{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,17]],"date-time":"2026-08-17T20:05:28Z","timestamp":1786997128397,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":50,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,6,1]],"date-time":"2022-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1654041600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/tdm\/userlicense\/1.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,6,1]],"date-time":"2022-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1654041600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/legal\/tdmrep-license"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,6,29]],"date-time":"2020-06-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1593388800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["elsevier.com","sciencedirect.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,6]]},"DOI":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,4]],"date-time":"2020-07-04T07:39:43Z","timestamp":1593848383000},"page":"100357","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/elsevier_cm_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"special_numbering":"C","title":["Improving disaggregation models of malaria incidence by ensembling non-linear models of prevalence"],"prefix":"10.1016","volume":"41","author":[{"given":"Tim C.D.","family":"Lucas","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anita K.","family":"Nandi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Suzanne H.","family":"Keddie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Elisabeth G.","family":"Chestnutt","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rosalind E.","family":"Howes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Susan F.","family":"Rumisha","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rohan","family":"Arambepola","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Amelia","family":"Bertozzi-Villa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Andre","family":"Python","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tasmin L.","family":"Symons","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Justin J.","family":"Millar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Punam","family":"Amratia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Penelope","family":"Hancock","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Katherine E.","family":"Battle","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ewan","family":"Cameron","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Peter W.","family":"Gething","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Daniel J.","family":"Weiss","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","reference":[{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-015-1048-x","article-title":"Treatment-seeking rates in malaria endemic countries","volume":"15","author":"Battle","year":"2016","journal-title":"Malar. J."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(19)31096-7","article-title":"Mapping the global endemicity and clinical burden of Plasmodium vivax, 2000\u201317: a spatial and temporal modelling study","volume":"394","author":"Battle","year":"2019","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"134","key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20170520","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2017.0520","article-title":"Improved prediction accuracy for disease risk mapping using Gaussian process stacked generalization","volume":"14","author":"Bhatt","year":"2017","journal-title":"J. R. Soc. Interface"},{"issue":"7572","key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"207","DOI":"10.1038\/nature15535","article-title":"The effect of malaria control on Plasmodium falciparum in Africa between 2000 and 2015","volume":"526","author":"Bhatt","year":"2015","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"123","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1018054314350","article-title":"Bagging predictors","volume":"24","author":"Breiman","year":"1996","journal-title":"Mach. Learn."},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"49","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1018046112532","article-title":"Stacked regressions","volume":"24","author":"Breiman","year":"1996","journal-title":"Mach. Learn."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1038\/ncomms9170","article-title":"Defining the relationship between infection prevalence and clinical incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria","volume":"6","author":"Cameron","year":"2015","journal-title":"Nat. Commun."},{"issue":"12","key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1001142","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001142","article-title":"Worldwide incidence of malaria in 2009: estimates, time trends, and a critique of methods","volume":"8","author":"Cibulskis","year":"2011","journal-title":"PLoS Med."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0009","unstructured":"Colombian National Institute of Health, 2016. Sistema Nacional de Vigilancia en Salud P\u00fablica. online data resource."},{"issue":"376","key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"817","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1981.10477729","article-title":"Projection pursuit regression","volume":"76","author":"Friedman","year":"1981","journal-title":"J. Am. Stat. Assoc."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0011","first-page":"1","article-title":"Constructing priors that penalize the complexity of Gaussian random fields","author":"Fuglstad","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Am. Stat. Assoc."},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e55882","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0055882","article-title":"High resolution population distribution maps for Southeast Asia in 2010 and 2015","volume":"8","author":"Gaughan","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"92","DOI":"10.1186\/1756-3305-4-92","article-title":"Modelling the global constraints of temperature on transmission of plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax","volume":"4","author":"Gething","year":"2011","journal-title":"Parasites Vectors"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"17","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-6-17","article-title":"Assembling a global database of malaria parasite prevalence for the malaria atlas project","volume":"6","author":"Guerra","year":"2007","journal-title":"Malar. J."},{"issue":"5","key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"839","DOI":"10.1111\/ddi.12892","article-title":"A review of evidence about use and performance of species distribution modelling ensembles like biomod","volume":"25","author":"Hao","year":"2019","journal-title":"Divers. Distrib."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0016","unstructured":"Indonesia Ministry of Health, 2013. State health reports."},{"issue":"24","key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4871","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.8339","article-title":"A spatially discrete approximation to log-Gaussian Cox processes for modelling aggregated disease count data","volume":"38","author":"Johnson","year":"2019","journal-title":"Stat. Med."},{"issue":"5","key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v070.i05","article-title":"TMB: Automatic differentiation and Laplace approximation","volume":"70","author":"Kristensen","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Stat. Softw."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0019","unstructured":"Kuhn, M., Wing, J., Weston, S., Williams, A., Keefer, C., Engelhardt, A., Cooper, T., Mayer, Z., Kenkel, B., the R Core Team, Benesty, M., Lescarbeau, R., Ziem, A., Scrucca, L., Tang, Y., Candan, C., Hunt., T., 2017. caret: Classification and regression training. R package version 6.0-76."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0020","series-title":"Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems","first-page":"6081","article-title":"Variational learning on aggregate outputs with gaussian processes","author":"Law","year":"2018"},{"issue":"5","key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"479","DOI":"10.1177\/0962280212446326","article-title":"Log Gaussian Cox processes and spatially aggregated disease incidence data","volume":"21","author":"Li","year":"2012","journal-title":"Stat. Methods Med. Res."},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e31743","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0031743","article-title":"Population distribution, settlement patterns and accessibility across Africa in 2010","volume":"7","author":"Linard","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"issue":"19","key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v063.i19","article-title":"Bayesian spatial modelling with R-INLA","volume":"63","author":"Lindgren","year":"2015","journal-title":"J. Stat. Softw."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0024","unstructured":"NASA, 2018. Gridded population of the world (GPW), v4."},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"352","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-018-2500-5","article-title":"malariaAtlas: an R interface to global malariometric data hosted by the Malaria Atlas Project","volume":"17","author":"Pfeffer","year":"2018","journal-title":"Malar. J."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e04395","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.04395","article-title":"Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa","volume":"3","author":"Pigott","year":"2014","journal-title":"Elife"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0027","unstructured":"R Core Team, 2018. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing. Vienna, Austria."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0028","unstructured":"Rakotorahalahy, A. J., 2009. NMCP Madagascar monthly case data 2013\u20132014. Pers. Comms. Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme."},{"issue":"18","key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1703","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.4780121806","article-title":"Conditional independence models for epidemiological studies with covariate measurement error","volume":"12","author":"Richardson","year":"1993","journal-title":"Stat. Med."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0030","unstructured":"Ridgeway et\u00a0al., 2017. gbm: Generalized boosted regression models. R package version 2.1.3."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0031","unstructured":"Senegal Ministry of Health, 2009. Senegal Statistical Yearbook 2009."},{"issue":"8","key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0004915","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0004915","article-title":"Estimating geographical variation in the risk of zoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi infection in countries eliminating malaria","volume":"10","author":"Shearer","year":"2016","journal-title":"PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0033","unstructured":"Sill, J., Tak\u00e1cs, G., Mackey, L., Lin, D., 2009. Feature-weighted linear stacking. arXiv:0911.0460."},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1214\/16-STS576","article-title":"Penalising model component complexity: a principled, practical approach to constructing priors","volume":"32","author":"Simpson","year":"2017","journal-title":"Stat. Sci."},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"131","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-6-131","article-title":"Standardizing estimates of the Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate","volume":"6","author":"Smith","year":"2007","journal-title":"Malar. J."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0036","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"150045","DOI":"10.1038\/sdata.2015.45","article-title":"High-resolution gridded population datasets for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2010, 2015, and 2020","volume":"2","author":"Sorichetta","year":"2015","journal-title":"Sci. Data"},{"issue":"8","key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0037","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"635","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pt.2016.05.001","article-title":"Mapping malaria risk in low transmission settings: challenges and opportunities","volume":"32","author":"Sturrock","year":"2016","journal-title":"Trends Parasitol."},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0038","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"421","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-13-421","article-title":"Fine-scale malaria risk mapping from routine aggregated case data","volume":"13","author":"Sturrock","year":"2014","journal-title":"Malar. J."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0039","article-title":"Continuous inference for aggregated point process data","author":"Taylor","year":"2017","journal-title":"J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. A (Statistics in Society)"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_sbref0031","series-title":"Modern Applied Statistics with S","author":"Venables","year":"2002"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0041","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"72","DOI":"10.1016\/j.spasta.2017.11.006","article-title":"Generalized spatial fusion model framework for joint analysis of point and areal data","volume":"23","author":"Wang","year":"2018","journal-title":"Spat. Stat."},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0042","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"171","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-13-171","article-title":"Air temperature suitability for Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Africa 2000\u20132012: a high-resolution spatiotemporal prediction","volume":"13","author":"Weiss","year":"2014","journal-title":"Malar. J."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0043","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(19)31097-9","article-title":"Mapping the global prevalence, incidence, and mortality of Plasmodium falciparum, 2000\u201317: a spatial and temporal modelling study","volume":"394","author":"Weiss","year":"2019","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"1","key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0044","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"68","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-015-0574-x","article-title":"Re-examining environmental correlates of Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity: a data-intensive variable selection approach","volume":"14","author":"Weiss","year":"2015","journal-title":"Malar. J."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0045","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1038\/nature25181","article-title":"A global map of travel time to cities to assess inequalities in accessibility in 2015","author":"Weiss","year":"2018","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0046","article-title":"Pointless spatial modeling","author":"Wilson","year":"2018","journal-title":"Biostatistics"},{"issue":"2","key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0047","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"241","DOI":"10.1016\/S0893-6080(05)80023-1","article-title":"Stacked generalization","volume":"5","author":"Wolpert","year":"1992","journal-title":"Neural Netw."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0048","series-title":"World Malaria Report 2016","author":"World Health Organization","year":"2016"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0049","article-title":"Ranger: a fast implementation of random forests for high dimensional data in C++ and R","author":"Wright","year":"2015","journal-title":"arXiv preprint arXiv:1508.04409"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357_bib0050","unstructured":"Zou, H., Hastie, T., 2012. elasticnet: Elastic-Net for sparse estimation and sparse PCA. R package version 1.1."}],"updated-by":[{"DOI":"10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100399","type":"erratum","label":"Erratum","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2021,2,1]],"date-time":"2021-02-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1612137600000}}],"container-title":["Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S1877584520300356?httpAccept=text\/xml","content-type":"text\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S1877584520300356?httpAccept=text\/plain","content-type":"text\/plain","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,30]],"date-time":"2025-10-30T05:04:18Z","timestamp":1761800658000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/linkinghub.elsevier.com\/retrieve\/pii\/S1877584520300356"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,6]]},"references-count":50,"alternative-id":["S1877584520300356"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357","relation":{},"ISSN":["1877-5845"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1877-5845","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,6]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Elsevier","name":"publisher","label":"This article is maintained by"},{"value":"Improving disaggregation models of malaria incidence by ensembling non-linear models of prevalence","name":"articletitle","label":"Article Title"},{"value":"Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology","name":"journaltitle","label":"Journal Title"},{"value":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.sste.2020.100357","name":"articlelink","label":"CrossRef DOI link to publisher maintained version"},{"value":"article","name":"content_type","label":"Content Type"},{"value":"\u00a9 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.","name":"copyright","label":"Copyright"}],"article-number":"100357"}}