{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,26]],"date-time":"2026-02-26T15:50:02Z","timestamp":1772121002321,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":41,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2012,4,1]],"date-time":"2012-04-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1333238400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/tdm\/userlicense\/1.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Journal of Clinical Epidemiology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2012,4]]},"DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2012,1,2]],"date-time":"2012-01-02T05:35:24Z","timestamp":1325482524000},"page":"404-412","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":15,"title":["Development and validation of clinical prediction models: Marginal differences between logistic regression, penalized maximum likelihood estimation, and genetic programming"],"prefix":"10.1016","volume":"65","author":[{"given":"Kristel J.M.","family":"Janssen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ivar","family":"Siccama","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yvonne","family":"Vergouwe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Hendrik","family":"Koffijberg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"T.P.A.","family":"Debray","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Maarten","family":"Keijzer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Diederick E.","family":"Grobbee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Karel G.M.","family":"Moons","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"78","reference":[{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"201","DOI":"10.7326\/0003-4819-118-3-199302010-00009","article-title":"The risk of determining risk with multivariable models","volume":"118","author":"Concato","year":"1993","journal-title":"Ann Intern Med"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"488","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.1997.03540300056034","article-title":"Clinical prediction rules. A review and suggested modifications of methodological standards","volume":"277","author":"Laupacis","year":"1997","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1059","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-0258(20000430)19:8<1059::AID-SIM412>3.0.CO;2-0","article-title":"Prognostic modelling with logistic regression analysis: a comparison of selection and estimation methods in small data sets","volume":"19","author":"Steyerberg","year":"2000","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1303","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.4780091109","article-title":"Predictive value of statistical models","volume":"9","author":"Van Houwelingen","year":"1990","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"361","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-0258(19960229)15:4<361::AID-SIM168>3.0.CO;2-4","article-title":"Multivariable prognostic models: issues in developing models, evaluating assumptions and adequacy, and measuring and reducing errors","volume":"15","author":"Harrell","year":"1996","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib6","series-title":"Regression modelling strategies","author":"Harrell","year":"2001"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1373","DOI":"10.1016\/S0895-4356(96)00236-3","article-title":"A simulation study of the number of events per variable in logistic regression analysis","volume":"49","author":"Peduzzi","year":"1996","journal-title":"J Clin Epidemiol"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib8","series-title":"Clinical prediction models. A practical approach to development, validation, and updating","author":"Steyerberg","year":"2009"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"312","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1981.10477650","article-title":"Censored data and the bootstrap","volume":"76","author":"Efron","year":"1981","journal-title":"J Am Stat Assoc"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"942","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1992.10476248","article-title":"Flexible methods for analysing survival data using splines, with applications to breast cancer prognosis","volume":"87","author":"Gray","year":"1997","journal-title":"J Am Stat Assoc"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2427","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.4780132307","article-title":"Penalized likelihood in Cox regression","volume":"13","author":"Verweij","year":"1994","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1262","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2004.01.020","article-title":"Penalized maximum likelihood estimation to directly adjust diagnostic and prognostic prediction models for overoptimism: a clinical example","volume":"57","author":"Moons","year":"2004","journal-title":"J Clin Epidemiol"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib13","first-page":"468","article-title":"A comparison of performance of mathematical predictive methods for medical diagnosis: identifying acute cardiac ischemia among emergency department patients","volume":"43","author":"Selker","year":"1995","journal-title":"J Investig Med"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1159","DOI":"10.1016\/S0895-4356(01)00395-X","article-title":"Comparison of logistic regression and neural networks to predict rehospitalization in patients with stroke","volume":"54","author":"Ottenbacher","year":"2001","journal-title":"J Clin Epidemiol"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1225","DOI":"10.1016\/S0895-4356(96)00002-9","article-title":"Advantages and disadvantages of using artificial neural networks versus logistic regression for predicting medical outcomes","volume":"49","author":"Tu","year":"1996","journal-title":"J\u00a0Clin Epidemiol"},{"issue":"pt 1","key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib16","first-page":"493","article-title":"Using classification tree and logistic regression methods to diagnose myocardial infarction","volume":"9","author":"Tsien","year":"1998","journal-title":"Medinfo"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2501","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-0258(19981115)17:21<2501::AID-SIM938>3.0.CO;2-M","article-title":"A comparison of statistical learning methods on the Gusto database","volume":"17","author":"Ennis","year":"1998","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2937","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.2770","article-title":"A comparison of regression trees, logistic regression, generalized additive models, and multivariate adaptive regression splines for predicting AMI mortality","volume":"26","author":"Austin","year":"2007","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"551","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2003.10.011","article-title":"Genetic programming outperformed multivariable logistic regression in diagnosing pulmonary embolism","volume":"57","author":"Biesheuvel","year":"2004","journal-title":"J Clin Epidemiol"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"872","DOI":"10.1126\/science.8346439","article-title":"Genetic algorithms: principles of natural selection applied to computation","volume":"261","author":"Forrest","year":"1993","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"153","DOI":"10.1016\/S0300-9572(03)00030-3","article-title":"Predicting defibrillation success by \u2019genetic\u2019 programming in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest","volume":"57","author":"Podbregar","year":"2003","journal-title":"Resuscitation"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"195","DOI":"10.1016\/j.artmed.2004.02.007","article-title":"Evolving rule-based systems in two medical domains using genetic programming","volume":"32","author":"Tsakonas","year":"2004","journal-title":"Artif Intell Med"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2212","DOI":"10.1161\/01.CIR.93.12.2212","article-title":"Management of deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism. A statement for healthcare professionals. Council on Thrombosis (in consultation with the Council on Cardiovascular Radiology), American Heart Association","volume":"93","author":"Hirsh","year":"1996","journal-title":"Circulation"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"200","DOI":"10.1160\/TH04-12-0829","article-title":"Ruling out deep venous thrombosis in primary care. A simple diagnostic algorithm including D-dimer testing","volume":"94","author":"Oudega","year":"2005","journal-title":"Thromb Haemost"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib25","first-page":"613","article-title":"Excluding deep vein thrombosis safely in primary care","volume":"55","author":"Toll","year":"2006","journal-title":"J Fam Pract"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3803","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.1422","article-title":"Simplifying a prognostic model: a simulation study based on clinical data","volume":"21","author":"Ambler","year":"2002","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"207","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pt.2005.03.007","article-title":"Mining parasite data using genetic programming","volume":"21","author":"Barrett","year":"2005","journal-title":"Trends Parasitol"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib28","series-title":"Genetic programming III","author":"Koza","year":"1999"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"53","DOI":"10.1162\/106365603321829005","article-title":"General schema theory for genetic programming with subtree-swapping crossover: part I","volume":"11","author":"Poli","year":"2003","journal-title":"Evol Comput"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib30","series-title":"Adaptation in natural and artificial systems","author":"Holland","year":"1975"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib31","series-title":"Genetic algorithms in search optimization and machine learning","author":"Goldberg","year":"1989"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"143","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.4780030207","article-title":"Regression modelling strategies for improved prognostic prediction","volume":"3","author":"Harrell","year":"1984","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"839","DOI":"10.1148\/radiology.148.3.6878708","article-title":"A method of comparing the areas under receiver operating characteristic curves derived from the same cases","volume":"148","author":"Hanley","year":"1983","journal-title":"Radiology"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib34","series-title":"An introduction to the bootstrap. Monographs on statistics and applied probability","author":"Efron","year":"1993"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"928","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCULATIONAHA.106.672402","article-title":"Use and misuse of the receiver operating characteristic curve in risk prediction","volume":"115","author":"Cook","year":"2007","journal-title":"Circulation"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"157","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.2929","article-title":"Evaluating the added predictive ability of a new marker: from area under the ROC curve to reclassification and beyond","volume":"27","author":"Pencina","year":"2008","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"774","DOI":"10.1016\/S0895-4356(01)00341-9","article-title":"Internal validation of predictive models: efficiency of some procedures for logistic regression analysis","volume":"54","author":"Steyerberg","year":"2001","journal-title":"J Clin Epidemiol"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"441","DOI":"10.1016\/S0895-4356(03)00047-7","article-title":"Internal and external validation of predictive models: a simulation study of bias and precision in small samples","volume":"56","author":"Steyerberg","year":"2003","journal-title":"J Clin Epidemiol"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"964","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/28.5.964","article-title":"The use of fractional polynomials to model continuous risk variables in epidemiology","volume":"28","author":"Royston","year":"1999","journal-title":"Int J Epidemiol"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"639","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.1310","article-title":"Stability of multivariable fractional polynomial models with selection of variables and transformations: a bootstrap investigation","volume":"22","author":"Royston","year":"2003","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011_bib41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2509","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.1815","article-title":"A new approach to modelling interactions between treatment and continuous covariates in clinical trials by using fractional polynomials","volume":"23","author":"Royston","year":"2004","journal-title":"Stat Med"}],"container-title":["Journal of Clinical Epidemiology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S0895435611002708?httpAccept=text\/xml","content-type":"text\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S0895435611002708?httpAccept=text\/plain","content-type":"text\/plain","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2019,6,21]],"date-time":"2019-06-21T17:54:19Z","timestamp":1561139659000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/linkinghub.elsevier.com\/retrieve\/pii\/S0895435611002708"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2012,4]]},"references-count":41,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2012,4]]}},"alternative-id":["S0895435611002708"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2011.08.011","relation":{"has-review":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.3410\/f.716598014.792003074","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["0895-4356"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0895-4356","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2012,4]]}}}