{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,15]],"date-time":"2026-10-15T00:07:10Z","timestamp":1792022830353,"version":"4.4.0"},"reference-count":27,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2012,9,19]],"date-time":"2012-09-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1348012800000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/terms"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Epidemiol. Infect."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2013,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>SUMMARY<\/jats:title><jats:p>Meningococcal meningitis is a major public health problem in the African Belt. Despite the obvious seasonality of epidemics, the factors driving them are still poorly understood. Here, we provide a first attempt to predict epidemics at the spatio-temporal scale required for in-year response, using a purely empirical approach. District-level weekly incidence rates for Niger (1986\u20132007) were discretized into latent, alert and epidemic states according to pre-specified epidemiological thresholds. We modelled the probabilities of transition between states, accounting for seasonality and spatio-temporal dependence. One-week-ahead predictions for entering the epidemic state were generated with specificity and negative predictive value &gt;99%, sensitivity and positive predictive value &gt;72%. On the annual scale, we predict the first entry of a district into the epidemic state with sensitivity 65\u00b70%, positive predictive value 49\u00b70%, and an average time gained of 4\u00b76 weeks. These results could inform decisions on preparatory actions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0950268812001926","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2012,9,21]],"date-time":"2012-09-21T09:50:43Z","timestamp":1348221043000},"page":"1764-1771","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":10,"title":["A multi-state spatio-temporal Markov model for categorized incidence of meningitis in sub-Saharan Africa"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"141","author":[{"given":"L.","family":"AGIER","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"M.","family":"STANTON","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"G.","family":"SOGA","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"P. J.","family":"DIGGLE","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2012,9,19]]},"reference":[{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"639","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.3828","article-title":"A nonstationary Markov transition model for computing the relative risk of dementia before death","volume":"29","author":"Yu","year":"2010","journal-title":"Statistics in Medicine"},{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1609.100510"},{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(01)05484-8"},{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-3156.2006.01630.x"},{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(07)70288-8"},{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10928-009-9148-2"},{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/500511"},{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0035-9203(02)90089-1"},{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jir623"},{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4081\/gh.2010.190"},{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2009.08.013"},{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1476-072X-6-29"},{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(99)03366-8"},{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0035-9203(99)90106-2"},{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0035-9203(88)90459-2"},{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1198\/016214506000001437"},{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"423","DOI":"10.1002\/env.712","article-title":"Point process methodology for on-line spatio-temporal disease surveillance","volume":"16","author":"Rowlingson","year":"2005","journal-title":"Environmetrics"},{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.3440"},{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268811001385"},{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2006.03.034"},{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref1","first-page":"114","article-title":"Cerebrospinal meningitis in Africa [in French]","volume":"28","author":"Lapeyssonnie","year":"1963","journal-title":"Bulletin of the World Health Organization"},{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/env.889"},{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref17","first-page":"93","article-title":"Statistical analysis of time series: some recent developments","volume":"8","author":"Cox","year":"1981","journal-title":"Scandinavian Journal of Statistics"},{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref10","first-page":"38","article-title":"Detecting meningococcal meningitis epidemics in highly-endemic African countries","year":"2000","journal-title":"Weekly Epidemiological Report"},{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref16","first-page":"80","article-title":"Enhanced surveillance of epidemic meningococcal meningitis in Africa: a three-year experience","year":"2005","journal-title":"Weekly Epidemiological Report"},{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/21.1.155"},{"key":"S0950268812001926_ref15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198524847.001.0001","volume-title":"Analysis of Longitudinal Data","author":"Diggle","year":"2002"}],"container-title":["Epidemiology and Infection"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S0950268812001926","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,29]],"date-time":"2024-04-29T17:03:31Z","timestamp":1714410211000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S0950268812001926\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2012,9,19]]},"references-count":27,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2013,8]]}},"alternative-id":["S0950268812001926"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s0950268812001926","relation":{},"ISSN":["0950-2688","1469-4409"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0950-2688","type":"print"},{"value":"1469-4409","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2012,9,19]]}}}