{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,18]],"date-time":"2026-09-18T15:02:35Z","timestamp":1789743755951,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,1]],"date-time":"2026-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1780272000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/tdm\/userlicense\/1.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,1]],"date-time":"2026-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1780272000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/legal\/tdmrep-license"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,5]],"date-time":"2026-01-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767571200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012166","name":"National Key Research and Development Program of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2022YFF0802400"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2022YFF0802400"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012166","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["clinicalkey.com","clinicalkey.com.au","clinicalkey.jp","elsevier.com","sciencedirect.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["One Health"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]},"DOI":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,7]],"date-time":"2026-01-07T08:18:16Z","timestamp":1767773896000},"page":"101322","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/elsevier_cm_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"special_numbering":"C","title":["Integrated region-specific modeling of H5 avian influenza in Asia using ENSO-based forecasts"],"prefix":"10.1016","volume":"22","author":[{"given":"Yinghui","family":"Su","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ruoxuan","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Pengfei","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhichao","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Juan","family":"Pu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lu","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","reference":[{"key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0005","author":"World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH)"},{"issue":"S1","key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"269","DOI":"10.4142\/jvs.2017.18.S1.269","article-title":"Evolution, global spread, and pathogenicity of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4","volume":"18","author":"Lee","year":"2017","journal-title":"J Vet Sci."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ebiom.2025.105632","article-title":"Large-scale computational modelling of H5 influenza variants against HA1-neutralising antibodies","volume":"114","author":"Ford","year":"2025","journal-title":"EBioMedicine"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0020","author":"World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH)"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"58","DOI":"10.1038\/s41421-023-00571-x","article-title":"Potential cross-species transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 subtype (HPAI H5) viruses to humans calls for the development of H5-specific and universal influenza vaccines","volume":"9","author":"Huang","year":"2023","journal-title":"Cell Discov."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0030","author":"Business Insider"},{"issue":"6","key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1403","DOI":"10.3390\/v15061403","article-title":"Genetic Characterization and Pathogenesis of H5N1 High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus Isolated in South Korea during 2021\u20132022","volume":"15","author":"Cha","year":"2023","journal-title":"Viruses"},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0040","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.3390\/v13020212","article-title":"Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses at the wild-domestic bird interface in Europe: future directions for research and surveillance","volume":"13","author":"Verhagen","year":"2021","journal-title":"Viruses"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0045","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1186\/s12917-021-03010-9","article-title":"Rainfall driven and wild-bird mediated avian influenza virus outbreaks in Australian poultry","volume":"17","author":"Ferenczi","year":"2021","journal-title":"BMC Vet Res"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0050","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1038\/srep18610","article-title":"Identification of climate factors related to human infection with avian influenza A H7N9 and H5N1 viruses in China","volume":"5","author":"Li","year":"2015","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"issue":"3","key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0055","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1601","DOI":"10.1111\/tbed.13831","article-title":"Temporal dynamics and the influence of environmental variables on the prevalence of avian influenza virus in main wetlands in central Chile","volume":"68","author":"Ruiz","year":"2021","journal-title":"Transbound Emerg Dis"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0060","unstructured":"Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M. Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2014:235\u2013336."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0065","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2025.101047","article-title":"Detection and prevalence of avian influenza epidemic in the southwest of Poyang Lake and analysis of the influence of meteorological factors","volume":"20","author":"Fang","year":"2025","journal-title":"One Health"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0070","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1055","DOI":"10.1007\/s10654-004-2450-9","article-title":"Association of influenza epidemics with global climate variability","volume":"19","author":"Viboud","year":"2004","journal-title":"Eur J Epidemiol"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0075","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.5210\/ojphi.v11i1.9834","article-title":"Effects of the El Ni\u00f1o Southern Oscillation on Influenza Peak Activity Timing","volume":"11","author":"Chun","year":"2019","journal-title":"Online J Public Health Inform"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0080","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"386","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2021.04.030","article-title":"Spatial and temporal analysis of human infection with the avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in China and research on a risk assessment agent-based model","volume":"106","author":"Huang","year":"2021","journal-title":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases"},{"issue":"4","key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0085","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2104.141415","article-title":"Global avian influenza surveillance in wild birds: a strategy to capture viral diversity","volume":"21","author":"Machalaba","year":"2015","journal-title":"Emerg Infect Dis."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0090","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-021-03284-x","article-title":"Dynamics of inter-farm transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N6 integrating vehicle movements and phylogenetic information","volume":"11","author":"Yoo","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0095","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0053362","article-title":"Different environmental drivers of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 outbreaks in poultry and wild birds","volume":"8","author":"Si","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"issue":"6","key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0100","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0039423","article-title":"Model selection in time series studies of influenza-associated mortality","volume":"7","author":"Wang","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0105","first-page":"1","article-title":"Identification of high risk areas for avian influenza outbreaks in the United States using spatio-temporal kernel density estimation","volume":"8","author":"Belkhiria","year":"2018","journal-title":"Scientific Reports"},{"issue":"6","key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0110","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0098471","article-title":"Modeling and roles of meteorological factors in outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1","volume":"9","author":"Biswas","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"3","key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0115","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0032729","article-title":"Environmental and demographic determinants of avian influenza viruses in waterfowl across the contiguous United States","volume":"7","author":"Farnsworth","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0120","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2023.100655","article-title":"The role of vaccination and environmental factors on outbreaks of high pathogenicity avian influenza H5N1 in Bangladesh","volume":"17","author":"Islam","year":"2023","journal-title":"One Health"},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0125","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0000191","article-title":"Temperature drops and the onset of severe avian influenza A H5N1 virus outbreaks","volume":"2","author":"Liu","year":"2007","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0130","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2014.08.005","article-title":"Climate change suggests a shift of H5N1 risk in migratory birds","volume":"306","author":"Tian","year":"2015","journal-title":"Ecological Modelling"},{"issue":"5","key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0135","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0002268","article-title":"Environmental factors contributing to the spread of H5N1 avian influenza in mainland China","volume":"3","author":"Fang","year":"2008","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0140","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"575","DOI":"10.2151\/jmsj.79.575","article-title":"Impact of the preceding El Ni\u00f1o on the East Asian summer atmosphere circulation","volume":"79","author":"Wang","year":"2001","journal-title":"J Meteorol Soc Japan"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0145","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"744","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2486.2008.01733.x","article-title":"Cross-scale environmental influences on migratory stopover behavior","volume":"15","author":"Calvert","year":"2009","journal-title":"Glob Change Biol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0150","series-title":"Effects of climate change on birds","first-page":"89","article-title":"Changes in migration","author":"Lehikoinen","year":"2010"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0155","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"133","DOI":"10.3354\/cr01172","article-title":"Changes in autumn arrival of long-distance migratory birds in Southeast Asia","volume":"57","author":"Harris","year":"2013","journal-title":"Clim Res"},{"issue":"Suppl. 1","key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0160","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3689","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1107485109","article-title":"The El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-pandemic influenza connection: coincident or causal?","volume":"110","author":"Shaman","year":"2013","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"issue":"22","key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0165","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"9177","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1220815110","article-title":"Interventions for avian influenza A (H5N1) risk management in live bird market networks","volume":"110","author":"Fourni\u00e9","year":"2013","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322_bb0170","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1038\/ncomms5116","article-title":"Predicting the risk of avian influenza A H7N9 infection in live-poultry markets across Asia","volume":"5","author":"Gilbert","year":"2014","journal-title":"Nat Commun"}],"container-title":["One Health"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S2352771426000066?httpAccept=text\/xml","content-type":"text\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S2352771426000066?httpAccept=text\/plain","content-type":"text\/plain","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,18]],"date-time":"2026-09-18T14:04:30Z","timestamp":1789740270000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/linkinghub.elsevier.com\/retrieve\/pii\/S2352771426000066"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]},"references-count":34,"alternative-id":["S2352771426000066"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322","relation":{},"ISSN":["2352-7714"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2352-7714","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Elsevier","name":"publisher","label":"This article is maintained by"},{"value":"Integrated region-specific modeling of H5 avian influenza in Asia using ENSO-based forecasts","name":"articletitle","label":"Article Title"},{"value":"One Health","name":"journaltitle","label":"Journal Title"},{"value":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.onehlt.2026.101322","name":"articlelink","label":"CrossRef DOI link to publisher maintained version"},{"value":"article","name":"content_type","label":"Content Type"},{"value":"\u00a9 2026 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.","name":"copyright","label":"Copyright"}],"article-number":"101322"}}