{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,24]],"date-time":"2025-09-24T08:45:15Z","timestamp":1758703515122,"version":"3.37.3"},"reference-count":23,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2015,12,8]],"date-time":"2015-12-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1449532800000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.cambridge.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Epidemiol. Infect."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>SUMMARY<\/jats:title><jats:p>Three epidemic waves of human influenza A(H7N9) were documented in several different provinces in China between 2013 and 2015. With limited understanding of the potential for human-to-human transmission, it was difficult to implement control measures efficiently or to inform the public adequately about the application of interventions. In this study, the human-to-human transmission rate for the epidemics that occurred between 2013 and 2015 in Zhejiang Province, China, was analysed. The reproduction number (<jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic>), a key indicator of transmission intensity, was estimated by fitting the number of infections from poultry to humans and from humans to humans into a mathematical model. The posterior mean <jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic> for human-to-human transmission was estimated to be 0\u00b727, with a 95% credible interval of 0\u00b714\u20130\u00b744 for the first wave, whereas the posterior mean <jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic>s decreased to 0\u00b715 in the second and third waves. Overall, these estimates indicate that a human H7N9 pandemic is unlikely to occur in Zhejiang. The reductions in the viral transmissibility and the number of poultry-transmitted infections after the first epidemic may be attributable to the various intervention measures taken, including changes in the extent of closures of live poultry markets.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0950268815002812","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,12,9]],"date-time":"2015-12-09T08:45:40Z","timestamp":1449650740000},"page":"1584-1591","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/policypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Interpreting the transmissibility of the avian influenza A(H7N9) infection from 2013 to 2015 in Zhejiang Province, China"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"144","author":[{"given":"K. C.","family":"CHONG","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"X.","family":"WANG","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"S.","family":"LIU","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"J.","family":"CAI","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"X.","family":"SU","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7238-845X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"B. C.","family":"ZEE","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"G.","family":"TAM","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"M. H.","family":"WANG","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"E.","family":"CHEN","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,12,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"S0950268815002812_ref8","unstructured":"Kucharski A , Distinguishing between reservoir exposure and human-to-human transmission for emerging pathogens using case onset data. PLoS Current Outbreaks. Published online 7 March 2014. doi:10.1371\/currents.outbreaks.e1473d9bfc99d 080ca242139a06c455f."},{"key":"S0950268815002812_ref10","unstructured":"National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China. Chinese guideline of diagnosis and treatment for human infections with the avian influenza A(H7N9) virus (2nd edn, 2013) (http:\/\/www.nhfpc.gov.cn\/yzygj\/s3585u\/201304\/7e2ad4cdf98b4e2285eab1c15ded8370.shtml). Accessed 29 December 2014."},{"volume-title":"Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases: Model Building, Analysis and Interpretation","year":"2000","author":"Diekmann","key":"S0950268815002812_ref14"},{"key":"S0950268815002812_ref22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/ncomms5116"},{"key":"S0950268815002812_ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1742-4682-10-30"},{"key":"S0950268815002812_ref17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-12-309"},{"key":"S0950268815002812_ref23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2011.140556"},{"key":"S0950268815002812_ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/srep04846"},{"key":"S0950268815002812_ref2","unstructured":"World Health Organization. Global Alert and Response (GAR). Human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus\u00a0\u2013\u00a0update, 11 August 2013. (http:\/\/www.who.int\/csr\/don\/2013_08_11\/en\/). Accessed 2 January 2015."},{"key":"S0950268815002812_ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph120201560"},{"key":"S0950268815002812_ref5","unstructured":"World Health Organization. WHO risk assessment of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus, 2 October 2014 (http:\/\/www.who.int\/influenza\/human_animal_interface\/influenza_h7n9\/riskassessment_h7n9_2Oct14.pdf). Accessed 2 January 2015."},{"key":"S0950268815002812_ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1741-7015-11-214"},{"key":"S0950268815002812_ref13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspa.1927.0118"},{"key":"S0950268815002812_ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2014.02.038"},{"key":"S0950268815002812_ref15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Vong S . Editorial commentary: some perspectives regarding risk factors for A(H7N9) influenza virus infection in humans. Clinical Infectious Diseases 2014; 59: 795\u2013797.","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/ciu424"},{"key":"S0950268815002812_ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2807\/1560-7917.ES2014.19.25.20838"},{"key":"S0950268815002812_ref11","unstructured":"National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China. Chinese guideline of diagnosis and treatment for human infections with the avian influenza A(H7N9) virus (2014 edition) (http:\/\/www.nhfpc.gov.cn\/yzygj\/s3593g\/201401\/3f69fe196ecb4cfc8a2d6d96182f8b22.shtml). Accessed 29 December 2014."},{"key":"S0950268815002812_ref21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(13)61904-2"},{"key":"S0950268815002812_ref4","unstructured":"World Health Organization. Global Alert and Response (GAR). Human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus\u00a0\u2013\u00a0update, 3 March 2014. (http:\/\/www.who.int\/csr\/don\/2014_03_03\/en\/). Accessed 2 January 2015."},{"key":"S0950268815002812_ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S095026881400257X"},{"key":"S0950268815002812_ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tim.2014.08.008"},{"key":"S0950268815002812_ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0111834"},{"key":"S0950268815002812_ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2807\/1560-7917.ES2013.18.43.20616"}],"container-title":["Epidemiology and Infection"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S0950268815002812","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2019,4,19]],"date-time":"2019-04-19T00:22:48Z","timestamp":1555633368000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S0950268815002812\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2015,12,8]]},"references-count":23,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,6]]}},"alternative-id":["S0950268815002812"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s0950268815002812","relation":{},"ISSN":["0950-2688","1469-4409"],"issn-type":[{"type":"print","value":"0950-2688"},{"type":"electronic","value":"1469-4409"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2015,12,8]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Copyright \u00a9 Cambridge University Press 2015\u00a0This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.","name":"license","label":"License","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}}]}}