{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,28]],"date-time":"2024-05-28T03:10:18Z","timestamp":1716865818401},"reference-count":114,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2014,6,27]],"date-time":"2014-06-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1403827200000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/terms"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Econom. Theory"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2015,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Much of modern econometrics stems directly from the post-1940 works of Haavelmo and the Cowles Commission (CC) Monograph 10. This paper examines the consolidation process of the Haavelmo-CC research program mainly during the 1950\u201370 period from three aspects: (i) developments of econometrics textbooks, (ii) emerging themes and trends in econometric research, and (iii) the contribution of the program to empirical modeling of real-world issues. The examination reveals that the program has gained dominance primarily through its adherence to the scientific banner and style rather than its empirical relevance. The adoption of the hard science methodology is decisive in winning over the academic community; the taxonomy of econometrics into steps involving primarily specification, identification, and estimation has played a pivotal role in generating compartmentalized research topics with manageable technical challenge and also in facilitating the educational need for compiling self-contained subjects and definitely soluble questions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0266466614000309","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2014,6,27]],"date-time":"2014-06-27T13:46:38Z","timestamp":1403876798000},"page":"275-293","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["CONSOLIDATION OF THE HAAVELMO-COWLES COMMISSION RESEARCH PROGRAM"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"31","author":[{"given":"Duo","family":"Qin","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2014,6,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref54","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1928627"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref37","volume-title":"The Rise of Econometrics","volume":"2","author":"Haavelmo","year":"1939"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.oep.a041900"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref96","unstructured":"Tinbergen J . (1939) Statistical Testing of Business-Cycle Theories. League of Nations."},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref5","first-page":"413","article-title":"A quarterly model for the United States economy","volume":"49","author":"Barger","year":"1954","journal-title":"Journal of the American Statistical Association"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref93","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3440321"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref112","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-349-15548-4"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2525824"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref22","volume-title":"The Brookings Quarterly Econometric Model of the United States","author":"Duesenberry","year":"1965"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/296016"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1909353"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1907067"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref50","volume-title":"Essays in Economic and Econometrics: A Volume in Honor of Harold Hotelling","author":"Klein","year":"1960"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref13","first-page":"3","volume-title":"Economic Theory and Measurement: A Twenty Year Research Report 1932\u20131952","author":"Christ","year":"1952"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref30","first-page":"117","volume-title":"Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics","author":"Gilbert","year":"2006"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref92","first-page":"104","article-title":"Forecasting and analysis with an econometric model","volume":"52","author":"Suits","year":"1962","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref78","first-page":"361","article-title":"Report of the Oxford Meeting, September 25\u201329, 1936","volume":"5","author":"Phelps Brown","year":"1937","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9781139170116"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref10","volume-title":"A Dynamic Approach to Economic Theory: The Yale Lectures of Ragnar Frisch in 1930","author":"Bjerkholt","year":"2010"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref73","first-page":"291","article-title":"A test of Klein\u2019s Model III for changes of structure (abstract)","volume":"18","author":"Marshall","year":"1950","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref107","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1907540"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref88","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"91","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2517-6161.1959.tb00317.x","article-title":"The estimation of relationships with autocorrelated residuals by the use of instrumental variables","volume":"21","author":"Sargan","year":"1959","journal-title":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref53","volume-title":"An Econometric Model of the United Kingdom","author":"Klein","year":"1961"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref101","volume-title":"Econometrics","author":"Valavanis","year":"1959"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref85","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/acprof:oso\/9780199679348.001.0001"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref82","volume-title":"The Formation of Econometrics: A Historical Perspective","author":"Qin","year":"1993"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref102","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1927855"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1907743"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref111","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2230207"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1907066"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref8","first-page":"95","article-title":"On statistical demand analysis from the viewpoint of simultaneous equations","volume":"29","author":"Bentzel","year":"1946","journal-title":"Skandinavisk Aktuarietidskrift"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref28","first-page":"407","volume-title":"The Foundations of Economic Analysis","author":"Frisch","year":"1938"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref67","first-page":"326","article-title":"Some international evidence on output-inflation tradeoffs","volume":"63","author":"Lucas","year":"1973","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref59","volume-title":"The Structure of Scientific Revolutions","author":"Kuhn","year":"1962"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref98","volume-title":"Econometrics","author":"Tintner","year":"1952"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref7","volume-title":"Frontiers of Quantitative Economics","author":"Basmann","year":"1974"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S026646660707034X"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref89","first-page":"25","volume-title":"Econometric Analysis for National Economic Planning","author":"Sargan","year":"1964"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.25.5.423"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref11","volume-title":"A History of Macroeconometric Model-Building","author":"Bodkin","year":"1991"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref16","volume-title":"Econometric Models and Methods","author":"Christ","year":"1966"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref17","first-page":"30","article-title":"The Cowles Commission\u2019s contributions to econometrics at Chicago, 1939\u20131955","volume":"32","author":"Christ","year":"1994","journal-title":"Journal of Economic Literature"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref18","volume-title":"Empirical Econometrics","author":"Cramer","year":"1969"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/ss\/1177012165"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1947.10501917"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref21","volume-title":"The Rise of Econometrics","volume":"3","author":"Dr\u00e8ze","year":"1962"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref24","volume-title":"A History of Econometrics","author":"Epstein","year":"1987"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.oep.a041930"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref87","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1907619"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/257768"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref27","volume-title":"Intermediate Economic Statistics","author":"Fox","year":"1968"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref29","first-page":"153","volume-title":"Induction, Growth and Trade: Essays in Honour of Sir Roy Harrod","author":"Frisch","year":"1970"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref31","volume-title":"Measurement in Economics: A Handbook","author":"Gilbert","year":"2007"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref33","volume-title":"Impact Multipliers and Dynamic Properties of the Klein-Goldberger Model","author":"Goldberger","year":"1959"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref34","volume-title":"Econometric Theory","author":"Goldberger","year":"1964"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/259645"},{"key":"#cr-split#-S0266466614000309_ref39.2","unstructured":"3. revised from the 1941 mimeograph entitled 'On the Theory and Measurement of Economic Relations'."},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/003355300554674"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.oep.a041889"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref48","volume-title":"Economic Fluctuations in the United States 1921\u20131941","author":"Klein","year":"1950"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref45","volume-title":"Studies in Econometric Method","author":"Hood","year":"1953"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref74","first-page":"481","article-title":"The rhetoric of economics","volume":"21","author":"McCloskey","year":"1983","journal-title":"Journal of Economic Literature"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref46","volume-title":"Econometric Methods","author":"Johnston","year":"1963"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref49","volume-title":"A Textbook of Econometrics","author":"Klein","year":"1953"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref104","first-page":"771","article-title":"Some recent developments in applied econometrics: Dynamic models and simultaneous equation systems","volume":"7","author":"Wallis","year":"1969","journal-title":"Journal of Economic Literature"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref51","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1971.10482280"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref60","volume-title":"Specification Searches","author":"Leamer","year":"1978"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref52","volume-title":"An Econometric Model of the United States 1929\u20131952","author":"Klein","year":"1955"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref23","volume-title":"The Brookings Model: Some Further Results","author":"Duesenberry","year":"1969"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1926197"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref55","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1927854"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref72","volume-title":"Statistical Inference in Dynamic Economic Models","author":"Marschak","year":"1950"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref56","volume-title":"Statistical Inference in Dynamic Economic Models","author":"Koopmans","year":"1950"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref64","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1907567"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref57","volume-title":"Three Essays on the State of Economic Science","author":"Koopmans","year":"1957"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref58","volume-title":"Theory of Econometrics: An Introductory Exposition of Econometric Methods","author":"Koutsoyiannis","year":"1973"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref61","first-page":"1","article-title":"Theoretical assumptions and non-observed facts","volume":"61","author":"Leontief","year":"1971","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref62","volume-title":"Econometric Techniques and Problems","author":"Leser","year":"1966"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref63","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3866047"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref65","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1909975"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref66","first-page":"50","volume-title":"The Econometrics of Price Determination Conference","author":"Lucas","year":"1972"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref68","first-page":"1","article-title":"After Keynesian macroeconomics","volume":"3","author":"Lucas","year":"1979","journal-title":"Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref71","unstructured":"Marschak J . (1946) Quantitative Studies in Economic Behaviour (Foundations of Rational Economic Policy). Report to the Rockefeller Foundation, Rockefeller Archive Centre."},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref75","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1925626"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref76","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-6419.1987.tb00022.x"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref81","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.oep.a041923"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref20","volume-title":"Econometrics: Statistical Foundations and Applications","author":"Dhrymes","year":"1970"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref77","first-page":"30","volume-title":"Surveys in Econometrics","author":"Pagan","year":"1995"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref79","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2230205"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref80","volume-title":"Econometrics: A View from the Toolroom","author":"Phillips","year":"1977"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref83","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0266466600006836"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref84","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1215\/00182702-1158763"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref86","unstructured":"Qin D . (2014) Inextricability of autonomy and confluence in econometrics, SOAS Department of Economics Working Paper Series, No. 189, The School of Oriental and African Studies."},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref91","volume-title":"Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics","author":"Spanos","year":"2006"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref94","unstructured":"Theil H . (1953) Estimation and simultaneous correlation in complete equation systems. Centraal Planbureau, (Mimeographed)."},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref95","volume-title":"Principles of Econometrics","author":"Theil","year":"1971"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref97","volume-title":"Econometrics","author":"Tinbergen","year":"1951"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref99","unstructured":"Tobin J . (1955) Multiple Probit Regression of Dichotomous Economic Variables. Cowles Foundation Discussion paper no. 1."},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref14","unstructured":"Christ C.F . (1952b) A test of an econometric model for the United States, 1921\u20131947. CowlesCommission Papers, New Series No. 49."},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref100","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1907382"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1907386"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref105","volume-title":"Topics in Applied Econometrics","author":"Wallis","year":"1973"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref106","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1909638"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref108","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2342961"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref110","volume-title":"Econometrics","author":"Wonnacott","year":"1970"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref113","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1962.10480664"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref114","volume-title":"An Introduction to Bayesian Inference in Econometrics","author":"Zellner","year":"1971"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1907565"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref90","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1536-7150.1973.tb03157.x"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1905714"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref70","volume-title":"Statistical Methods in Econometrics","author":"Malinvaud","year":"1966"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref69","volume-title":"Econometrics","author":"Maddala","year":"1977"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-642-61644-0"},{"key":"S0266466614000309_ref109","volume-title":"Demand Analysis: A Study in Econometrics","author":"Wold","year":"1953"}],"container-title":["Econometric Theory"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S0266466614000309","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,28]],"date-time":"2024-05-28T02:53:18Z","timestamp":1716864798000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S0266466614000309\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2014,6,27]]},"references-count":114,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2015,4]]}},"alternative-id":["S0266466614000309"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s0266466614000309","relation":{},"ISSN":["0266-4666","1469-4360"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0266-4666","type":"print"},{"value":"1469-4360","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2014,6,27]]}}}