{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,16]],"date-time":"2026-07-16T16:48:05Z","timestamp":1784220485709,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":48,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2014,7,31]],"date-time":"2014-07-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1406764800000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/terms"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Econom. Theory"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2015,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>The paper provides a careful, analytical account of Trygve Haavelmo\u2019s use of the analogy between controlled experiments common in the natural sciences and econometric techniques. The experimental analogy forms the linchpin of the methodology for passive observation that he develops in his famous monograph,<jats:italic>The Probability Approach in Econometrics<\/jats:italic>(1944). Contrary to some recent interpretations of Haavelmo\u2019s method, the experimental analogy does not commit Haavelmo to a strong apriorism in which econometrics can only test and reject theoretical hypotheses, rather it supports the acquisition of knowledge through a two-way exchange between theory and empirical evidence. Once the details of the analogy are systematically understood, the experimental analogy can be used to shed light on theory-consistent cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) scenario analyses. A CVAR scenario analysis can be interpreted as a clear example of Haavelmo\u2019s \u2018experimental\u2019 approach; and, in turn, it can be shown to extend and develop Haavelmo\u2019s methodology and to address issues that Haavelmo regarded as unresolved.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0266466614000292","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2014,7,31]],"date-time":"2014-07-31T13:39:43Z","timestamp":1406813983000},"page":"249-274","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":16,"title":["TRYGVE HAAVELMO\u2019S EXPERIMENTAL METHODOLOGY AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS IN A COINTEGRATED VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"31","author":[{"given":"Kevin","family":"Hoover","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Katarina","family":"Juselius","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2014,7,31]]},"reference":[{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref43","first-page":"1","volume-title":"Studies in Econometric Method","volume":"14","author":"Marschak","year":"1953"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lucas R.E. Jr . (1976) Econometric policy evaluation: A critique. Reprinted in Lucas (1981, pp. 104\u2013130).","DOI":"10.1016\/S0167-2231(76)80003-6"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780199285662.001.0001","volume-title":"The Cointegrated VAR Model. Methodology and Applications","author":"Juselius","year":"2006"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S1053837214000029"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref20","first-page":"258","volume-title":"Statistical Inference in Dynamic Economic Models","volume":"10","author":"Haavelmo","year":"1950"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511522109"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/003355300554674"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref24","unstructured":"Hendry D.F. & Mizon G.E. (2010) On the Mathematical Basis of Inter-temporal Optimization. Discussion paper, 497, University of Oxford, Economics Department."},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1515\/9781400838189"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref15","volume-title":"Imperfect Knowledge Economics: Exchange Rates and Risk","author":"Frydman","year":"2007"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref25","first-page":"12","article-title":"The contributions to econometrics in Trygve Haavelmo","volume":"11","author":"Hendry","year":"1989","journal-title":"Sosial\u00f8konomen"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref9","volume-title":"The Design of Experiments","author":"Fisher","year":"1935"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2235122"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Boumans M . (2012) Haavelmo\u2019s Methodology of Empirical Science Outside the Laboratory. Unpublished typescript, University of Amsterdam.","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.2131100"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/jep.24.2.3"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/13501789900000017"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01205413"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref28","volume-title":"Applied Intermediate Macroeconomics","author":"Hoover","year":"2012"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref39","volume-title":"The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money","author":"Keynes","year":"1936"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref6","first-page":"226","volume-title":"Histories of Observation in Economics","volume":"44","author":"Duarte","year":"2012"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref48","volume-title":"Recursive Macroeconomic Theory","author":"Sargent","year":"2004"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1515\/9781400824267"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1906935"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/jep.10.1.69"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2004.02.016"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref12","volume-title":"Milton Friedman\u2019s Monetary Framework","author":"Friedman","year":"1974"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.oep.a041889"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4324\/9780203324073"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-4076(94)01664-L"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref35","unstructured":"Juselius K . (2012) Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis Against the Imperfect Knowledge Hypothesis in a Model for Foreign Exchange: A Scenario Analysis. Working paper, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen. Available from http:\/\/www.econ.ku.dk\/okokj\/papers\/RE_IKEscenarios.pdf."},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.98.2.251"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref45","volume-title":"The Analysis of Matter","author":"Russell","year":"1927"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref36","article-title":"Haavelmo\u2019s probability approach and the cointegrated VAR","author":"Juselius","year":"2014","journal-title":"Econometric Theory"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/13501789400000006"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5018\/economics-ejournal.ja.2008-28"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref37","unstructured":"Juselius K. & Franchi M. (2007) Taking a DSGE model to the data meaningfully. Economics \u2013 The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal no. 4. Available from http:\/\/www.economics-ejournal.org\/economics\/journalarticles\/2007-4."},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref22","first-page":"876","article-title":"Haavelmo and the birth of modern econometrics: A review of the history of econometric ideas by M. Morgan","volume":"30","author":"Heckman","year":"1992","journal-title":"Journal of Economic Literature"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref27","first-page":"223","volume-title":"Economics for Real: Uskali M\u00e4ki and the Place of Truth in Economics","author":"Hoover","year":"2012"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref10","volume-title":"Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money","author":"Friedman","year":"1956"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref14","unstructured":"Frisch R . (1938) Statistical Versus Theoretical Relations in Economic Macrodynamics. Unpublished memorandum, University of Oslo. Downloadable from http:\/\/www.sv.uio.no\/econ\/om\/tall-og-fakta\/nobelprisvinnere\/ragnar-frisch\/published-scientific-work\/rf-published-scientific-works\/rf1938e.pdf."},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1905714"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref21","unstructured":"Haavelmo T . (1954) Structural Models and Econometrics. Unpublished typescript, University of Oslo. Downloadable from http:\/\/www.sv.uio.no\/econ\/english\/research\/networks\/haavelmo-network\/publications\/files\/th1955b-es-1954-uppsala.pdf."},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref11","volume-title":"The Optimal Quantity of Money and Other Essays","author":"Friedman","year":"1969"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref13","first-page":"97","article-title":"New orientation of economic theory. Economics as an experimental science","volume":"4","author":"Frisch","year":"1932","journal-title":"Nordic Statistical Journal"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref5","unstructured":"Congressional Budget Office (1995) CBO\u2019s Method for Estimating Potential Output. CBO Memorandum, October 1995. Available from ftp:\/\/ftp.cbo.gov\/3xx\/doc312\/potout.pdf."},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref47","volume-title":"Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics: The Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures","author":"Sargent","year":"1994"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref46","volume-title":"Dynamic Macroeconomics","author":"Sargent","year":"1987"},{"key":"S0266466614000292_ref38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511617751.018"}],"container-title":["Econometric Theory"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S0266466614000292","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,31]],"date-time":"2024-05-31T18:42:55Z","timestamp":1717180975000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S0266466614000292\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2014,7,31]]},"references-count":48,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2015,4]]}},"alternative-id":["S0266466614000292"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s0266466614000292","relation":{},"ISSN":["0266-4666","1469-4360"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0266-4666","type":"print"},{"value":"1469-4360","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2014,7,31]]}}}