{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,27]],"date-time":"2026-10-27T18:22:51Z","timestamp":1793125371193,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":35,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,1]],"date-time":"2025-12-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1764547200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/tdm\/userlicense\/1.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,1]],"date-time":"2025-12-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1764547200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/legal\/tdmrep-license"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,6]],"date-time":"2025-06-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1749168000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100009619","name":"Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["JP23fk0108612"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["JP23fk0108612"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100009619","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100009619","name":"Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["JP23fk0108685"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["JP23fk0108685"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100009619","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003382","name":"Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["JPMJCR24Q3"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["JPMJCR24Q3"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003382","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003478","name":"Government of Japan Ministry of Health Labour and Welfare","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003478","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100009028","name":"Japan Science and Technology Agency Strategic Basic Research ProgramsI Institute of Science and Technology for Society","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["JPMJRS22B4"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["JPMJRS22B4"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100009028","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100002241","name":"Japan Science and Technology Agency","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["JPMJSC20U3"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["JPMJSC20U3"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100002241","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100002241","name":"Japan Science and Technology Agency","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["JPMJSC2105"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["JPMJSC2105"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100002241","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100005683","name":"Kyoto University","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100005683","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001691","name":"Japan Society for the Promotion of Science","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["21H03198"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["21H03198"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001691","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001691","name":"Japan Society for the Promotion of Science","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["22K19670"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["22K19670"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001691","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100014423","name":"Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100014423","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["elsevier.com","sciencedirect.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Infectious Disease Modelling"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,12]]},"DOI":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,6]],"date-time":"2025-06-06T11:20:07Z","timestamp":1749208807000},"page":"1116-1125","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/elsevier_cm_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Estimating undiagnosed HIV infections by age group in Japan: an extended age-dependent back-calculation"],"prefix":"10.1016","volume":"10","author":[{"given":"Seiko","family":"Fujiwara","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hiroshi","family":"Nishiura","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Takuma","family":"Shirasaka","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Akifumi","family":"Imamura","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","reference":[{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"205","DOI":"10.1016\/0025-5564(94)90076-0","article-title":"A transmission model for HIV with application to the Australian epidemic","volume":"119","author":"Becker","year":"1994","journal-title":"Mathematical Biosciences"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"165","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/80.1.165","article-title":"A method for estimating the age-specific relative risk of HIV infection from AIDS incidence data","volume":"80","author":"Becker","year":"1993","journal-title":"Biometrika"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib5","series-title":"Mathematical models in population biology and epidemiology","author":"Brauer","year":"2012"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"757","DOI":"10.1007\/s10985-019-09465-1","article-title":"Extending Bayesian back-calculation to estimate age and time specific HIV incidence","volume":"25","author":"Brizzi","year":"2019","journal-title":"Lifetime Data Analysis"},{"issue":"8519","key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1320","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(86)91444-3","article-title":"Minimum size of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic in the United States","volume":"2","author":"Brookmeyer","year":"1986","journal-title":"Lancet (London, England)"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib8","series-title":"AIDS epidemiology: A quantitative approach","author":"Brookmeyer","year":"1994"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"325","DOI":"10.2307\/2532057","article-title":"Censoring in an epidemic with an application to Hemophilia-associated AIDS","volume":"45","author":"Brookmeyer","year":"1989","journal-title":"Biometrics"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib10","article-title":"Estimated HIV incidence and prevalence in the United States, 2010\u20132016","volume":"24","year":"2019","journal-title":"HIV Surveillance Supplemental Report"},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"141","DOI":"10.1177\/096228020101000205","article-title":"Mathematical biology and medical statistics: Contributions to the understanding of AIDS epidemiology","volume":"10","author":"Donnelly","year":"2001","journal-title":"Statistical Methods in Medical Research"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"47","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2013.12.024","article-title":"Probabilistic differential diagnosis of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) using the time from immigration to illness onset among imported cases","volume":"346","author":"Ejima","year":"2014","journal-title":"Journal of Theoretical Biology"},{"issue":"12","key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1973","DOI":"10.1097\/QAD.0000000000001145","article-title":"Effectiveness and safety of oral HIV preexposure prophylaxis for all populations","volume":"30","author":"Fonner","year":"2016","journal-title":"AIDS"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"M.H. Gail, R. Brookmeyer, Methods for projecting course of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome Epidemic1, J Natl Cancer Inst, Volume 80, Issue 12, 17 August 1988, Pages 900\u2013911. doi: 10.1093\/jnci\/80.12.900.","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/80.12.900"},{"issue":"9657","key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"48","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(08)61697-9","article-title":"Universal voluntary HIV testing with immediate antiretroviral therapy as a strategy for elimination of HIV transmission: A mathematical model","volume":"373","author":"Granich","year":"2009","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"10092","key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"341","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(17)31872-X","article-title":"90-90-90 and ending AIDS: Necessary and feasible","volume":"390","author":"Granich","year":"2017","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"27","key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2587","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1011205","article-title":"Preexposure chemoprophylaxis for HIV prevention in men who have sex with men","volume":"363","author":"Grant","year":"2010","journal-title":"New England Journal of Medicine"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib18","series-title":"AIDS epidemiology: Methodological issues","author":"Jewell","year":"1992"},{"issue":"46","key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib19","first-page":"1576","article-title":"HIV\/AIDS notifications in Korea, 2022","volume":"16","year":"2023","journal-title":"Public Health Weekly Report"},{"issue":"6","key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib20","article-title":"Estimation of the number of HIV infections and time to diagnosis in the Korea","volume":"35","author":"Lee","year":"2020","journal-title":"Journal of J Korean Med Sci"},{"issue":"10","key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3051","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.83.10.3051","article-title":"A model-based approach for estimating the mean incubation period of transfusion-associated acquired immunodeficiency syndrome","volume":"83","author":"Lui","year":"1986","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"issue":"3","key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"395","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.4780070305","article-title":"A model-based approach to characterize the incubation period of paediatric transfusion-associated acquired immunodeficiency syndrome","volume":"7","author":"Lui","year":"1988","journal-title":"Statistics in Medicine"},{"issue":"Suppl 2","key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S67","DOI":"10.1097\/01.aids.0000327438.13291.62","article-title":"Stigma in the HIV\/AIDS epidemic: A review of the literature and recommendations for the way forward","volume":"22","author":"Mahajan","year":"2008","journal-title":"AIDS"},{"issue":"9","key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0257583","article-title":"Racial and ethnic disparities in HIV diagnoses among heterosexually active persons in the United States nationally and by state, 2018","volume":"16","author":"Martin","year":"2021","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"57","DOI":"10.1097\/QAI.0000000000001977","article-title":"Changes in disparities in estimated HIV incidence rates among black, hispanic\/latino, and white men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States, 2010-2015","volume":"81","author":"McCree","year":"2019","journal-title":"Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib26","unstructured":"Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. (n. d). Regarding the notification by physicians and veternarians based on the infectious disease. Retrieved from. https:\/\/www.mhlw.go.jp\/bunya\/kenkou\/kekkaku-kansenshou11\/01-05-07.html."},{"issue":"12","key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e779","DOI":"10.1016\/S2352-3018(23)00227-8","article-title":"Adherence, safety, and choice of the monthly dapivirine vaginal ring or oral emtricitabine plus tenofovir disoproxil fumarate for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis among African adolescent girls and young women: a randomised, open-label, crossover trial","volume":"10","author":"Nair","year":"2023","journal-title":"The lancet. HIV"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.7717\/peerj.6275","article-title":"Estimating the incidence and diagnosed proportion of HIV infections in Japan: A statistical modeling study","volume":"7","author":"Nishiura","year":"2019","journal-title":"PeerJ"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib30","article-title":"HIV incidence before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan","author":"Nishiura","year":"2023","journal-title":"Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"123","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2010.12.017","article-title":"Estimation of the incubation period of influenza A (H1N1-2009) among imported cases: Addressing censoring using outbreak data at the origin of importation","volume":"272","author":"Nishiura","year":"2011","journal-title":"Journal of Theoretical Biology"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"18","DOI":"10.1136\/sextrans-2020-054551","article-title":"Undetectable equals untransmittable (U = U): Awareness and associations with health outcomes among people living with HIV in 25 countries","volume":"97","author":"Okoli","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sex Trnasm Infect"},{"issue":"9210","key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1131","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(00)02061-4","volume":"355","year":"2000","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"12","key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1002\/jia2.26193","article-title":"Treatment-na\u00efve people living with HIV aged 50 years or older in Beijing, China, 2010-2020: Joinpoint regression model analysis of surveillance data","volume":"26","author":"Wang","year":"2023","journal-title":"Journal of the International AIDS Society"},{"issue":"7","key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0020174","article-title":"Appropriate models for the management of infectious diseases","volume":"2","author":"Wearing","year":"2005","journal-title":"PLoS Medicine"},{"issue":"1226","key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"99","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.1989.0075","article-title":"Population projections for AIDS using an actuarial model","volume":"325","author":"Wilkie","year":"1989","journal-title":"Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B Biological Sciences"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1287","DOI":"10.1007\/s10461-022-03865-5","article-title":"The influence of anticipated HIV stigma on health-related behaviors, self-rated health, and treatment preferences among people living with HIV in east Asia","volume":"27","author":"Yu","year":"2023","journal-title":"AIDS and Behavior"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001_bib40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.7189\/jogh.14.04029","article-title":"The trend of AIDS in China: A prediction and comparative analysis with G20 countries based on the global burden of disease study 2019","volume":"14","author":"Zhai","year":"2024","journal-title":"Journal of Global Health"}],"container-title":["Infectious Disease Modelling"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S2468042725000491?httpAccept=text\/xml","content-type":"text\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S2468042725000491?httpAccept=text\/plain","content-type":"text\/plain","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,16]],"date-time":"2026-05-16T00:54:27Z","timestamp":1778892867000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/linkinghub.elsevier.com\/retrieve\/pii\/S2468042725000491"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,12]]},"references-count":35,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,12]]}},"alternative-id":["S2468042725000491"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001","relation":{},"ISSN":["2468-0427"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2468-0427","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,12]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Elsevier","name":"publisher","label":"This article is maintained by"},{"value":"Estimating undiagnosed HIV infections by age group in Japan: an extended age-dependent back-calculation","name":"articletitle","label":"Article Title"},{"value":"Infectious Disease Modelling","name":"journaltitle","label":"Journal Title"},{"value":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.idm.2025.06.001","name":"articlelink","label":"CrossRef DOI link to publisher maintained version"},{"value":"article","name":"content_type","label":"Content Type"},{"value":"\u00a9 2025 The Authors. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co. Ltd\u00e9","name":"copyright","label":"Copyright"}]}}