{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,30]],"date-time":"2026-10-30T00:01:22Z","timestamp":1793318482428,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":28,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2015,6,1]],"date-time":"2015-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1433116800000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/terms"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.cambridge.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Epidemiol. Infect."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>SUMMARY<\/jats:title><jats:p>Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is an infectious disease caused by enteroviruses, which usually occurs in children aged &lt;5 years. In China, the HFMD situation is worsening, with increasing number of cases nationwide. Therefore, monitoring and predicting HFMD incidence are urgently needed to make control measures more effective. In this study, we applied an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast HFMD incidence in Sichuan province, China. HFMD infection data from January 2010 to June 2014 were used to fit the ARIMA model. The coefficient of determination (<jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic><jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>), normalized Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and mean absolute percentage of error (MAPE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the constructed models. The fitted ARIMA model was applied to forecast the incidence of HMFD from April to June 2014. The goodness-of-fit test generated the optimum general multiplicative seasonal ARIMA (1,0,1) \u00d7 (0,1,0)<jats:sub>12<\/jats:sub> model (<jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic><jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup> = 0\u00b7692, MAPE = 15\u00b7982, BIC = 5\u00b7265), which also showed non-significant autocorrelations in the residuals of the model (<jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic> = 0\u00b7893). The forecast incidence values of the ARIMA (1,0,1) \u00d7 (0,1,0)<jats:sub>12<\/jats:sub> model from July to December 2014 were 4103\u20139987, which were proximate forecasts. The ARIMA model could be applied to forecast HMFD incidence trend and provide support for HMFD prevention and control. Further observations should be carried out continually into the time sequence, and the parameters of the models could be adjusted because HMFD incidence will not be absolutely stationary in the future.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0950268815001144","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,6,1]],"date-time":"2015-06-01T05:08:30Z","timestamp":1433135310000},"page":"144-151","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/policypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":84,"title":["Predicting the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Sichuan province, China using the ARIMA model"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"144","author":[{"given":"L.","family":"LIU","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"R. 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P.","family":"ZHU","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Q.","family":"L\u00dc","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,6,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"S0950268815001144_ref15","first-page":"676","article-title":"Epidemiological features of hand foot and mouth disease in China, 2008\u20132009","volume":"32","author":"Chang","year":"2011","journal-title":"China Journal of Epidemiology"},{"key":"S0950268815001144_ref28","first-page":"910","article-title":"Application of panel data model in the study of the relationship between reported hand-foot-mouth morbidity and temperature","volume":"12","author":"Feng","year":"2013","journal-title":"Chinese Preventive Medicine"},{"key":"S0950268815001144_ref27","first-page":"37","article-title":"Multiple linear regression analysis of hand, foot and mouth diseases and the meteorological factors","volume":"3","author":"Zhu","year":"2013","journal-title":"Zhejiang Preventive Medicine"},{"key":"S0950268815001144_ref21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1472-6963-5-36"},{"key":"S0950268815001144_ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3748\/wjg.v10.i24.3579"},{"key":"S0950268815001144_ref22","first-page":"547","article-title":"A time series model in incidence forecasting of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome","volume":"46","author":"Li","year":"2008","journal-title":"Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences)"},{"key":"S0950268815001144_ref14","volume-title":"Forecasting and Time Series: An Applied Approach","author":"Bowerman"},{"key":"S0950268815001144_ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1476-072X-8-1"},{"key":"S0950268815001144_ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01446190500204911"},{"key":"S0950268815001144_ref9","first-page":"396","article-title":"Prediction of monthly hand foot and mouth disease incidence in China by using autoregressive integrated moving average model","volume":"28","author":"Huang","year":"2013","journal-title":"Disease Surveillance"},{"key":"S0950268815001144_ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4103\/0970-0218.143024"},{"key":"S0950268815001144_ref12","volume-title":"The Analysis of Time Series: Theory and Practice","author":"Chatfield"},{"key":"S0950268815001144_ref17","first-page":"507","article-title":"Prediction of malaria incidence in malaria epidemic area with time series models","volume":"25","author":"Liang","year":"2004","journal-title":"Journal of the Fourth Military Medical University"},{"key":"S0950268815001144_ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"120","DOI":"10.3346\/jkms.2013.28.1.120","article-title":"Risk factors for neurologic complications of hand, foot and mouth disease in the Republic of Korea, 2009","volume":"28","author":"Seong","year":"2013","journal-title":"Journal of Korean Medical Science"},{"key":"S0950268815001144_ref18","first-page":"90","article-title":"Temporal patterns and forecast of dengue infection in northeastern Thailand","volume":"39","author":"Silawan","year":"2008","journal-title":"The Southeast Asian Journal of Tropical Medicine and Public Health"},{"key":"S0950268815001144_ref5","first-page":"333","article-title":"Applying linear regression statistical method to predict the epidemic of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome","volume":"17","author":"Wang","year":"2006","journal-title":"Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control"},{"key":"S0950268815001144_ref11","first-page":"250","volume-title":"The Course of Statistical Analysis with SPSS. 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