{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,8]],"date-time":"2026-09-08T01:28:16Z","timestamp":1788830896467,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":33,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,1]],"date-time":"2022-04-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1648771200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/tdm\/userlicense\/1.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,1]],"date-time":"2022-04-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1648771200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/legal\/tdmrep-license"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,21]],"date-time":"2022-03-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1647820800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000664","name":"Health Technology Assessment Programme","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000664","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000883","name":"University of Bristol","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NIHR129020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NIHR129020"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000883","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012317","name":"UCLH Biomedical Research Centre","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012317","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000272","name":"National Institute for Health Research","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000272","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["thelancet.com","elsevier.com","sciencedirect.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["eClinicalMedicine"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,4]]},"DOI":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,7]],"date-time":"2022-04-07T13:36:32Z","timestamp":1649338592000},"page":"101376","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/elsevier_cm_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":10,"special_numbering":"C","title":["Development and external validation of a clinical prediction model to aid coeliac disease diagnosis in primary care: An observational study"],"prefix":"10.1016","volume":"46","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9824-9335","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Martha M.C.","family":"Elwenspoek","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rachel","family":"O'Donnell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Joni","family":"Jackson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hazel","family":"Everitt","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Peter","family":"Gillett","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alastair D.","family":"Hay","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hayley E.","family":"Jones","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gerry","family":"Robins","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jessica C.","family":"Watson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sue","family":"Mallett","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Penny","family":"Whiting","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","reference":[{"issue":"4 Suppl 1","key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S57","DOI":"10.1053\/j.gastro.2005.02.014","article-title":"The prevalence of celiac disease in average-risk and at-risk Western European populations: a systematic review","volume":"128","author":"Dube","year":"2005","journal-title":"Gastroenterology"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"43","DOI":"10.1136\/gutjnl-2011-301346","article-title":"The Oslo definitions for coeliac disease and related terms","volume":"62","author":"Ludvigsson","year":"2013","journal-title":"Gut"},{"issue":"11","key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1225","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.281.24.2344","article-title":"Mortality in celiac disease, intestinal inflammation, and gluten sensitivity","volume":"302","author":"Green","year":"2009","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"issue":"9381","key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"383","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(03)14027-5","article-title":"Coeliac disease","volume":"362","author":"Green","year":"2003","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e23","DOI":"10.1097\/EDE.0000000000001006","article-title":"Changes in Testing for and Incidence of Celiac Disease in the United Kingdom: A Population-based Cohort Study","volume":"30","author":"West","year":"2019","journal-title":"Epidemiology"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1087","DOI":"10.1007\/s10620-006-9258-2","article-title":"The Canadian Celiac Health Survey","volume":"52","author":"Cranney","year":"2007","journal-title":"Dig Dis Sci"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"516","DOI":"10.1067\/mpd.2001.116298","article-title":"A prospective, longitudinal study of the long-term effect of treatment on bone density in children with celiac disease","volume":"139","author":"Mora","year":"2001","journal-title":"J Pediatr"},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"528","DOI":"10.1093\/humrep\/dep409","article-title":"The impact ofmaternal celiac disease on birthweight and preterm birth: a Danish population-based cohort study","volume":"25","author":"Khashan","year":"2010","journal-title":"Hum Reprod"},{"issue":"11","key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0187526","article-title":"Younger age at diagnosis predisposes to mucosal recovery in celiac disease on a gluten-free diet: A meta-analysis","volume":"12","author":"Szakacs","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"8","key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"933","DOI":"10.1080\/00365520903030795","article-title":"Incidence and prevalence of diagnosed coeliac disease in Finland: Results of effective case finding in adults","volume":"44","author":"Virta","year":"2009","journal-title":"Scandinavian Journal of Gastroenterology"},{"issue":"10","key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0258501","article-title":"The accuracy of diagnostic indicators for coeliac disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"16","author":"Elwenspoek","year":"2021","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0012","article-title":"Clinical Prediction Models. A Practical Approach to Development, Validation, and Updating. Second Edition","author":"Steyerberg","year":"2019","journal-title":"Statistics for Biology and Health"},{"issue":"10","key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"735","DOI":"10.7326\/L15-5093-2","article-title":"Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD)","volume":"162","author":"Collins","year":"2015","journal-title":"Ann Intern Med"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0014","unstructured":"Clinical Practice Research Datalink. CPRD GOLD June 2021 (Version 2021.06.001). Clinical Practice Research Datalink 2021."},{"issue":"6","key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1740","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyz034","article-title":"Data resource profile: Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum","volume":"48","author":"Wolf","year":"2019","journal-title":"Int J Epidemiol"},{"issue":"3","key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"827","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyv098","article-title":"Data Resource Profile: Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD)","volume":"44","author":"Herrett","year":"2015","journal-title":"Int J Epidemiol"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0017","unstructured":"Clinical Practice Research Datalink. CPRD Aurum June 2021 (Version 2021.06.001). Clinical Practice Research Datalink 2021."},{"issue":"5","key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"757","DOI":"10.1038\/ajg.2014.55","article-title":"Incidence and prevalence of celiac disease and dermatitis herpetiformis in the UK over two decades: population-based study","volume":"109","author":"West","year":"2014","journal-title":"Am J Gastroenterol"},{"issue":"8","key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1220","DOI":"10.1136\/gutjnl-2014-308285","article-title":"Causes of death in people with coeliac disease in England compared with the general population: a competing risk analysis","volume":"64","author":"Abdul Sultan","year":"2015","journal-title":"Gut"},{"issue":"7","key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e41308","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0041308","article-title":"Resource use and costs associated with Coeliac disease before and after diagnosis in 3,646 cases: Results of a UK primary care database analysis","volume":"7","author":"Violato","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0021","unstructured":"National Health Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE). Coeliac disease: recognition, assessment and management (NICE guideline 20). 2015. Available at: https:\/\/wwwniceorguk\/guidance\/ng20. Acessed 19 January 2021."},{"issue":"5","key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"583","DOI":"10.1177\/2050640619844125","article-title":"European Society for the Study of Coeliac Disease (ESsCD) guideline for coeliac disease and other gluten-related disorders","volume":"7","author":"Al-Toma","year":"2019","journal-title":"United European Gastroenterology Journal"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"141","DOI":"10.1097\/MPG.0000000000002497","article-title":"European Society Paediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition Guidelines for Diagnosing Coeliac Disease 2020","volume":"70","author":"Husby","year":"2020","journal-title":"Journal of Pediatric Gastroenterology and Nutrition"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0024","article-title":"Package \u2018pmsampsize\u2019 Calculates the Minimum Sample Size Required for Developing a Multivariable Prediction Model","author":"Ensor","year":"2022","journal-title":"CRAN"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1276","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.7992","article-title":"Minimum sample size for developing a multivariable prediction model: PART II binary and tim\u2026 t event outcomes","volume":"38","author":"Riley","year":"2019","journal-title":"Statistics in Medicine"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"48","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2288-8-48","article-title":"Advantages of the nested case-control design in diagnostic research","volume":"8","author":"Biesheuvel","year":"2008","journal-title":"BMC Medical Research Methodology"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0027","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"537","DOI":"10.1373\/clinchem.2009.134155","article-title":"Criteria for Scientific Evaluation of Novel Markers: A Perspective","volume":"56","author":"Moons","year":"2010","journal-title":"Clinical Chemistry"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"W1","DOI":"10.7326\/M18-1377","article-title":"PROBAST: A Tool to Assess Risk of Bias and Applicability of Prediction Model Studies: Explanation and Elaboration","volume":"170","author":"Moons","year":"2019","journal-title":"Ann Intern Med"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0029","series-title":"International Classification of Primary Care","year":"2015"},{"issue":"3","key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"834","DOI":"10.1053\/j.gastro.2009.05.040","article-title":"Analysis of HLA and non-HLA alleles can identify individuals at high risk for celiac disease","volume":"137","author":"Romanos","year":"2009","journal-title":"Gastroenterology"},{"issue":"3","key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"415","DOI":"10.1136\/gutjnl-2012-304110","article-title":"Improving coeliac disease risk prediction by testing non-HLA variants additional to HLA variants","volume":"63","author":"Romanos","year":"2014","journal-title":"Gut"},{"issue":"7","key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1165","DOI":"10.1111\/apt.15826","article-title":"A single nucleotide polymorphism genetic risk score to aid diagnosis of coeliac disease: a pilot study in clinical care","volume":"52","author":"Sharp","year":"2020","journal-title":"Aliment Pharmacol Ther"},{"issue":"6","key":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376_bib0033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"759","DOI":"10.1111\/apt.16263","article-title":"Letter: improved parsimony of genetic risk scores for coeliac disease through refined HLA modelling","volume":"53","author":"Erlichster","year":"2021","journal-title":"Aliment Pharmacol Ther"}],"container-title":["eClinicalMedicine"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S2589537022001067?httpAccept=text\/xml","content-type":"text\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S2589537022001067?httpAccept=text\/plain","content-type":"text\/plain","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,11]],"date-time":"2025-11-11T19:08:57Z","timestamp":1762888137000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/linkinghub.elsevier.com\/retrieve\/pii\/S2589537022001067"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,4]]},"references-count":33,"alternative-id":["S2589537022001067"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376","relation":{},"ISSN":["2589-5370"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2589-5370","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,4]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Elsevier","name":"publisher","label":"This article is maintained by"},{"value":"Development and external validation of a clinical prediction model to aid coeliac disease diagnosis in primary care: An observational study","name":"articletitle","label":"Article Title"},{"value":"eClinicalMedicine","name":"journaltitle","label":"Journal Title"},{"value":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.eclinm.2022.101376","name":"articlelink","label":"CrossRef DOI link to publisher maintained version"},{"value":"article","name":"content_type","label":"Content Type"},{"value":"\u00a9 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.","name":"copyright","label":"Copyright"}],"article-number":"101376"}}