{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,4]],"date-time":"2026-11-04T12:47:48Z","timestamp":1793796468748,"version":"4.6.1"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,1]],"date-time":"2025-02-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1738368000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/tdm\/userlicense\/1.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,1]],"date-time":"2025-02-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1738368000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/legal\/tdmrep-license"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,26]],"date-time":"2024-11-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1732579200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["elsevier.com","sciencedirect.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Journal of Theoretical Biology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,2]]},"DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,26]],"date-time":"2024-11-26T23:10:42Z","timestamp":1732662642000},"page":"112007","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/elsevier_cm_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":10,"special_numbering":"C","title":["A hybrid approach to study and forecast climate-sensitive norovirus infections in the USA"],"prefix":"10.1016","volume":"598","author":[{"given":"Juping","family":"Ji","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1639-0950","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Shohel","family":"Ahmed","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4132-6109","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hao","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","reference":[{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"668","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/119.6.668","article-title":"Winter vomiting disease","volume":"119","author":"Adler","year":"1969","journal-title":"J. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b2","unstructured":"Anon,, 2023a. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Available from https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/norovirus."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b3","unstructured":"Anon,, 2023b. Weather data. Available from https:\/\/www.wunderground.com\/history."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b4","unstructured":"Anon,, 2023c. Norovirus Regional Trends. Available from https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/surveillance\/nrevss\/norovirus\/region.html."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b5","unstructured":"Anon,, 2023d. United States Population Growth by Region. Available from https:\/\/www.census.gov\/popclock\/data_tables.php?component=growth."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1553","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1410.080117","article-title":"Norwalk virus shedding after experimental human infection","volume":"14","author":"Atmar","year":"2008","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Dis."},{"issue":"8","key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b7","first-page":"1563","article-title":"Norovirus outbreaks: a systematic review of commonly implicated transmission routes and vehicles","volume":"141","author":"Bitler","year":"2013","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect."},{"issue":"12","key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3552","DOI":"10.1128\/AEM.04188-13","article-title":"Environmental transmission of human noroviruses in shellfish waters","volume":"80","author":"Campos","year":"2014","journal-title":"Appl. Environ. Microbiol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b9","first-page":"1","article-title":"Updated norovirus outbreak management and disease prevention guidelines","volume":"60","author":"CDC","year":"2011","journal-title":"MMWR Morb. Mortal. Wkly. Rep."},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"40","DOI":"10.1080\/09603123.2016.1257705","article-title":"Environmental indicators for human norovirus outbreaks","volume":"27","author":"Chenar","year":"2017","journal-title":"Int. J. Environ. Health Res."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"275","DOI":"10.1016\/j.marenvres.2017.08.009","article-title":"Environmental indicators of oyster norovirus outbreaks in coastal waters","volume":"130","author":"Chenar","year":"2017","journal-title":"Mar. Environ. Res."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"212","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envint.2017.11.032","article-title":"Development of artificial intelligence approach to forecasting oyster norovirus outbreaks along Gulf of Mexico coast","volume":"111","author":"Chenar","year":"2018","journal-title":"Environ. Int."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7196","DOI":"10.1128\/AEM.01871-14","article-title":"Absolute humidity influences the seasonal persistence and infectivity of human norovirus","volume":"80","author":"Colas de la Noue","year":"2014","journal-title":"Appl. Environ. Microbiol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1189","DOI":"10.1214\/aos\/1013203451","article-title":"Greedy function approximation: a gradient boosting machine","volume":"29","author":"Friedman","year":"2001","journal-title":"Ann. Statist."},{"issue":"22","key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b15","first-page":"491","article-title":"Vital signs: foodborne norovirus outbreaks-United States, 2009\u20132012","volume":"63","author":"Hall","year":"2014","journal-title":"MMWR Morb. Mortal. Wkly. Rep."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2023.109087","article-title":"Climate-dependent effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 mitigation","volume":"366","author":"Ji","year":"2023","journal-title":"Math. Biosci."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1088\/1742-6596\/930\/1\/012002","article-title":"Forecasting error calculation with mean absolute deviation and mean absolute percentage error","volume":"930","author":"Khair","year":"2017","journal-title":"J. Phys. Conf. Ser."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13303","DOI":"10.1021\/es3032105","article-title":"Temperature and humidity influences on inactivation kinetics of enteric viruses on surfaces","volume":"46","author":"Kim","year":"2012","journal-title":"Environ. Sci. Technol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2231","DOI":"10.1007\/s11538-015-0121-5","article-title":"The inverse method for a childhood infectious disease model with its application to pre-vaccination and post-vaccination measles data","volume":"77","author":"Kong","year":"2015","journal-title":"Bull. Math. Biol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b20","first-page":"443","article-title":"The effect of temperature on food poisoning: a time-series analysis of salmonellosis in ten European countries","volume":"132","author":"Kovats","year":"2004","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"721","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejor.2018.11.070","article-title":"Understanding foodborne transmission mechanisms for Norovirus: A study for the UK\u2019s Food Standards Agency","volume":"275","author":"Lane","year":"2019","journal-title":"European J. Oper. Res."},{"issue":"8","key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0006671","article-title":"Host, weather and virological factors drive norovirus epidemiology: time-series analysis of laboratory surveillance data in England and Wales","volume":"4","author":"Lopman","year":"2009","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"131","DOI":"10.1007\/s12560-012-9091-z","article-title":"A review of known and hypothetical transmission routes for noroviruses","volume":"4","author":"Mathijs","year":"2012","journal-title":"Food Environ. Virol."},{"issue":"3","key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0173996","article-title":"The transmissibility of noroviruses: Statistical modeling of outbreak events with known route of transmission in Japan","volume":"12","author":"Matsuyama","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"3","key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"205","DOI":"10.7883\/yoken.JJID.2006.205","article-title":"A food-borne norovirus outbreak at a primary school in Wakayama prefecture","volume":"59","author":"Morioka","year":"2006","journal-title":"Jpn. J. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"284","DOI":"10.1086\/315586","article-title":"Cold weather seasonality of gastroenteritis associated with Norwalk-like viruses","volume":"181","author":"Mounts","year":"2000","journal-title":"J. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.3389\/fnbot.2013.00021","article-title":"Gradient boosting machines, a tutorial","volume":"7","author":"Natekin","year":"2013","journal-title":"Front. Neurorobotics"},{"issue":"12","key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3996","DOI":"10.1128\/JCM.01516-07","article-title":"Norovirus infections in symptomatic and asymptomatic food handlers in Japan","volume":"45","author":"Ozawa","year":"2007","journal-title":"J. Clin. Microbiol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"509","DOI":"10.1080\/17513758.2011.645510","article-title":"Extracting the time-dependent transmission rate from infection data via solution of an inverse ODE problem","volume":"6","author":"Pollicott","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. Biol. Dyn."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"37","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-4-37","article-title":"Norovirus gastroenteritis general outbreak associated with raw shellfish consumption in South Italy","volume":"4","author":"Prato","year":"2004","journal-title":"BMC Infect. Dis."},{"issue":"6","key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"524","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1469-0691.2009.02846.x","article-title":"Norovirus seasonality and the potential impact of climate change","volume":"15","author":"Rohayem","year":"2009","journal-title":"Clin. Microbiol. Infect."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2018.0267","article-title":"Transmission routes of rare seasonal diseases: the case of norovirus infections","volume":"374","author":"Rushton","year":"2019","journal-title":"Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B"},{"issue":"12","key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1571","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph14121571","article-title":"Airborne or fomite transmission for norovirus? A case study revisited","volume":"14","author":"S. Xiao","year":"2017","journal-title":"Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1701.P11101","article-title":"Foodborne illness acquired in the United States\u2013major pathogens","volume":"17","author":"Scallan","year":"2011","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Diseases"},{"issue":"5","key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"802","DOI":"10.1086\/605127","article-title":"Norovirus illness is a global problem: Emergence and spread of norovirus GII.4 variants, 2001\u20132007","volume":"200","author":"Siebenga","year":"2009","journal-title":"J. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b36","first-page":"1695","article-title":"A large foodborne outbreak of norovirus in diners at a restaurant in England between January and 2009","volume":"140","author":"Smith","year":"2012","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b37","first-page":"339","article-title":"Outbreaks of norwalk-like virus-associated gastroenteritis traced to shellfish: coexistence of two genotypes in one specimen","volume":"116","author":"Sugieda","year":"1996","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b38","first-page":"119","article-title":"Temperature dependence of reported Campylobacter infection in England, 1989\u20131999","volume":"134","author":"Tam","year":"2006","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect."},{"issue":"3","key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"37","DOI":"10.14252\/foodsafetyfscj.2014027","article-title":"Norovirus and foodborne disease: a review","volume":"2","author":"Ushijima","year":"2014","journal-title":"Food Saf."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"238","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1402.061567","article-title":"Emergence of new norovirus variants on spring cruise ships and prediction of winter epidemics","volume":"14","author":"Verhoef","year":"2008","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b41","article-title":"Discrete inverse method for extracting disease transmission rates from accessible infection data","author":"Wang","year":"2023","journal-title":"SIAM J. Appl. Math."},{"issue":"5","key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"57","DOI":"10.1007\/s11538-022-01012-8","article-title":"A hypothesis-free bridging of disease dynamics and non-pharmaceutical policies","volume":"84","author":"Wang","year":"2022","journal-title":"Bull. Math. Biol."},{"issue":"9","key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"90","DOI":"10.1007\/s11538-022-01047-x","article-title":"From policy to prediction: Forecasting COVID-19 dynamics under imperfect vaccination","volume":"84","author":"Wang","year":"2022","journal-title":"Bull. Math. Biol."},{"issue":"12","key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"19524","DOI":"10.2807\/ese.15.12.19524-en","article-title":"Norovirus outbreaks linked to oyster consumption in the United Kingdom, Norway, France, Sweden and Denmark, 2010","volume":"15","author":"Westrell","year":"2010","journal-title":"Eurosurveillance"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"95","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1101.040426","article-title":"Norovirus and foodborne disease, United States, 1991\u20132000","volume":"11","author":"Widdowson","year":"2005","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007_b46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"79","DOI":"10.3354\/cr030079","article-title":"Advantages of the mean absolute error (MAE) over the root mean square error (RMSE) in assessing average model performance","volume":"30","author":"Willmott","year":"2005","journal-title":"Clim. Res."}],"container-title":["Journal of Theoretical Biology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S0022519324002923?httpAccept=text\/xml","content-type":"text\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S0022519324002923?httpAccept=text\/plain","content-type":"text\/plain","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,10]],"date-time":"2024-12-10T01:47:12Z","timestamp":1733795232000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/linkinghub.elsevier.com\/retrieve\/pii\/S0022519324002923"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,2]]},"references-count":46,"alternative-id":["S0022519324002923"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007","relation":{},"ISSN":["0022-5193"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0022-5193","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,2]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Elsevier","name":"publisher","label":"This article is maintained by"},{"value":"A hybrid approach to study and forecast climate-sensitive norovirus infections in the USA","name":"articletitle","label":"Article Title"},{"value":"Journal of Theoretical Biology","name":"journaltitle","label":"Journal Title"},{"value":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jtbi.2024.112007","name":"articlelink","label":"CrossRef DOI link to publisher maintained version"},{"value":"article","name":"content_type","label":"Content Type"},{"value":"\u00a9 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.","name":"copyright","label":"Copyright"}],"article-number":"112007"}}