{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,11]],"date-time":"2026-10-11T20:46:21Z","timestamp":1791751581995,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":67,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2027,1,1]],"date-time":"2027-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1798761600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/tdm\/userlicense\/1.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2027,1,1]],"date-time":"2027-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1798761600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.elsevier.com\/legal\/tdmrep-license"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2027,1,1]],"date-time":"2027-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1798761600000},"content-version":"stm-asf","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15223\/policy-017"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2027,1,1]],"date-time":"2027-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1798761600000},"content-version":"stm-asf","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15223\/policy-037"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2027,1,1]],"date-time":"2027-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1798761600000},"content-version":"stm-asf","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15223\/policy-012"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2027,1,1]],"date-time":"2027-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1798761600000},"content-version":"stm-asf","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15223\/policy-029"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2027,1,1]],"date-time":"2027-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1798761600000},"content-version":"stm-asf","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15223\/policy-004"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["42475025"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["42475025"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["42201040"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["42201040"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["elsevier.com","sciencedirect.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Water Research"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2027,1]]},"DOI":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,1]],"date-time":"2026-10-01T15:38:35Z","timestamp":1790869115000},"page":"127052","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/elsevier_cm_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"special_numbering":"PC","title":["An explainable and causally informed machine learning framework for hydrological drought transitions, propagation, and vulnerability"],"prefix":"10.1016","volume":"308","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0004-5794-8756","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jiwei","family":"Leng","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0927-1267","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kai","family":"Ma","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nguyen Hao","family":"Quang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yun","family":"Luo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yungang","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jie","family":"Cao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Daming","family":"He","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","reference":[{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"42539","DOI":"10.1007\/s11356-022-19718-6","article-title":"A review of the global climate change impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures","volume":"29","author":"Abbass","year":"2022","journal-title":"Env. Sci. Pollut. Res."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1029\/2025EF006795","article-title":"Impacts of meteorological, hydrological, and compound droughts on the precipitation\u2013runoff relationship across timescales","volume":"14","author":"An","year":"2026","journal-title":"Earth\u2019s Future"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1415","DOI":"10.5194\/hess-28-1415-2024","article-title":"On the timescale of drought indices for monitoring streamflow drought considering catchment hydrological regimes","volume":"28","author":"Baez-Villanueva","year":"2024","journal-title":"Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1251","DOI":"10.1175\/JHM-D-11-074.1","article-title":"The 2009\/10 drought in China: possible causes and impacts on vegetation","volume":"13","author":"Barriopedro","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. Hydrometeorol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1045","DOI":"10.1007\/s11269-014-0533-2","article-title":"Drought monitoring using the multivariate standardized precipitation index (MSPI)","volume":"28","author":"Bazrafshan","year":"2014","journal-title":"Water Resour. Manage."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"473","DOI":"10.1175\/BAMS-D-17-0138.1","article-title":"MSWEP V2 global 3-hourly 0.1\u00b0 precipitation: methodology and quantitative assessment","volume":"100","author":"Beck","year":"2019","journal-title":"Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1029\/2023WR035139","article-title":"Explaining the mechanism of multiscale groundwater drought events: a new perspective from interpretable deep learning model","volume":"60","author":"Cai","year":"2024","journal-title":"Water Resour. Res."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1919","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-025-56573-8","article-title":"Artificial intelligence for modeling and understanding extreme weather and climate events","volume":"16","author":"Camps-Valls","year":"2025","journal-title":"Nat. Commun."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.125424","article-title":"Data-driven assessment of nitrogen and phosphorus buffering capacity across 460 Chinese watersheds: spatial patterns, drivers, and future projections","volume":"293","author":"Cao","year":"2026","journal-title":"Water Res."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0010","article-title":"The role of causality in explainable artificial intelligence","volume":"15","author":"Carloni","year":"2025","journal-title":"WIREs Data Min. Knowl. Discov."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"108","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloenvcha.2016.04.012","article-title":"Mapping global patterns of drought risk: an empirical framework based on sub-national estimates of hazard, exposure and vulnerability","volume":"39","author":"Carr\u00e3o","year":"2016","journal-title":"Glob. Environ. Change"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1007\/s11111-019-00322-9","article-title":"Extreme weather and migration: evidence from Bangladesh","volume":"41","author":"Carrico","year":"2019","journal-title":"Popul. Env."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.atmosres.2023.107193","article-title":"Comprehensive propagation characteristics between paired meteorological and hydrological drought events: insights from various underlying surfaces","volume":"299","author":"Chen","year":"2024","journal-title":"Atmos. Res."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0014","article-title":"Propagation of meteorological to agricultural flash droughts using a novel weekly index","volume":"63","author":"Chen","year":"2026","journal-title":"J. Hydrol.: Reg. Stud."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gsf.2024.101815","article-title":"Artificial intelligence: a new era for spatial modelling and interpreting climate-induced hazard assessment","volume":"15","author":"Dikshit","year":"2024","journal-title":"Geosci. Front."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.atmosres.2025.107950","article-title":"Investigating multitype drought propagation thresholds across the different climate regions of China","volume":"316","author":"Ding","year":"2025","journal-title":"Atmos. Res."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"22336","DOI":"10.1007\/s11356-020-08896-w","article-title":"Climatic changes and their role in emergence and re-emergence of diseases","volume":"27","author":"El-Sayed","year":"2020","journal-title":"Env. Sci. Pollut. Res."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"794","DOI":"10.1038\/s43247-025-02759-3","article-title":"Climate change and human activities amplify runoff variability risks in lower reaches of large rivers","volume":"6","author":"Gao","year":"2025","journal-title":"Commun. Earth Env."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1029\/2024EF004841","article-title":"Exploring the spatially compounding multi-sectoral drought vulnerabilities in Colorado\u2019s west slope river basins","volume":"12","author":"Gold","year":"2024","journal-title":"Earth\u2019s Future"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/ab225d","article-title":"Drought vulnerability and risk assessments: state of the art, persistent gaps, and research agenda","volume":"14","author":"Hagenlocher","year":"2019","journal-title":"Env. Res. Lett."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3481","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-11-3481-2018","article-title":"The variable infiltration capacity model version 5 (VIC-5): infrastructure improvements for new applications and reproducibility","volume":"11","author":"Hamman","year":"2018","journal-title":"Geosci. Model Dev."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"29","DOI":"10.1038\/s43247-025-03059-6","article-title":"Declining number of northern hemisphere land-surface frozen days under global warming and thinner snowpacks","volume":"7","author":"Hatami","year":"2025","journal-title":"Commun. Earth Env."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"346","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jenvman.2018.03.100","article-title":"Hydrological model using ground- and satellite-based data for river flow simulation towards supporting water resource management in the Red river basin, Vietnam","volume":"217","author":"Hiep","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Environ. Manag."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"234","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-025-04072-6","article-title":"A new framework for quantifying the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow variation with an application to the upper Da river basin","volume":"178","author":"Khuong","year":"2025","journal-title":"Clim. Change"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"227","DOI":"10.5194\/hess-30-227-2026","article-title":"Insights into uncertainties in future drought analysis using hydrological simulation model","volume":"30","author":"Kim","year":"2026","journal-title":"Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"178","DOI":"10.1038\/s41597-025-04487-x","article-title":"Downscaled gridded global dataset for gross domestic product (GDP) per capita PPP over 1990\u20132022","volume":"12","author":"Kummu","year":"2025","journal-title":"Sci. Data"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0027","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1981","DOI":"10.5194\/hess-29-1981-2025","article-title":"Technical note: what does the standardized streamflow index actually reflect? Insights and implications for hydrological drought analysis","volume":"29","author":"Lema","year":"2025","journal-title":"Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.atmosres.2024.107419","article-title":"A non-stationary impactquant framework for assessing the human activity impacts on hydrological drought in the Upper Red river","volume":"304","author":"Leng","year":"2024","journal-title":"Atmos. Res."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4181","DOI":"10.5194\/essd-15-4181-2023","article-title":"Spatiotemporally consistent global dataset of the GIMMS normalized difference vegetation index (PKU GIMMS NDVI) from 1982 to 2022","volume":"15","author":"Li","year":"2023","journal-title":"Earth Syst. Sci. Data"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"168","DOI":"10.1038\/s41597-020-0510-y","article-title":"A harmonized global nighttime light dataset 1992\u20132018","volume":"7","author":"Li","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci. Data"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"14415","DOI":"10.1029\/94JD00483","article-title":"A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models","volume":"99","author":"Liang","year":"1994","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2023.130211","article-title":"Spatial-temporal dynamics of meteorological and soil moisture drought on the Tibetan plateau: trend, response, and propagation process","volume":"626","author":"Lin","year":"2023","journal-title":"J. Hydrol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1029\/2024EF005276","article-title":"Prioritization of research on drought assessment in a changing climate","volume":"13","author":"Lisonbee","year":"2025","journal-title":"Earth\u2019s Future"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1390","DOI":"10.1038\/s41477-025-02024-7","article-title":"When and where soil dryness matters to ecosystem photosynthesis","volume":"11","author":"Liu","year":"2025","journal-title":"Nat. Plants"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"124","DOI":"10.1038\/s41597-024-02913-0","article-title":"A 31-year (1990\u20132020) global gridded population dataset generated by cluster analysis and statistical learning","volume":"11","author":"Liu","year":"2024","journal-title":"Sci. Data"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0036","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2024.132465","article-title":"Vegetation restoration affects soil hydrological processes in typical natural and planted forests on the Loess plateau","volume":"650","author":"Liu","year":"2025","journal-title":"J. Hydrol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0037","series-title":"Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems","article-title":"A unified approach to interpreting model predictions","author":"Lundberg","year":"2017"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0038","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4476","DOI":"10.1002\/wrcr.20346","article-title":"Identification of hydrologic drought triggers from hydroclimatic predictor variables","volume":"49","author":"Maity","year":"2013","journal-title":"Water Resour. Res."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0039","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2024.130853","article-title":"Neglecting hydrological errors can severely impact predictions of water resource system performance","volume":"634","author":"McInerney","year":"2024","journal-title":"J. Hydrol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0040","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"202","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012","article-title":"A review of drought concepts","volume":"391","author":"Mishra","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Hydrol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0041","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"8817","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-17-8817-2024","article-title":"The global water resources and use model WaterGAP v2.2e: description and evaluation of modifications and new features","volume":"17","author":"M\u00fcller Schmied","year":"2024","journal-title":"Geosci. Model Dev."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0042","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envres.2023.116956","article-title":"Assessing applicability of two gridded precipitation datasets for hydrological simulation in a poorly gauged river basin towards supporting sustainable water resources management","volume":"237","author":"Nguyen","year":"2023","journal-title":"Environ. Res."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0043","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1673","DOI":"10.1002\/2015WR018196","article-title":"Watershed memory at the Coweeta hydrologic laboratory: the effect of past precipitation and storage on hydrologic response","volume":"52","author":"Nippgen","year":"2016","journal-title":"Water Resour. Res."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0044","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1029\/2024WR037181","article-title":"Investigating the characteristics and drivers of slow droughts and flash droughts: a multi-temporal scale drought identification framework","volume":"61","author":"Qi","year":"2025","journal-title":"Water Resour. Res."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0045","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100","DOI":"10.1038\/s43017-023-00500-2","article-title":"The impacts of climate change on coastal groundwater","volume":"5","author":"Richardson","year":"2024","journal-title":"Nat. Rev. Earth Env."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0046","article-title":"How much X is in XAI: responsible use of \u201cexplainable\u201d artificial intelligence in hydrology and water resources","volume":"25","author":"Robert Maier","year":"2024","journal-title":"J. Hydrol. X"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0047","series-title":"Proceedings of the 36th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI). Presented at the Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence","first-page":"1388","article-title":"Discovering contemporaneous and lagged causal relations in autocorrelated nonlinear time series datasets","author":"Runge","year":"2020"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0048","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aau4996","article-title":"Detecting and quantifying causal associations in large nonlinear time series datasets","volume":"5","author":"Runge","year":"2019","journal-title":"Sci. Adv."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0049","author":"Sharma"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0050","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1029\/2007GL032487","article-title":"Use of a standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought","volume":"35","author":"Shukla","year":"2008","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0051","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"35","DOI":"10.1038\/s43017-024-00624-z","article-title":"Hydroclimate volatility on a warming Earth","volume":"6","author":"Swain","year":"2025","journal-title":"Nat. Rev. Earth Env."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0052","first-page":"1553","article-title":"The use of serially complete station data to improve the temporal continuity of gridded precipitation and temperature estimates","volume":"22","author":"Tang","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Hydrometeorol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0053","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.isci.2024.110628","article-title":"Causal discovery reveals complex patterns of drought-induced displacement","volume":"27","author":"T\u00e1rraga","year":"2024","journal-title":"IScience"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0054","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1403","DOI":"10.51594\/ijarss.v6i7.1300","article-title":"Reviewing the impact of climate change on global food security: challenges and solutions","volume":"6","author":"Toromade","year":"2024","journal-title":"Int. J. Appl. Res. Soc. Sci."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0055","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"359","DOI":"10.1002\/wat2.1085","article-title":"Hydrological drought explained","volume":"2","author":"Van Loon","year":"2015","journal-title":"WIREs Water"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0056","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.4028\/b-XDTcg5","article-title":"China\u2019s nationwide streamflow decline driven by landscape changes and human interventions","volume":"11","author":"Wang","year":"2025","journal-title":"Sci. Adv."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0057","article-title":"A time adaptive weighting framework for enhanced vegetation health index based drought monitoring","volume":"43","author":"Waseem","year":"2026","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Appl.: Soc. Environ."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0058","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2015.0274","article-title":"The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems","volume":"371","author":"Woodward","year":"2016","journal-title":"Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B: Biol. Sci."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0059","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2025.133446","article-title":"Investigating the drought propagation dynamics between meteorological and groundwater drought in the Yellow river basin, China","volume":"660","author":"Xiang","year":"2025","journal-title":"J. Hydrol."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0060","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jenvman.2025.126027","article-title":"Dense vegetation as a natural buffer: mitigating and decelerating drought propagation","volume":"389","author":"Xiao","year":"2025","journal-title":"J. Environ. Manag."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0061","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3455","DOI":"10.5194\/hess-30-3455-2026","article-title":"Cause-effect discovery in hydrometeorological systems: evaluation of causal discovery methods","volume":"30","author":"Yadav","year":"2026","journal-title":"Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0062","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"173","DOI":"10.1007\/s00703-011-0172-6","article-title":"Extreme drought event of 2009\/2010 over southwestern China","volume":"115","author":"Yang","year":"2012","journal-title":"Meteorol. Atmos. Phys."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0063","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abn6301","article-title":"A global transition to flash droughts under climate change","author":"Yuan","year":"2023","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0064","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2410521122","article-title":"Agriculture\u2019s impact on water\u2013energy balance varies across climates","volume":"122","author":"Zaerpour","year":"2025","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0065","article-title":"Drought propagation under global warming: characteristics, approaches, processes, and controlling factors","volume":"838","author":"Zhang","year":"2022","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0066","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1353","DOI":"10.5194\/essd-16-1353-2024","article-title":"GLC_FCS30D: the first global 30 m land-cover dynamics monitoring product with a fine classification system for the period from 1985 to 2022 generated using dense-time-series Landsat imagery and the continuous change-detection method","volume":"16","author":"Zhang","year":"2024","journal-title":"Earth Syst. Sci. Data"},{"key":"10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052_bib0067","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2024.132196","article-title":"Recent development on drought propagation: a comprehensive review","volume":"645","author":"Zhou","year":"2024","journal-title":"J. Hydrol."}],"container-title":["Water Research"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S0043135426017239?httpAccept=text\/xml","content-type":"text\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/api.elsevier.com\/content\/article\/PII:S0043135426017239?httpAccept=text\/plain","content-type":"text\/plain","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,11]],"date-time":"2026-10-11T19:58:46Z","timestamp":1791748726000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/linkinghub.elsevier.com\/retrieve\/pii\/S0043135426017239"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2027,1]]},"references-count":67,"alternative-id":["S0043135426017239"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052","relation":{},"ISSN":["0043-1354"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0043-1354","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2027,1]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Elsevier","name":"publisher","label":"This article is maintained by"},{"value":"An explainable and causally informed machine learning framework for hydrological drought transitions, propagation, and vulnerability","name":"articletitle","label":"Article Title"},{"value":"Water Research","name":"journaltitle","label":"Journal Title"},{"value":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.watres.2026.127052","name":"articlelink","label":"CrossRef DOI link to publisher maintained version"},{"value":"article","name":"content_type","label":"Content Type"},{"value":"\u00a9 2026 Elsevier Ltd. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.","name":"copyright","label":"Copyright"}],"article-number":"127052"}}