{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,8]],"date-time":"2026-04-08T11:31:23Z","timestamp":1775647883150,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":21,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2009,10,19]],"date-time":"2009-10-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1255910400000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":8784,"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/terms"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.cambridge.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J. Hyg."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[1985,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>SUMMARY<\/jats:title><jats:p>The paper describes a maximum-likelihood method for the estimation of age-related changes in the<jats:italic>per capita<\/jats:italic>rate of infection, from case notification records or serological data. The methods are applied to records of measles incidence in the UK and USA, for which the estimated rates of infection tend to rise to a maximum value at around 10 years of age and then to decline in the older age-classes. Longer-term and seasonal trends are analysed by reference to changes in the estimated average age at infection; a statistic derived from a knowledge of the age-specific rates of infection. Future data needs in the epidemiological study of directly transmitted viral and bacterial diseases are discussed with reference to the detection and interpretation of age-dependent rates of disease transmission.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0022172400062859","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2009,10,19]],"date-time":"2009-10-19T12:53:31Z","timestamp":1255956811000},"page":"419-436","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/policypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":209,"title":["The estimation of age-related rates of infection from case notifications and serological data"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"95","author":[{"given":"B. T.","family":"Grenfell","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"R. M.","family":"Anderson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2009,10,19]]},"reference":[{"key":"S0022172400062859_ref019","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-642-93287-8_24"},{"key":"S0022172400062859_ref018","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2344614"},{"key":"S0022172400062859_ref016","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a121575"},{"key":"S0022172400062859_ref013","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.18.5.616"},{"key":"S0022172400062859_ref011","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/11.1.5"},{"key":"S0022172400062859_ref010","first-page":"750","article-title":"The age distribution of whooping cough, measles, chicken pox, scarlet fever and diphtheria in various areas in the United States","volume":"8","author":"Fales","year":"1928","journal-title":"American Journal of Hygiene"},{"key":"S0022172400062859_ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"74","DOI":"10.4049\/jimmunol.83.1.74","article-title":"Measles antibodies in the population of New Haven, Connecticut","volume":"83","author":"Black","year":"1950","journal-title":"Journal of Immunology"},{"key":"S0022172400062859_ref003","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.7063839"},{"key":"S0022172400062859_ref001","first-page":"1","volume-title":"Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Agents: Theory and Applications","author":"Anderson","year":"1982"},{"key":"S0022172400062859_ref005","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S002217240006160X"},{"key":"S0022172400062859_ref020","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/4578824"},{"key":"S0022172400062859_ref009","first-page":"703","article-title":"Age incidence of the common communicable diseases of children","volume":"44","author":"Collins","year":"1920","journal-title":"Public Health Reports"},{"key":"S0022172400062859_ref008","first-page":"1553","article-title":"Past incidence of certain communicable diseases common among children","volume":"36","author":"Collins","year":"1921","journal-title":"Public Health Reports"},{"key":"S0022172400062859_ref017","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4159\/harvard.9780674428928"},{"key":"S0022172400062859_ref004","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S002217240002893X"},{"key":"S0022172400062859_ref014","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2347126"},{"key":"S0022172400062859_ref015","first-page":"576","article-title":"The corrected average attack rate from measles among city children","volume":"11","author":"Hedrich","year":"1930","journal-title":"American Journal of Hygiene"},{"key":"S0022172400062859_ref021","unstructured":"Wilson G. N. (1904). Measles: its prevalence and mortality in Aberdeen. Iteporl of the Medical Officer of Health, Aberdeen, pp. 41\u201351."},{"key":"S0022172400062859_ref012","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/11.1.15"},{"key":"S0022172400062859_ref002","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0022172400065177"},{"key":"S0022172400062859_ref007","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4899-2925-9"}],"container-title":["Journal of Hygiene"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S0022172400062859","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,27]],"date-time":"2023-05-27T06:39:09Z","timestamp":1685169549000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S0022172400062859\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[1985,10]]},"references-count":21,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[1985,10]]}},"alternative-id":["S0022172400062859"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s0022172400062859","relation":{},"ISSN":["0022-1724"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0022-1724","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[1985,10]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Cambridge University Press 1985","name":"license","label":"License","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}}]}}