{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,2]],"date-time":"2022-04-02T17:16:36Z","timestamp":1648919796976},"reference-count":0,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2000,6,1]],"date-time":"2000-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":959817600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/terms"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Econom. Theory"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2000,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>The prediction of future events and developments is an \nexciting and perhaps mysterious task, often associated \nwith the aura of prophets and seers instead of probabilistic \nmodels and computer screens. The reality of macroeconomic \nforecasting, however, is quite mundane. Predictions of \nmacroeconomic aggregates play an important role in the \ndecision making of private enterprises, central banks, \nand governments. In general, forecasts become less popular \nif they turn out to be inaccurate ex post, and the postwar \nhistory of macroeconomic forecasting has had its share \nof disappointments. For instance, in the early 1980's, \neconomists tested inflation forecasts taken over the previous \n20 years and found that the forecasts were poor, partly \nas a result of the oil price shocks in the 1970's. \nA recent study (Croushore, 1998) with data up to 1996 provides \na more favorable assessment of the quality of inflation \nforecasts.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0266466600003066","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2002,7,27]],"date-time":"2002-07-27T13:45:46Z","timestamp":1027777546000},"page":"441-450","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["FORECASTING ECONOMIC TIME SERIES"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"16","author":[{"given":"Frank","family":"Schorfheide","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2000,6,1]]},"container-title":["Econometric Theory"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S0266466600003066","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2019,4,11]],"date-time":"2019-04-11T19:59:53Z","timestamp":1555012793000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S0266466600003066\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":["by Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry, Cambridge \nUniversity Press, 1998"],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2000,6]]},"references-count":0,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2000,6]]}},"alternative-id":["S0266466600003066"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s0266466600003066","relation":{},"ISSN":["0266-4666","1469-4360"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0266-4666","type":"print"},{"value":"1469-4360","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2000,6]]}}}