=text\/plain","content-type":"text\/plain","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2020,1,14]],"date-time":"2020-01-14T18:05:05Z","timestamp":1579025105000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/linkinghub.elsevier.com\/retrieve\/pii\/S0377221797002348"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[1998,3]]},"references-count":149,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[1998,3]]}},"alternative-id":["S0377221797002348"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/s0377-2217(97)00234-8","relation":{},"ISSN":["0377-2217"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0377-2217","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[1998,3]]}}}