{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,5]],"date-time":"2026-01-05T18:37:34Z","timestamp":1767638254373,"version":"3.48.0"},"reference-count":96,"publisher":"Maximum Academic Press","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2012,4,26]],"date-time":"2012-04-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1335398400000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/terms"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["The Knowledge Engineering Review"],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>In recent years, a number of contributions have argued that monetary\u2014and, more generally, economic\u2014policy is finally becoming more of a science. According to these authors, policy rules implemented by central banks are nowadays well supported by a theoretical framework (the New Neoclassical Synthesis) upon which a general consensus has emerged in the economic profession. In other words, scientific discussion on economic policy seems to be ultimately confined to either fine-tuning this \u2018consensus\u2019 model, or assessing the extent to which \u2018elements of art\u2019 still exist in the conduct of monetary policy. In this paper, we present a substantially opposite view, rooted in a critical discussion of the theoretical, empirical, and political-economy pitfalls of the neoclassical approach to policy analysis. Our discussion indicates that we are still far from building a science of economic policy. We suggest that a more fruitful research avenue to pursue is to explore alternative theoretical paradigms, which can escape the strong theoretical requirements of neoclassical models (e.g. equilibrium, rationality, etc.). We briefly introduce one of the most successful alternative research projects\u2014known in the literature as agent-based computational economics (ACE)\u2014and we present the way it has been applied to policy analysis issues. We conclude by discussing the methodological status of ACE, as well as the (many) problems it raises.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0269888912000124","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2012,4,26]],"date-time":"2012-04-26T07:24:35Z","timestamp":1335425075000},"page":"163-185","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":24,"title":["On the scientific status of economic policy: a tale of alternative paradigms"],"prefix":"10.48130","volume":"27","author":[{"given":"Giorgio","family":"Fagiolo","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Andrea","family":"Roventini","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"27968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2012,4,26]]},"reference":[{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511617751"},{"volume-title":"Post Walrasian Macroeconomics","year":"2006","author":"Howitt","key":"S0269888912000124_ref52"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/cje\/bei078"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0165-1765(93)90138-3"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jebo.2007.04.004"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.97.1.5"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref9","volume-title":"Handbook of Econometrics","volume":"5","author":"Brock","year":"2001"},{"volume-title":"Post Walrasian Macroeconomics","year":"2006","author":"Aoki","key":"S0269888912000124_ref5"},{"volume-title":"Post Walrasian Macroeconomics","year":"2006","author":"Johansen","key":"S0269888912000124_ref53"},{"volume-title":"Evolutionary Principles of Economics","year":"2005","author":"Dosi","key":"S0269888912000124_ref30"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/0002828041301551"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jebo.2006.10.012"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/jeea.2006.4.2-3.269"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10614-005-9014-2"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01236366"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.1003"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511617751"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref84","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/154247603770383415"},{"volume-title":"Handbook of Macroeoconomics","year":"1999","author":"King","key":"S0269888912000124_ref57"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref67","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jebo.2006.10.010"},{"volume-title":"Post Walrasian Macroeconomics","year":"2006","author":"Leijonhufvud","key":"S0269888912000124_ref65"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-3932(83)90060-0"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref87","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10614-007-9095-1"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Giannoni M. P. , Woodford M. 2002b. Optimal Interest-rate Rules: II. Applications. Working Paper 9420. NBER.","DOI":"10.3386\/w9420"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref36","unstructured":"Favero C. 2007. Model Evaluation in Macroeconometrics: From Early Empirical Macroeconomic Models to DSGE Models. Working paper 327. IGIER, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy."},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref60","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2297640"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref82","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jebo.2006.06.016"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Dawid H. , Fagiolo G. (eds) 2008. Special issue on \u201cAgent-based models for economic policy design\u201d. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 67, 351\u2013544.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jebo.2007.06.009"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1103\/RevModPhys.74.47"},{"volume-title":"Essays in Positive Economics","year":"1953","author":"Friedman","key":"S0269888912000124_ref40"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref50","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jebo.2006.10.009"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2007.06.008"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/icc\/8.3.409"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref88","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0167-2231(93)90009-L"},{"volume-title":"The End of History and the Last Man","year":"1992","author":"Fukuyama","key":"S0269888912000124_ref42"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/jel.37.4.1661"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/jep.21.4.47"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref64","first-page":"3","article-title":"Ontological uncertainty and innovation","volume":"151","author":"Lane","year":"2004","journal-title":"Journal of Evolutionary Economics"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-4068(74)90032-9"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511617751"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref24","first-page":"251","article-title":"Skills, innovation, and growth: an agent-based policy analysis","volume":"228","author":"Dawid","year":"2008","journal-title":"Journal of Economics and Statistics"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref26","first-page":"297","article-title":"Monopolistic competition and optimum product diversity","volume":"67","author":"Dixit","year":"1977","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01224917"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jedc.2010.06.018"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jebo.2007.03.007"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198288008.001.0001","volume-title":"Aggregation and the Microfoundations of Dynamic Macroeconomics","author":"Forni","year":"1997"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref74","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mishkin F. S. 2007. Will Monetary Policy Become More of a Science. Working paper 13566. NBER.","DOI":"10.3386\/w13566"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-4068(98)00060-3"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref41","unstructured":"Fukac M. , Pagan A. 2006. Issues in Adopting DSGE Models for Use in the Policy Process. Working paper 10\/2006. CAMA."},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Alessi L. , Barigozzi M. , Capasso M. 2007. A Review of Nonfundamentalness and Identification in Structural VAR Models. Working Paper 2007\/22, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM).","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.1162156"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/jep.21.4.25"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Giannoni M. P. , Woodford M. 2002a. Optimal Interest-rate Rules: I. General Theory. Working Paper 9419. NBER.","DOI":"10.3386\/w9419"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref37","first-page":"466","article-title":"A, B, C's, (and D's) for understanding VARs","volume":"4","author":"Fernandez-Villaverde","year":"2006","journal-title":"Journal of the European Economic Association"},{"volume-title":"Post Walrasian Macroeconomics","year":"2006","author":"Johansen","key":"S0269888912000124_ref54"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref55","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5018\/economics-ejournal.ja.2007-4"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511803475","volume-title":"Choices, Values, and Frames","author":"Kahneman","year":"2000"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref59","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/jep.6.2.117"},{"volume-title":"Risk, Uncertainty, and Profits","year":"1921","author":"Knight","key":"S0269888912000124_ref61"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref62","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01213828"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref63","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01200867"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref66","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-0348-6193-9","volume-title":"The End of Physics","author":"Lindley","year":"1994"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref68","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/icc\/11.4.667"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref12","volume-title":"Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics","volume":"2","author":"Canova","year":"2008"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref70","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jebo.2006.10.011"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/jeth.1999.2585"},{"volume-title":"The Elgar Companion to Neo-Schumpeterian Economics","year":"2007","author":"Pyka","key":"S0269888912000124_ref78"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref51","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.98.2.251"},{"volume-title":"Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle","year":"2008","author":"Gal\u00ed","key":"S0269888912000124_ref43"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref71","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-0531(74)90100-8"},{"volume-title":"Post Walrasian Macroeconomics","year":"2006","author":"Mehrling","key":"S0269888912000124_ref72"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref73","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.43.3.257"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Beyer A. , Farmer R. E. A. 2004. On the Indeterminacy of New-Keynesian Economics. Working Paper Series No. 323, European Central Bank, Frankfurt, Germany.","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.526986"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref75","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Moss S. 2002. Policy analysis from first principles. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 99, 7267\u20137274.","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.092080699"},{"volume-title":"An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change","year":"1982","author":"Nelson","key":"S0269888912000124_ref76"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref77","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jebo.2006.12.006"},{"volume-title":"Handbook of Computational Economics II: Agent-Based Computational Economics","year":"2006a.","author":"Tesfatsion","key":"S0269888912000124_ref90"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref79","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2006.09.002"},{"volume-title":"Monetary Policy Rules","year":"1999","author":"Rotemberg","key":"S0269888912000124_ref80"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref93","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jebo.2006.10.013"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref81","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jebo.2006.12.007"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref83","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-3932(99)00046-X"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref86","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3440321"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref89","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Taylor J. 2007. The Explanatory Power of Monetary Policy Rules. Working paper 13685. NBER.","DOI":"10.3386\/w13685"},{"volume-title":"Post Walrasian Macroeconomics","year":"2006b.","author":"Tesfatsion","key":"S0269888912000124_ref91"},{"volume-title":"Handbook of Computational Economics II: Agent-Based Computational Economics","year":"2006","author":"Tesfatsion","key":"S0269888912000124_ref92"},{"volume-title":"Interest and Prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy","year":"2003","author":"Woodford","key":"S0269888912000124_ref94"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref95","first-page":"523","article-title":"Recent works on business cycles in historical perspectives: a review of theories and evidence","volume":"23","author":"Zarnowitz","year":"1985","journal-title":"Journal of Economic Literature"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/426038"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10614-007-9104-4"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Fagiolo G. , Birchenhall C. , Windrum P. (eds) 2007. Special issue on \u201cEmpirical validation in agent-based models\u201d. Computational Economics 30(3).","DOI":"10.1007\/s10614-007-9109-z"},{"volume-title":"New Keynesian Economics","year":"1991","author":"Mankiw","key":"S0269888912000124_ref69"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref96","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Zarnowitz V. 1997. Business Cycles Observed and Assessed: Why and How They Matter. Working paper 6230. NBER.","DOI":"10.3386\/w6230"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref85","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1913184"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Canova F. , Sala L. 2005. Back to Square One: Identification Issues in DSGE Models. Working Paper Series No. 583. European Central Bank, Frankfurt, Germany.","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.876947"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref48","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/654336"},{"key":"S0269888912000124_ref58","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2234075"}],"container-title":["The Knowledge Engineering Review"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S0269888912000124","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,5]],"date-time":"2026-01-05T14:44:05Z","timestamp":1767624245000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S0269888912000124\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2012,4,26]]},"references-count":96,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2012,4,26]]}},"alternative-id":["S0269888912000124"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s0269888912000124","relation":{},"ISSN":["0269-8889","1469-8005"],"issn-type":[{"type":"print","value":"0269-8889"},{"type":"electronic","value":"1469-8005"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2012,4,26]]}}}