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Much of this low-lying corridor is protected by aging dikes that are increasingly vulnerable to compound flooding from tides, storm surges and sea-level rise. This study combines static flood modeling and GIS-based land use classification to evaluate the elevation-based flood exposure of infrastructure and agricultural land. A planar water surface modeling approach validated with differential GPS measurements was applied to a 1-m-resolution digital elevation model. Results indicate that water levels in the adjacent basin can reach within 1\u00a0m of the mean dike crest elevation during spring tides. Planar surface modeling scenarios demonstrate that relatively modest increases in water level beyond this threshold could result in inundation, affecting thousands of hectares of cropland and hundreds of hectares of developed land, along with critical transportation infrastructure. This exposure has the potential to disrupt agricultural productivity, rural livelihoods, groundwater quality and interprovincial supply chains across the isthmus. While simplified, this analysis highlights the diminishing safety margin afforded by existing dikes, underscores the need for more detailed scenario-based modeling and reinforces the importance of proactive adaptation planning to safeguard this nationally significant corridor.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/cft.2026.10024","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,27]],"date-time":"2026-02-27T06:55:13Z","timestamp":1772175313000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/policypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["First-order assessment of flood vulnerability in the Chignecto Isthmus, Atlantic Canada"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"4","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7180-8267","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hayden A.","family":"Tackley","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/01e6qks80","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Dalhousie University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bay","family":"Berry","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/01e6qks80","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Dalhousie University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nicole K.","family":"LeRoux","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/01e6qks80","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Dalhousie University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Barret L.","family":"Kurylyk","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/01e6qks80","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Dalhousie University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"S2754720526100249_r39","unstructured":"Latifovic, R (2022) 2020 Land Cover of Canada. Government of Canada, Natural Resources 762 Canada, Centre for Remote Sensing. Ottawa, Ontario. 763 Available at: https:\/\/open.canada.ca\/data\/en\/dataset\/ee1580ab-a23d-4f86-a09b-79763677eb47 (accessed 26 May 2025)."},{"key":"S2754720526100249_r59","unstructured":"Service Nova Scotia and Internal Services. (2019). LIDAR-Elevation Index Map Service [Data Set]. Government of Nova Scotia. Available at: https:\/\/nsgi.novascotia.ca\/datalocator\/elevation\/ (accessed August 2023)."},{"key":"S2754720526100249_r74","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecoleng.2020.105713"},{"key":"S2754720526100249_r2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.sedgeo.2012.12.007"},{"key":"S2754720526100249_r45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/21664250.2021.1965417"},{"key":"S2754720526100249_r52","unstructured":"Patil, A (2023) Amherst Mayor \u2018Very Concerned\u2019 Hurricane Lee Could Leave Chignecto Isthmus under Water. CBC News, September15, 2023. Halifax. 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Available at: https:\/\/news.novascotia.ca\/en\/2024\/09\/15\/statement-chignecto-isthmus (accessed 05 June 2025)."},{"key":"S2754720526100249_r13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jfr3.12505"},{"key":"S2754720526100249_r29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-marine-020923-120737"},{"key":"S2754720526100249_r66","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/wat2.70031"},{"key":"S2754720526100249_r65","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2024.172344"},{"key":"S2754720526100249_r76","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ocecoaman.2019.01.010"},{"key":"S2754720526100249_r55","first-page":"218","volume-title":"Climate Risks and Adaptation Practices for the Canadian Transportation Sector 2016","author":"Rapaport","year":"2017"},{"key":"S2754720526100249_r61","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1139\/facets-2020-0073"},{"key":"S2754720526100249_r28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/07055900.2012.668670"},{"key":"S2754720526100249_r40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2023WR035054"},{"key":"S2754720526100249_r12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4138\/729"},{"key":"S2754720526100249_r8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ocecoaman.2025.107683"},{"key":"S2754720526100249_r22","unstructured":"Government of Canada (2022) 2020 Land Cover of Canada. 2020 Land Cover of Canada: Open Government Portal. 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