{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,19]],"date-time":"2026-01-19T23:47:42Z","timestamp":1768866462126,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":39,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2014,9,16]],"date-time":"2014-09-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1410825600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/terms"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Rev. symb. logic"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2015,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>In this paper I present a precise version of Stalnaker\u2019s thesis and show that it is both consistent and predicts our intuitive judgments about the probabilities of conditionals. The thesis states that someone whose total evidence is <jats:italic>E<\/jats:italic> should have the same credence in the proposition expressed by \u2018if <jats:italic>A<\/jats:italic> then <jats:italic>B<\/jats:italic>\u2019 in a context where <jats:italic>E<\/jats:italic> is salient as they have conditional credence in the proposition <jats:italic>B<\/jats:italic> expresses given the proposition <jats:italic>A<\/jats:italic> expresses in that context. The thesis is formalised rigorously and two models are provided that demonstrate that the new thesis is indeed tenable within a standard possible world semantics based on selection functions. Unlike the Stalnaker\u2013Lewis semantics the selection functions cannot be understood in terms of similarity. A probabilistic account of selection is defended in its place.<\/jats:p><jats:p>I end the paper by suggesting that this approach overcomes some of the objections often levelled at accounts of indicatives based on the notion of similarity.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s1755020314000318","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2014,9,16]],"date-time":"2014-09-16T14:17:07Z","timestamp":1410877027000},"page":"131-163","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":33,"title":["STALNAKER\u2019S THESIS IN CONTEXT"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"8","author":[{"given":"ANDREW","family":"BACON","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2014,9,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/analys\/62.3.191"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10992-008-9088-0"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref17","first-page":"31","volume-title":"Probability and conditionals: belief revision and rational decision","author":"Jeffrey","year":"1994"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/mind\/104.414.235"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9264.2011.00301.x"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref16","first-page":"161","volume-title":"Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society, Supplementary Volumes","author":"Jeffrey","year":"1991"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF02379021"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref38","article-title":"Gibbard\u2019s problem: The context dependence of conditional statements","author":"Van Rooij","year":"1999","journal-title":"Proceedings Dutch-German workshop on nonmonotonic reasoning"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/B:PHIL.0000007243.60727.d4"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00873249"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref12","first-page":"75","volume-title":"Probability and conditionals: belief revision and rational decision","author":"H\u00e1jek","year":"1994"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-010-1853-1_10"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref32","first-page":"227","volume-title":"Epistemic Modality","author":"Stalnaker","year":"2009"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2185116"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-015-7622-2"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11229-012-0094-y"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref19","first-page":"1","article-title":"Conditionals","volume":"22","author":"Kratzer","year":"1986","journal-title":"Chicago Linguistics Society"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref27","unstructured":"Schulz M . (Forthcoming). Counterfactuals and arbitrariness. Mind."},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref10","first-page":"211","volume-title":"IFS: Conditionals, Belief, Decision, Chance and Time","author":"Gibbard","year":"1981"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Russell J. , Hawthorne J. , & Buchak L . ( Forthcoming). Groupthink. Philosophical studies.","DOI":"10.1007\/s11098-014-0350-8"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref8","volume-title":"The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy","author":"Edgington","year":"2014"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref13","first-page":"75","volume-title":"Probability and conditionals: belief revision and rational decision","author":"Hall","year":"1994"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref6","first-page":"3","article-title":"Do conditionals have truth conditions?","volume":"18","author":"Edgington","year":"1986","journal-title":"Cr\u00edtica: Revista Hispanoamericana de Filosof\u00eda"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1215\/00318108-1630921"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/288280"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.2478\/disp-2008-0003","article-title":"Context-sensitivity and (indicative) conditionals","volume":"2","author":"Santos","year":"2008","journal-title":"Disputatio"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2025977"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref34","volume-title":"Inquiry","author":"Stalnaker","year":"1987"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/acprof:oso\/9780199234684.001.0001"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref28","first-page":"98","article-title":"A theory of conditionals","volume":"2","author":"Stalnaker","year":"1968","journal-title":"Studies in logical theory"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11229-007-9283-5"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref22","volume-title":"Subjunctive conditionals and time: A defense of the classical approach","author":"M\u00e5rtensson","year":"1999"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref21","volume-title":"Counterfactuals","author":"Lewis","year":"1973"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref30","first-page":"302","volume-title":"Foundations of probability theory, statistical inference, and statistical theories of science","volume":"1","author":"Stalnaker","year":"1976"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/0199258872.001.0001"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref31","first-page":"87","volume-title":"IFS: Conditionals, belief, decision, chance, and time","author":"Stalnaker","year":"1981"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00262944"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-010-1853-1_6"},{"key":"S1755020314000318_ref3","unstructured":"Bacon A . (Unpublished Manuscript). Conditional logics accommodating Stalnaker\u2019s thesis."}],"container-title":["The Review of Symbolic Logic"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S1755020314000318","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2019,4,21]],"date-time":"2019-04-21T03:44:32Z","timestamp":1555818272000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S1755020314000318\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2014,9,16]]},"references-count":39,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2015,3]]}},"alternative-id":["S1755020314000318"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s1755020314000318","relation":{},"ISSN":["1755-0203","1755-0211"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1755-0203","type":"print"},{"value":"1755-0211","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2014,9,16]]}}}