{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,18]],"date-time":"2026-05-18T05:09:11Z","timestamp":1779080951098,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":17,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2015,11,16]],"date-time":"2015-11-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1447632000000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.cambridge.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Epidemiol. Infect."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,5]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>SUMMARY<\/jats:title><jats:p>The first large outbreak of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) with severe complications primarily caused by enterovirus 71 was reported in Taiwan in 1998. Surveillance of HFMD to evaluate the spread of HFMD with and without infection control policy is needed. We developed a new dynamic epidemic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to fit the surveillance data on containing valuable information on the severity of HFMD in order to accurately estimate the basic reproductive number (<jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic><jats:sub>0<\/jats:sub>) of HFMD. After fitting the empirical data, in conjunction with other relevant parameters extracted from the literature, the estimated transmission coefficients were close to 5 \u00d7 10<jats:sup>\u22127<\/jats:sup> (per day) and the proportion of severe HFMD cases ranged between 0 and 0\u00b70036 (per day). Taking into account the distribution of all parameters considered in our dynamic epidemic model, the <jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic><jats:sub>0<\/jats:sub> computed was 1\u00b737 (95% confidence interval 0\u00b724\u20135\u00b784), suggesting a higher likelihood of the spread of HFMD if no infection control policy is provided. The isolation strategy against the spread of HFMD not only delayed the epidemic peak with the delayed time ranging from 4 weeks for only 20% isolation to 47 weeks for 100% isolation but also reduced total number of HFMD cases with the percentage of reduction ranging from 1\u00b73% for only 20% isolation to 13\u00b73% for 100% isolation. The proposed model can also be flexible for evaluating the effectiveness of two other possible policies for containing HFMD, quarantine and vaccination (if the vaccine can be developed).<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0950268815002630","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,11,16]],"date-time":"2015-11-16T04:07:03Z","timestamp":1447646823000},"page":"1500-1511","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/policypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":30,"title":["A dynamic model for the outbreaks of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Taiwan"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"144","author":[{"given":"C.-C.","family":"LAI","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"D.-S.","family":"JIANG","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"H.-M.","family":"WU","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"H.-H.","family":"CHEN","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,11,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"S0950268815002630_ref6","first-page":"205","article-title":"Enterovirus 71: the virus, its infections and outbreaks","volume":"33","author":"Ho","year":"2000","journal-title":"Journal of Microbiology, Immunology and Infection"},{"key":"S0950268815002630_ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/497076"},{"key":"S0950268815002630_ref13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.291.2.222"},{"key":"S0950268815002630_ref9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"929","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM199909233411301","article-title":"An epidemic of enterovirus 71 infection in Taiwan","volume":"341","author":"Monto Ho","year":"1999","journal-title":"New England Journal of Medicine"},{"key":"S0950268815002630_ref17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/INF.0b013e3182116e95"},{"key":"S0950268815002630_ref10","author":"Diekmann","year":"2000","journal-title":"Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases: Model Building, Analysis and Interpretation"},{"key":"S0950268815002630_ref1","first-page":"655","volume-title":"Enteroviruses: Polioviruses, Coxsackieviruses, Echoviruses, and Newer Enteroviruses","author":"Melnick","year":"1996"},{"key":"S0950268815002630_ref15","volume-title":"Control of Communicable Disease Manual","author":"Heymann","year":"2004"},{"key":"S0950268815002630_ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7547\/87507315-86-6-257"},{"key":"S0950268815002630_ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1542\/peds.109.6.e88"},{"key":"S0950268815002630_ref12","unstructured":"R.O.C. (Taiwan) DoH. Taiwan Public Health Reports. Taiwan; 2000, 2001, 2005, 2008."},{"key":"S0950268815002630_ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/129.3.304"},{"key":"S0950268815002630_ref14","first-page":"965","article-title":"An outbreak of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Singapore","volume":"60","author":"Goh","year":"1982","journal-title":"Bulletin of the World Health Organization"},{"key":"S0950268815002630_ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/00006454-199912000-00013"},{"key":"S0950268815002630_ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1386-6532(00)00068-8"},{"key":"S0950268815002630_ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid0903.020285"},{"key":"S0950268815002630_ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1386-6532(01)00214-1"}],"container-title":["Epidemiology and Infection"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S0950268815002630","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2019,4,19]],"date-time":"2019-04-19T15:07:03Z","timestamp":1555686423000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S0950268815002630\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2015,11,16]]},"references-count":17,"journal-issue":{"issue":"7","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,5]]}},"alternative-id":["S0950268815002630"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s0950268815002630","relation":{},"ISSN":["0950-2688","1469-4409"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0950-2688","type":"print"},{"value":"1469-4409","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2015,11,16]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Copyright \u00a9 Cambridge University Press 2015\u00a0This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.","name":"license","label":"License","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}}]}}