{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,5]],"date-time":"2026-01-05T18:28:57Z","timestamp":1767637737371,"version":"3.48.0"},"reference-count":88,"publisher":"Maximum Academic Press","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,6]],"date-time":"2023-03-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1678060800000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":64,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["cambridge.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["The Knowledge Engineering Review"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>In this paper, we present a model of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic simulated by a multi-agent system (MAS) based on demographic data and medical knowledge. Demographic data are linked to the distribution of the population according to age and to an index of socioeconomic fragility with regard to the elderly. Medical knowledge are related to two risk factors: age and obesity. The contributions of this approach are as follows. Firstly, the two aggravating risk factors are introduced into the MAS using fuzzy sets. Secondly, the worsening of disease caused by these risk factors is modeled by fuzzy aggregation operators. The appearance of virus variants is also introduced into the simulation through a simplified modeling of their contagiousness. Using real data from inhabitants of an island in the Antilles (Guadeloupe, FWI), we model the rate of the population at risk which could be critical cases, if neither social distancing nor barrier gestures are respected by the entire population. The results show that hospital capacities are exceeded. The results show that hospital capacities are exceeded. The socioeconomic fragility index is used to assess mortality and also shows that the number of deaths can be significant.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0269888923000036","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,6]],"date-time":"2023-03-06T03:41:49Z","timestamp":1678074109000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/policypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["An agent-based model of COVID-19 pandemic and its variants using fuzzy subsets and real data applied in an island environment"],"prefix":"10.48130","volume":"38","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5903-8140","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"S\u00e9bastien","family":"Regis","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Olivier","family":"Manicom","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Andrei","family":"Doncescu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"27968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref58","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.47488\/dhrp.v1iS5.35"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref84","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/3477.735386"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref65","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/ACCESS.2020.2997311"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref70","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.05.19.20107532"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.25561\/79643"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref2","unstructured":"Agence r\u00e9gionale de Sant\u00e9 de Guadeloupe (Regional Health Agency of Guadeloupe). 2021. Point de situation hebdomadaire guadeloupe (guadeloupe weekly situation update). Technical report, August 2021."},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/17513758.2020.1773000"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref88","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30566-3"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/ciaa415"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.metabol.2020.154251"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/17477778.2020.1751570"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1503\/cmaj.1095949"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref55","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/oby.22941"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref81","article-title":"Estimating clinical severity of covid-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China","volume":"26","author":"Wu","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nature Medicine"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1057\/s41599-020-00700-x"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref40","article-title":"Covid-19: why are age and obesity risk factors for serious disease?","volume":"371","author":"Mahase","year":"2020","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref56","unstructured":"Radio Cara\u00efbes Internationale. 2021. Les gestes barri\u00e8res ont permis d\u2019\u00e9viter une catastrophe sanitaire selon une \u00e9tude (barrier gestures helped prevent a health disaster according to a study). https:\/\/www.rci.fm\/guadeloupe\/infos\/Sante\/Les-gestes-barrieres-ont-permis-deviter-une-catastrophe-sanitaire-selon-une-etude."},{"volume-title":"Social, Cultural, and Behavioral Modeling. SBP-BRiMS","year":"2016","author":"Smith","key":"S0269888923000036_ref72"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cell.2020.06.043"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/17477778.2020.1800422"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Escab\u00ed, M. 2012. Biosignal Processing. In Introduction to Biomedical Engineering, 3rd edition, Biomedical Engineering 11.","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-0-12-374979-6.00011-3"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref54","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.m1966"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref17","unstructured":"Chinese, CDC. 2020. The Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Emergency Response Epidemiology Team. The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (covid-19) \u2013 China, 2020. Technical report, China CDC Weekly."},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref50","unstructured":"Observatoire des fragilit\u00e9s (Fragility Observatory). 2020. Carte des fragilit\u00e9s (fragility map). http:\/\/www.observatoiredesfragilites.fr\/."},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref51","unstructured":"Observatoire National des fragilit\u00e9s (France) National Observatory of Fragility of France. 2020. Guadeloupe regional fragility observatory (observatoire r\u00e9gional des fragilit\u00e9s de guadeloupe). Technical report, INSEE. https:\/\/www.observatoires-fragilites-grand-sud.fr."},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref77","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rinp.2020.103662"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref71","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chaos.2020.110088"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.asoc.2020.106282"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref86","unstructured":"Yang, C. & Wilensky, U. 2011b. Netlogo Epidem Basic. Technical report, Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL. https:\/\/ccl.northwestern.edu\/netlogo\/models\/epiDEMBasic."},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref68","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/17441692.2020.1760915"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)31024-2"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1057\/jos.2016.10"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref14","unstructured":"Carrere, P. 2010. Arterial hypertension, obesity, precariousness in guadeloupe, the CONSANT survey (HTA, ob\u00e9sit\u00e9, pr\u00e9carit\u00e9 en Guadeloupe, l\u2019 enqu\u00eate consant). Medical thesis, http:\/\/www.hta-gwad.com\/admin\/publis\/these_carrere_consant_ultime.pdf."},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref60","article-title":"Softcomputing tools for simulating Covid-19 transmission without barrier gestures. The case of guadeloupe","author":"R\u00e9gis","year":"2020b","journal-title":"IEEE\/IIAI International Congress on Applied Information Technology"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2337\/dc20-0576"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref28","unstructured":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean. 2019. United Nations Calls for Urgent Action to Curb the Rise in Hunger and Obesity in Latin America and the Caribbean. Technical report, UN. http:\/\/www.fao.org\/americas\/noticias\/ver\/en\/c\/1250656\/."},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/FUZZY.2008.4630703"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref82","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2020.2648"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref57","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sdr.1673"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref67","unstructured":"S\u00e9n\u00e9, L. & P\u00e9trine, P. 2020. Coronavirus: much larger real numbers here (coronavirus: Des chiffres r\u00e9els beaucoup plus importants chez nous). Guadeloupe 1i\u00e8re TV. https:\/\/la1ere.francetvinfo.fr\/guadeloupe\/coronavirus-des-chiffres-reels-beaucoup-plus-importants-chez-nous-821842.html."},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref78","article-title":"Improved sir epidem model of social network marketing effectiveness and experimental simulation","volume":"36","author":"Wang","year":"2016","journal-title":"Xitong Gongcheng Lilun yu Shijian\/System Engineering Theory and Practice"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Chimmula, V. K. R. & Zhang, L. 2020. Time series forecasting of covid-19 transmission in canada using lstm network. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, 135.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chaos.2020.109864"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref83","article-title":"On ordered weighted averaging operators in multi-criteria decision making","volume":"28","author":"Yager","year":"1988","journal-title":"IEEE Trans. Systems, Man, and Cybernetics"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref52","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-020-2918-0"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref59","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"R\u00e9gis, S. , Manicom, O. & Doncescu, A. (2020a). Use of fuzzy sets, aggregation operators and multi agent systems to simulate COVID-19 transmission in a context of absence of barrier gestures and social distancing: application to an island region. In IEEE International Conference on Bioinformatics and Biomedicine, BIBM 2020, Virtual Event, South Korea, December 16\u201319, 2020, Park, T. , Cho, Y. , Hu, X. , Yoo, I. , Woo, H. G. , Wang, J. , Facelli, J. C. , Nam, S. & Kang, M. (eds), 2298\u20132305. IEEE.","DOI":"10.1109\/BIBM49941.2020.9313136"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.fss.2003.10.038"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41591-020-0883-7"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref76","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-021-03470-x"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(20)30120-1"},{"volume-title":"Fuzzy Set Theory and Probability Theory: What is the Relationship?","year":"2011","author":"Zadeh","key":"S0269888923000036_ref87"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref75","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(20)30243-7"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref66","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.04.20.20072413"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref32","unstructured":"I. N. S. E. E. National Institute of Statistics & Economic Studies of France. 2015. Complete File of the Department of Guadeloupe (dossier complet du d\u00e9partement de la guadeloupe). Technical report, INSEE. https:\/\/www.insee.fr\/fr\/statistiques\/2011101?geo=DEP-971."},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.04.05.20054460"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S136898001400175X"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref69","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2021.22885"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/int.1052"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref7","article-title":"Sars-cov-2 viral shedding and transmission dynamics: implications of who covid-19 discharge guidelines","volume":"843","author":"Badu","year":"2021","journal-title":"Frontiers in Medicine"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2337\/dc20-0682"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref48","unstructured":"Noll, N. B. , Aksamentov, I. , Druelle, V. , Badenhorst, A. , Ronzani, B. , Jefferies, G. , Albert, J. & Neher, R. A. 2020b. Covid-19 Scenarios. Technical report. https:\/\/covid19-scenarios.org\/."},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ivorra, B. , Ferr\u00e1ndez, M. , Vela-P\u00e9rez, M. & Ramos, A. 2020. Mathematical modeling of the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) taking into account the undetected infections. The case of China. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 88.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cnsns.2020.105303"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph17103520"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abg3055"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Miyahira, S. A. , de Azevedo, J. L. M. C. & Araujo, E. 2011. Fuzzy obesity index (MAFOI) for obesity evaluation and bariatric surgery indication. Journal of Translational Medicine, 9.","DOI":"10.1186\/1479-5876-9-134"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref61","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.idm.2020.03.001"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref73","unstructured":"Steven, H. 2020. Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to \u201cflatten the curve\u201d. The Washinton Post. https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/graphics\/2020\/world\/corona-simulator\/."},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"126207","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amc.2021.126207","article-title":"The effectiveness of contact tracing in mitigating covid-19 outbreak: a model-based analysis in the context of india","volume":"404","author":"Das","year":"2021","journal-title":"Applied Mathematics and Computation"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref5","unstructured":"Amor, M. 2020. Covid-19: a new quantified approach is a game-changer (Covid-19 : une nouvelle approche chiffr\u00e9e change la donne). Frances Antilles News Papers, April 2020. https:\/\/www.guadeloupe.franceantilles.fr\/actualite\/sante\/coronavirus\/covid-19-une-nouvelle-approche-chiffree-change-la-donne-568553.php."},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref64","article-title":"Covid-19: one-month impact of the French lockdown on the epidemic burden","author":"Roux","year":"2020","journal-title":"medRxiv, preprint."},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compbiomed.2020.103827"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref1","unstructured":"Agence r\u00e9gionale de Sant\u00e9 de Guadeloupe (Regional Health Agency of Guadeloupe). 2020. Point de situation hebdomadaire guadeloupe (guadeloupe weekly situation update). Technical report, October 2020. https:\/\/www.guadeloupe.ars.sante.fr\/coronavirus-informations-et-recommandations-0."},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.03.14.20036178"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jcrc.2020.04.012"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref63","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Roussel, I. 2021. Covid-19 in France: the revenge of the countryside. In Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreaks, Environment and Human Behaviour, 195\u2013219.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-030-68120-3_12"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2020.33706"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref31","unstructured":"Haut Conseil de la sant\u00e9 publique (France). 2020. Opinion on the prevention and management of patients at risk for serious forms of Covid-19 as well as the prioritization of diagnostic tests (avis relatif \u00e0 la pr\u00e9vention et \u00e0 la prise en charge des patients \u00e0 risque de formes graves de Covid-19 ainsi qu\u2019\u00e0 la priorisation des tests diagnostiques). Technical report."},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref79","unstructured":"Wilensky, U. 1999. Netlogo. Technical report, Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL. http:\/\/ccl.northwestern.edu\/netlogo\/."},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref80","article-title":"Opensafely: factors associated with covid-19-related hospital death in the linked electronic health records of 17 million adult nhs patients","author":"Williamson","year":"2020","journal-title":"medRxiv preprint."},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref62","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Roques, L. , Klein, E. K. , Papax, J. , Sara, A. & Soubeyrand, S. 2020. Using early data to estimate the actual infection fatality ratio from Covid-19 in France. Biology, 9.","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.03.22.20040915"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref85","unstructured":"Yang, C. & Wilensky, U. 2011a. Netlogo Epidem Travel and Control Model. Technical report, Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL. http:\/\/ccl.northwestern.edu\/netlogo\/models\/epiDEMTravelandControl."},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.25561\/77731"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30854-0"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref53","unstructured":"Pearson, C. , Russell, T. , Davies, N. , Kucharski, A. , C. C.-. Working Group, Edmunds, W., Eggo, R. , et al., 2021. Estimates of severity and transmissibility of novel south africa sars-cov-2 variant 501y. V2. Retrieved from: pdf (cmmid. github. io)."},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref9","unstructured":"Bayette, C. & Monticelli, M. 2020. Mod\u00e9lisation d\u2019une \u00e9pid\u00e9mie, partie 1. Image des Math\u00e9matiques. https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/graphics\/2020\/world\/corona-simulator\/."},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.05.05.20091363"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2213-8587(20)30160-1"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/272991.272995"},{"key":"S0269888923000036_ref74","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloepi.2020.100036"}],"container-title":["The Knowledge Engineering Review"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S0269888923000036","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,5]],"date-time":"2026-01-05T14:42:23Z","timestamp":1767624143000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S0269888923000036\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023]]},"references-count":88,"alternative-id":["S0269888923000036"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s0269888923000036","relation":{},"ISSN":["0269-8889","1469-8005"],"issn-type":[{"type":"print","value":"0269-8889"},{"type":"electronic","value":"1469-8005"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023]]},"assertion":[{"value":"\u00a9 The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press","name":"copyright","label":"Copyright","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}},{"value":"This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.","name":"license","label":"License","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}},{"value":"This content has been made available to all.","name":"free","label":"Free to read"}],"article-number":"e2"}}