{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,19]],"date-time":"2026-02-19T00:22:40Z","timestamp":1771460560433,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":28,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2011,7,27]],"date-time":"2011-07-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1311724800000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/terms"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Epidemiol. Infect."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2012,5]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>SUMMARY<\/jats:title><jats:p>The monthly and annual incidence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in China for 2004\u20132009 was analysed in conjunction with associated geographical and demographic data. We applied the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to fit and forecast monthly HFRS incidence in China. HFRS was endemic in most regions of China except Hainan Province. There was a high risk of infection for male farmers aged 30\u201350 years. The fitted SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)<jats:sub>12<\/jats:sub> model had a root-mean-square-error criterion of 0\u00b70133 that indicated accurate forecasts were possible. These findings have practical applications for more effective HFRS control and prevention. The conducted SARIMA model may have applications as a decision support tool in HFRS control and risk-management planning programmes.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0950268811001063","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2011,7,27]],"date-time":"2011-07-27T06:39:07Z","timestamp":1311748747000},"page":"851-857","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":28,"title":["Prevalence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in mainland China: analysis of National Surveillance Data, 2004\u20132009"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"140","author":[{"given":"X.","family":"LIU","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"B.","family":"JIANG","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"P.","family":"BI","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"W.","family":"YANG","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Q.","family":"LIU","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2011,7,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref021","first-page":"675","article-title":"Epidemiology and surveillance programs on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Mainland China, 2005\u20132008","volume":"31","author":"Wang","year":"2010","journal-title":"Chinese Journal of Epidemiology"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref001","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a009769"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref025","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a117183"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref004","first-page":"466","article-title":"The epidemic characteristics and preventive measures of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China","volume":"25","author":"Zhang","year":"2004","journal-title":"Chinese Journal of Epidemiology"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref027","first-page":"839","article-title":"Appling grey swing model to predict the incidence trend of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Shenyang","volume":"37","author":"Guo","year":"2008","journal-title":"Journal of China Medical University"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref005","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1159\/000067924"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref024","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/152.1.137"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref006","first-page":"97","article-title":"Hantavirus: an overview","volume":"52","author":"Simmons","year":"2002","journal-title":"Comparative Medicine"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref007","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1309.061481"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref011","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/10.1.87"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref018","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/TAC.1974.1100705"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"129","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2004.71.129","article-title":"Development of a predictive model for Ross river virus disease in Brisbane, Australia","volume":"71","author":"Hu","year":"2004","journal-title":"American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref013","first-page":"327","article-title":"Use of time-series analysis in infectious disease surveillance","volume":"76","author":"Allard","year":"1998","journal-title":"Bulletin of the World Health Organization"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref022","first-page":"465","article-title":"Epidemiological analysis of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and control status","volume":"8","author":"Yan","year":"2008","journal-title":"China Tropical Medicine"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref002","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268800054418"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref008","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-6-77"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref010","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1476-072X-3-11"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref017","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/WR013i003p00567"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref020","first-page":"307","article-title":"Epidemiological analysis of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China from 2004 to 2005","volume":"22","author":"Wang","year":"2007","journal-title":"Disease Surveillance"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref026","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4757-3261-0"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref009","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid0804.000413"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref019","volume-title":"Forecasting: Methods and Application","author":"Makridakes","year":"1998"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref003","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1512.081078"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref023","first-page":"359","article-title":"Analysis on the epidemic of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China from 1991 to 2005","volume":"13","author":"Guo","year":"2007","journal-title":"Preventive Medicine Tribune"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref012","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/20.3.808"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref015","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-7-76"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref028","first-page":"223","article-title":"Prediction for incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome with back propagation artificial neural network model","volume":"17","author":"Wu","year":"2006","journal-title":"Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control"},{"key":"S0950268811001063_ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"933","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2008.79.933","article-title":"Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil","volume":"79","author":"Luz","year":"2008","journal-title":"American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene"}],"container-title":["Epidemiology and Infection"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S0950268811001063","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2019,4,25]],"date-time":"2019-04-25T18:20:00Z","timestamp":1556216400000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S0950268811001063\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2011,7,27]]},"references-count":28,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2012,5]]}},"alternative-id":["S0950268811001063"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s0950268811001063","relation":{},"ISSN":["0950-2688","1469-4409"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0950-2688","type":"print"},{"value":"1469-4409","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2011,7,27]]}}}