{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,1]],"date-time":"2026-04-01T16:33:24Z","timestamp":1775061204105,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":36,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,8,1]],"date-time":"2016-08-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1470009600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/tdm\/userlicense\/1.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,4,12]],"date-time":"2016-04-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1460419200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["elsevier.com","sciencedirect.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,8]]},"DOI":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,4,14]],"date-time":"2016-04-14T21:57:23Z","timestamp":1460671043000},"page":"53-62","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/elsevier_cm_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":18,"special_numbering":"C","title":["How robust are the estimated effects of air pollution on health? Accounting for model uncertainty using Bayesian model averaging"],"prefix":"10.1016","volume":"18","author":[{"given":"Francesca","family":"Pannullo","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Duncan","family":"Lee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Eugene","family":"Waclawski","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3741-7099","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alastair H.","family":"Leyland","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"78","reference":[{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"176","DOI":"10.1007\/s13253-009-0004-z","article-title":"A spatio-temporal downscaler for output from numerical models","volume":"15","author":"Berrocal","year":"2010","journal-title":"J Agric Biol Environ Stat"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00116466","article-title":"Bayesian image-restoration, with 2 applications in spatial statistics","volume":"43","author":"Besag","year":"1991","journal-title":"Ann Inst Stat Math"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0003","article-title":"Long term exposure to ambient air pollution and incidence of acute coronary events: prospective cohort study and meta-analysis in 11 European cohorts from the ESCAPE project","volume":"348","author":"Cesaroni","year":"2014","journal-title":"BMJ (Clin Res Ed)"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1193","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/22.6.1193","article-title":"Spatial correlation in ecological analysis","volume":"22","author":"Clayton","year":"1993","journal-title":"Int J Epidemiol"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0006","unstructured":"Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Air quality plans for the achievement of EU air quality limit values for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in the UK. 2015. URL: https:\/\/uk-air.defra.gov.uk\/library\/no2ten\/. [accessed 01.11.15]."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1088","DOI":"10.1136\/thx.2006.076851","article-title":"Long-term associations of outdoor air pollution with mortality in Great Britain","volume":"62","author":"Elliott","year":"2007","journal-title":"Thorax"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"36","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0006-341X.2005.030821.x","article-title":"Model evaluation and spatial interpolation by Bayesian combination of observations with outputs from numerical models","volume":"61","author":"Fuentes","year":"2005","journal-title":"Biometrics"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"123","DOI":"10.1016\/j.sste.2010.03.006","article-title":"Inference from ecological models: estimating the relative risk of stroke from air pollution exposure using small area data","volume":"1","author":"Haining","year":"2010","journal-title":"Spat Spat Tempor Epidemiol"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0010","first-page":"382","article-title":"Bayesian model averaging: a tutorial","volume":"14","author":"Hoeting","year":"1999","journal-title":"Stat Sci"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.sste.2015.09.002","article-title":"An integrated Bayesian model for estimating the long-term health effects of air pollution by fusing modelled and measured pollution data: A case study of nitrogen dioxide concentrations in Scotland","author":"Huang","year":"2015","journal-title":"Spat Spat Tempor Epidemiol"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0012","unstructured":"Hughes J., Cui X. ngspatial: Fitting the centered autologistic and sparse spatial generalized linear mixed models for areal data. 2015.R package version 1.0\u20135. Minneapolis, MN"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_sbref0011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"139","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9868.2012.01041.x","article-title":"Dimension reduction and alleviation of confounding for spatial generalized linear mixed models","volume":"75","author":"Hughes","year":"2013","journal-title":"J R Stat Soc Ser B"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"665","DOI":"10.1136\/jech.2006.053611","article-title":"Effect of socioeconomic status on the relationship between atmospheric pollution and mortality","volume":"61","author":"Laurent","year":"2007","journal-title":"J Epidemiol Commun Health"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"417","DOI":"10.1007\/s13253-012-0100-3","article-title":"Bayesian 2-stage space-time mixture modeling with spatial misalignment of the exposure in small area health data","volume":"17","author":"Lawson","year":"2012","journal-title":"J Agric Biol Environ Stat"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"79","DOI":"10.1016\/j.sste.2011.03.001","article-title":"A comparison of conditional autoregressive models used in Bayesian disease mapping","volume":"2","author":"Lee","year":"2011","journal-title":"Spat Spat Tempor Epidemiol"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_sbref0015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v055.i13","article-title":"CARBayes: An R package for Bayesian spatial modeling with conditional autoregressive priors","volume":"55","author":"Lee","year":"2013","journal-title":"J Stat Softw"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"409","DOI":"10.1093\/biostatistics\/kxp010","article-title":"Air pollution and health in Scotland: a multicity study","volume":"10","author":"Lee","year":"2009","journal-title":"Biostatistics"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"419","DOI":"10.1111\/biom.12156","article-title":"A Bayesian localized conditional autoregressive model for estimating the health effects of air pollution","volume":"70","author":"Lee","year":"2014","journal-title":"Biometrics"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1002\/env.2348","article-title":"Controlling for unmeasured confounding and spatial misalignment in long-term air pollution and health studies","author":"Lee","year":"2015","journal-title":"Environmetrics"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0021","series-title":"Estimation of disease rates in small areas: a new mixed model for spatial dependence","first-page":"135","article-title":"Statistical models in epidemiology, the environment and clinical trials","author":"Leroux","year":"1999"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1655","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(96)07226-1","article-title":"Socioeconomic inequalities in morbidity and mortality in Western Europe. The EU working group on socioeconomic inequalities in health","volume":"349","author":"Mackenbach","year":"1997","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"239","DOI":"10.1161\/01.STR.0000151363.71221.12","article-title":"Outdoor air pollution and stroke in Sheffield, United Kingdom: a small-area level geographical study","volume":"36","author":"Maheswaran","year":"2005","journal-title":"Stroke"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"22","DOI":"10.1161\/STROKEAHA.110.610238","article-title":"Outdoor air pollution and incidence of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke: a small-area level ecological study","volume":"43","author":"Maheswaran","year":"2012","journal-title":"Stroke"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1002\/env.984","article-title":"Combining numerical model output and particulate data using Bayesian space-time modeling","author":"McMillan","year":"2009","journal-title":"Environmetrics"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0009","unstructured":"Ministry of Public Health, Mortality and morbidity during the London Smog of December 1952, 95, Her Majesty\u2019s Stationery Office; 1954."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"17","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/37.1-2.17","article-title":"Notes on continuous stochastic phenomena","volume":"37","author":"Moran","year":"1950","journal-title":"Biometrika"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0028","first-page":"107","article-title":"The importance of scale for spatial-confounding bias and precision of spatial regression estimators","volume":"25","author":"Paciorek","year":"2010","journal-title":"Stat Sci Rev J Inst Math Stat"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"227","DOI":"10.1016\/j.atmosenv.2015.08.009","article-title":"Improving spatial nitrogen dioxide prediction using diffusion tubes: a case study in West Central Scotland","volume":"118","author":"Pannullo","year":"2015","journal-title":"Atmos Environ"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"111","DOI":"10.2307\/271063","article-title":"Bayesian model selection in social research","volume":"25","author":"Raftery","year":"1995","journal-title":"Sociol Methodol"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1197","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1541-0420.2006.00617.x","article-title":"Effects of residual smoothing on the posterior of the fixed effects in disease-mapping models","volume":"62","author":"Reich","year":"2006","journal-title":"Biometrics"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"29","DOI":"10.1016\/j.sste.2014.05.001","article-title":"A spatio-temporal model for estimating the long-term effects of air pollution on respiratory hospital admissions in Greater London","volume":"10","author":"Rushworth","year":"2014","journal-title":"Spat Spat Tempor Epidemiol"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0034","unstructured":"R Core Team. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing; Vienna, Austria;2015. URL: http:\/\/www.R-project.org\/. [accessed 10.10.15]."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"583","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-9868.00353","article-title":"Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit","volume":"64","author":"Spiegelhalter","year":"2002","journal-title":"J R Stat Soc Ser B Stat Methodol"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"257","DOI":"10.4081\/gh.2009.225","article-title":"Long-term exposure to gaseous air pollutants and cardio-respiratory mortality in Brisbane, Australia","volume":"3","author":"Wang","year":"2009","journal-title":"Geospatial Health"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0036","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"227","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2458-12-227","article-title":"Cardiovascular disease and air pollution in Scotland: no association or insufficient data and study design?","volume":"12","author":"Willocks","year":"2012","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001_bib0027","unstructured":"World Health Organisation Ambient (outdoor) air quality and health: Fact sheet 313. 2014. URL: http:\/\/www.who.int\/mediacentre\/factsheets\/fs313\/en\/ [accessed 16.10.15]."}],"container-title":["Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S1877584515300289?httpAccept=text\/xml","content-type":"text\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S1877584515300289?httpAccept=text\/plain","content-type":"text\/plain","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2018,9,13]],"date-time":"2018-09-13T05:53:41Z","timestamp":1536818021000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/linkinghub.elsevier.com\/retrieve\/pii\/S1877584515300289"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2016,8]]},"references-count":36,"alternative-id":["S1877584515300289"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001","relation":{},"ISSN":["1877-5845"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1877-5845","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2016,8]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Elsevier","name":"publisher","label":"This article is maintained by"},{"value":"How robust are the estimated effects of air pollution on health? Accounting for model uncertainty using Bayesian model averaging","name":"articletitle","label":"Article Title"},{"value":"Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology","name":"journaltitle","label":"Journal Title"},{"value":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.sste.2016.04.001","name":"articlelink","label":"CrossRef DOI link to publisher maintained version"},{"value":"article","name":"content_type","label":"Content Type"},{"value":"\u00a9 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.","name":"copyright","label":"Copyright"}]}}