{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,18]],"date-time":"2026-01-18T03:02:54Z","timestamp":1768705374265,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":0,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2001,3,1]],"date-time":"2001-03-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":983404800000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":90,"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/terms"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Epidemiol. Infect."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2000,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>The prevention of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS), as a complication of rubella infection \nduring pregnancy, is the main aim of rubella vaccination programmes. However, as vaccination \nof infants leads to an increase in the average age at which those who were not immunized \nbecome infected, certain rubella vaccination programmes can lead to an increase in the \nincidence of CRS. In this paper we use a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of \nrubella virus to investigate the likely impact of different vaccination policies in Europe. The \nmodel was able to capture pre-and post-vaccination patterns of infection and prevalence of \nserological markers under a wide variety of scenarios, suggesting that the model structure and \nparameter estimates were appropriate. Analytical and numerical results suggest that endemic \ncirculation of rubella is unlikely in Finland, the United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and \nperhaps Denmark, provided vaccine coverage is uniform across geographical and social groups. \nIn Italy and Germany vaccine coverage in infancy has not been sufficient to interrupt rubella \ntransmission, and continued epidemics of CRS seem probable. It seems unlikely that the \nimmunization programmes in these countries are doing more harm than good, but this may be \npartly as a result of selective immunization of schoolgirls. Indeed, in both these countries, \nselective vaccination of schoolgirls with inadequate vaccination histories is likely to be an \nimportant mechanism by which CRS incidence is suppressed (unlike the other countries, which \nhave had sufficiently high infant coverage rates to withdraw this option). Reducing inequalities \nin the uptake of rubella vaccine may bring greater health benefits than increasing the mean \nlevel of coverage.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0950268800004660","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2002,7,27]],"date-time":"2002-07-27T13:23:42Z","timestamp":1027776222000},"page":"617-634","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":50,"title":["Modelling rubella in Europe"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"125","author":[{"given":"W. J.","family":"EDMUNDS","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"O. G.","family":"VAN DE HEIJDEN","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"M.","family":"EEROLA","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"N. J.","family":"GAY","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2001,3,1]]},"container-title":["Epidemiology and Infection"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S0950268800004660","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2019,5,8]],"date-time":"2019-05-08T19:48:49Z","timestamp":1557344929000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S0950268800004660\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2000,12]]},"references-count":0,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2000,12]]}},"alternative-id":["S0950268800004660"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s0950268800004660","relation":{},"ISSN":["0950-2688","1469-4409"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0950-2688","type":"print"},{"value":"1469-4409","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2000,12]]}}}