{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]],"date-time":"2026-10-09T09:10:19Z","timestamp":1791537019103,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":40,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,1]],"date-time":"2022-04-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1648771200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/tdm\/userlicense\/1.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,1]],"date-time":"2022-04-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1648771200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/legal\/tdmrep-license"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,6]],"date-time":"2021-10-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1633478400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100002429","name":"Amgen","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100002429","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["clinicalkey.com","clinicalkey.com.au","clinicalkey.es","clinicalkey.fr","clinicalkey.jp","valueinhealthjournal.com","elsevier.com","sciencedirect.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Value in Health"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,4]]},"DOI":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,11,3]],"date-time":"2021-11-03T03:51:04Z","timestamp":1635911464000},"page":"595-604","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/elsevier_cm_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Estimating and Extrapolating Survival Using a State-Transition Modeling Approach: A Practical Application in Multiple Myeloma"],"prefix":"10.1016","volume":"25","author":[{"given":"Istvan","family":"Majer","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sonja","family":"Kroep","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rana","family":"Maroun","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Claire","family":"Williams","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sven","family":"Klijn","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stephen","family":"Palmer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","reference":[{"key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib1","author":"Woods"},{"issue":"6","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"771","DOI":"10.1007\/s40258-019-00513-3","article-title":"A\u00a0review of recent decision-analytic models used to evaluate the economic value of cancer treatments","volume":"17","author":"Bullement","year":"2019","journal-title":"Appl Health Econ Health Policy"},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"160","DOI":"10.1017\/S0266462319000175","article-title":"How do pharmaceutical companies model survival of cancer patients? A review of NICE single technology appraisals in 2017","volume":"35","author":"Gallacher","year":"2019","journal-title":"Int J Technol Assess Health Care"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"377","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X16639900","article-title":"Extrapolating survival from randomized trials using external data: a review of methods","volume":"37","author":"Jackson","year":"2017","journal-title":"Med Decis Making"},{"issue":"6","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"812","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jval.2012.06.014","article-title":"State-transition modeling: a report of the ISPOR-SMDM modeling good research practices task Force-3","volume":"15","author":"Siebert","year":"2012","journal-title":"Value Health"},{"issue":"8","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"869","DOI":"10.1007\/s40273-021-01034-5","article-title":"Estimation of transition probabilities for state-transition models: a review of NICE appraisals","volume":"39","author":"Srivastava","year":"2021","journal-title":"Pharmacoeconomics"},{"issue":"12","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1613","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jval.2020.08.2094","article-title":"Partitioned survival and state transition models for healthcare decision making in oncology: where are we now?","volume":"23","author":"Woods","year":"2020","journal-title":"Value Health"},{"issue":"3","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"A194","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jval.2014.03.1130","article-title":"The inherent bias from using partitioned survival models in economic evaluation","volume":"17","author":"Coyle","year":"2014","journal-title":"Value Health"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7","DOI":"10.1007\/s40273-017-0583-4","article-title":"Oncology modeling for fun and profit! Key steps for busy analysts in health technology assessment","volume":"36","author":"Beca","year":"2018","journal-title":"Pharmacoeconomics"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"255","DOI":"10.1007\/s41669-017-0018-3","article-title":"Methodological issues in economic evaluations submitted to the Pan-Canadian oncology drug review (pCODR)","volume":"1","author":"Masucci","year":"2017","journal-title":"Pharmacoecon Open"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"337","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X17697019","article-title":"Extrapolation of survival data in cost-effectiveness analyses: the need for causal clarity","volume":"37","author":"Hawkins","year":"2017","journal-title":"Med Decis Making"},{"issue":"3","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"371","DOI":"10.1007\/s40258-018-0452-0","article-title":"Modelled economic evaluation of nivolumab for the treatment of second-line advanced or metastatic squamous non-small-cell lung cancer in Australia using both partition survival and markov models","volume":"17","author":"Gao","year":"2019","journal-title":"Appl Health Econ Health Policy"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"416","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jval.2017.09.022","article-title":"Modeling clinical outcomes in prostate cancer: application and validation of the discrete event simulation approach","volume":"21","author":"Pan","year":"2018","journal-title":"Value Health"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"97","DOI":"10.1007\/s40273-019-00845-x","article-title":"Evaluating partitioned survival and markov decision-analytic modeling approaches for use in cost-effectiveness analysis: estimating and comparing survival outcomes","volume":"38","author":"Smare","year":"2020","journal-title":"Pharmacoeconomics"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"340","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X16651869","article-title":"Cost-effectiveness analysis in R using a multi-state modeling survival analysis framework: a tutorial","volume":"37","author":"Williams","year":"2017","journal-title":"Med Decis Making"},{"issue":"8","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"728","DOI":"10.1200\/JCO.2017.76.5032","article-title":"Improvement in overall survival with carfilzomib, lenalidomide, and dexamethasone in patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma","volume":"36","author":"Siegel","year":"2018","journal-title":"J\u00a0Clin Oncol"},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"142","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1411321","article-title":"Carfilzomib, lenalidomide, and dexamethasone for relapsed multiple myeloma","volume":"372","author":"Stewart","year":"2015","journal-title":"N\u00a0Engl J Med"},{"issue":"3","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"499","DOI":"10.4149\/neo_2018_180824N644","article-title":"Lenalidomide and dexamethasone in treatment of patients with relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma - analysis of data from the Czech myeloma Group Registry of monoclonal gammopathies","volume":"66","author":"Maisnar","year":"2019","journal-title":"Neoplasma"},{"issue":"11","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2389","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.2712","article-title":"Tutorial in biostatistics: competing risks and multi-state models","volume":"26","author":"Putter","year":"2007","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"issue":"23","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4118","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.5823","article-title":"Simulating biologically plausible complex survival data","volume":"32","author":"Crowther","year":"2013","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"issue":"6","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"582","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2019.7853","article-title":"Time horizons in cost analyses","volume":"322","author":"Majer","year":"2019","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib24","series-title":"Statistical Computing With R","author":"Rizzo","year":"2019"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib25","unstructured":"Human Mortality Database. Germany: University of California BU, and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. www.mortality.org or www.humanmortality.de. Accessed February 24,\u00a02020."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib26","author":"Therneau"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib27","first-page":"i08","article-title":"flexsurv: A Platform for Parametric Survival Modeling in R","volume":"70","author":"Jackson","year":"2016","journal-title":"J\u00a0Stat Softw"},{"issue":"7","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib28","first-page":"1","article-title":"mstate: an R package for the analysis of\u00a0competing risks and multi-state models","volume":"38","author":"de Wreede","year":"2011","journal-title":"J\u00a0Stat Softw"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib29","author":"Douglas"},{"issue":"7","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"A382","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jval.2016.09.203","article-title":"Lenalidomide for treating multiple myeloma after 1 prior treatment; an application of multi-state markov modelling for the extrapolation of patient level survival data","volume":"19","author":"Saunders","year":"2016","journal-title":"Value Health"},{"issue":"11","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2208","DOI":"10.1038\/leu.2016.147","article-title":"Early relapse following initial therapy for multiple myeloma predicts poor outcomes in the era of novel agents","volume":"30","author":"Majithia","year":"2016","journal-title":"Leukemia"},{"issue":"6","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"413","DOI":"10.1038\/bmt.2008.180","article-title":"Impact of early relapse after auto-SCT for multiple myeloma","volume":"42","author":"Kumar","year":"2008","journal-title":"Bone Marrow Transplant"},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"463","DOI":"10.1002\/hon.2499","article-title":"Carfilzomib in relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma patients with early or late relapse following prior therapy: A subgroup analysis of the randomized phase 3 Aspire and Endeavor trials","volume":"36","author":"Mateos","year":"2018","journal-title":"Hematol Oncol"},{"issue":"8","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3489","DOI":"10.1182\/blood-2006-08-040410","article-title":"Genetic abnormalities and survival in multiple myeloma: the experience of the Intergroupe Francophone du My\u00e9lome","volume":"109","author":"Avet-Loiseau","year":"2007","journal-title":"Blood"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"139","DOI":"10.2147\/CEOR.S144208","article-title":"Modeling the economic outcomes of immuno-oncology drugs: alternative model frameworks to capture clinical outcomes","volume":"10","author":"Gibson","year":"2018","journal-title":"Clinicoecon Outcomes Res"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"43","DOI":"10.1007\/s41669-018-0080-5","article-title":"Can we accurately predict cost effectiveness without access to overall survival data? The case study of nivolumab in combination with ipilimumab for the treatment of patients with advanced melanoma in England","volume":"3","author":"Lee","year":"2019","journal-title":"Pharmacoecon Open"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"427","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X16670617","article-title":"Estimation of survival probabilities for use in cost-effectiveness analyses: A comparison of a multi-state modeling survival analysis approach with partitioned survival and markov decision-analytic modeling","volume":"37","author":"Williams","year":"2017","journal-title":"Med Decis Making"},{"issue":"6","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib40","first-page":"630","article-title":"Economic evaluation of nivolumab for the treatment of second-line advanced squamous NSCLC in Canada: a comparison of modeling approaches to estimate and extrapolate survival outcomes","volume":"19","author":"Goeree","year":"2016","journal-title":"J\u00a0Med Econ"},{"issue":"6","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"743","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X12472398","article-title":"Survival analysis for economic evaluations alongside clinical\u00a0trials--extrapolation with patient-level data: inconsistencies, limitations, and a practical guide","volume":"33","author":"Latimer","year":"2013","journal-title":"Med Decis Making"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib42","author":"Moreau"},{"issue":"419","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib43","first-page":"659","article-title":"Modeling and forecasting U.S. Mortality","volume":"87","author":"Lee","year":"1992","journal-title":"J\u00a0Am Stat Assoc"},{"issue":"14","key":"10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011_bib44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2807","DOI":"10.1182\/blood-2012-02-265884","article-title":"How I treat relapsed childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia","volume":"120","author":"Locatelli","year":"2012","journal-title":"Blood"}],"container-title":["Value in Health"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S1098301521017526?httpAccept=text\/xml","content-type":"text\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S1098301521017526?httpAccept=text\/plain","content-type":"text\/plain","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,22]],"date-time":"2025-10-22T01:27:24Z","timestamp":1761096444000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/linkinghub.elsevier.com\/retrieve\/pii\/S1098301521017526"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,4]]},"references-count":40,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,4]]}},"alternative-id":["S1098301521017526"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011","relation":{},"ISSN":["1098-3015"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1098-3015","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,4]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Elsevier","name":"publisher","label":"This article is maintained by"},{"value":"Estimating and Extrapolating Survival Using a State-Transition Modeling Approach: A Practical Application in Multiple Myeloma","name":"articletitle","label":"Article Title"},{"value":"Value in Health","name":"journaltitle","label":"Journal Title"},{"value":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jval.2021.09.011","name":"articlelink","label":"CrossRef DOI link to publisher maintained version"},{"value":"article","name":"content_type","label":"Content Type"},{"value":"\u00a9 2021 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc.","name":"copyright","label":"Copyright"}]}}