{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,18]],"date-time":"2026-08-18T13:43:15Z","timestamp":1787060595067,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":21,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2006,11,23]],"date-time":"2006-11-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1164240000000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/terms"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Epidemiol. Infect."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2007,5]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>SUMMARY<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Although pneumonic plague is listed by the Centers of Disease Control in the leading \u2018critical biological agents\u2019, very few studies exist on this subject. In this study, a mathematical compartment model was used to describe the geographical and temporal spread of an epidemic of pneumonic plague following its use as a biological weapon. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed in order to assess the key parameters for the control of an outbreak in France. If interventions were taken 10 days after an attack, a reference scenario of 1000 index cases in Paris would lead to 2500 deaths. The results of the study indicate that the rapidity of onset of interventions has the largest effect on the final size of the epidemic, followed by wearing masks, treating contacts preventively and quarantine. Limiting inter-regional mixing does little to reduce casualties, although it does confine them to a single region.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0950268806007345","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2006,11,23]],"date-time":"2006-11-23T07:53:44Z","timestamp":1164268424000},"page":"733-739","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Modelling outbreak control for pneumonic plague"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"135","author":[{"given":"L.","family":"MASSIN","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"J.","family":"LEGRAND","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"A.\u00a0J.","family":"VALLERON","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"A.","family":"FLAHAULT","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2006,11,23]]},"reference":[{"key":"S0950268806007345_ref006","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268803001390"},{"key":"S0950268806007345_ref002","volume-title":"Plague manual: epidemiology, distribution, surveillance and control","author":"Dennis","year":"1999"},{"key":"S0950268806007345_ref014","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.4780071107"},{"key":"S0950268806007345_ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"436","DOI":"10.1086\/318513","article-title":"A Plague on your city: observations from TOPOFF","volume":"32","author":"Inglesby","year":"2001","journal-title":"Clinical Infectious Diseases"},{"key":"S0950268806007345_ref001","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.283.17.2281"},{"key":"S0950268806007345_ref009","first-page":"90","article-title":"A pneumonic plague epidemic in Tananarive in October 1923 [in French]","volume":"22","author":"Augagneur","year":"1924","journal-title":"Annales de M\u00e9decine et de Pharmacie Coloniales"},{"key":"S0950268806007345_ref008","first-page":"38","article-title":"A note on the plague epidemic in Senegal in 1914 [in French]","volume":"19","author":"Collomb","year":"1921","journal-title":"Annales de M\u00e9decine et de Pharmacie Coloniales"},{"key":"S0950268806007345_ref017","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/250726a0"},{"key":"S0950268806007345_ref015","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2000.1272"},{"key":"S0950268806007345_ref005","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1004.030509"},{"key":"S0950268806007345_ref013","first-page":"350","volume-title":"The Mathematical Theory of Infectious Diseases and its Applications","author":"Bailey","year":"1975"},{"key":"S0950268806007345_ref007","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1403510"},{"key":"S0950268806007345_ref019","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid0401.980114"},{"key":"S0950268806007345_ref020","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.10.7.599"},{"key":"S0950268806007345_ref012","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(99)05163-6"},{"key":"S0950268806007345_ref021","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/82.1.52"},{"key":"S0950268806007345_ref018","volume-title":"A Treatise on Pneumonic Plague","author":"Lien-The","year":"1926"},{"key":"S0950268806007345_ref011","first-page":"734","volume-title":"Vaccines","author":"Titball","year":"1999"},{"key":"S0950268806007345_ref016","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/35038073"},{"key":"S0950268806007345_ref010","first-page":"379","article-title":"The pneumonic plague epidemic in Tananarive, June\u2013July 1921 [in French]","volume":"19","author":"Allain","year":"1921","journal-title":"Annales de M\u00e9decine et de Pharmacie Coloniales"},{"key":"S0950268806007345_ref004","unstructured":"4.\u00a0U.S. Department of Homeland Security (http:\/\/www.fema.gov\/nwz03\/nwz03_topoff2.shtm). Accessed 2004."}],"container-title":["Epidemiology and Infection"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S0950268806007345","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2019,5,1]],"date-time":"2019-05-01T18:56:13Z","timestamp":1556736973000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S0950268806007345\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2006,11,23]]},"references-count":21,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2007,7]]}},"alternative-id":["S0950268806007345"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s0950268806007345","relation":{},"ISSN":["0950-2688","1469-4409"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0950-2688","type":"print"},{"value":"1469-4409","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2006,11,23]]}}}