{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,8]],"date-time":"2026-09-08T09:10:44Z","timestamp":1788858644949,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":45,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,1]],"date-time":"2026-11-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1793491200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/tdm\/userlicense\/1.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,1]],"date-time":"2026-11-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1793491200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/legal\/tdmrep-license"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,6]],"date-time":"2026-08-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1785974400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003554","name":"Lundbeck Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R335-2019-2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R335-2019-2020"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003554","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001665","name":"French National Research Agency","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["ANR-23-IAHU-0002"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ANR-23-IAHU-0002"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001665","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["elsevier.com","sciencedirect.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Mathematical Biosciences"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,11]]},"DOI":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,7]],"date-time":"2026-08-07T15:02:53Z","timestamp":1786114973000},"page":"109785","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/elsevier_cm_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"special_numbering":"C","title":["Hierarchical mathematical modelling of patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms captures interferon-\u03b1 treatment responses and allows for personalised and population predictions"],"prefix":"10.1016","volume":"401","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0004-1677-4665","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tobias Idor","family":"Boklund","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gurvan","family":"Hermange","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jordan","family":"Snyder","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Johanne","family":"Gudmand-Hoeyer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Morten Kranker","family":"Larsen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Trine Alma","family":"Knudsen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Christina Schjellerup","family":"Eickhardt-Dalb\u00f8ge","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Vibe","family":"Skov","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lasse","family":"Kj\u00e6r","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hans C.","family":"Hasselbalch","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Morten","family":"Andersen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Johnny T.","family":"Ottesen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Thomas","family":"Stiehl","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","reference":[{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"159","DOI":"10.1016\/j.hoc.2020.12.001","article-title":"Overview of myeloproliferative neoplasms: history, pathogenesis, diagnostic criteria, and complications","volume":"35","author":"Tremblay","year":"2021","journal-title":"Hematol.\/Oncol. Clin. N. Am."},{"issue":"16","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1909","DOI":"10.1182\/blood.2022017578","article-title":"Genetic basis and molecular profiling in myeloproliferative neoplasms","volume":"141","author":"Luque Paz","year":"2023","journal-title":"Blood"},{"issue":"16","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1922","DOI":"10.1182\/blood.2022017416","article-title":"Biology and therapeutic targeting of molecular mechanisms in MPN","volume":"141","author":"How","year":"2023","journal-title":"Blood"},{"issue":"3","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"514","DOI":"10.1016\/j.stem.2021.02.001","article-title":"Reconstructing the lineage histories and differentiation trajectories of individual cancer cells in myeloproliferative neoplasms","volume":"28","author":"Van Egeren","year":"2021","journal-title":"Cell Stem Cell"},{"issue":"7895","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"162","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-021-04312-6","article-title":"Life histories of myeloproliferative neoplasms inferred from phylogenies","volume":"602","author":"Williams","year":"2022","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"37","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2120374119","article-title":"Inferring the initiation and development of myeloproliferative neoplasms","volume":"119","author":"Hermange","year":"2022","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci."},{"issue":"16","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1934","DOI":"10.1182\/blood.2022017697","article-title":"JAK2V617F allele burden in polycythemia vera: burden of proof","volume":"141","author":"Moliterno","year":"2023","journal-title":"Blood"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1186\/s12967-018-1729-7","article-title":"The ruxolitinib effect: understanding how molecular pathogenesis and epigenetic dysregulation impact therapeutic efficacy in myeloproliferative neoplasms","volume":"16","author":"Greenfield","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Transl. Med."},{"issue":"11","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1101\/cshperspect.a028423","article-title":"The interferon (IFN) class of cytokines and the IFN regulatory factor (IRF) transcription factor family","volume":"10","author":"Negishi","year":"2018","journal-title":"Cold Spring Harb. Perspect. Biol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1144","DOI":"10.1038\/nature03546","article-title":"A unique clonal JAK2 mutation leading to constitutive signalling causes polycythaemia vera","volume":"434","author":"James","year":"2005","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"8","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2119","DOI":"10.3390\/cancers12082119","article-title":"Mathematical modeling of MPNs offers understanding and decision support for personalized treatment","volume":"12","author":"Ottesen","year":"2020","journal-title":"Cancers"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0012","article-title":"Dose-dependent mathematical modeling of interferon-\u03b1-treatment for personalized treatment of myeloproliferative neoplasms","volume":"1","author":"Pedersen","year":"2021","journal-title":"Comput. Syst. Oncol."},{"issue":"22","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2231","DOI":"10.1182\/blood.2021010986","article-title":"Inferring the dynamics of mutated hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells induced by IFN\u03b1 in myeloproliferative neoplasms","volume":"138","author":"Mosca","year":"2021","journal-title":"Blood"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/imammb\/dqae006","article-title":"Mathematical modelling, selection and hierarchical inference to determine the minimal dose in IFN\u03b1 therapy against myeloproliferative neoplasms","author":"Hermange","year":"2024","journal-title":"Math. Med. Biol. J. IMA"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.3389\/fimmu.2024.1384509","article-title":"Mathematical modelling of stem and progenitor cell dynamics during ruxolitinib treatment of patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms","volume":"15","author":"Boklund","year":"2024","journal-title":"Front. Immunol."},{"issue":"8","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0183620","article-title":"Mathematical modelling as a proof of concept for MPNs as a human inflammation model for cancer development","volume":"12","author":"Andersen","year":"2017","journal-title":"Plos One"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"90","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2019.01.001","article-title":"Bridging blood cancers and inflammation: the reduced cancitis model","volume":"465","author":"Ottesen","year":"2019","journal-title":"J. Theor. Biol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2020.108372","article-title":"Global dynamics of healthy and cancer cells competing in the hematopoietic system","volume":"326","author":"Andersen","year":"2020","journal-title":"Math. Biosci."},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"31","DOI":"10.1124\/jpet.122.001561","article-title":"Optimizing IFN alpha therapy against myeloproliferative neoplasms","volume":"386","author":"Hermange","year":"2023","journal-title":"J. Pharmacol. Exp. Ther."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0020","series-title":"Bayesian Data Analysis","article-title":"Hierarchical models","author":"Gelman","year":"2021"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0021","series-title":"Bayesian Data Analysis","first-page":"24","article-title":"Probability and inference","author":"Gelman","year":"2021"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0022","unstructured":"DALIAH - EU clinical trials register, https:\/\/www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu\/ctr-search\/trial\/2011-001919-31\/DK."},{"issue":"7","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2107","DOI":"10.1182\/bloodadvances.2021004856","article-title":"Genomic profiling of a randomized trial of interferon-\u03b1 vs hydroxyurea in MPN reveals mutation-specific responses","volume":"6","author":"Knudsen","year":"2022","journal-title":"Blood Adv."},{"issue":"Supplement 1","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1182\/blood-2023-173127","article-title":"Final analysis of the daliah trial: a randomized phase III trial of interferon-\u03b1 versus hydroxyurea in patients with MPN","volume":"142","author":"Knudsen","year":"2023","journal-title":"Blood"},{"issue":"18","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3692","DOI":"10.1182\/blood-2012-05-432989","article-title":"Depletion of Jak2V617F myeloproliferative neoplasm-propagating stem cells by interferon-\u03b1 in a murine model of polycythemia vera","volume":"121","author":"Mullally","year":"2013","journal-title":"Blood"},{"issue":"7240","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"904","DOI":"10.1038\/nature07815","article-title":"IFN\u03b1 activates dormant haematopoietic stem cells in vivo","volume":"458","author":"Essers","year":"2009","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0027","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"145","DOI":"10.1089\/jir.2012.0120","article-title":"Biological rationale and clinical use of interferon in the classical BCR-ABL-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms","volume":"33","author":"Stein","year":"2013","journal-title":"J. Interferon Cytokine Res."},{"issue":"94","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2014.0079","article-title":"Clonal selection and therapy resistance in acute leukaemias: mathematical modelling explains different proliferation patterns at diagnosis and relapse","volume":"11","author":"Stiehl","year":"2014","journal-title":"J. R. Soc. Interface"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"112","DOI":"10.1016\/j.coisb.2017.09.006","article-title":"Stem cell self-renewal in regeneration and cancer: insights from mathematical modeling","volume":"5","author":"Stiehl","year":"2017","journal-title":"Curr. Opin. Syst. Biol."},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1186\/s13062-016-0154-1","article-title":"Emergence of heterogeneity in acute leukemias","volume":"11","author":"Stiehl","year":"2016","journal-title":"Biol. Direct"},{"issue":"3","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"260","DOI":"10.1093\/stmcls\/sxac079","article-title":"HSC niche dynamics in regeneration, pre-malignancy, and cancer: insights from mathematical modeling","volume":"41","author":"Pedersen","year":"2023","journal-title":"Stem Cells"},{"issue":"3","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"377","DOI":"10.1089\/scd.2008.0143","article-title":"Modeling of asymmetric cell division in hematopoietic stem cells\u2013regulation of self-renewal is essential for efficient repopulation","volume":"18","author":"Marciniak-Czochra","year":"2009","journal-title":"Stem Cells Dev."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0033","unstructured":"European Medicines Agency, Pegasys : EPAR - product information, 2025, https:\/\/www.ema.europa.eu\/en\/documents\/product-information\/pegasys-epar-product-information_en.pdf."},{"issue":"7724","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"473","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-018-0497-0","article-title":"Population dynamics of normal human blood inferred from somatic mutations","volume":"561","author":"Lee-Six","year":"2018","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"17","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4460","DOI":"10.1182\/blood-2010-08-303537","article-title":"The replication rate of human hematopoietic stem cells in vivo","volume":"117","author":"Catlin","year":"2011","journal-title":"Blood"},{"issue":"12","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0036","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1100","DOI":"10.1016\/j.it.2021.10.006","article-title":"Hematopoiesis in numbers","volume":"42","author":"Cosgrove","year":"2021","journal-title":"Trends Immunol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0037","series-title":"Proceedings of the Twenty-First International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics","first-page":"1682","article-title":"Turing: a language for flexible probabilistic inference","author":"Ge","year":"2018"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0038","unstructured":"Turing, 2024, https:\/\/turinglang.org\/."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0039","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1145\/3711897","article-title":"Turing.JL: a general-purpose probabilistic programming language","author":"Fjelde","year":"2025","journal-title":"ACM Trans. Probabilistic Mach. Learn."},{"issue":"3","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0040","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"515","DOI":"10.1214\/06-BA117A","article-title":"Prior distributions for variance parameters in hierarchical models (comment on article by Browne and Draper)","volume":"1","author":"Gelman","year":"2006","journal-title":"Bayesian Anal."},{"issue":"6","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0041","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"423","DOI":"10.1007\/s11096-005-1319-7","article-title":"Side effects of interferon-\u03b1 therapy","volume":"27","author":"Sleijfer","year":"2005","journal-title":"Pharm. World Sci."},{"issue":"13","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0042","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2704","DOI":"10.1182\/blood-2012-05-431791","article-title":"JAK2V617F homozygosity arises commonly and recurrently in PV and ET, but PV is characterized by expansion of a dominant homozygous subclone","volume":"120","author":"Godfrey","year":"2012","journal-title":"Blood"},{"issue":"8","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0043","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2100","DOI":"10.3390\/cancers12082100","article-title":"Clonal hematopoiesis and mutations of myeloproliferative neoplasms","volume":"12","author":"Kj\u00e6r","year":"2020","journal-title":"Cancers"},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0044","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"460","DOI":"10.1038\/leu.2013.303","article-title":"Use of the 46\/1 haplotype to model JAK2V617F clonal architecture in PV patients: clonal evolution and impact of IFN\u03b1 treatment","volume":"28","author":"Hasan","year":"2014","journal-title":"Leukemia"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785_bib0045","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2210-10-6","article-title":"An evaluation of R2 as an inadequate measure for nonlinear models in pharmacological and biochemical research: a Monte Carlo approach","volume":"10","author":"Spiess","year":"2010","journal-title":"BMC Pharmacol."}],"container-title":["Mathematical Biosciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S0025556426001756?httpAccept=text\/xml","content-type":"text\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S0025556426001756?httpAccept=text\/plain","content-type":"text\/plain","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,8]],"date-time":"2026-09-08T08:43:10Z","timestamp":1788856990000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/linkinghub.elsevier.com\/retrieve\/pii\/S0025556426001756"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,11]]},"references-count":45,"alternative-id":["S0025556426001756"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785","relation":{},"ISSN":["0025-5564"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0025-5564","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,11]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Elsevier","name":"publisher","label":"This article is maintained by"},{"value":"Hierarchical mathematical modelling of patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms captures interferon-\u03b1 treatment responses and allows for personalised and population predictions","name":"articletitle","label":"Article Title"},{"value":"Mathematical Biosciences","name":"journaltitle","label":"Journal Title"},{"value":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.mbs.2026.109785","name":"articlelink","label":"CrossRef DOI link to publisher maintained version"},{"value":"article","name":"content_type","label":"Content Type"},{"value":"\u00a9 2026 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc.","name":"copyright","label":"Copyright"}],"article-number":"109785"}}