{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,13]],"date-time":"2026-02-13T15:57:10Z","timestamp":1770998230025,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":27,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","issue":"14","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2015,2,23]],"date-time":"2015-02-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1424649600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/terms"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.cambridge.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Epidemiol. Infect."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2015,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>SUMMARY<\/jats:title><jats:p>This paper examines the geographical impact of the British Government's wartime evacuation scheme on notified rates of two common acute childhood diseases (scarlet fever and diphtheria) in the 1470 local government districts of England and Wales, 1939\u20131945. Drawing on the notifications of communicable diseases collated by the General Register Office (GRO), we establish pre-war (baseline) disease rates for the 1470 districts. For the war years, techniques of binary logistic regression analysis are used to assess the associations between (<jats:italic>a<\/jats:italic>) above-baseline (\u2018raised\u2019) disease rates in evacuation, neutral and reception districts and (<jats:italic>b<\/jats:italic>) the major phases of the evacuation scheme. The analysis demonstrates that the evacuation was temporally associated with distinct national and regional effects on notified levels of disease activity. These effects were most pronounced in the early years of the dispersal (1939\u20131941) and corresponded with initial levels of evacuation-related population change at the regional and district scales.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0950268815000175","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,2,23]],"date-time":"2015-02-23T09:03:58Z","timestamp":1424682238000},"page":"2923-2938","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/policypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Operation Pied Piper: a geographical reappraisal of the impact of wartime evacuation on scarlet fever and diphtheria rates in England and Wales, 1939\u20131945"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"143","author":[{"given":"M. R.","family":"SMALLMAN-RAYNOR","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"A. D.","family":"CLIFF","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,2,23]]},"reference":[{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref3","first-page":"629","article-title":"Epidemiological aspects of evacuation","volume":"1","author":"Glover","year":"1940","journal-title":"British Medical Journal"},{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref5","unstructured":"Ministry of Health. On the state of the public health during six years of war. London: HMSO, 1946."},{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref27","first-page":"232","article-title":"The recent trend of diphtheria in England and Wales","volume":"7","author":"Martin","year":"1948","journal-title":"Monthly Bulletin of the Ministry of Health and the Public Health Laboratory Service"},{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref18","volume-title":"Controlling Communicable Disease","author":"Noah","year":"2006"},{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.1.4130.333"},{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref4","unstructured":"Titmuss RM . History of the Second World War, United Kingdom Civil Series: Problems of social policy. London: HMSO, 1950."},{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref14","first-page":"934","article-title":"Measles: precautionary measures in reception areas","volume":"2","year":"1939","journal-title":"British Medical Journal"},{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref24","unstructured":"Ministry of Health. Report of the Ministry of Health for the year ended 31st March 1946, including the report of the Chief Medical Officer on the state of the public health for the year ended 31st December 1945. London: HMSO, 1947."},{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref17","unstructured":"Registrar-General for England and Wales. The Registrar-General's statistical review of England and Wales for the Year 1939 (New Annual Series, No. 19). Tables. Part I. Medical. London: HMSO, 1944."},{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/jhge.2002.0417"},{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref9","first-page":"201","article-title":"Epidemiological aspects of the A.R.P. evacuation schemes","volume":"61","author":"Forrest","year":"1939","journal-title":"Medical Officer"},{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2980435"},{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.2.4169.747"},{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/9781118548387"},{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref13","unstructured":"National Register. National Register, United Kingdom and Isle of Man. Statistics of Population on 29th September 1939 by sex, age and marital condition. Report and Tables. London: HMSO, 1944."},{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref11","first-page":"399","article-title":"Evacuation: some epidemiological observations on the first four months","volume":"33","author":"Glover","year":"1939","journal-title":"Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine, Section of Epidemiology and State Medicine"},{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref8","first-page":"605","article-title":"Town into country","volume":"2","year":"1939","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2980120"},{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref10","first-page":"192","article-title":"Epidemiological aspects of the A.R.P. evacuation schemes","volume":"61","author":"Thompson","year":"1939","journal-title":"Medical Officer"},{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(00)61802-0"},{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.2.4167.677"},{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/26.6.1323"},{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref7","first-page":"174","article-title":"Epidemiological aspects of the A.R.P. evacuation schemes","volume":"61","year":"1939","journal-title":"Medical Officer"},{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref19","unstructured":"Russell WT . The epidemiology of diphtheria during the last forty years. Medical Research Council Special Report Series, No. 247. London: HMSO, 1943."},{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref16","volume-title":"Atlas of Epidemic Britain: A Twentieth Century Picture","author":"Smallman-Raynor","year":"2012"},{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/15.1.22"},{"key":"S0950268815000175_ref25","first-page":"792","article-title":"Epidemiological notes: infectious diseases and evacuation","volume":"2","year":"1939","journal-title":"British Medical Journal"}],"container-title":["Epidemiology and Infection"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S0950268815000175","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2019,4,20]],"date-time":"2019-04-20T19:26:05Z","timestamp":1555788365000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S0950268815000175\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2015,2,23]]},"references-count":27,"journal-issue":{"issue":"14","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2015,10]]}},"alternative-id":["S0950268815000175"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s0950268815000175","relation":{},"ISSN":["0950-2688","1469-4409"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0950-2688","type":"print"},{"value":"1469-4409","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2015,2,23]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Copyright \u00a9 Cambridge University Press 2015\u00a0","name":"license","label":"License","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}}]}}