{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,3]],"date-time":"2026-07-03T02:00:36Z","timestamp":1783044036632,"version":"3.54.6"},"reference-count":98,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2011,11,17]],"date-time":"2011-11-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1321488000000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/terms"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Rev. symb. logic"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2012,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>This is part A of a paper in which we defend a semantics for counterfactuals which is probabilistic in the sense that the truth condition for counterfactuals refers to a probability measure. Because of its probabilistic nature, it allows a counterfactual \u2018if<jats:italic>A<\/jats:italic>then<jats:italic>B<\/jats:italic>\u2019 to be true even in the presence of relevant \u2018<jats:italic>A<\/jats:italic>and not<jats:italic>B<\/jats:italic>\u2019-worlds, as long such exceptions are not too widely spread. The semantics is made precise and studied in different versions which are related to each other by representation theorems. Despite its probabilistic nature, we show that the semantics and the resulting system of logic may be regarded as a naturalistically vindicated variant of David Lewis\u2019 truth-conditional semantics and logic of counterfactuals. At the same time, the semantics overlaps in various ways with the non-truth-conditional suppositional theory for conditionals that derives from Ernest Adams\u2019 work. We argue that counterfactuals have two kinds of pragmatic meanings and come attached with two types of degrees of acceptability or belief, one being suppositional, the other one being truth based as determined by our probabilistic semantics; these degrees could not always coincide due to a new triviality result for counterfactuals, and they should not be identified in the light of their different interpretation and pragmatic purpose. However, for plain assertability the difference between them does not matter. Hence, if the suppositional theory of counterfactuals is formulated with sufficient care, our truth-conditional theory of counterfactuals is consistent with it. The results of our investigation are used to assess a claim considered by Hawthorne and H\u00e1jek, that is, the thesis that most ordinary counterfactuals are false.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s1755020311000153","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2011,11,17]],"date-time":"2011-11-17T15:36:24Z","timestamp":1321544184000},"page":"26-84","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":45,"title":["A PROBABILISTIC SEMANTICS FOR COUNTERFACTUALS. PART A"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"5","author":[{"given":"HANNES","family":"LEITGEB","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2011,11,17]]},"reference":[{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref81","volume-title":"Pragmatics and Empiricism","author":"Skyrms","year":"1984"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref77","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1612","DOI":"10.1214\/aop\/1015345764","article-title":"Improper regular conditional distributions","volume":"29","author":"Seidenfeld","year":"2001","journal-title":"The Annals of Probability"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref75","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/392938"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref72","volume-title":"Probability Theory and Probability Logic","author":"Roeper","year":"1999"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref73","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/analys\/64.4.299"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref71","first-page":"421","volume-title":"Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association","volume":"1","author":"Resnik","year":"1992"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref70","first-page":"237","volume-title":"The Foundations of Mathematics and other Logical Essays","author":"Ramsey","year":"1929"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref67","first-page":"51","volume-title":"TARK\u201996.Proceedings of the 6th conference on Theoretical Aspects Of Rationality And Knowledge","author":"Pearl","year":"1996"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.4159\/9780674020139","volume-title":"Time and Chance","author":"Albert","year":"2000"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref66","first-page":"47","volume-title":"Probability and Conditionals. Belief Revision and Rational Decision","author":"Pearl","year":"1994"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref86","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/288280"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref63","first-page":"29","volume-title":"Reduction. Between the Mind and the Brain","author":"Paglieri","year":"2009"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref61","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2185116"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref64","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S1755020309090236"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref74","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0004-3702(98)00042-3"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref54","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2184045"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref53","volume-title":"Counterfactuals","author":"Lewis","year":"1973"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref19","first-page":"12","volume-title":"Cause and Chance: Causation in an Indeterministic World","author":"Edgington","year":"2004"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref50","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511663895"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2185246"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref83","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/reec.1999.0190"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1010398724481"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref76","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11229-005-9067-8"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref60","unstructured":"Makinson D . (unpublished). Conditional probability in the light of qualitative belief change. Unpublished manuscript."},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1933-1592.2005.tb00534.x"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref90","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2184864"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref78","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10992-006-9030-2"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00485649"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/0199258872.001.0001"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11225-007-9061-x"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00201746508601430"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref31","first-page":"75","volume-title":"Probability and Conditionals. Belief Revision and Rational Decision","author":"H\u00e1jek","year":"1994"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref82","first-page":"13","volume-title":"Probability and Conditionals. Belief Revision and Rational Decision","author":"Skyrms","year":"1994"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref52","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00262950"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/mind\/108.431.427"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref34","volume-title":"Ifs. Conditionals, Belief, Decision, Chance, and Time","author":"Harper","year":"1981"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2274239"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref79","first-page":"259","volume-title":"Ifs. Conditionals, Belief, Decision, Chance, and Time","author":"Skyrms","year":"1980"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10992-004-5553-6"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref4","first-page":"1","volume-title":"Foundations of Probability Theory, Statistical Inference, and Statistical Theories of Science","author":"Adams","year":"1976"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref58","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"293","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780199278183.003.0011","volume-title":"Causation, Physics, and the Constitution of Reality: Russell\u2019s Republic Revisited","author":"Loewer","year":"2007"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref85","first-page":"98","volume-title":"Studies in Logical Theory. American Philosophical Quarterly Monograph Series 2","author":"Stalnaker","year":"1968"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref44","unstructured":"Kratzer A. (2009). Modals and conditionals again. Chapter 4 of unpublished book manuscript, to be published by Oxford University Press."},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref57","volume-title":"Philosophical Papers","volume":"2","author":"Lewis","year":"1986"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref45","volume-title":"A Theory of Counterfactuals.","author":"Kvart","year":"1986"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10988-007-9018-6"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref69","volume-title":"The Logic of Scientific Discovery","author":"Popper","year":"1968"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"263","DOI":"10.1525\/9780520318328-009","volume-title":"Studies in Inductive Logic and Probability","volume":"2","author":"Lewis","year":"1980"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref33","volume-title":"Foundations of Probability Theory, Statistical Inference, and Statistical Theories of Science","author":"Harper","year":"1976"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref30","unstructured":"H\u00e1jek A . (unpublished). Most counterfactuals are false. Unpublished draft."},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511526664.007"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref23","unstructured":"Etlin D . (unpublished). Modus ponens revisited. Unpublished draft."},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref51","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511720161"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref56","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00248850"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/B:SYNT.0000004904.91112.16"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11229-008-9369-8"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref7","first-page":"555","article-title":"Bayesian epistemology and epistemic conditionals: On the status of the export-import laws","author":"Arl\u00f3-Costa","year":"2001","journal-title":"Journal of Philosophy"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2185133"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jal.2006.03.013"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref84","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-009-2865-7_6"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/mind\/106.421.107"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref15","article-title":"What conditional probability must (almost) be","author":"Easwaran","year":"2005","journal-title":"Paper presented at the Formal Epistemology Workshop 05"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-015-7622-2"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref26","first-page":"211","volume-title":"Ifs. Conditionals, Belief, Decision, Chance, and Time","author":"Gibbard","year":"1981"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref12","first-page":"201","volume-title":"Meaning and Interpretation","author":"Blackburn","year":"1986"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/mind\/101.401.1"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/mind\/104.414.235"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref28","first-page":"269","volume-title":"Principles of Knowledge Representation and Reasoning.","author":"Grahne","year":"1991"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref17","first-page":"294","volume-title":"Vagueness. A Reader","author":"Edgington","year":"1996"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1004281414376"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref25","volume-title":"Knowledge in Flux","author":"G\u00e4rdenfors","year":"1988"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref62","first-page":"177","volume-title":"Probability and Conditionals. Belief Revision and Rational Decision","author":"McGee","year":"1994"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511498497"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref59","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/acprof:oso\/9780199234950.003.0004"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00217472"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00485309"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref48","unstructured":"Kvart I . (unpublished). The causal-process-chance-based analysis of counterfactuals.\u201d Unpublished manuscript."},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9264.2008.00233.x"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00247003"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref87","first-page":"113","volume-title":"Foundations of Probability Theory, Statistical Inference, and Statistical Theories of Science","author":"Stalnaker","year":"1976"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref21","volume-title":"Probability and Conditionals. Belief Revision and Rational Decision","author":"Eells","year":"1994"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref88","volume-title":"Inquiry","author":"Stalnaker","year":"1984"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref89","first-page":"31","volume-title":"Probability and Conditionals. Belief Revision and Rational Decision.","author":"Stalnaker","year":"1994"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref91","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1057\/9780230624900"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/0195143892.001.0001"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref92","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11225-009-9209-y"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00248849"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref93","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10992-008-9085-3"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref94","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00649400"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref95","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/0198244274.001.0001"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref96","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jos\/ffh022"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref97","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"123","DOI":"10.7551\/mitpress\/4056.003.0006","volume-title":"Ken Hale: A Life in Language","author":"von Fintel","year":"2001"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref98","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1004237315829"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref68","volume-title":"Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference","author":"Pearl","year":"2000"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref65","volume-title":"Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligence Systems","author":"Pearl","year":"1988"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref80","volume-title":"Causal Necessity","author":"Skyrms","year":"1980"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10988-005-3731-9"},{"key":"S1755020311000153_ref22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/392918"}],"container-title":["The Review of Symbolic Logic"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S1755020311000153","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,14]],"date-time":"2024-04-14T20:40:11Z","timestamp":1713127211000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S1755020311000153\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2011,11,17]]},"references-count":98,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2012,3]]}},"alternative-id":["S1755020311000153"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s1755020311000153","relation":{},"ISSN":["1755-0203","1755-0211"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1755-0203","type":"print"},{"value":"1755-0211","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2011,11,17]]}}}