{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,2]],"date-time":"2026-10-02T07:14:00Z","timestamp":1790925240534,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":54,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2012,3,1]],"date-time":"2012-03-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1330560000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/tdm\/userlicense\/1.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,2,14]],"date-time":"2016-02-14T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1455408000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":1445,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Epidemics"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2012,3]]},"DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2011,12,6]],"date-time":"2011-12-06T01:00:54Z","timestamp":1323133254000},"page":"9-21","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":44,"title":["A new approach to characterising infectious disease transmission dynamics from sentinel surveillance: Application to the Italian 2009\u20132010 A\/H1N1 influenza pandemic"],"prefix":"10.1016","volume":"4","author":[{"given":"Ilaria","family":"Dorigatti","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Simon","family":"Cauchemez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Andrea","family":"Pugliese","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Neil Morris","family":"Ferguson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","reference":[{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"68","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268810001317","article-title":"Model predictions and evaluation of possible control strategies for the 2009 A\/H1N1v influenza pandemic in Italy","volume":"139","author":"Ajelli","year":"2011","journal-title":"Epidemiology and Infection"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"453","DOI":"10.1093\/biostatistics\/1.4.453","article-title":"Spatial modelling of individual-level parasite counts using the negative binomial distribution","volume":"1","author":"Alexander","year":"2000","journal-title":"Biostatistics"},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"117","DOI":"10.1007\/s00430-010-0143-4","article-title":"Determination of serum antibodies against swine-origin influenza a virus H1N1\/09 by immunofluorescence, haemagglutination inhibition, and by neutralization tests: how is the prevalence rate of protecting antibodies in humans?","volume":"199","author":"Allwinn","year":"2010","journal-title":"Medical Microbiology and Immunology"},{"issue":"15","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7590","DOI":"10.1128\/JVI.01623-05","article-title":"Kinetics of influenza A virus infection in humans","volume":"80","author":"Baccam","year":"2006","journal-title":"Journal of Virology"},{"issue":"March (12)","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2370","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2010.01.002","article-title":"Vaccination against pandemic influenza A\/H1N1v in England: a real-time economic evaluation","volume":"28","author":"Baguelin","year":"2010","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e17074","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0017074","article-title":"Age-specific incidence of A\/H1N1 2009 influenza infection in England from sequential antibody prevalence data using likelihood-based estimation","volume":"6","author":"Baguelin","year":"2011","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"19","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0035","article-title":"A preliminary estimation of the reproduction ratio for new influenza A(H1N1) from the outbreak in Mexico, March\u2013April 2009","volume":"14","author":"Bo\u00eblle","year":"2009","journal-title":"Euro Surveillance"},{"issue":"25","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0040","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"885","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2007.1292","article-title":"Likelihood-based estimation of continuous-time epidemic models from time-series data: application to measles transmission in London","volume":"5","author":"Cauchemez","year":"2008","journal-title":"Journal of the Royal Society Interface"},{"issue":"December (27)","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0045","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2619","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa0905498","article-title":"Household transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in the United States","volume":"361","author":"Cauchemez","year":"2009","journal-title":"New England Journal of Medicine"},{"issue":"14","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0050","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1383","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2010.404","article-title":"2009 influenza A(H1N1) seroconversion rates and risk factors among distinct adult cohorts in Singapore","volume":"303","author":"Chen","year":"2010","journal-title":"JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association"},{"issue":"5","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0055","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1000436","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1000436","article-title":"Characterizing the epidemiology of the 2009 influenza A\/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico","volume":"8","author":"Chowell","year":"2011","journal-title":"PLoS Medicine"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0060","series-title":"Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases","author":"Diekmann","year":"2000"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0065","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"309","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1469-0691.2010.03171.x","article-title":"A review of the dynamics and severity of the pandemic A(H1N1) influenza virus on R\u00e9union Island, 2009","volume":"16","author":"D\u2019Ortenzio","year":"2010","journal-title":"Clinical Microbiology and Infection"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0070","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"129","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-9-129","article-title":"Potential for a global dynamic of influenza A (H1N1)","volume":"9","author":"Flahault","year":"2009","journal-title":"BMC Infectious Diseases"},{"issue":"June (5934)","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0075","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1557","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1176062","article-title":"Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): early findings","volume":"324","author":"Fraser","year":"2009","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0080","article-title":"The early transmission dynamics of H1N1pdm influenza in the United Kingdom","volume":"RRN1130","author":"Ghani","year":"2009","journal-title":"PLoS Current Influenza"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0085","series-title":"Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice","author":"Gilks","year":"1996"},{"issue":"10","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0090","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"673","DOI":"10.1503\/cmaj.091641","article-title":"Modelling mitigation strategies for pandemic (H1N1) 2009","volume":"181","author":"Gojovic","year":"2009","journal-title":"Canadian Medical Association Journal"},{"issue":"55","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0095","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"115","DOI":"10.3310\/hta14550-03","article-title":"Assessment of baseline age-specific antibody prevalence and incidence of infection to novel influenza AH1N1 2009","volume":"14","author":"Hardelid","year":"2010","journal-title":"Health Technology Assessment"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0100","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-9-5","article-title":"Mining social mixing patterns for infectious disease models based on a two-day population survey in Belgium","volume":"9","author":"Hens","year":"2009","journal-title":"BMC Infectious Diseases"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0105","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"187","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-9-187","article-title":"Estimating the impact of school closure on social mixing behaviour and the transmission of close contact infections in eight European countries","volume":"9","author":"Hens","year":"2009","journal-title":"BMC Infectious Diseases"},{"issue":"12","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0110","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e8032","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0008032","article-title":"Early assessment of anxiety and behavioral response to novel Swine-Origin Influenza A(H1N1)","volume":"4","author":"Jones","year":"2009","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0115","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"76","DOI":"10.1186\/1741-7015-7-76","article-title":"Combination strategies for pandemic influenza response \u2013 a systematic review of mathematical modeling studies","volume":"7","author":"Lee","year":"2009","journal-title":"BMC Medicine"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0120","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"468","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwr113","article-title":"Comparability of different methods for estimating influenza infection rates over a single epidemic wave","volume":"174","author":"Lee","year":"2011","journal-title":"American Journal of Epidemiology"},{"issue":"27","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0125","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2628","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa0906089","article-title":"Outbreak of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) at a New York City school","volume":"361","author":"Lessler","year":"2009","journal-title":"New England Journal of Medicine"},{"issue":"November (7066)","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0130","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"355","DOI":"10.1038\/nature04153","article-title":"Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence","volume":"438","author":"Lloyd-Smith","year":"2005","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0135","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e180","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0000180","article-title":"Maximum likelihood estimation of the negative binomial dispersion parameter for highly overdispersed data, with applications to infectious diseases","volume":"2","author":"Lloyd-Smith","year":"2007","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"November (11)","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0140","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1220","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0001220","article-title":"A biological model for influenza transmission: pandemic planning implications of asymptomatic infection and immunity","volume":"2","author":"Mathews","year":"2007","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0145","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"128","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-10-128","article-title":"Prior immunity helps to explain wave-like behaviour of pandemic influenza in 1918\u20139","volume":"10","author":"Mathews","year":"2010","journal-title":"BMC Infectious Diseases"},{"issue":"1681","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0150","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"557","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2009.1605","article-title":"The role of population heterogeneity and human mobility in the spread of pandemic influenza","volume":"277","author":"Merler","year":"2010","journal-title":"Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences"},{"issue":"March (9720)","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0155","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1100","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(09)62126-7","article-title":"Incidence of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 infection in England: a cross-sectional serological study","volume":"375","author":"Miller","year":"2010","journal-title":"The Lancet"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0160","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"381","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0050074","article-title":"Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases","volume":"5","author":"Mossong","year":"2008","journal-title":"PLoS Medicine"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0165","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103","DOI":"10.1016\/S0025-5564(02)00109-8","article-title":"A tutorial introduction to bayesian inference for stochastic epidemic models using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods","volume":"180","author":"O\u2019Neill","year":"2002","journal-title":"Mathematical Biosciences"},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0170","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e16460","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0016460","article-title":"The Effect of Risk Perception on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics","volume":"6","author":"Poletti","year":"2011","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"5","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0175","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"215","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1750-2659.2009.00100.x","article-title":"Initial human transmission dynamics of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in North America","volume":"3","author":"Pourbohloul","year":"2009","journal-title":"Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses"},{"issue":"December (12)","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0180","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1000207","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1000207","article-title":"The severity of pandemic H1N1 influenza in the United States, from April to July 2009: a Bayesian analysis","volume":"6","author":"Presanis","year":"2009","journal-title":"PLoS Medicine"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0185","series-title":"Numerical Recipes in C++, The Art of Scientific Computing","author":"Press","year":"2002"},{"issue":"14(27)","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0190","article-title":"Enhanced epidemiological surveillance of influenza A(H1N1)v in Italy","volume":"9","author":"Rizzo","year":"2009","journal-title":"Euro Surveillance"},{"issue":"April (20)","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0195","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3558","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2010.03.006","article-title":"Cross-reactive antibody responses to the 2009 A\/H1N1v influenza virus in the Italian population in the pre-pandemic period","volume":"28","author":"Rizzo","year":"2010","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"issue":"February (1)","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0200","first-page":"110","article-title":"Weak convergence and optimal scaling of random walk Metropolis algorithms","volume":"7","author":"Roberts","year":"1997","journal-title":"The Annals of Applied Probability"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0205","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/currents.RRN1148","article-title":"Seroprevalence following the second wave of pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza","author":"Ross","year":"2010","journal-title":"PLoS Current Influenza"},{"issue":"34","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0210","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"183","DOI":"10.3310\/hta14340-03","article-title":"The impact of communications about swine flu (influenza A H1N1v) on public responses to the outbreak: results from 36 national telephone surveys in the UK","volume":"14","author":"Rubin","year":"2010","journal-title":"Health Technology Assessment"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0215","first-page":"59","article-title":"and collaborative groups for influenza surveillance, The Italian network for surveillance of influenza 1999\u20132000","volume":"41","author":"Salmaso","year":"2000","journal-title":"Journal of Preventive Medicine and Hygiene"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0220","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Surveillance group for New Influenza A\/H1N1 Virus Investigation in Italy, 2009. Virological surveillance of human cases of influenza A\/H1N1v virus in Italy: preliminary results. Eurosurveillance 14 (24), 1\u20135.","DOI":"10.2807\/ese.14.24.19247-en"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0225","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"583","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-9868.00353","article-title":"Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit","volume":"64","author":"Spiegelhalter","year":"2002","journal-title":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0230","first-page":"255","article-title":"Seroepidemiology of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus infections in Pune, India","volume":"10","author":"Tandale","year":"2010","journal-title":"MC Infectious Diseases"},{"issue":"December (4)","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0235","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1701","DOI":"10.1214\/aos\/1176325750","article-title":"Markov chains for exploring posterior distributions","volume":"22","author":"Tierney","year":"1994","journal-title":"The Annals of Statistics"},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0240","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"131","DOI":"10.1503\/cmaj.091807","article-title":"Estimated epidemiologic parameters and morbidity associated with pandemic H1N1 influenza","volume":"182","author":"Tuite","year":"2010","journal-title":"Canadian Medical Association Journal"},{"issue":"1609","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0245","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"599","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2006.3754","article-title":"How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers","volume":"274","author":"Wallinga","year":"2007","journal-title":"Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0250","article-title":"Markov chain monte carlo and gibbs sampling","author":"Walsh","year":"2004","journal-title":"Lecture Notes for EEB 581"},{"issue":"10","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0255","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1184","DOI":"10.1086\/656740","article-title":"The infection attack rate and severity of 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza in Hong Kong","volume":"51","author":"Wu","year":"2010","journal-title":"Clinical Infectious Diseases"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0260","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0017919","article-title":"The seroprevalence of pandemic influenza H1N1 (2009) virus in China","volume":"6","author":"Xu","year":"2011","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0265","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"390","DOI":"10.1093\/biostatistics\/kxn045","article-title":"A bayesian model for evaluating influenza antiviral efficacy in household studies with asymptomatic infections","volume":"10","author":"Yang","year":"2009","journal-title":"Biostat"},{"issue":"5953","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001_bib0270","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"729","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1177373","article-title":"The transmissibility and control of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus","volume":"326","author":"Yang","year":"2009","journal-title":"Science"}],"container-title":["Epidemics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S1755436511000557?httpAccept=text\/xml","content-type":"text\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S1755436511000557?httpAccept=text\/plain","content-type":"text\/plain","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2019,6,20]],"date-time":"2019-06-20T06:37:08Z","timestamp":1561012628000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/linkinghub.elsevier.com\/retrieve\/pii\/S1755436511000557"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2012,3]]},"references-count":54,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2012,3]]}},"alternative-id":["S1755436511000557"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.11.001","relation":{},"ISSN":["1755-4365"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1755-4365","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2012,3]]}}}