{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,19]],"date-time":"2026-08-19T18:56:04Z","timestamp":1787165764522,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":43,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,3,16]],"date-time":"2020-03-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1584316800000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["cambridge.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Psychol. Med."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"S0033291720000446_sec_a1\">\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Contemporary models of psychosis implicate the importance of affective dysregulation and cognitive factors (e.g. biases and schemas) in the development and maintenance of psychotic symptoms, but studies testing proposed mechanisms remain limited. This study, uniquely using a prospective design, investigated whether the jumping to conclusions (JTC) reasoning bias contributes to psychosis progression and persistence.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"S0033291720000446_sec_a2\" sec-type=\"methods\">\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      Data were derived from the second Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS-2). The Composite International Diagnostic Interview and an add-on instrument were used to assess affective dysregulation (i.e. depression, anxiety and mania) and psychotic experiences (PEs), respectively. The beads task was used to assess JTC bias. Time series analyses were conducted using data from T1 and T2 (\n                      <jats:italic>N<\/jats:italic>\n                      = 8666), excluding individuals who reported high psychosis levels at T0.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"S0033291720000446_sec_a3\" sec-type=\"results\">\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      Although the prospective design resulted in low statistical power, the findings suggest that, compared to those without symptoms, individuals with lifetime affective dysregulation were more likely to progress from low\/moderate psychosis levels (state of \u2018aberrant salience\u2019, one or two PEs) at T1 to high psychosis levels (\u2018frank psychosis\u2019, three or more PEs or psychosis-related help-seeking behaviour) at T2 if the JTC bias was present [adj. relative risk ratio (RRR): 3.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.8\u201318.6,\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      = 0.101]. Similarly, the JTC bias contributed to the persistence of high psychosis levels (adj. RRR: 12.7, 95% CI 0.7\u2013239.6,\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      = 0.091).\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"S0033291720000446_sec_a4\" sec-type=\"conclusions\">\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We found some evidence that the JTC bias may contribute to psychosis progression and persistence in individuals with affective dysregulation. However, well-powered prospective studies are needed to replicate these findings.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0033291720000446","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,3,16]],"date-time":"2020-03-16T06:23:10Z","timestamp":1584339790000},"page":"1696-1703","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/policypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":15,"title":["The jumping to conclusions reasoning bias as a cognitive factor contributing to psychosis progression and persistence: findings from NEMESIS-2"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"51","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6050-3297","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Christian","family":"Rauschenberg","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ulrich","family":"Reininghaus","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Margreet","family":"ten Have","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ron","family":"de Graaf","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Saskia","family":"van Dorsselaer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Claudia J. 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Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press","name":"copyright","label":"Copyright","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}},{"value":"This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.","name":"license","label":"License","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}},{"value":"This content has been made available to all.","name":"free","label":"Free to read"}]}}