{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,22]],"date-time":"2026-06-22T19:30:42Z","timestamp":1782156642136,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":57,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,3,1]],"date-time":"2016-03-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1456790400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/tdm\/userlicense\/1.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2015,10,13]],"date-time":"2015-10-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1444694400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["clinicalkey.jp","clinicalkey.com","clinicalkey.es","clinicalkey.com.au","clinicalkey.fr","elsevier.com","sciencedirect.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Epidemics"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,3]]},"DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,10,23]],"date-time":"2015-10-23T19:36:45Z","timestamp":1445629005000},"page":"54-61","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/elsevier_cm_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":31,"special_numbering":"C","title":["Tuberculosis in Cape Town: An age-structured transmission model"],"prefix":"10.1016","volume":"14","author":[{"given":"Nello","family":"Blaser","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Cindy","family":"Zahnd","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sabine","family":"Hermans","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Luisa","family":"Salazar-Vizcaya","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Janne","family":"Estill","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Carl","family":"Morrow","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Matthias","family":"Egger","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Olivia","family":"Keiser","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Robin","family":"Wood","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","reference":[{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"784","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/cir951","article-title":"Risk of progression to active tuberculosis following reinfection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis","volume":"54","author":"Andrews","year":"2012","journal-title":"Clin. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"209","DOI":"10.3934\/mbe.2009.6.209","article-title":"Mathematical modelling of tuberculosis epidemics","volume":"6","author":"Aparicio","year":"2009","journal-title":"Math. Biosci. Eng."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0015","article-title":"ASSA AIDS and demographic model","year":"2011","journal-title":"Actuar. Soc. S. Afr."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"557","DOI":"10.1007\/s00285-008-0177-z","article-title":"Modeling the joint epidemics of TB and HIV in a South African township","volume":"57","author":"Bacaer","year":"2008","journal-title":"J. Math. Biol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20130613","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2013.0613","article-title":"Age-dependent partnering and the HIV transmission chain: a microsimulation analysis","volume":"10","author":"Bershteyn","year":"2013","journal-title":"J. R. Soc. Interface R. Soc."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1745","DOI":"10.1007\/s11538-009-9423-9","article-title":"Modeling HIV\/AIDS and tuberculosis coinfection","volume":"71","author":"Bhunu","year":"2009","journal-title":"Bull. Math. Biol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v064.i10","article-title":"gems: An R Package for Simulating from Disease Progression Models","volume":"64","author":"Blaser","year":"2015","journal-title":"J. Stat. Softw."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0040","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"815","DOI":"10.1038\/nm0895-815","article-title":"The intrinsic transmission dynamics of tuberculosis epidemics","volume":"1","author":"Blower","year":"1995","journal-title":"Nat. Med."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0045","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S57","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jit111","article-title":"Transmission of drug resistant HIV and its potential impact on mortality and treatment outcomes in resource-limited settings","volume":"207","author":"Cambiano","year":"2013","journal-title":"J. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0050","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"629","DOI":"10.1007\/s002850050069","article-title":"To treat or not to treat: the case of tuberculosis","volume":"35","author":"Castillo-Chavez","year":"1997","journal-title":"J. Math. Biol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0055","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1009","DOI":"10.1001\/archinte.163.9.1009","article-title":"The growing burden of tuberculosis: global trends and interactions with the HIV epidemic","volume":"163","author":"Corbett","year":"2003","journal-title":"Arch. Intern. Med."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0060","first-page":"457","article-title":"Will DOTS do it? A reappraisal of tuberculosis control in countries with high rates of HIV infection","volume":"3","author":"De Cock","year":"1999","journal-title":"Int. J. Tuberc. Lung Dis. Off. J. Int. Union Tuberc. Lung Dis."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0065","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1189","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1308.051327","article-title":"High Prevalence of Tuberculosis in Previously Treated Patients, Cape Town","volume":"13","author":"Den Boon","year":"2007","journal-title":"S. Afr. Emerg. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0070","series-title":"R. of S.A. 2009","year":"2009"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0075","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e453","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(14)70245-1","article-title":"Burden of childhood tuberculosis in 22 high-burden countries: a mathematical modelling study","volume":"2","author":"Dodd","year":"2014","journal-title":"Lancet Glob. Health"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0080","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e75466","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0075466","article-title":"Predicting the long-term impact of antiretroviral therapy scale-up on population incidence of tuberculosis","volume":"8","author":"Dodd","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0085","article-title":"A half century's progress against tuberculosis in New York City 1900\u22121950","author":"Drolet","year":"1952","journal-title":"N. Y. Tuberc. Health Assoc."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0090","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1886","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(98)03199-7","article-title":"Prospects for worldwide tuberculosis control under the WHO DOTS strategy: directly observed short-course therapy","volume":"352","author":"Dye","year":"1998","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0095","first-page":"28","article-title":"Controlled chemoprophylaxis trials in tuberculosis: a general review","volume":"26","author":"Ferebee","year":"1970","journal-title":"Bibl. Tuberc."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0100","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e34156","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0034156","article-title":"Tuberculosis incidence rates during 8 years of follow-up of an antiretroviral treatment cohort in South Africa: comparison with rates in the community","volume":"7","author":"Gupta","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0105","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20240","DOI":"10.7448\/IAS.18.1.20240","article-title":"Temporal trends in TB notification rates during ART scale-up in Cape Town: an ecological analysis","volume":"18","author":"Hermans","year":"2015","journal-title":"J. Int. AIDS Soc. 25"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0110","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0135179","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0135179","article-title":"A century of tuberculosis epidemiology in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere: the differential impact of control interventions","volume":"10","author":"Hermans","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0115","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e34411","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0034411","article-title":"A metapopulation model of tuberculosis transmission with a case study from high to low burden areas","volume":"7","author":"Hickson","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0120","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5325","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1317660111","article-title":"Ability of preventive therapy to cure latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in HIV-infected individuals in high-burden settings","volume":"111","author":"Houben","year":"2014","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0125","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1001418","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001418","article-title":"International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS Southern Africa Collaboration. Life expectancies of South African adults starting antiretroviral treatment: collaborative analysis of cohort studies","volume":"10","author":"Johnson","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS Med."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0130","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1246","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwr251","article-title":"Social mixing patterns within a South African township community: implications for respiratory disease transmission and control","volume":"174","author":"Johnstone-Robertson","year":"2011","journal-title":"Am. J. Epidemiol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0135","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"487","DOI":"10.1097\/QAI.0000000000000201","article-title":"Impact of ART on TB case fatality stratified by CD4 count for HIV-positive TB patients in Cape Town. South Africa (2009-2011)","volume":"66","author":"Kaplan","year":"2014","journal-title":"J. Acquir. Immune Defic. Syndr. 1999"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0140","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1040","DOI":"10.1086\/501018","article-title":"Impact of HIV infection on the epidemiology of tuberculosis in a peri-urban community in South Africa: the need for age-specific interventions","volume":"42","author":"Lawn","year":"2006","journal-title":"Clin. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0150","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1676","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/ciu186","article-title":"The temporal dynamics of relapse and reinfection tuberculosis after successful treatment: a retrospective cohort study","volume":"58","author":"Marx","year":"2014","journal-title":"Clin. Infect. Dis. Off. Publ. Infect. Dis. Soc. Am."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0160","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1510","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2011.0160","article-title":"Modelling the performance of isoniazid preventive therapy for reducing tuberculosis in HIV endemic settings: the effects of network structure","volume":"8","author":"Mills","year":"2011","journal-title":"J. R Soc. Interface"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0165","first-page":"6","article-title":"Tuberculosis in developing countries: burden, intervention and cost","volume":"65","author":"Murray","year":"1990","journal-title":"Bull. Int. Union Tuberc. Lung Dis."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0175","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"77","DOI":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2012.02.003","article-title":"Epidemiological models of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex infections","volume":"236","author":"Ozcaglar","year":"2012","journal-title":"Math. Biosci."},{"issue":"28 Suppl","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0180","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S25","DOI":"10.1097\/QAD.0000000000000085","article-title":"The potential effects of changing HIV treatment policy on tuberculosis outcomes in South Africa: results from three tuberculosis-HIV transmission models","volume":"1","author":"Pretorius","year":"2014","journal-title":"AIDS Lond. Engl."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0185","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"196","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tpb.2006.10.004","article-title":"Drug resistance in tuberculosis\u2014a reinfection model","volume":"71","author":"Rodrigues","year":"2007","journal-title":"Theor. Popul. Biol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0190","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"815","DOI":"10.3934\/mbe.2009.6.815","article-title":"Modeling TB and HIV co-infections","volume":"6","author":"Roeger","year":"2009","journal-title":"Math. Biosci. Eng."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0195","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"400","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/23.2.400","article-title":"A mathematical model for the prediction of the impact of HIV infection on tuberculosis","volume":"23","author":"Schulzer","year":"1994","journal-title":"Int. J. Epidemiol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0200","first-page":"2391","article-title":"Mortality associated with HIV infection in rural Rakai district","volume":"14","author":"Sewankambo","year":"2000","journal-title":"Uganda AIDS"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0205","first-page":"1","article-title":"Tuberculosis in children","volume":"31","author":"Smith","year":"2001","journal-title":"Curr. Probl. Pediatr."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0210","unstructured":"Statistics South Africa, 2014a. Mortality and causes of death in South Africa, 2012: Findings from death notification."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0215","unstructured":"Statistics South Africa [WWW Document], 2014b \u3008URL http:\/\/beta2.statssa.gov.za\/\u3009 (accessed 10.23.14)."},{"issue":"Suppl 1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0220","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"i7","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyq016","article-title":"Spectrum: a model platform for linking maternal and child survival interventions with AIDS, family planning and demographic projections","volume":"39","author":"Stover","year":"2010","journal-title":"Int. J. Epidemiol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0225","first-page":"27","article-title":"The impact of HIV infection on the global epidemiology of tuberculosis","volume":"66","author":"Styblo","year":"1991","journal-title":"Bull. Int. Union Tuberc. Lung Dis."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0230","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e95372","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0095372","article-title":"Incidence of TB and HIV in prospectively followed household contacts of TB index patients in South Africa","volume":"9","author":"Van Schalkwyk","year":"2014","journal-title":"PloS One"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0235","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"327","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/28.2.327","article-title":"Interpreting the decline in tuberculosis: the role of secular trends in effective contact","volume":"28","author":"Vynnycky","year":"1999","journal-title":"Int. J. Epidemiol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0240","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"183","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268897007917","article-title":"The natural history of tuberculosis: the implications of age-dependent risks of disease and the role of reinfection","volume":"119","author":"Vynnycky","year":"1997","journal-title":"Epidemiol. Infect."},{"issue":"Suppl 1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0245","first-page":"i31","article-title":"Duration from seroconversion to eligibility for antiretroviral therapy and from ART eligibility to death in adult HIV-infected patients from low and middle-income countries: collaborative analysis of prospective studies","volume":"84","author":"Wandel","year":"2008","journal-title":"Sex. Transm. Infect."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0250","unstructured":"WHO, 2014a. Tuberculosis country profile South Africa [WWW Document]. WHO \u3008http:\/\/www.who.int\/tb\/country\/data\/profiles\/en\/\u3009 (accessed 10.8.14)."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0255","series-title":"Global tuberculosis report 2014","year":"2014"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0260","series-title":"Global tuberculosis report 2013","year":"2013"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0265","series-title":"Interim policy on collaborative TB\/HIV activities","year":"2004"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0270","unstructured":"WHO, 1996. WHO fact sheet on tuberculosis (No. 104)."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0280","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"37","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-10-37","article-title":"Evidence for waning of latency in a cohort study of tuberculosis","volume":"10","author":"Wiker","year":"2010","journal-title":"BMC Infect. Dis."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0285","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"19485","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1005660107","article-title":"Antiretroviral therapy for tuberculosis control in nine African countries","volume":"107","author":"Williams","year":"2010","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0290","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e25098","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0025098","article-title":"Burden of new and recurrent tuberculosis in a major South African city stratified by age and HIV-status","volume":"6","author":"Wood","year":"2011","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0295","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"111","DOI":"10.7196\/SAMJ.4587","article-title":"Tuberculosis control has failed in South Africa\u2014time to reappraise strategy","volume":"101","author":"Wood","year":"2011","journal-title":"Afr. Med. J."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0300","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"87","DOI":"10.1164\/rccm.200606-759OC","article-title":"Undiagnosed tuberculosis in a community with high HIV prevalence: implications for tuberculosis control","volume":"175","author":"Wood","year":"2007","journal-title":"Am. J. Respir. Crit. Care Med."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001_bib0305","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e39246","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0039246","article-title":"Indoor social networks in a South African township: potential contribution of location to tuberculosis transmission","volume":"7","author":"Wood","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS One"}],"container-title":["Epidemics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S1755436515000869?httpAccept=text\/xml","content-type":"text\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S1755436515000869?httpAccept=text\/plain","content-type":"text\/plain","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2019,8,31]],"date-time":"2019-08-31T17:50:37Z","timestamp":1567273837000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/linkinghub.elsevier.com\/retrieve\/pii\/S1755436515000869"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2016,3]]},"references-count":57,"alternative-id":["S1755436515000869"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001","relation":{},"ISSN":["1755-4365"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1755-4365","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2016,3]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Elsevier","name":"publisher","label":"This article is maintained by"},{"value":"Tuberculosis in Cape Town: An age-structured transmission model","name":"articletitle","label":"Article Title"},{"value":"Epidemics","name":"journaltitle","label":"Journal Title"},{"value":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.10.001","name":"articlelink","label":"CrossRef DOI link to publisher maintained version"},{"value":"article","name":"content_type","label":"Content Type"},{"value":"Copyright \u00a9 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.","name":"copyright","label":"Copyright"}]}}