{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,27]],"date-time":"2026-05-27T13:18:31Z","timestamp":1779887911066,"version":"3.53.1"},"reference-count":115,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,1]],"date-time":"2021-03-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1614556800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/tdm\/userlicense\/1.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,1]],"date-time":"2021-03-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1614556800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/legal\/tdmrep-license"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,12,16]],"date-time":"2020-12-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1608076800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000266","name":"Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000266","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["clinicalkey.com","clinicalkey.com.au","clinicalkey.es","clinicalkey.fr","clinicalkey.jp","elsevier.com","sciencedirect.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Epidemics"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,3]]},"DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,12,18]],"date-time":"2020-12-18T03:12:43Z","timestamp":1608261163000},"page":"100432","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/elsevier_cm_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"special_numbering":"C","title":["Accounting for cross-immunity can improve forecast accuracy during influenza epidemics"],"prefix":"10.1016","volume":"34","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5133-667X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rahil","family":"Sachak-Patwa","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1771-5910","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Helen M.","family":"Byrne","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8545-5212","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Robin N.","family":"Thompson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","reference":[{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b1","series-title":"Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control","author":"Anderson","year":"1991"},{"issue":"7","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"825","DOI":"10.1007\/s002850050079","article-title":"The dynamics of cocirculating influenza strains conferring partial cross-immunity","volume":"35","author":"Andreasen","year":"1997","journal-title":"J. Math. Biol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"77","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2018.10.001","article-title":"The impact of influenza vaccination on infection, hospitalisation and mortality in the Netherlands between 2003 and 2015","volume":"26","author":"Backer","year":"2019","journal-title":"Epidemics"},{"issue":"10","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001527","article-title":"Assessing optimal target populations for influenza vaccination programmes: an evidence synthesis and modelling study","volume":"10","author":"Baguelin","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS Med."},{"issue":"10","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0013211","article-title":"Risk factors and immunity in a nationally representative population following the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic","volume":"5","author":"Bandaranayake","year":"2010","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"5","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0002185","article-title":"Real time bayesian estimation of the epidemic potential of emerging infectious diseases","volume":"3","author":"Bettencourt","year":"2008","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-016-1669-x","article-title":"Results from the centers for disease control and prevention\u2019s predict the 2013\u20132014 Influenza Season Challenge","volume":"16","author":"Biggerstaff","year":"2016","journal-title":"BMC Infect. Dis."},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-14-480","article-title":"Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature","volume":"14","author":"Biggerstaff","year":"2014","journal-title":"BMC Infect. Dis."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"26","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2018.02.003","article-title":"Results from the second year of a collaborative effort to forecast influenza seasons in the United States","volume":"24","author":"Biggerstaff","year":"2018","journal-title":"Epidemics"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"D49","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2008.07.039","article-title":"The biology of influenza viruses","volume":"26","author":"Bouvier","year":"2008","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b11","series-title":"How CDC uses flu forecasting","author":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)","year":"2020"},{"issue":"14","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1383","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2010.404","article-title":"2009 influenza A(H1N1) seroconversion rates and risk factors among distinct adult cohorts in Singapore","volume":"303","author":"Chen","year":"2010","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"issue":"8","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1035","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268807009284","article-title":"Modelling control measures to reduce the impact of pandemic influenza among schoolchildren","volume":"136","author":"Chen","year":"2008","journal-title":"Epidemiol. Infect."},{"issue":"12","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"155","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2006.0161","article-title":"Comparative estimation of the reproduction number for pandemic influenza from daily case notification data","volume":"4","author":"Chowell","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. R. Soc. Interface"},{"issue":"12","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0008164","article-title":"Adaptive vaccination strategies to mitigate pandemic influenza: Mexico as a case study","volume":"4","author":"Chowell","year":"2009","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"5","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"803","DOI":"10.1016\/j.meegid.2011.02.021","article-title":"Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus revisited: an evolutionary retrospective","volume":"11","author":"Christman","year":"2011","journal-title":"Infect. Genet. Evol."},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"261","DOI":"10.3934\/mbe.2009.6.261","article-title":"The estimation of the effective reproductive number from disease outbreak data","volume":"6","author":"Cintr\u00f3n-Arias","year":"2009","journal-title":"Math. Biosci. Eng."},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"411","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/129.4.411","article-title":"Induction of partial immunity to influenza by a neuraminidase-specific vaccine","volume":"129","author":"Couch","year":"1974","journal-title":"J. Infect. Dis."},{"issue":"7","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e375","DOI":"10.1016\/S2468-2667(20)30133-X","article-title":"Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study","volume":"5","author":"Davies","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet Public Health"},{"issue":"dec10 1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"b5213","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.b5213","article-title":"Mortality from pandemic A\/H1N1 2009 influenza in England: public health surveillance study","volume":"339","author":"Donaldson","year":"2009","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"issue":"413","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1126\/scitranslmed.aan5325","article-title":"Evolution-informed forecasting of seasonal influenza A (H3N2)","volume":"9","author":"Du","year":"2017","journal-title":"Sci. Transl. Med."},{"issue":"5","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0040174","article-title":"Vaccinating to protect a vulnerable subpopulation","volume":"4","author":"Dushoff","year":"2007","journal-title":"PLoS Med."},{"issue":"3","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"173","DOI":"10.7326\/0003-4819-156-3-201202070-00005","article-title":"Effects of school closure on incidence of pandemic influenza in Alberta, Canada","volume":"156","author":"Earn","year":"2012","journal-title":"Ann. Intern. Med."},{"issue":"17","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3335","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2010.08.067","article-title":"Impact of prior seasonal influenza vaccination and infection on pandemic A (H1N1) influenza virus replication in ferrets","volume":"29","author":"Ellebedy","year":"2011","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"issue":"12","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1998","DOI":"10.1128\/CVI.00247-10","article-title":"Contemporary seasonal influenza A (H1N1) virus infection primes for a more robust response to split inactivated pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus vaccination in ferrets","volume":"17","author":"Ellebedy","year":"2010","journal-title":"Clin. Vaccine Immunol."},{"issue":"12","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5484","DOI":"10.4049\/jimmunol.150.12.5484","article-title":"Beta 2-microglobulin-deficient mice can be protected against influenza A infection by vaccination with vaccinia-influenza recombinants expressing hemagglutinin and neuraminidase.","volume":"150","author":"Epstein","year":"1993","journal-title":"J. Immunol."},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2229","DOI":"10.1128\/JVI.05540-11","article-title":"Seasonal H1N1 influenza virus infection induces cross-protective pandemic H1N1 virus immunity through a CD8-independent, B cell-dependent mechanism","volume":"86","author":"Fang","year":"2011","journal-title":"J. Virol."},{"issue":"7101","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"448","DOI":"10.1038\/nature04795","article-title":"Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic","volume":"442","author":"Ferguson","year":"2006","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"142","DOI":"10.1111\/irv.12216","article-title":"Systematic review of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus shedding: duration is affected by severity, but not age","volume":"8","author":"Fielding","year":"2013","journal-title":"Influenza Other Respir. Viruses"},{"issue":"10","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1005749","article-title":"Seasonality in risk of pandemic influenza emergence","volume":"13","author":"Fox","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS Comput. Biol."},{"issue":"5934","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1557","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1176062","article-title":"Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): early findings","volume":"324","author":"Fraser","year":"2009","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"88","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2014.09.001","article-title":"Eight challenges in phylodynamic inference","volume":"10","author":"Frost","year":"2015","journal-title":"Epidemics"},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1006785","article-title":"Assessing the performance of real-time epidemic forecasts: A case study of Ebola in the Western Area region of Sierra Leone, 2014\u201315","volume":"15","author":"Funk","year":"2019","journal-title":"PLoS Comput. Biol."},{"issue":"9","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1355","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1109.041344","article-title":"Potential impact of antiviral drug use during influenza pandemic","volume":"11","author":"Gani","year":"2005","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Diseases"},{"issue":"3","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"557","DOI":"10.2307\/2528318","article-title":"The mathematical analysis of an epidemic with two kinds of susceptibles","volume":"24","author":"Gart","year":"1968","journal-title":"Biometrics"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"147","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2458-14-147","article-title":"Measuring underreporting and under-ascertainment in infectious disease datasets: a comparison of methods","volume":"14","author":"Gibbons","year":"2014","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"issue":"9","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0012777","article-title":"Evaluation of targeted influenza vaccination strategies via population modeling","volume":"5","author":"Glasser","year":"2010","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"6313","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"722","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aag1322","article-title":"Potent protection against H5N1 and H7N9 influenza via childhood hemagglutinin imprinting","volume":"354","author":"Gostic","year":"2016","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"12","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1008109","article-title":"Childhood immune imprinting to influenza A shapes birth year-specific risk during seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 epidemics","volume":"15","author":"Gostic","year":"2019","journal-title":"PLoS Pathog."},{"issue":"9","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1024","DOI":"10.1016\/j.micinf.2008.07.002","article-title":"Heterosubtypic immunity to influenza A virus: where do we stand?","volume":"10","author":"Grebe","year":"2008","journal-title":"Microb. Infect."},{"issue":"5656","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"327","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1090727","article-title":"Unifying the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of pathogens","volume":"303","author":"Grenfell","year":"2004","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"3","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"372","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268806007084","article-title":"Real-time epidemic forecasting for pandemic influenza","volume":"135","author":"Hall","year":"2007","journal-title":"Epidemiol. Infect."},{"issue":"20","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1945","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa0906453","article-title":"Cross-reactive antibody responses to the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus","volume":"361","author":"Hancock","year":"2009","journal-title":"N. Engl. J. Med."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"38","DOI":"10.1016\/j.coi.2014.03.008","article-title":"Immunosenescence: influenza vaccination and the elderly","volume":"29","author":"Haq","year":"2014","journal-title":"Curr. Opin. Immunol."},{"issue":"55","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"115","DOI":"10.3310\/hta14550-03","article-title":"Assessment of baseline age-specific antibody prevalence and incidence of infection to novel influenza A\/H1N1 2009","volume":"14","author":"Hardelid","year":"2010","journal-title":"Health Technol. Assess."},{"issue":"166","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20200230","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2020.0230","article-title":"A theoretical framework for transitioning from patient-level to population-scale epidemiological dynamics: influenza A as a case study","volume":"17","author":"Hart","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. R. Soc. Interface"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"97","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/57.1.97","article-title":"Monte Carlo sampling methods using Markov chains and their applications","volume":"57","author":"Hastings","year":"1970","journal-title":"Biometrika"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b48","article-title":"Global spatio-temporal patterns of influenza in the post-pandemic era","volume":"5","author":"He","year":"2015","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"issue":"10","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1007096","article-title":"Seasonal influenza: Modelling approaches to capture immunity propagation","volume":"15","author":"Hill","year":"2019","journal-title":"PLoS Comput. Biol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.3389\/fimmu.2019.01071","article-title":"Impact of obesity on influenza A virus pathogenesis, immune response, and evolution","volume":"10","author":"Honce","year":"2019","journal-title":"Front. Immunol."},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1038\/srep01698","article-title":"Immunity toward H1N1 influenza hemagglutinin of historical and contemporary strains suggests protection and vaccine failure","volume":"3","author":"Huang","year":"2013","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"issue":"25","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5371","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2006.04.032","article-title":"Immune response to influenza vaccination in community-dwelling Chinese elderly persons","volume":"24","author":"Hui","year":"2006","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105","DOI":"10.1353\/bhm.2002.0022","article-title":"Updating the accounts: global mortality of the 1918\u20131920 \u201cSpanish\u201d influenza pandemic","volume":"76","author":"Johnson","year":"2002","journal-title":"Bull. Hist. Med."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/currents.RRN1139","article-title":"Epidemiological characteristics and low case fatality rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in Japan","volume":"1","author":"Kamigaki","year":"2009","journal-title":"PLoS Curr."},{"issue":"3","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"121","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1750-2659.2010.00132.x","article-title":"Prior infection with classical swine H1N1 influenza viruses is associated with protective immunity to the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus","volume":"4","author":"Kash","year":"2010","journal-title":"Influenza Other Respir. Viruses"},{"issue":"8","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0021828","article-title":"The age-specific cumulative incidence of infection with pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 was similar in various countries prior to vaccination","volume":"6","author":"Kelly","year":"2011","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b57","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"9","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1201.051254","article-title":"Influenza pandemics of the 20th century","volume":"12","author":"Kilbourne","year":"2006","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Diseases"},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b58","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"174","DOI":"10.1089\/vim.2017.0141","article-title":"Influenza virus: dealing with a drifting and shifting pathogen","volume":"31","author":"Kim","year":"2018","journal-title":"Viral Immunol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b59","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"49","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2018.03.003","article-title":"Contagion! The BBC Four Pandemic\u2013The model behind the documentary","volume":"24","author":"Klepac","year":"2018","journal-title":"Epidemics"},{"issue":"5807","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b60","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1898","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1132745","article-title":"Epochal evolution shapes the phylodynamics of interpandemic influenza a (H3N2) in humans","volume":"314","author":"Koelle","year":"2006","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"6","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b61","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"383","DOI":"10.1038\/s41577-019-0143-6","article-title":"The human antibody response to influenza a virus infection and vaccination","volume":"19","author":"Krammer","year":"2019","journal-title":"Nat. Rev. Immunol."},{"issue":"1\u20132","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b62","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"19","DOI":"10.1016\/j.virusres.2011.09.022","article-title":"Immune responses to influenza virus infection","volume":"162","author":"Kreijtz","year":"2011","journal-title":"Virus Res."},{"issue":"8","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b63","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"985","DOI":"10.1586\/erv.12.61","article-title":"Understanding the immune response to seasonal influenza vaccination in older adults: a systems biology approach","volume":"11","author":"Lambert","year":"2012","journal-title":"Expert Rev. Vaccines"},{"issue":"7","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b64","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1011","DOI":"10.1086\/656188","article-title":"Multiple infections with seasonal influenza a virus induce cross-protective immunity against A(H1N1) pandemic influenza virus in a ferret model","volume":"202","author":"Laurie","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Infect. Dis."},{"issue":"7","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b65","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"623","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwh092","article-title":"Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents","volume":"159","author":"Longini\u00a0Jr.","year":"2004","journal-title":"Am. J. Epidemiol."},{"issue":"5737","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b66","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1083","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1115717","article-title":"Containing pandemic influenza at the source","volume":"309","author":"Longini\u00a0Jr.","year":"2005","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"02","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b67","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"185","DOI":"10.1142\/S0218339006001787","article-title":"An epidemic model structured by host immunity","volume":"14","author":"Martcheva","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Biol. Syst."},{"issue":"5948","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b68","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1705","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1175570","article-title":"Optimizing influenza vaccine distribution","volume":"325","author":"Medlock","year":"2009","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"3","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b69","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"400","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2005.10.004","article-title":"Predicting epidemics on directed contact networks","volume":"240","author":"Meyers","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Theoret. Biol."},{"issue":"9720","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b70","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1100","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(09)62126-7","article-title":"Incidence of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 infection in England: a cross-sectional serological study","volume":"375","author":"Miller","year":"2010","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b71","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4","DOI":"10.1051\/mmnp\/20149202","article-title":"Epidemic spread in networks: Existing methods and current challenges","volume":"9","author":"Miller","year":"2014","journal-title":"Math. Model. Nat. Phenom."},{"issue":"7019","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b72","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"904","DOI":"10.1038\/nature03063","article-title":"Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza","volume":"432","author":"Mills","year":"2004","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b73","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1155\/2013\/637064","article-title":"Age-dependent estimates of the epidemiological impact of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009) in Japan","volume":"2013","author":"Mizumoto","year":"2013","journal-title":"Comput. Math. Methods Med."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b74","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ics.2004.02.049","article-title":"Global burden of influenza: what we know and what we need to know","volume":"1263","author":"Monto","year":"2004","journal-title":"Int. Congr. Ser."},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b75","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"138","DOI":"10.1006\/viro.1998.9534","article-title":"Treatment of influenza virus-infected SCID mice with nonneutralizing antibodies specific for the transmembrane proteins matrix 2 and neuraminidase reduces the pulmonary virus titer but fails to clear the infection","volume":"254","author":"Mozdzanowska","year":"1999","journal-title":"Virology"},{"issue":"25","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b76","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1329","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM197206222862502","article-title":"Association of serum anti-neuraminidase antibody with resistance to influenza in man","volume":"286","author":"Murphy","year":"1972","journal-title":"N. Engl. J. Med."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b77","series-title":"Isolation\/detection of influenza virus in Japan, 2017\/18 season","author":"National Institute of Infectious Diseases","year":"2020"},{"issue":"Suppl. 1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b78","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S14","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jiz040","article-title":"Predicting the next influenza pandemics","volume":"219","author":"Neumann","year":"2019","journal-title":"J. Infect. Dis."},{"issue":"17","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b79","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"9331","DOI":"10.1128\/JVI.00751-07","article-title":"Heterosubtypic immunity to influenza a virus infection requires a properly diversified antibody repertoire","volume":"81","author":"Nguyen","year":"2007","journal-title":"J. Virol."},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b80","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"15","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-925X-10-15","article-title":"Real-time forecasting of an epidemic using a discrete time stochastic model: a case study of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009)","volume":"10","author":"Nishiura","year":"2011","journal-title":"Biomed. Eng. Online"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b81","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"468","DOI":"10.1007\/s10156-010-0200-3","article-title":"Real-time estimation and prediction for pandemic A\/H1N1 (2009) in Japan","volume":"17","author":"Ohkusa","year":"2011","journal-title":"J. Infect. Chemother."},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b82","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"98","DOI":"10.7883\/yoken.JJID.2009.98","article-title":"Simulation model of pandemic influenza in the whole of Japan","volume":"62","author":"Ohkusa","year":"2009","journal-title":"Jpn. J. Infect. Dis."},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b83","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1186\/1742-4682-8-2","article-title":"Theoretical basis to measure the impact of short-lasting control of an infectious disease on the epidemic peak","volume":"8","author":"Omori","year":"2011","journal-title":"Theor. Biol. Med. Model."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b84","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.3389\/fimmu.2019.01677","article-title":"Protective antibodies against influenza proteins","volume":"10","author":"Padilla-Quirarte","year":"2019","journal-title":"Front. Immunol."},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b85","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268816001989","article-title":"Rapid mortality transition of Pacific Islands in the 19th century","volume":"145","author":"Penman","year":"2016","journal-title":"Epidemiol. Infect."},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b86","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"47","DOI":"10.1038\/nrmicro.2017.118","article-title":"The evolution of seasonal influenza viruses","volume":"16","author":"Petrova","year":"2017","journal-title":"Nat. Rev. Microbiol."},{"issue":"5","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b87","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"676","DOI":"10.1016\/j.meegid.2008.06.001","article-title":"Variable epidemic histories of hepatitis C virus genotype 2 infection in West Africa and Cameroon","volume":"8","author":"Pouillot","year":"2008","journal-title":"Infect. Genet. Evol."},{"issue":"5","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b88","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"215","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1750-2659.2009.00100.x","article-title":"Initial human transmission dynamics of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in North America","volume":"3","author":"Pourbohloul","year":"2009","journal-title":"Influenza Other Respir. Viruses"},{"issue":"12","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b89","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0186739","article-title":"Impact of increased influenza vaccination in 2\u20133-year-old children on disease burden within the general population: A Bayesian model-based approach","volume":"12","author":"Rajaram","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b90","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"162","DOI":"10.1186\/1741-7015-10-162","article-title":"The age distribution of mortality due to influenza: pandemic and peri-pandemic","volume":"10","author":"Reichert","year":"2012","journal-title":"BMC Med."},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b91","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"155","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2008.01.014","article-title":"Backward bifurcations and multiple equilibria in epidemic models with structured immunity","volume":"252","author":"Reluga","year":"2008","journal-title":"J. Theoret. Biol."},{"issue":"8","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b92","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"778","DOI":"10.1128\/jvi.2.8.778-786.1968","article-title":"Protective effects of specific immunity to viral neuraminidase on influenza virus infection of mice","volume":"2","author":"Schulman","year":"1968","journal-title":"J. Virol."},{"issue":"3","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b93","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1642","DOI":"10.4049\/jimmunol.1000091","article-title":"Immunity to pre-1950 H1N1 influenza viruses confers cross-protection against the pandemic swine-origin 2009 A (H1N1) influenza virus","volume":"185","author":"Skountzou","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Immunol."},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b94","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"583","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-9868.00353","article-title":"Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit","volume":"64","author":"Spiegelhalter","year":"2002","journal-title":"J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Stat. Methodol."},{"issue":"12","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b95","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2001","DOI":"10.1345\/aph.1M557","article-title":"Seasonal, avian, and novel H1N1 influenza: Prevention and treatment modalities","volume":"43","author":"Sym","year":"2009","journal-title":"Ann. Pharmacother."},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b96","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"15","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1209.05-0979","article-title":"1918 influenza: the mother of all pandemics","volume":"12","author":"Taubenberger","year":"2006","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Diseases"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b97","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-020-01628-4","article-title":"Epidemiological models are important tools for guiding COVID-19 interventions","volume":"18","author":"Thompson","year":"2020","journal-title":"BMC Med."},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b98","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"498","DOI":"10.3390\/jcm9020498","article-title":"Novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China, 2020: Intense surveillance is vital for preventing sustained transmission in new locations","volume":"9","author":"Thompson","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Clin. Med."},{"issue":"1775","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b99","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2019.0038","article-title":"Detection, forecasting and control of infectious disease epidemics: modelling outbreaks in humans, animals and plants","volume":"374","author":"Thompson","year":"2019","journal-title":"Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b100","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1004836","article-title":"Detecting presymptomatic infection is necessary to forecast major epidemics in the earliest stages of infectious disease outbreaks","volume":"12","author":"Thompson","year":"2016","journal-title":"PLoS Comput. Biol."},{"issue":"172","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b101","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2020.0690","article-title":"Will an outbreak exceed available resources for control? Estimating the risk from invading pathogens using practical definitions of a severe epidemic","volume":"17","author":"Thompson","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. R. Soc. Interface"},{"issue":"9","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b102","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/ciy248","article-title":"Effect of confusing symptoms and infectiousness on forecasting and control of Ebola outbreaks","volume":"67","author":"Thompson","year":"2018","journal-title":"Clin. Inf. Dis."},{"issue":"1932","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b103","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2020.1405","article-title":"Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies","volume":"287","author":"Thompson","year":"2020","journal-title":"Proc. R. Soc. B"},{"issue":"1775","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b104","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2018.0274","article-title":"Increased frequency of travel in the presence of cross-immunity may act to decrease the chance of a global pandemic","volume":"374","author":"Thompson","year":"2019","journal-title":"Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b105","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1186\/1741-7015-10-165","article-title":"Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A\/H1N1pdm","volume":"10","author":"Tizzoni","year":"2012","journal-title":"BMC Med."},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b106","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"115","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMp0904572","article-title":"Geographic dependence, surveillance, and origins of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus","volume":"361","author":"Trifonov","year":"2009","journal-title":"N. Engl. J. Med."},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b107","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"131","DOI":"10.1503\/cmaj.091807","article-title":"Estimated epidemiologic parameters and morbidity associated with pandemic H1N1 influenza","volume":"182","author":"Tuite","year":"2009","journal-title":"Can. Med. Assoc. J."},{"issue":"1628","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b108","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2925","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2007.1159","article-title":"Susceptible\u2013infected\u2013recovered epidemics in dynamic contact networks","volume":"274","author":"Volz","year":"2007","journal-title":"Proc. R. Soc. B"},{"issue":"6","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b109","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1002042","article-title":"Effects of heterogeneous and clustered contact patterns on infectious disease dynamics","volume":"7","author":"Volz","year":"2011","journal-title":"PLoS Comput. Biol."},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b110","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"230","DOI":"10.1016\/0042-6822(88)90640-X","article-title":"Protection against lethal influenza with neuraminidase","volume":"164","author":"Webster","year":"1988","journal-title":"Virology"},{"issue":"3","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b111","first-page":"1","article-title":"The SIR model and the foundations of public health","author":"Weiss","year":"2013","journal-title":"Mater. Mat."},{"issue":"11","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b112","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1847","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1511.090685","article-title":"Preexisting immunity to pandemic (H1N1) 2009","volume":"15","author":"Xing","year":"2009","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Diseases"},{"issue":"5976","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b113","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"357","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1186430","article-title":"Structural basis of preexisting immunity to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza virus","volume":"328","author":"Xu","year":"2010","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"9","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b114","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2723","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1415012112","article-title":"Inference of seasonal and pandemic influenza transmission dynamics","volume":"112","author":"Yang","year":"2015","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"issue":"7212","key":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432_b115","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"532","DOI":"10.1038\/nature07231","article-title":"Neutralizing antibodies derived from the B cells of 1918 influenza pandemic survivors","volume":"455","author":"Yu","year":"2008","journal-title":"Nature"}],"container-title":["Epidemics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S1755436520300499?httpAccept=text\/xml","content-type":"text\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S1755436520300499?httpAccept=text\/plain","content-type":"text\/plain","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,29]],"date-time":"2025-10-29T00:39:31Z","timestamp":1761698371000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/linkinghub.elsevier.com\/retrieve\/pii\/S1755436520300499"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,3]]},"references-count":115,"alternative-id":["S1755436520300499"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432","relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1101\/2020.07.19.20157214","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["1755-4365"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1755-4365","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,3]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Elsevier","name":"publisher","label":"This article is maintained by"},{"value":"Accounting for cross-immunity can improve forecast accuracy during influenza epidemics","name":"articletitle","label":"Article Title"},{"value":"Epidemics","name":"journaltitle","label":"Journal Title"},{"value":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100432","name":"articlelink","label":"CrossRef DOI link to publisher maintained version"},{"value":"article","name":"content_type","label":"Content Type"},{"value":"\u00a9 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.","name":"copyright","label":"Copyright"}],"article-number":"100432"}}