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In this paper, we review the psychological evidence for this claim in the context of the debate concerning human judgemental competence under uncertainty. We consider recent counter-arguments which suggest that the evidence for cognitive biases may be dependent on observations of performance on inappropriate tasks and by comparisons with inappropriate normative standards. We also consider the practical implications for the design of decision support systems.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0269888900007244","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2009,7,7]],"date-time":"2009-07-07T09:34:25Z","timestamp":1246959265000},"page":"21-41","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Bias in human judgement under uncertainty?"],"prefix":"10.48130","volume":"10","author":[{"given":"Peter","family":"Ayton","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Eva","family":"Pascoe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"27968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2009,7,7]]},"reference":[{"volume-title":"Decision Analysis for Business","year":"1990","author":"Goodwin","key":"S0269888900007244_ref035"},{"key":"S0269888900007244_ref012","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0140525X00009092"},{"key":"S0269888900007244_ref011","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0167-9236(94)90061-2"},{"key":"S0269888900007244_ref089","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(73)90022-6"},{"key":"S0269888900007244_ref079","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0031322"},{"key":"S0269888900007244_ref050","first-page":"1189","article-title":"Not that bad after all: Generation of random sequences","volume":"18","author":"Kareev","year":"1992","journal-title":"Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance"},{"volume-title":"Subjective Probability","year":"1994","author":"Tiegen","key":"S0269888900007244_ref078"},{"key":"S0269888900007244_ref075","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0025-5564(75)90047-4"},{"volume-title":"Bias in Quantifying Judgments","year":"1989","author":"Poulton","key":"S0269888900007244_ref070"},{"key":"S0269888900007244_ref069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0082998"},{"key":"S0269888900007244_ref061","first-page":"489","article-title":"Probability forecasting in meteorology","volume":"79","author":"Murphy","year":"1984","journal-title":"Journal of the American Statistical Association"},{"volume-title":"Knowledge Based Systems in Artificial intelligence","year":"1982","author":"Lenat","key":"S0269888900007244_ref054"},{"key":"S0269888900007244_ref047","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511809477"},{"key":"S0269888900007244_ref044","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0285(72)90016-3"},{"key":"S0269888900007244_ref043","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511809477"},{"key":"S0269888900007244_ref039","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0003-066X.39.12.1372"},{"volume-title":"Decision Analysis","year":"1968","author":"Raiffa","key":"S0269888900007244_ref071"},{"key":"S0269888900007244_ref033","first-page":"513","article-title":"Presentation and content: The use of base rates as a continuous variable","volume":"14","author":"Gigerenzer","year":"1988","journal-title":"Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance"},{"volume-title":"Subjective Probability","year":"1994","author":"Gigerenzer","key":"S0269888900007244_ref032"},{"volume-title":"Subjective Probability","year":"1994","author":"Fox","key":"S0269888900007244_ref030"},{"volume-title":"Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research","year":"1986","author":"von","key":"S0269888900007244_ref082"},{"key":"S0269888900007244_ref029","first-page":"330","article-title":"Fault trees: Sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation","volume":"4","author":"Fischhoff","year":"1983","journal-title":"Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance"},{"key":"S0269888900007244_ref027","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3758\/BF03333755"},{"key":"S0269888900007244_ref065","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0023653"},{"key":"S0269888900007244_ref058","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1207\/s15327752jpa5003_6"},{"key":"S0269888900007244_ref026","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(80)90045-8"},{"volume-title":"The Foundation of Statistics","year":"1954","author":"Savage","key":"S0269888900007244_ref073"},{"volume-title":"Formal Representation of Human Judgment","year":"1968","author":"Edwards","key":"S0269888900007244_ref024"},{"volume-title":"Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and biases","year":"1982","author":"Eddy","key":"S0269888900007244_ref022"},{"key":"S0269888900007244_ref020","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0026309"},{"volume-title":"The Gambler","year":"1966","author":"Dostoyevsky","key":"S0269888900007244_ref019"},{"key":"S0269888900007244_ref086","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(92)90017-2"},{"key":"S0269888900007244_ref021","first-page":"1075","article-title":"Subjective Bayesian methods for rule-based inference systems","volume":"45","author":"Duda","year":"1976","journal-title":"Proc. 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