{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,22]],"date-time":"2026-10-22T15:40:30Z","timestamp":1792683630633,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":33,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,1]],"date-time":"2026-11-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1793491200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/tdm\/userlicense\/1.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,1]],"date-time":"2026-11-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1793491200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/legal\/tdmrep-license"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,13]],"date-time":"2026-09-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1789257600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["32202857"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["32202857"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100007724","name":"Wuhan University of Technology","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2025-XY-Z-010"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2025-XY-Z-010"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100007724","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["clinicalkey.com","clinicalkey.com.au","clinicalkey.es","clinicalkey.fr","clinicalkey.jp","ijidonline.com","elsevier.com","sciencedirect.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["International Journal of Infectious Diseases"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,11]]},"DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,15]],"date-time":"2026-09-15T20:00:00Z","timestamp":1789502400000},"page":"109119","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/elsevier_cm_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"special_numbering":"C","title":["A multi-model counterfactual analysis of human brucellosis in China: spatiotemporal epidemiology and heterogeneous pandemic-associated deviations in 2020"],"prefix":"10.1016","volume":"172","author":[{"given":"Mengen","family":"Xu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"YuanZhi","family":"Huang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hongwei","family":"Ma","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ziyue","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xudong","family":"Zhou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shenglan","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhixin","family":"Lei","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Qianying","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhiqun","family":"Lei","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","reference":[{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010404","article-title":"Human brucellosis: widespread information deficiency hinders an understanding of global disease frequency","volume":"16","author":"Laine","year":"2022","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"775","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(07)70286-4","article-title":"Human brucellosis","volume":"7","author":"Franco","year":"2007","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0001929","article-title":"Clinical manifestations of human brucellosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"6","author":"Dean","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1936","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(12)61678-X","article-title":"Ecology of zoonoses: natural and unnatural histories","volume":"380","author":"Karesh","year":"2012","journal-title":"The Lancet"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1080\/22221751.2023.2290839","article-title":"Long ignored but making a comeback: a worldwide epidemiological evolution of human brucellosis","volume":"13","author":"Liu","year":"2024","journal-title":"Emerg Microbes Infect"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"326","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(10)70312-1","article-title":"Towards a conceptual framework to support one-health research for policy on emerging zoonoses","volume":"11","author":"Coker","year":"2011","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"184","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2302.151710","article-title":"Changing epidemiology of human brucellosis, China, 1955\u20132014","volume":"23","author":"Lai","year":"2017","journal-title":"Emerg Infect Dis"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2909.230052","article-title":"Global estimate of human brucellosis incidence","volume":"29","author":"Laine","year":"2023","journal-title":"Emerg Infect Dis"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1080\/22221751.2024.2417859","article-title":"Brucellosis seroprevalence in cattle in China during 2014\u20132024: a systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"13","author":"Tian","year":"2024","journal-title":"Emerg Microbes Infect"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0011765","article-title":"Socioeconomic, meteorological factors and spatiotemporal distribution of human brucellosis in China between 2004 and 2019\u2014a spatial panel model","volume":"17","author":"Sun","year":"2023","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0013463","article-title":"Multiscale environmental drivers of human brucellosis transmission in Xinjiang: spatiotemporal analysis integrating GAM and MaxEnt","volume":"19","author":"Zhou","year":"2025","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"193","DOI":"10.1038\/s41579-021-00639-z","article-title":"Infectious disease in an era of global change","volume":"20","author":"Baker","year":"2022","journal-title":"Nat Rev Microbiol"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1124","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-017-00923-8","article-title":"Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases","volume":"8","author":"Allen","year":"2017","journal-title":"Nat Commun"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"990","DOI":"10.1038\/nature06536","article-title":"Global trends in emerging infectious diseases","volume":"451","author":"Jones","year":"2008","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6923","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-021-27292-7","article-title":"Changes in notifiable infectious disease incidence in China during the COVID-19 pandemic","volume":"12","author":"Geng","year":"2021","journal-title":"Nat Commun"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"638","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abb6105","article-title":"An investigation of transmission control measures during first 50 days of COVID-19 in China","volume":"368","author":"Tian","year":"2020","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1303","DOI":"10.1038\/s41562-020-01009-0","article-title":"Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions","volume":"4","author":"Haug","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nat Hum Behav"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"493","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abb4218","article-title":"Human mobility and COVID-19 control in China","volume":"368","author":"Kraemer","year":"2020","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/S2468-2667(20)30073-6","article-title":"Social mixing and COVID-19 outcomes in Wuhan","volume":"5","author":"Prem","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet Public Health"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0020","article-title":"Impact of NPIs on COVID-19 and influenza in Hong Kong","volume":"5","author":"Cowling","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet Public Health"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001413","article-title":"Big data opportunities for Global Infectious Disease surveillance","volume":"10","author":"Hay","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"335","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-0258(20000215)19:3<335::AID-SIM336>3.0.CO;2-Z","article-title":"Permutation tests for joinpoint regression with applications to cancer rates","volume":"19","author":"Kim","year":"2000","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"17","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/37.1-2.17","article-title":"Notes on continuous stochastic phenomena","volume":"37","author":"Moran","year":"1950","journal-title":"Biometrika"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"93","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1538-4632.1995.tb00338.x","article-title":"Local indicators of spatial association\u2014LISA","volume":"27","author":"Anselin","year":"1995","journal-title":"Geogr Anal"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"61","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-985X.00186","article-title":"Prospective time periodic geographical disease surveillance using a scan statistic","volume":"164","author":"Kulldorff","year":"2001","journal-title":"J R Stat Soc A"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3146","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1812594116","article-title":"A collaborative multiyear, multimodel assessment of seasonal influenza forecasting in the United States","volume":"116","author":"Reich","year":"2019","journal-title":"PNAS"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0027","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v027.i03","article-title":"Automatic time series forecasting: the forecast package for R","volume":"27","author":"Hyndman","year":"2008","journal-title":"J Stat Softw"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"37","DOI":"10.1080\/00031305.2017.1380080","article-title":"Forecasting at scale","volume":"72","author":"Taylor","year":"2018","journal-title":"Am Stat"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1008618","article-title":"Evaluating epidemic forecasts in an interval format","volume":"17","author":"Bracher","year":"2021","journal-title":"PLoS Comput Biol"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"70","DOI":"10.1016\/j.csda.2017.11.003","article-title":"A note on the validity of cross-validation for evaluating autoregressive time series prediction","volume":"120","author":"Bergmeir","year":"2018","journal-title":"Comput Stat Data Anal"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1007327","article-title":"The calendar of epidemics: Seasonal cycles of infectious diseases","volume":"14","author":"Martinez","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLoS Pathog"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3891","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-024-48201-8","article-title":"Temporal shifts in notifiable diseases in China during COVID-19","volume":"15","author":"Li","year":"2024","journal-title":"Nat Commun"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119_bib0033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjgh-2020-003421","article-title":"Reduction in healthcare services during the COVID-19 pandemic in China","volume":"5","author":"Zhang","year":"2020","journal-title":"BMJ Global Health"}],"container-title":["International Journal of Infectious Diseases"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S120197122600754X?httpAccept=text\/xml","content-type":"text\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S120197122600754X?httpAccept=text\/plain","content-type":"text\/plain","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,22]],"date-time":"2026-10-22T14:52:46Z","timestamp":1792680766000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/linkinghub.elsevier.com\/retrieve\/pii\/S120197122600754X"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,11]]},"references-count":33,"alternative-id":["S120197122600754X"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119","relation":{},"ISSN":["1201-9712"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1201-9712","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,11]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Elsevier","name":"publisher","label":"This article is maintained by"},{"value":"A multi-model counterfactual analysis of human brucellosis in China: spatiotemporal epidemiology and heterogeneous pandemic-associated deviations in 2020","name":"articletitle","label":"Article Title"},{"value":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases","name":"journaltitle","label":"Journal Title"},{"value":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ijid.2026.109119","name":"articlelink","label":"CrossRef DOI link to publisher maintained version"},{"value":"article","name":"content_type","label":"Content Type"},{"value":"\u00a9 2026 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.","name":"copyright","label":"Copyright"}],"article-number":"109119"}}