{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,19]],"date-time":"2025-06-19T08:40:01Z","timestamp":1750322401565,"version":"3.41.0"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,21]],"date-time":"2025-03-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1742515200000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Res. synth. methods"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,5]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>In prognosis studies with time-to-event outcomes, the survivals of groups with high\/low biomarker expression are often estimated by the Kaplan\u2013Meier method, and the difference between groups is measured by the hazard ratios (HRs). Since the high\/low expressions are usually determined by study-specific cutoff values, synthesizing only HRs for summarizing the prognostic capacity of a biomarker brings heterogeneity in the meta-analysis. The time-dependent summary receiver operating characteristics (SROC) curve was proposed as a cutoff-free summary of the prognostic capacity, extended from the SROC curve in meta-analysis of diagnostic studies. However, estimates of the time-dependent SROC curve may be threatened by reporting bias in that studies with significant outcomes, such as HRs, are more likely to be published and selected in meta-analyses. Under this conjecture, this paper proposes a sensitivity analysis method for quantifying and adjusting reporting bias on the time-dependent SROC curve. We model the publication process determined by the significance of the HRs and introduce a sensitivity analysis method based on the conditional likelihood constrained by some expected proportions of published studies. Simulation studies showed that the proposed method could reduce reporting bias given the correctly-specified marginal selection probability. The proposed method is illustrated on the real-world meta-analysis of Ki67 for breast cancer.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/rsm.2025.14","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,21]],"date-time":"2025-03-21T09:22:29Z","timestamp":1742548949000},"page":"528-549","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Sensitivity analysis for reporting bias on the time-dependent summary receiver operating characteristics curve in meta-analysis of prognosis studies with time-to-event outcomes"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"16","author":[{"given":"Yi","family":"Zhou","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ao","family":"Huang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Satoshi","family":"Hattori","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"S1759287925000146_r27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/a0028091"},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2005.02.022"},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.7029"},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"421","DOI":"10.1177\/096228020000900503","article-title":"Modelling publication bias in meta-analysis: A review","volume":"9","author":"Sutton","year":"2000","journal-title":"Stat. Methods Med. Res."},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0006-341X.2000.00337.x"},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"251","DOI":"10.1177\/096228020101000402","article-title":"A sensitivity analysis for publication bias in systematic reviews","volume":"10","author":"Copas","year":"2001","journal-title":"Stat. Methods Med. Res."},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"927","DOI":"10.1007\/s00184-021-00809-2","article-title":"Diagnostic test meta-analysis by empirical likelihood under a Copas-like selection model","volume":"84","author":"Li","year":"2021","journal-title":"Metrika"},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"116","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/94.2.116","article-title":"Pooled analysis of prognostic impact of urokinase-type plasminogen activator and its inhibitor PAI-1 in 8377 breast cancer patients","volume":"94","author":"Look","year":"2002","journal-title":"JNCI J. Nat. Cancer Inst."},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5218","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.9121","article-title":"Summary concordance index for meta-analysis of prognosis studies with a survival outcome","volume":"40","author":"Hattori","year":"2021","journal-title":"Stat. Med."},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"53","DOI":"10.1186\/s12874-017-0332-6","article-title":"Time-dependent ROC curve analysis in medical research: current methods and applications","volume":"17","author":"Kamarudin","year":"2017","journal-title":"BMC Med. Res. Methodol."},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"247","DOI":"10.1093\/biostatistics\/1.3.247","article-title":"Meta-analysis, funnel plots and sensitivity analysis","volume":"1","author":"Copas","year":"2000","journal-title":"Biostatistics"},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2912","DOI":"10.1177\/0962280218791602","article-title":"Copas-like selection model to correct publication bias in systematic review of diagnostic test studies","volume":"28","author":"Piao","year":"2019","journal-title":"Stat. Methods Med. Res."},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r25","unstructured":"[25] Boutron, I , Page, MJ , Higgins, JP , Altman, DG , Lundh, A , Hr\u00f3bjartsson, A . Considering risk of bias due to missing results. Cochrane. 2024. Accessed January 15, 2025. https:\/\/training.cochrane.org\/handbook\/current\/chapter-07#section-7-7."},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X09353452"},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"327","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.7510","article-title":"Sensitivity analysis for publication bias in meta-analysis of diagnostic studies for a continuous biomarker","volume":"37","author":"Hattori","year":"2018","journal-title":"Stat. Med."},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0962280212464542"},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2865","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.942","article-title":"A hierarchical regression approach to meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy evaluations","volume":"20","author":"Rutter","year":"2001","journal-title":"Stat. Med."},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"153","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2407-8-153","article-title":"Meta-analysis confirms BCL2 is an independent prognostic marker in breast cancer","volume":"8","author":"Callagy","year":"2008","journal-title":"BMC Cancer"},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r1","unstructured":"[1] Macaskill, P , Gatsonis, C , Deeks, J , Harbord, R , Takwoingi, Y . Chapter 10: Analysing and presenting results. The cochrane collaboration. 2010. Accessed January 15, 2025. http:\/\/srdta.cochrane.org\/."},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r28","unstructured":"[28] Therneau, T . A package for survival analysis in R. R package version 3.7-0. 2024."},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"884","DOI":"10.2967\/jnumed.113.133801","article-title":"Prognostic value of metabolic tumor volume and total lesion glycolysis in head and neck cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"55","author":"Pak","year":"2014","journal-title":"J. Nucl. Med."},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"187","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2517-6161.1972.tb00899.x","article-title":"Regression models and life-tables","volume":"34","author":"Cox","year":"1972","journal-title":"J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B"},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.6493"},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9876.2012.01049.x"},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"146","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0006-341X.2004.00161.x","article-title":"A bound for publication bias based on the fraction of unpublished studies","volume":"60","author":"Copas","year":"2004","journal-title":"Biometrics"},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.9643"},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/JTO.0000000000000185"},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1504","DOI":"10.1038\/sj.bjc.6603756","article-title":"Ki-67 as prognostic marker in early breast cancer: a meta-analysis of published studies involving 12 155 patients","volume":"96","author":"De Azambuja","year":"2007","journal-title":"Br. J. Cancer"},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"k4597","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.k4597","article-title":"A guide to systematic review and meta-analysis of prognostic factor studies","volume":"364","author":"Riley","year":"2019","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/ss\/1177013013"},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"ujae080","DOI":"10.1093\/biomtc\/ujae080","article-title":"Nonparametric worst-case bounds for publication bias on the summary receiver operating characteristic curve","volume":"80","author":"Zhou","year":"2024","journal-title":"Biometrics"},{"key":"S1759287925000146_r13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jrsm.1201"}],"container-title":["Research Synthesis Methods"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S1759287925000146","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,19]],"date-time":"2025-06-19T08:17:17Z","timestamp":1750321037000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S1759287925000146\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,21]]},"references-count":32,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,5]]}},"alternative-id":["S1759287925000146"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/rsm.2025.14","relation":{},"ISSN":["1759-2879","1759-2887"],"issn-type":[{"type":"print","value":"1759-2879"},{"type":"electronic","value":"1759-2887"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,21]]}}}