{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,9]],"date-time":"2026-05-09T17:09:16Z","timestamp":1778346556915,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":55,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,1]],"date-time":"2026-05-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1777593600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/tdm\/userlicense\/1.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,1]],"date-time":"2026-05-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1777593600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/legal\/tdmrep-license"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2028,4,15]],"date-time":"2028-04-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1839369600000},"content-version":"am","delay-in-days":715,"URL":"http:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/open-access\/userlicense\/1.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,1]],"date-time":"2026-05-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1777593600000},"content-version":"stm-asf","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15223\/policy-017"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,1]],"date-time":"2026-05-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1777593600000},"content-version":"stm-asf","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15223\/policy-037"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,1]],"date-time":"2026-05-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1777593600000},"content-version":"stm-asf","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15223\/policy-012"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,1]],"date-time":"2026-05-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1777593600000},"content-version":"stm-asf","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15223\/policy-029"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,1]],"date-time":"2026-05-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1777593600000},"content-version":"stm-asf","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15223\/policy-004"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001691","name":"Japan Society for the Promotion of Science","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["24K23680"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["24K23680"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001691","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001691","name":"Japan Society for the Promotion of Science","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["25K20622"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["25K20622"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001691","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["elsevier.com","sciencedirect.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Science of The Total Environment"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,5]]},"DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,15]],"date-time":"2026-04-15T05:02:38Z","timestamp":1776229358000},"page":"181794","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/elsevier_cm_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"special_numbering":"C","title":["The burden of hand, foot, and mouth disease attributable to climate variability: A nationwide time-series modeling study in Japan"],"prefix":"10.1016","volume":"1030","author":[{"given":"Keita","family":"Wagatsuma","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"78","reference":[{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1186\/s12940-016-0102-7","article-title":"Changes in population susceptibility to heat and cold over time: assessing adaptation to climate change","volume":"15","author":"Arbuthnott","year":"2016","journal-title":"Environ. Health"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2019.136103","article-title":"The spatial heterogeneity of the associations between relative humidity and pediatric hand, foot and mouth disease: evidence from a nation-wide multicity study from mainland China","volume":"707","author":"Bo","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(80)92666-5","article-title":"The weather and deaths from pneumonia","author":"Bull","year":"1980","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0020","author":"CAO"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/s00484-013-0764-6","article-title":"Short-term effects of meteorological factors on children hand, foot and mouth disease in Guangzhou, China","volume":"58","author":"Chen","year":"2014","journal-title":"Int. J. Biometeorol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0030","article-title":"Influence of temperature and humidity on hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guangzhou, 2013\u20132017","volume":"48","author":"Chen","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Int. Med. Res."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2018.01.006","article-title":"Ambient temperature, humidity and hand, foot, and mouth disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis","author":"Cheng","year":"2018","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0040","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2019.134727","article-title":"Latitudes mediate the association between influenza activity and meteorological factors: a nationwide modelling analysis in 45 Japanese prefectures from 2000 to 2018","volume":"703","author":"Chong","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0045","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1111\/ijd.14188","article-title":"Temperature and humidity affect the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease: a systematic review of the literature \u2013 a report from the International Society of Dermatology Climate Change Committee","author":"Coates","year":"2019","journal-title":"Int. J. Dermatol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0050","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/s11356-020-09878-8","article-title":"Association between diurnal temperature range and outpatient visits for hand, foot, and mouth disease in Hefei, China: a distributed lag nonlinear analysis","volume":"27","author":"Deng","year":"2020","journal-title":"Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0055","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268818003035","article-title":"Meteorological factors and its association with hand, foot and mouth disease in Southeast and East Asia areas: a meta-analysis","volume":"147","author":"Duan","year":"2019","journal-title":"Epidemiol. Infect."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0060","article-title":"Factors influencing the seasonal patterns of infectious diseases","volume":"4","author":"Fares","year":"2013","journal-title":"Int. J. Prev. Med."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0065","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1128\/MMBR.69.2.357-371.2005","article-title":"Enteric viruses of humans and animals in aquatic environments: health risks, detection, and potential water quality assessment tools","volume":"69","author":"Fong","year":"2005","journal-title":"Microbiol. Mol. Biol. Rev."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0070","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.5963","article-title":"Modeling exposure-lag-response associations with distributed lag non-linear models","volume":"33","author":"Gasparrini","year":"2014","journal-title":"Stat. Med."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0075","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2288-13-1","article-title":"Reducing and meta-analysing estimates from distributed lag non-linear models","volume":"13","author":"Gasparrini","year":"2013","journal-title":"BMC Med. Res. Methodol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0080","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2288-14-55","article-title":"Attributable risk from distributed lag models","volume":"14","author":"Gasparrini","year":"2014","journal-title":"BMC Med. Res. Methodol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0085","author":"GSI"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0090","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envres.2012.09.001","article-title":"Spatiotemporal model or time series model for assessing city-wide temperature effects on mortality?","volume":"120","author":"Guo","year":"2013","journal-title":"Environ. Res."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0095","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-016-1846-y","article-title":"Short-term effects of meteorological factors on pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guangdong, China: a multi-city time-series analysis","volume":"16","author":"Guo","year":"2016","journal-title":"BMC Infect. Dis."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0100","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.3389\/fmicb.2021.811553","article-title":"Surveillance, epidemiology and impact of EV-A71 vaccination on hand, foot, and mouth disease in Nanchang, China, 2010\u20132019","volume":"12","author":"He","year":"2022","journal-title":"Front. Microbiol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0105","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0016796","article-title":"Short term effects of weather on hand, foot and mouth disease","volume":"6","author":"Hii","year":"2011","journal-title":"PloS One"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0110","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2023.01.013","article-title":"Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the epidemiology of other communicable diseases in Japan","volume":"128","author":"Hirae","year":"2023","journal-title":"Int. J. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0115","article-title":"Quantifying the influence of temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in Wuhan, Central China","volume":"8","author":"Huang","year":"2018","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0120","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envres.2015.06.040","article-title":"Time series regression model for infectious disease and weather","volume":"142","author":"Imai","year":"2015","journal-title":"Environ. Res."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0125","author":"IPSS"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0130","author":"JMA"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0140","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1289\/EHP11444","article-title":"Mortality risk of hot nights: a nationwide population-based retrospective study in Japan","volume":"131","author":"Kim","year":"2023","journal-title":"Environ. Health Perspect."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0145","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1097\/INF.0000000000001242","article-title":"The epidemiology of hand, foot and mouth disease in Asia: a systematic review and analysis","author":"Koh","year":"2016","journal-title":"Pediatr. Infect. Dis. J."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0150","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjgh-2017-000442","article-title":"Severity and burden of hand, foot and mouth disease in Asia: a modelling study","volume":"3","author":"Koh","year":"2018","journal-title":"BMJ Glob. Health"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0155","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-020-76421-7","article-title":"The burden of childhood hand-foot-mouth disease morbidity attributable to relative humidity: a multicity study in the Sichuan Basin, China","volume":"10","author":"Luo","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0160","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1753-6405.1993.tb00102.x","article-title":"An outbreak of Norwalk-like gastroenteritis associated with contaminated drinking water at a caravan park","volume":"17","author":"McAnulty","year":"1993","journal-title":"Aust. J. Public Health"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0165","author":"MEXT"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0170","author":"MHLW"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0175","author":"MIC"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0180","author":"NIID"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0185","first-page":"410","article-title":"The influence of temperature and humidity on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Japan","author":"Onozuka","year":"2011","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0190","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyab216","article-title":"Reduced mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020: a two-stage interrupted time-series design","volume":"51","author":"Onozuka","year":"2022","journal-title":"Int. J. Epidemiol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0195","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1289\/EHP9943","article-title":"Ambient temperature and external causes of death in Japan from 1979 to 2015: a time-stratified case-crossover analysis","volume":"130","author":"Pan","year":"2022","journal-title":"Environ. Health Perspect."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0200","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1186\/s40249-018-0388-5","article-title":"Impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of childhood hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) analyzed by DLNMs-based time series approach","volume":"7","author":"Qi","year":"2018","journal-title":"Infect. Dis. Poverty"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0205","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2020.138548","article-title":"Quantifying the risk of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) attributable to meteorological factors in East China: a time series modelling study","volume":"728","author":"Qi","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0210","article-title":"Enteroviruses in water environment - a potential threat to public health","volume":"15","author":"Rajtar","year":"2008","journal-title":"Ann. Agric. Environ. Med."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0215","article-title":"Extended two-stage designs for environmental research","volume":"21","author":"Sera","year":"2022","journal-title":"Environ. Health"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0220","series-title":"Report for the World Health Organization. Geneva, Switzerland","article-title":"Virus survival in the environment with special attention to survival in sewage droplets and other environmental media of fecal or respiratory origin","author":"Sobsey","year":"2003"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0225","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.2188\/jea.17.S3","article-title":"Overview of infectious disease surveillance system in Japan, 1999-2005","author":"Taniguchi","year":"2007","journal-title":"J. Epidemiol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0230","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.7883\/yoken.JJID.2003.48","article-title":"Seasonal models of herpangina and hand-foot-mouth disease to simulate annual fluctuations in urban warming in Tokyo","volume":"56","author":"Urashima","year":"2003","journal-title":"Jpn. J. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0235","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.clindermatol.2014.12.011","article-title":"Update on hand-foot-and-mouth disease","volume":"33","author":"Ventarola","year":"2015","journal-title":"Clin. Dermatol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0240","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-021-06461-5","article-title":"Decreased human respiratory syncytial virus activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: an ecological time-series analysis","volume":"21","author":"Wagatsuma","year":"2021","journal-title":"BMC Infect. Dis."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0245","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envint.2016.11.021","article-title":"The exposure-response relationship between temperature and childhood hand, foot and mouth disease: a multicity study from mainland China","volume":"100","author":"Xiao","year":"2017","journal-title":"Environ. Int."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0250","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(13)70342-6","article-title":"Hand, foot, and mouth disease in China, 2008-12: an epidemiological study","volume":"14","author":"Xing","year":"2014","journal-title":"Lancet Infect. Dis."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0255","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-023-16240-3","article-title":"Spatial distribution and driving factors of the associations between temperature and influenza-like illness in the United States: a time-stratified case-crossover study","volume":"23","author":"Yang","year":"2023","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0260","article-title":"The association between ambient temperature and childhood hand, foot, and mouth disease in Chengdu, China: a distributed lag non-linear analysis","volume":"6","author":"Yin","year":"2016","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0265","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-019-7329-5","article-title":"The epidemic characteristics and spatial autocorrelation analysis of hand, foot and mouth disease from 2010 to 2015 in Shantou, Guangdong, China","volume":"19","author":"Zhang","year":"2019","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0270","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2018.10.349","article-title":"Short-term effects of extreme meteorological factors on childhood hand, foot, and mouth disease reinfection in Hefei, China: a distributed lag non-linear analysis","volume":"653","author":"Zhang","year":"2019","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0275","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1038\/s41370-021-00291-y","article-title":"Daily mean temperature and HFMD: risk assessment and attributable fraction identification in Ningbo China","volume":"31","author":"Zhang","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Expo. Sci. Environ. Epidemiol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794_bb0280","first-page":"551","article-title":"Assessment of temperature effect on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease incidence (0-years) and associated effect modifiers: a 17 cities study in Shandong Province, China, 2007-2012","author":"Zhu","year":"2016","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."}],"container-title":["Science of The Total Environment"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S0048969726004584?httpAccept=text\/xml","content-type":"text\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S0048969726004584?httpAccept=text\/plain","content-type":"text\/plain","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,9]],"date-time":"2026-05-09T16:19:30Z","timestamp":1778343570000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/linkinghub.elsevier.com\/retrieve\/pii\/S0048969726004584"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,5]]},"references-count":55,"alternative-id":["S0048969726004584"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794","relation":{},"ISSN":["0048-9697"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0048-9697","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,5]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Elsevier","name":"publisher","label":"This article is maintained by"},{"value":"The burden of hand, foot, and mouth disease attributable to climate variability: A nationwide time-series modeling study in Japan","name":"articletitle","label":"Article Title"},{"value":"Science of The Total Environment","name":"journaltitle","label":"Journal Title"},{"value":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2026.181794","name":"articlelink","label":"CrossRef DOI link to publisher maintained version"},{"value":"article","name":"content_type","label":"Content Type"},{"value":"\u00a9 2026 Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.","name":"copyright","label":"Copyright"}],"article-number":"181794"}}