{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,1]],"date-time":"2026-10-01T06:13:56Z","timestamp":1790835236390,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":27,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","issue":"12","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,5,11]],"date-time":"2016-05-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1462924800000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/terms"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.cambridge.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Epidemiol. Infect."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>SUMMARY<\/jats:title><jats:p>Epidemiologists agree that there is a prevailing seasonality in the presentation of epidemic waves of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections and influenza. The aim of this study is to quantify the potential relationship between the activity of RSV, with respect to the influenza virus, in order to use the RSV seasonal curve as a predictor of the evolution of an influenza virus epidemic wave. Two statistical tools, logistic regression and time series, are used for predicting the evolution of influenza. Both logistic models and time series of influenza consider RSV information from previous weeks. Data consist of influenza and confirmed RSV cases reported in Comunitat Valenciana (Spain) during the period from week 40 (2010) to week 8 (2014). Binomial logistic regression models used to predict the two states of influenza wave, basal or peak, result in a rate of correct classification higher than 92% with the validation set. When a finer three-states categorization is established, basal, increasing peak and decreasing peak, the multinomial logistic model performs well in 88% of cases of the validation set. The ARMAX model fits well for influenza waves and shows good performance for short-term forecasts up to 3 weeks. The seasonal evolution of influenza virus can be predicted a minimum of 4 weeks in advance using logistic models based on RSV. It would be necessary to study more inter-pandemic seasons to establish a stronger relationship between the epidemic waves of both viruses.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s095026881600090x","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,5,11]],"date-time":"2016-05-11T08:11:41Z","timestamp":1462954301000},"page":"2621-2632","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/policypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":20,"title":["Temporal association between the influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV): RSV as a predictor of seasonal influenza"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"144","author":[{"given":"A.","family":"M\u00cdGUEZ","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"A.","family":"IFTIMI","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"F.","family":"MONTES","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,5,11]]},"reference":[{"key":"S095026881600090X_ref3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S58","DOI":"10.1097\/01.inf.0000108193.91607.34","article-title":"Occurrence of respiratory virus: time, place and person","volume":"23","author":"Monto","year":"2004","journal-title":"Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal"},{"key":"S095026881600090X_ref13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"171","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1010920819831","article-title":"A simple generalisation of the area under the ROC curve for multiple class classification problems","volume":"45","author":"Hand","year":"2001","journal-title":"Machine Learning"},{"key":"S095026881600090X_ref24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"639","DOI":"10.1128\/AAC.05411-11","article-title":"Seasonal variations in Clostridium difficile infections are associated with influenza and respiratory syncytial virus activity independently of antibiotic prescriptions: a time series analysis in Qu\u00e9bec, Canada","volume":"56","author":"Gilca","year":"2012","journal-title":"Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy"},{"key":"S095026881600090X_ref7","unstructured":"General Directorate of Public Health. Regional Ministry of Health. Valencian Autonomous Government. Microbiological Surveillance Network. Epidemiology and Health Surveillance (www.sp.san.gva.es)."},{"key":"S095026881600090X_ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"494","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X10388042","article-title":"Time series model to predict burden of viral respiratory illness on a pediatric intensive care unit","volume":"31","author":"Spaeder","year":"2011","journal-title":"Medical Decision Making"},{"key":"S095026881600090X_ref18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"62","DOI":"10.1016\/j.bjid.2012.09.001","article-title":"Sentinel surveillance of influenza and other respiratory viruses, Brazil, 2000\u20132010","volume":"17","author":"Freitas","year":"2013","journal-title":"Brazilian Journal of Infectious Diseases"},{"key":"S095026881600090X_ref27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1448","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268807000271","article-title":"Invasive pneumococcal and meningococcal disease: association with influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus activity?","volume":"136","author":"Jansen","year":"2008","journal-title":"Epidemiology and Infection"},{"key":"S095026881600090X_ref6","unstructured":"General Directorate of Public Health. Regional Ministry of Health.Valencian Autonomous Government. Analysis of Epidemiological Surveillance (AVE). Mandatory Notification System. Epidemiology and Health Surveillance (www.sp.san.gva.es)."},{"key":"S095026881600090X_ref14","unstructured":"Hyndman, RJ . forecast: forecasting functions for time series and linear models. R package version 4.8, 2013 (http:\/\/CRAN.R-project.org\/package=forecast)."},{"key":"S095026881600090X_ref16","volume-title":"Time Series Analysis and its Applications. With R examples","author":"Shumway","year":"2006"},{"key":"S095026881600090X_ref20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"930","DOI":"10.1097\/EDE.0b013e31826b300e","article-title":"Virus interference and estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness from test-negative studies","volume":"23","author":"Cowling","year":"2012","journal-title":"Epidemiology"},{"key":"S095026881600090X_ref17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"619","DOI":"10.1007\/s10096-007-0351-z","article-title":"Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus in infants and children: relationship with attendance at a pediatric emergency unit and characteristics of the circulating strains","volume":"26","author":"Gasparini","year":"2007","journal-title":"European Journal of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases"},{"key":"S095026881600090X_ref26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"294","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1802.102025","article-title":"Invasive pneumococcal pneumonia and respiratory virus co-infections","volume":"18","author":"Zhou","year":"2012","journal-title":"Emerging Infectious Diseases"},{"key":"S095026881600090X_ref8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1002\/0471249688","volume-title":"Categorical Data Analysis","author":"Agresti","year":"2002"},{"key":"S095026881600090X_ref25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"285","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amjmed.2004.09.016","article-title":"Seasonality of invasive pneumococcal disease: temporal relation to documented influenza and respiratory syncytial viral circulation","volume":"118","author":"Talbot","year":"2005","journal-title":"American Journal of Medicine"},{"key":"S095026881600090X_ref9","volume-title":"Forecasting: Principles and Practice","author":"Hyndman","year":"2014"},{"key":"S095026881600090X_ref12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198509844.001.0001","volume-title":"The Statistical Evaluation of Medical Tests for Classification and Prediction","author":"Pepe","year":"2003"},{"key":"S095026881600090X_ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0054445"},{"key":"S095026881600090X_ref23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S202","DOI":"10.1097\/01.inf.0000144662.86396.07","article-title":"The changing epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus and influenza. 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